SELECTIONS - 30 November 2008

POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])

Geraldton 5-1 Monaco Prince [18]

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Clare 1-2
Geraldton 7-9
Sunshine Coast 8-2
Swan Hill 4-1

(* Any updates for Geraldton later on *)

Comments: Well, I thought our losing streak was over when Pearly Beach dashed to the lead at Toowoomba. The jockey then sat on her like a stale bottle of piss and the one on the inside fought back to win. That means we've had only one winner in our last 19 selections. Geraldton 5-1 Monaco Prince has won his last 3 at this track and his only defeat this preparation came in the city two starts back. Has to lump 59.5kg here so will need everything to go right in order to get home.

Black Book: Canberra 3-11 Spinnrad was first up for 20 months when flogging home from near last for 4th at Randwick. He was entered for Randwick yesterday but scratched in preference to this race and I expect him to go close.

SELECTIONS - 29 November 2008

POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])

Ascot 4-1 Key Biscuit [18]
Gold Coast 7-4 Lord Lujain [7]
Toowoomba 2-3 Pearly Beach [8]

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Ascot 8-1
Eagle Farm 5-20, 8-2
Moonee Valley 1-5
Morphettville 3-2, 6-8
Randwick 1-1

(* Any updates for Western Australia later on *)

Comments: Well, after 656 bets for the year we're a massive $1.90 ahead so if these get beaten then we'll slip into the red. It's been a bit of a bloodbath of late with only one horse successful from our last 16 selections. Ascot 4-1 Key Biscuit is a good galloper which is well suited to the step up in trip after his nice last start win. He looks particularly well placed with the claim for Salleh and I expect him to just about win. Gold Coast 7-4 Lord Lujain broke his duck here after taking a few runs to get his act together as a racehorse. Now that he has he might go on with it and being by Lujain should handle the heavy going well. Toowoomba 2-3 Pearly Beach will win this race. Simple as that.

SELECTIONS - 28 November 2008

POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])

Hamilton 9-1 Burmuda [18]
Toowoomba 7-4 Brer Fox [19]

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Hamilton 8-13, 9-5
Naracoorte 5-1
Wagga 9-7

Comments: Hamiton 9-1 Burmuda won a 5 horse Class 2 over this course 25 days ago. Won at this track first up three runs back so he obviously likes it here. Seems well in at the weights so he should go close again. Toowoomba 7-4 Brer Fox has been in dynamic form up in far north Queensland (FNQ) winning all 5 of his runs over the sprint trips. Has had a change of stables so they obviously think he's up to stronger races and I expect him to prove that by winning this even with the flying Cattleman and Rhumba Jack in the race.

SELECTIONS - 27 November 2008

POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])

There are no POOMA selections today

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Bendigo 6-6

Comments: Gee, we've copped a hammering this month and another System 1 selection got rolled yesterday. Nothing much today and if you can make money from the quaddie at Ipswich then you're a genius.

SELECTIONS - 26 November 2008

POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])

Sandown 2-1 Absolute Star [1,4,14]

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Sandown 5-8

(* Any updates for Western Australia later on *)

Comments: Sandown 2-1 Absolute Star made it a hat trick of wins with success as a $1.40 favourite at Warrnambool last time out when he was never going to lose. He will be short and those who backed the three short price selections yesterday are still putting burn cream on their fingers, as they all went over, and I don't want to take less than around $2.20 here.

SELECTIONS - 25 November 2008

POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])

Sale 2-4 French Secret [1]
Sale 7-4 Meteor Mistress [1,10]
Sale 8-2 Scion [8,18]

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Mackay 1-9, 6-6

(* Any updates for Northam later on *)

Comments: Three selections on a heavy track at Sale. Sale 2-4 French Secret pulled his arse off when 5th of 6 as a $1.90 favourite last time out. He's quoted at a ridiculuously short price, which says more about the quality of opposition than about his talent. Surely all he needs to do is handle the heavy to get home, though? I won't be taking $1.50 to find out even if he does come from Super System #1. Sale 7-4 Meteor Mistress is another from System #1 and she looks to have a fair chance given her good overall record. Again, it's a 4 horse race so anything can happen but barring bad luck she should go close. Sale 8-2 Scion finally put it all together to break his duck at his 10th start over 1700m here two weeks ago. Stepping up 500m on the heavy seems like a concern so the current short price on offer is unappealing. All in all, three good chances that probably won't be much value.

SELECTIONS - 24 November 2008

POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])

There are no POOMA selections today

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Scone 2-3, 6-2

Comments: Nothing today.

SELECTIONS - 23 November 2008

POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])

Devonport 1-5 Notoria [7]

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Cranbourne 3-1, 3-3, 4-9, 8-6
Devonport 5-2

(* Any updates for Pinjarra later on *)

Comments: Devonport 1-5 Notoria had his first start in Tasmania since moving from Victoria and repaid connections immediately with a solid Maiden win over this course and on a slow track. This doesn't look a strong race and she should go very close again.

SELECTIONS - 22 November 2008

POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])

Cheltenham 4-1 Gilded Boots [18]
Gold Coast 1-2 Giddyupjayjay [10]
Gold Coast 3-7 Canivorthrill [10]
Gold Coast 5-3 Koorong Avenue [6,7]
Toowoomba 1-5 Beurre [8,20]

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Ascot 2-1, 3-4, 9-6
Kembla Grange 6-5, 8-4
Kilmore 1-1
Randwick 7-10

(* Any updates for Western Australia later on *)

Comments: Wet tracks everywhere today so let's hope our selections have webbed feet. Cheltenham 4-1 Gilded Boots looks hard to beat after scoring a hat trick of wins over this course since resuming. Stays in the same RB81 company as last run but rises 2.5kg, which puts him at a disadvantage weight-wise but if he's around $3 then that would be about the right price. Gold Coast 1-2 Giddyupjayjay has been running home well in his races and has managed to feature in the stewards' report at all 4 runs so if he manages to put everything together then he really should be winning this. Gold Coast 3-7 Canivorthrill has the non-terrific of 1/18 but tends to be thereabouts in his races so if he gets the right run then might be a chance in what isn't an overly strong race. Gold Coast 5-3 Koorong Avenue led throughout to whup a Maiden field on Melbourne Cup day and ran good time in the process. Take the biggest step up in grade in racing but was impressive enough last time to suggest he's a big chance today. Toowoomba 1-5 Beurre is a consistent type that just missed in a good race last time. Looks to have the most upside in this race but will be a short price favourite.

SELECTIONS - 21 November 2008

POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])

Port Lincoln 5-7 Lord Zebedee [7]

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Goulburn 6-5
Port Lincoln 6-1

(* Any updates for Moonee Valley and elsewhere later on *)

Comments: Port Lincoln 5-7 Lord Zebedee is looking to bring up a hat trick of wins here after wins in RB64 and RB68 races. Up to an RB74 here but in with a good weight and around $3 looks the right price.

SELECTIONS - 20 November 2008

POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])

Seymour 2-2 Cool Force [8]

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Mt Barker 5-8
Seymour 9-13

(* Any updates for Mt Barker or Canterbury later on *)

Comments: Seymour 2-2 Cool Force led them up when resuming from a spell and was only overhauled in the last few hops. The drop back in trip should help so the big question is whether he'll handle the heavy conditions. Oamaru Force horses have only had 9 runs on the heavy and are yet to ring up a win but that's hardly conclusive. All the same, I'd want around $3.50 to get interested.

SELECTIONS - 19 November 2008

POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])

Pinjarra 6-1 McDane [18]

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Pinjarra 8-11

(* Any updates for Pinjarra later on *)

Comments: Pinjarra 6-1 McDane has had 3 runs from a spell in today's RB64 class for a 3rd, 2nd and win with the latter two being over this course. He came from gate 9/9 at his last two and if he can get a decent run from the wide gate then must be a good chance again.

SELECTIONS - 18 November 2008

POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])

Moe 5-1 Happy Glen [1]
Townsville 5-1 Ref's Call [10]
Warwick Farm 4-1 Fusakeo [4,14]

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Townsville 6-1, 7-4

Comments: Moe 5-1 Happy Glen really does look the winner here after his good first up run and then 5L 9th of 16 to King Hoaks down the straight five and a half furlongs at Flemington over the carnival. He finished around 3L behind Gran Sasso, which came out and won nicely at Sandown on Saturday so even with the 58kg he looks the clear top chance. Townsville 5-1 Ref's Call flogged a small Class 6 field last time out to rack up his 4th win from 30 outings. If he runs up to that effort then he's going to be a fair chance in this even with the extra 4kg due to dropping back to a Class 4 event. Warwick Farm 4-1 Fusakeo folded up late after leading to be beaten as a $1.40 shot at Kembla Grange last run. The weight is a concern but he should scoot to the lead from the wide gate and around this tighter track should be hard to beat. Race 6 at Townsville is a corker, as it sees the return of local sprint champ Sea Zulu which has to carry 62.5kg after the claim and give 5kg to what looks to be his only danger, the flying Captain Wheland. The race is named the Sea Zulu Horse of the Year Handicap so it's only right that he runs them down and wins the race. It's worth noting that he's won over this course with 62kg running fast time and I think it's likely he'll cross from the wide gate to sit outside Captain Wheland and make sure it's run at a good tempo, as he won't be able to come from behind off a slow pace. Should be a great race.

SELECTIONS - 17 November 2008

POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])

Tamworth 6-12 Carry The Tune [10]
Warrnambool 7-2 Uncle Ivan [10]

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Nil

Comments: Tamworth 6-12 Carry The Tune has been thereabouts in recent starts and might be some sort of chance at double figure odds from her OK draw and in what is an even field. Warrnambool 7-2 Uncle Ivan is obviously quite unsound given he's having his 6th start and has already had 4 first up runs. If he is anywhere near his best then he could flog this lot but the question is his soundness.

SELECTIONS - 16 November 2008

POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])

Dubbo 3-11 Dew Drop Kiss [10]
Sunshine Coast 6-8 My Counsel [7]

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Bunbury 2-12, 9-13
Donald 5-2, 9-10
Hobart 2-9, 9-16, 10-1
Geelong 2-4
Sunshine Coast 2-10, 8-1

(* Any updates for Bunbury later on *)

Comments: Dubbo 3-11 Dew Drop Kiss is one of those selections that come out every so often which look to have a bit of a chance and will be good odds. She ran 3rd in a Class 2, non-TAB event here last time out and if she repeats that run might give a good sight in this. Sushine Coast 6-8 My Counsel has won 2 from 3 with both wins over this course. She jumps quickly in grade and strikes a slow track for the first time while dropping 4kg but I don't want to go anywhere near the $1.70 on offer on the morning line.

SELECTIONS - 15 November 2008

POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])

There are no POOMA selections today

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Eagle Farm 4-2
Gold Coast 6-1, 8-3
Sandown 1-7, 3-10, 3-11, 4-4
Toowoomba 6-4

(* Any updates for Ascot later on *)

Comments: No POOMAs today. There are some tough looking races, as well, so tread warily.

Black Book: Ascot 8-5 Swan Bee pulled his arse out for most of the race last time, then picked up the bit and charged to the line only to be run down late by Grand Nirvana. If he can get the right run from the gate then he'll be a fair chance again. Eagle Farm 7-5 Rockem was on his last chance last time but sucked us in again by missing the start badly, which he's making a habit of, and getting home really well for 2nd. Has a good gate so if he gets away cleanly then should just about get away with this and we'll get nice odds to tempt us.

SELECTIONS - 14 November 2008

POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])

There are no POOMA selections today

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Ballina 1-1
Moonee Valley 7-8
Wangaratta 8-6

(* Any updates for Moonee Valley later on *)

Comments: Nothing today unless something pops up at the Valley.

SELECTIONS - 13 November 2008

POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])

There are no POOMA selections today

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Nil

(* Any updates for Geraldton later on *)

Comments: Couldn't quite get home yesterday with a couple running 2nd. That thing I nominated as being expected to win, Gamroy, looks like a budding star. He settled at the back, made a long, searching run around the big field to hit the front on straightening and went strongly to the line under only light urging from Pike.

SELECTIONS - 12 November 2008

POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])

Ascot 1-1 Arcade Attraction [18]
Ascot 3-1 Destino [18]
Ascot 6-7 Gamroy [4]
Bendigo 10-4 King Carnage [18]
Canterbury 7-6 Impressionist [4,14]

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Ascot 1-7
Bendigo 10-2
Doomben 3-5
Gawler 5-6

(* Any updates for Western Australia later on *)

Comments: Ascot 1-1 Arcade Attraction led all of the way to win in this class and over this course at her 2nd run back from a spell. Rises 2kg and should be a chance again. If e/w odds are available then she looks a nice bet, as does the quinella with 7-Kriso Melli. Ascot 3-1 Destino ran 3rd in a strong form race at his first run at Pinjarra and then did well to win here last time out. Is in better at the weights after the claim and the step up in trip will suit so I expect him to win. Ascot 6-7 Gamroy could not have been more impressive when careering away for a Maiden win at Northam after coming from near the rear on the corner. I nearly put him in the black book but thought that the win was so good he'd go around at a short price at his next few runs. This is not a hard race and I expect him to win, too. Bendigo 10-4 King Carnage returned from a spell and put two wins together in RB68 and RB72 company. He won his first two back from a spell last time in, too, and then ran three even races without winning though in strong company. He's going to be around $4, which looks right to me. The danger looks to be 2-Hezabruiser. Canterbury 7-6 Impressionist is one of those Gai horses that keeps sucking people in to backing it but doesn't quite deliver. It did manage to win its Maiden last time at Wyong and kept going strongly after being slowly away and working up outside the leader but the $2.50 on the morning line is $2 short for me.

Black Book: Bendigo 7-2 The Sunshine Man went into the black book two runs ago after flogging home from back in the field at Cranbourne from last on the corner for a good 4th. I wanted to see him on a big track and he duly saluted at Geelong, though not in the manner I expected. Damien Oliver realised the pace was slow so took him to the front and he proved superior. There's more pace in this race so he'll be able to settle midfield and run over them in the straight.

SELECTIONS - 11 November 2008

POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])

There are no POOMA selections today

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Scone 9-1

Comments: Nothing worth backing today again.

SELECTIONS - 10 November 2008

POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])

There are no POOMA selections today

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Queanbeyan 8-1

Comments: Nothing worth backing today.

SELECTIONS - 9 November 2008

POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])

Devonport 9-4 Buncha Keys [6]

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Ararat 3-1, 6-1, 8-2
Armidale 8-6
Cranbourne 5-4, 8-3
Devonport 4-4
Sunshine Coast 5-2

(* Any updates for Albany later on *)

Comments: Devonport 9-4 Buncha Keys won his Maiden first up at his 12th run and over this course. Drops 7kg with the 4kg apprentice on board so hopefully he can sit on it and steer it around effectively.

SELECTIONS - 8 November 2008

POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])

Ascot 3-2 Kanturk [18]
Flemington 6-6 Keen Commander [12,10]
Flemington 6-8 Sunburnt Land [12]
Gold Coast 7-6 Ustino A Girl [7]
Newcastle 4-2 King's Course [8]

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Ascot 2-7, 7-6
Doomben 6-3
Newcastle 1-1, 3-1
Randwick 1-1
Warren 6-1

(* Any updates for Western Australia later on *)

Comments: Ascot 3-2 Kanturk thundered home from near last for placings at his first two runs from a spell for placings before settling closer and getting away with a race two weeks ago. Steps up to a mile, which looks suitable, but the $2.60 on offer looks short to me. Flemington 6-6 Keen Commander has to beat Apache Cat, which has won 10 of his last 13 including 5 G1s in a row, and perform at the top level at 1200m which has been beyond him thus far. He'll be big odds. Flemington 6-8 Sunburnt Land as per Black Book comment. Gold Coast 7-6 Ustino A Girl has had 6 runs and been in the stewards' report every time so she's still learning what racing is all about. Luke Dittman seemed to find the key to things in her easy win last time over this course in a Class 1 race. If she repeats that effort then she'll be a chance again. Newcastle 4-2 King's Course has had a freshen up since putting a couple together here over six furlongs. Comes back to 900m but has a lot of speed and I expect him to win this.

Black Book: Sunburnt Land 6-8 should have won again in the Salinger but was held up for a long way and missed his chance. Can he beat Apache Cat? We'll be tempted with nice odds to find out.

SELECTIONS - 7 November 2008

POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])

Townsville 7-4 Dragonisi [6,10]

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Port Macquarie 7-3
Townsville 2-6

(* Any updates later on *)

Comments: Townsville 7-4 Dragonisi was really impressive last time out when beating a good Class 3 field over this course in sharp time. Has hit his straps since moving from Victoria to Far North Queensland, like a lot of horses do, and I expect him to be in the finish.

SELECTIONS - 6 November 2008

POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])

Albury 6-2 Donilly Lad [7]
Pakenham 6-1 Set Shot [18]
Warrnambool 4-1 Claybird [10]
Warrnambool 6-3 No More Cans [10]

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Albury 1-3
Doomben 1-8, 8-3
Flemington 6-1, 8-1
Hawkesbury 3-1, 3-3
Murray Bridge 7-1
Pakenham 6-1

(* Any updates for Western Australia later on *)

Comments: Albury 6-2 Donilly Lad is in rare form with 3 wins from his last 4 starts, all over this course, split by a 4th at Wagga. Is up 2kg on his last start win but has the inside draw and even though he's up against a fair field he really should just about win again. Pakenham 6-1 Set Shot led throughout to win over 8m further last time out. Stays in the same class and rises 2kg against the limit. This is a pretty good field but he should be able to lead from gate 3 and he'll be there at the business end. Warrnambool 4-1 Claybird generally gets back and flogs home late to look a chance but get beaten narrowly, which he did again last start when resuming from a spell. This would have to be the worst field he's met and I expect him to win. Warrnambool 6-3 No More Cans returned from a year and a half away from racing for a good 3rd in an RB68 race over this course in what was a pretty fair race won by Fasmoss. They ran 0.64 faster than Boydari on the same day so you'd think that our selection should be around $3 favourite and just about win.

SELECTIONS - 5 November 2008

POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])

Grafton 1-2 Gorbachov [6,7]
Grafton 3-5 Totally Grateful [10]
Kyneton 1-3 Long Haul [1]
Northam 3-2 Star Of Danetime [7,18]

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Ipswich 6-7
Kyneton 7-10

(* Any updates for Western Australia later on *)

Comments: Grafton 1-2 Gorbachov has grown a leg since changing stables and if he runs up to his two last start wins then he'll bring up a hat trick in this. Grafton 3-5 Totally Grateful has placed at 4 of 5 runs so is consistent and should be a chance again. Kyneton 1-3 Long Haul hasn't been beaten far in his 3 runs in good Maiden fields. Steps up to 2000m here and is by Exceed And Excel, which is a worry stamina-wise, but if he can lead at a slow tempo then should be able to sprint away in the straight. Northam 3-2 Star Of Danetime had his first non-metropolitan run when winning first up over this course. With Paul Harvey on board he'll be favourite and you'd expect her to run well in this.

Melbourne Cup Misery

The Bet (click on the image to see the whole thing):



And the result:

SELECTIONS - 4 November 2008

POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])

There are no POOMA selections today

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Ascot 5-1, 7-1
Eagle Farm 7-1
Echuca 4-3
Flemington 10-4
Kembla Grange 3-8
Morphettville 8-10
Randwick 1-3

(* Early post due to 10.20AM start at Flemington. Updates later on *)

Comments: I have no idea which horse will win the Melbourne Cup. It looks a complete lottery. For the record I'll go 8-4-12. Selections for each race at Flemington today are 1-1, 2-9, 3-9, 4-6, 5-2, 6-4, 7-5, 8-2, 9-3, 10-4

Black Book: Ascot 8-1 Inarticulate finished a disappointing 10th first up at his first go in black type company, albeit beaten less than 3 lengths. The drop in grade and claim for Jarrod Noske bring him in extremely well and I expect him to win. Flemington 4-6 Neroli made up for losing on protest 3 runs back with two wins in Sydney. She'll get a good run from the inside draw and should go very close. Flemington 7-2 Master O'Reilly is having his last run as a black booker. He's made us a lot of money and he'll be at nice odds today and is not without a chance, as he'll be finding the line though he might be giving away too much weight to some down the list. Randwick 6-8 Spinnrad hasn't raced since February 2007 and normally I'd take them out of the black book after so long but Danny Williams knows what he's doing with a horse and he scratched it from a much easier race at Kembla Grange today to run in this so I want to watch and see how he goes.

SELECTIONS - 3 November 2008

POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])

Muswellbrook 1-11 Bobby The Dazzler [16]

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Hamilton 1-5
Muswellbrook 3-2, 8-2

Comments: We were very unlucky to finish behind over the weekend with a couple of selections nabbed late after missing the start. Only one sleep to Melbourne Cup day so we can try and increase our bank with Muswellbrook 1-11 Bobby The Dazzler has run a couple of even runs since a spell including a good last start 4th at Newcaslte in a stronger race than this. He's still trying to win his Maiden at his 11th go so you'd want e/w odds to back him but this is not an overly strong race so he should run well.

SELECTIONS - 2 November 2008

POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])

Sunshine Coast 3-1 My Counsel [6,7]

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Parkes 4-3

(* Any updates for Western Australia later on *)

Comments: Sunshine Coast 3-1 My Counsel flogged a Maiden field over this course last time out. Is long odds on in early markets so it'll be a watch race for me.

SELECTIONS - 1 November 2008

POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])

Ballina 6-1 Centennial Son [6,7]
Flemington 6-7 Littorio [12]
Morphettville 1-3 Kiss The Cash [10]
Morphettville 7-4 Happy Banker [10]
Traralgon 8-3 Acamar [1]

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Ascot 9-7
Ballina 5-2, 7-3
Flemington 2-1, 5-6, 9-14, 10-3
Morphettville 5-2
Toowoomba 2-4

(* Any updates for Western Australia later on *)

Comments: We managed to eke out a small profit in October in spite of a high 43% strike rate. If the monthly win-loss sequence continues then we're in for a loss this month but given how bad September was we're due for a really big month so let's hope this lot can kick things off on the right foot for us. Ballina 6-1 Centennial Son easily won his Maiden three runs back, then missed the start and was never in the race before returning to form with an impressive win over this course last time out. Looks the winner in this. Flemington 6-7 Littorio finished well for 5th in the Caulfield Cup. Doesn't strike me as a WFA horse but if he's going to have any hope in the big one on Tuesday then he needs to add this to his two career wins given it's not a strong race. Morphettville 1-3 Kiss The Cash is a hard finishing type that racked up a couple of wins on the provincial circuit before being beaten less than half a length here 4 weeks ago. Must be a chance here but the current price of less than $3 doesn't excite me. Morphettville 7-4 Happy Banker hasn't won since the equivalent meeting this time last year. This is easier than recent runs and I'll be taking him one out in quaddies. Traralgon 8-3 Acamar thundered home first up to win her Maiden at Echuca and then ran well in a strong race at Ballarat last time out for 5th, beaten less than 3L. She's well placed after the claim and I expect her to be there at the business end.

Black Book: Ascot 7-3 Swan Bee started favourite first up and was a bit one paced when beaten into 6th spot, albeit beaten only 1.5L. The step up to 1400m is probably suitable and I'm not going to sack him just yet. Doomben 6-2 Rockem was horribly ridden last time when 7th of 13. Has a change of jockey here and will jump from an inside alley so I'll be taking him one out in the quaddie and if he can't get home then his days as a BBer will come to an end. Flemington 9-2 Sunburnt Land has been terrific for us with 5 wins from 7 runs. His career 1100-1200m runs read 1611111 so trainer Matty Ellerton has decided that keeping him fresh and to sprints is the go. He'll settle just off the expected hot pace and run over them late to win.