Followers of the POOMAs lately would be pretty pleased with a $0.10 win loss and break even result for the place! The thing in the first at Goulburn pulled up short so we never got a run for our money. I took care of No Penalty on the weekend when she went wrong in the run, one of our recent selections lost the jockey and Delta Eagle weighed in light a couple of weeks back and was disqualified (at least he won for us yesterday). The POOMAs should be called the KOD (Kiss Of Death) selections with that attrition rate. Regardless, we unearthed a potential good 'un at Pakenham today when Chic Choice gave them a decent start at the 400m and won by 2L in a hand canter. Pity she only paid $2.60 given I picked her without having any knoweldge of her ability. She is very smart and can be followed through the classes. People may wonder how/why I pick winners in these types of races. Long time followers of Ausrace selections will remember a $30+ first starter win at Goulburn and a variety of other $10+ of the same type. It's also the method that allowed me to single out $28 winner Spinney at Morphettville yesterday (and then not tip it here), which is to have a look at all Maiden races where there are first starters and analyse the ratings achieved by the raced runners. If they are below a certain level then I know the first starters don't need to be outstanding to win. I then look at the breeding of the first starters to determine distance/going/age suitability, which creates a short list. If there is any other information such as barrier trial runs then that obviously comes into consideration but only from stables that use trials for conditioning (such as Waterhouse) rather than experience (such as Hawkes). So there you go, there is a method to the madness. And you just thought I really was picking them out of my arse.
Goulburn 1-5 $0.00 $0.00
Goulburn 4-11 $3.30 $1.30
Goulburn 5-7 $0.00 $0.00
Pakenham 1-8 $0.00 $3.30
Pakenham 4-1 $0.00 $0.00
Pakenham 7-11 $2.60 $1.40
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