Track: Dead (5) - Rail out 9m from the 1600m to the winning post and 5m for the remainder. Upgraded to good after race 2.
1-6 Pentelikon is not the world's most reliable conveyance with only 4 wins from 24 starts but she has filled a place another 10 times. She drops a thousand grades, is very well in at the weights, has drawn well, handles the wet and has a win and 3 placings from 5 goes at the trip. I'm pretty confident that she's a good each-way chance.
4-1 Eremein looks the winner of the Frank Packer Plate at set weights given he's coming off winning the AJC Derby. 2-Magnetism looked impressive last time but that was a much weaker race than the Derby. Hopefully, people will back him and we can get a better price about the top one.
5-8 Fashions Afield is a terrific filly who probably should be unbeaten. Keeps putting in top runs and she'll be an OK price today, as people will back Danger Looms, Under The Floor etc. If she can win this race then she'll take the honours for top 2YO of the season.
7-1 Grand Armee is aiming to become the first horse since the mighty Tulloch over 40 years ago to win the Queen Elizabeth Stakes two years in a row and the ratings say he'll do it with a leg in the air.
8-5 Mahtoum comes into this race off a career high rating that, if he repeats it, will see him add the Sydney Cup to the mantlepiece. His last run was behind Makybe Diva in The BMW when he came from 11th on the corner to run 5th beaten only 6 lengths by the great mare. Finishing behind him in that race were Cups opponents Hugs Dancer, County Tyrone, Another Warrior and Manawa King. Two starts back he also beat Don Raphael and My Chinese King in the Manion Cup when coming from 12th on the corner to win the race so you'd have to think that if there's a danger then it'll be a horse coming through a different formline such as Pantani or Philosophe.
9-4 Striking Victory should be ready to live up to his name today at his 3rd run back from a spell. Distance, track condition, ratings - he gets all the ticks from me. Fourofakind was a short price favourite last time and let supporters down but he'll bounce back and looks a danger.
Moonee Valley
Track: Good - rail in normal position
6-5 Cannyopra had a month off before starting favourite and being beaten at Echuca last time. He gets into this race with no weight and against a field where there are horses with a few convictions. His record of 4 from 27 with 3 placings doesn't look that flash but when you see he was running around as a 3YO in races like the Caulfield Guineas (7th beaten less than 5L) and Victoria Derby you can get a better view of his ability.
Kembla Grange
Track: Good - rail 6m
1-8 Dantain's Quest trialled nicely recently and with the topweight sure to be short I'll take the odds about Gai's horse.
3-9 Stylish Bow won a trial recently and wouldn't need to be much good to feature here.
Morphettville
Track: Good - rail out 10m
3-9 Get To Work started odds-on at its only start at Moonee Valley when beaten by Vault Of Gold. That horse is running around at the Valley today in race 2 so you'll be able to get a guide to the strength of that form.
4-1 Taos Pleasure is very well in here with the claim for Brad Hoppo. He should be able to position near the lead and I expect him to look the winner for a long way. He might start at a short price and I wouldn't be taking less than about $2.30.
Toowoomba
Track: Good - rail true
4-4 Mustang's Mate returns to Toowoomba where he's won 3 from 7. Gets in nicely here.
Belmont
Track: Dead - rail out 6m
3-1 Legend Express has won 5 from 10 starts and looks really well placed in this race at the track, distance and with the weight against these.
1 comment:
Thanks John a bit of value in these
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