POOMA selections:
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Bendigo 3-4, 3-10, 4-14, 6-2
Eagle Farm 8-1
Today: Slow tracks at Northam, Gosford and Eagle Farm knock them out as decent betting propositions. Perhaps Magical Profit can go close in the last race at Eagle Farm. The Bendigo meeting looks like a fair place to have a go. In the first race 1-7 Laleil resumes from a spell and looks like having a fair chance. She probably doesn't have the speed to lead but in a small field will not be far away and will get her chance to win once into the spacious Bendigo straight. 2-2 Captanashi looks the goods, also. He's been finding the line strongly in all of his races and steps up to a mile for the first time today. The quinella horse looks to be 4-Ponbar Diamond who led them up and finished just behind the placegetters in the same race that Captanashi ran in last time. I'll be very keen to back 3-10 Stay All Day and 3-4 El Zahia in the Hurdle. Stay All Day is having his first run over the obstacles and has schooled very well in preparation for this. El Zahia was beaten a lip at his jumps debut when 2nd at Warrnambool. Both have strong flat records, which is really what you need to look for in these Maiden Hurdle races. In terms of value I rate them both at $4 and will be working all multiples around them. 12-Zapache and 7-Poker Face look place chances there. 4-14 Showify plummets in class and is beatifully placed in this race first up from a spell. The races then get a tad hard and there's nothing that really stands out in races 5 to 8 though 5-15 Strategic Mover each way might yield some value; I'm just not too sure about that favourite in that race, Samurtriack, running a strong mile.
Yesterday: Besides getting the last POOMA for the month home I picked out a few chances that did the right thing. Delvecchio was the best result, leading all of the way and never looking in doubt over the last 600m paying $4. I thought there were impressive performances from Here De Angels which won race 4 at Moonee Valley decisively, as well as Going Spending, which always looked to have them covered. At Canterbury, the much anticipated debut of Makybe Diva's 3/4 brother, Musket, ended with that horse being held up in traffic until the 150m mark where Beadman managed to shoulder him out and race away for a convincing win by 3 or 4L. He obviously has above average talent, which is handy if you forked out the massive price to buy him.
POOMAs: Regal Megan led all the way to win narrowly at Rockhampton paying $1.90.
Thursday, August 31, 2006
Wednesday, August 30, 2006
SELECTIONS - 30 August 2006
POOMA selections:
Rockhampton 5-1 Regal Megan
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Balaklava 8-7
Belmont 2-3, 3-3, 4-1, 8-1
Canterbury 1-8
Moonee Valley 7-9
Rockhampton 2-1, 3-4, 5-1
Today: It looks a good day for a punt with strong Wednesday meetings around the country though dead tracks at Canterbury and Moonee Valley are a tad worriesome, as I reckon they're the worst to pick winners on. Today is the first meeting this month where a POOMA is at a track outside Victoria. Rockhampton 5-1 Regal Megan comes from the highest performing system I have (19/26 @ 51% POT) and looks to have a strong chance. She's yet to win first up but those runs were away from this track where she has a good record. At Moonee Valley, 7-9 Testabel looks a fair chance to bring home the last leg of the quaddie even if she is stepping up in trip. 1-9 Miss Bridport is first up for the Tom Hughes stable. She's two from two first up at provincial tracks and her other two runs in the city have been OK. Will be e/w odds. 2-English Rose has drawn a tad wide from the 1000m start but if she can position up close, as she normally does, then she'll also be there at the end. The topweight, Lula, has been running around in stronger races and rounds out the multiples chances. 2-1 Delvecchio will roll to the front and you'd have to think would be pretty hard to run down in what is an easier event than he ran in last time. 8-Newgrange comes out of the same race and they could easily run the quinella. If the 3YO fillies' form is any good then you'd have to think that 3-1 Satin Robes would have to go close. 3-Estelle Collection ran 2nd before a spell behind Sharkbite who ran 2nd to the new freak, Haradasun, the other day. I'll be taking that as a quinella. Of interest will be the first run of Canterbury 1-8 Musket. He's a 3/4 brother to Makybe Diva being by super sire, Redoute's Choice, out of Tugela. He's been entered and withdrawn a few times recently and will need to have a reasonable amount of talent to get past 6-Traitor's Gate. He has Beadman aboard, is from the Hawkes stable and has the hype so he'll probably start short, which means that if you like something else then there'll be value. I reckon that Peter Moody has worked out that Sydney midweek racing is really weak and that he can take horses that would otherwise have to race in more competitive Victorian provincial fields up to Sydney and go for higher prizemoney. We saw that yesterday when Palace General came off a Warracknabeal $8 Class 3 win to smash them by 7L at Randwick. 7-4 Ankh Morpork comes from a comfortable Geelong Maiden win into this race and a repeat performance might be on the cards. Good luck if you're having a go today.
Yesterday: The non-POOMAs did pretty well yesterday with 4 wins and a 2nd from 5 selections. As mentioned, I was driving from Melbourne to Canberra and thought I'd put on a couple of quaddies and stand out one of the selections at each meeting. Ended up putting out $108 and getting back $900 with both quaddies saluting. What was amazing is what they paid. At Bairnsdale the winners paid $2.40, $11.30, $3.30 and $2.80 which as an all up is $251 but it paid $421. At Randwick the winners were $1.50, $6.50, $3.60 and $6.80 which is an all up of $238 and it paid an amazing $484. Quaddies tend to pay more than the all up, of course, but those results are a bit higher than you'd expect, especially with a Peter Moody trained $1.50 shot winning the first leg. If you are ever driving from Melbourne to Canberra then make sure to stop and refuel at the Caltex that is on the final stretch out of Albury. It's got a Hungry Jacks connected with it and when you fill up you get a 2 for 1 hamburger voucher. I always get a $2 Cheeseburger, which is accompanied by a 2nd, free Cheeseburger (which is plenty) and that provides sustenance to help me on the three hour leg to Canberra (it's a 7 hour run overall with the pitstop).
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.
Rockhampton 5-1 Regal Megan
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Balaklava 8-7
Belmont 2-3, 3-3, 4-1, 8-1
Canterbury 1-8
Moonee Valley 7-9
Rockhampton 2-1, 3-4, 5-1
Today: It looks a good day for a punt with strong Wednesday meetings around the country though dead tracks at Canterbury and Moonee Valley are a tad worriesome, as I reckon they're the worst to pick winners on. Today is the first meeting this month where a POOMA is at a track outside Victoria. Rockhampton 5-1 Regal Megan comes from the highest performing system I have (19/26 @ 51% POT) and looks to have a strong chance. She's yet to win first up but those runs were away from this track where she has a good record. At Moonee Valley, 7-9 Testabel looks a fair chance to bring home the last leg of the quaddie even if she is stepping up in trip. 1-9 Miss Bridport is first up for the Tom Hughes stable. She's two from two first up at provincial tracks and her other two runs in the city have been OK. Will be e/w odds. 2-English Rose has drawn a tad wide from the 1000m start but if she can position up close, as she normally does, then she'll also be there at the end. The topweight, Lula, has been running around in stronger races and rounds out the multiples chances. 2-1 Delvecchio will roll to the front and you'd have to think would be pretty hard to run down in what is an easier event than he ran in last time. 8-Newgrange comes out of the same race and they could easily run the quinella. If the 3YO fillies' form is any good then you'd have to think that 3-1 Satin Robes would have to go close. 3-Estelle Collection ran 2nd before a spell behind Sharkbite who ran 2nd to the new freak, Haradasun, the other day. I'll be taking that as a quinella. Of interest will be the first run of Canterbury 1-8 Musket. He's a 3/4 brother to Makybe Diva being by super sire, Redoute's Choice, out of Tugela. He's been entered and withdrawn a few times recently and will need to have a reasonable amount of talent to get past 6-Traitor's Gate. He has Beadman aboard, is from the Hawkes stable and has the hype so he'll probably start short, which means that if you like something else then there'll be value. I reckon that Peter Moody has worked out that Sydney midweek racing is really weak and that he can take horses that would otherwise have to race in more competitive Victorian provincial fields up to Sydney and go for higher prizemoney. We saw that yesterday when Palace General came off a Warracknabeal $8 Class 3 win to smash them by 7L at Randwick. 7-4 Ankh Morpork comes from a comfortable Geelong Maiden win into this race and a repeat performance might be on the cards. Good luck if you're having a go today.
Yesterday: The non-POOMAs did pretty well yesterday with 4 wins and a 2nd from 5 selections. As mentioned, I was driving from Melbourne to Canberra and thought I'd put on a couple of quaddies and stand out one of the selections at each meeting. Ended up putting out $108 and getting back $900 with both quaddies saluting. What was amazing is what they paid. At Bairnsdale the winners paid $2.40, $11.30, $3.30 and $2.80 which as an all up is $251 but it paid $421. At Randwick the winners were $1.50, $6.50, $3.60 and $6.80 which is an all up of $238 and it paid an amazing $484. Quaddies tend to pay more than the all up, of course, but those results are a bit higher than you'd expect, especially with a Peter Moody trained $1.50 shot winning the first leg. If you are ever driving from Melbourne to Canberra then make sure to stop and refuel at the Caltex that is on the final stretch out of Albury. It's got a Hungry Jacks connected with it and when you fill up you get a 2 for 1 hamburger voucher. I always get a $2 Cheeseburger, which is accompanied by a 2nd, free Cheeseburger (which is plenty) and that provides sustenance to help me on the three hour leg to Canberra (it's a 7 hour run overall with the pitstop).
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.
Tuesday, August 29, 2006
SELECTIONS - 29 August 2006
POOMA selections:
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Bairnsdale 5-7, 6-5, 8-2
Randwick 4-3, 6-2
Lay of the Day: I'm killing off the LOTD on the basis that the amount of time it takes to analyse all of the qualifiers is much too great given the potential return. Overall, I picked 19 losers from 24 runners that were less than $3 on the morning line after scratchings, which allowed for profitable lays. It is much better to spend that time analysing potential winners. I thought it would be a bit of fun but it quickly turned into a pain in the bum so out it goes.
Today: Another day with just two meetings, at Bairnsdale and the Randwick Inner Track. If you want to find Bairnsdale then get on the highway out of Melbourne and head West for 3 hours. If you want to find the Randwick Inner Track then look a few metres inside the Randwick Outer Track and there it is. I'm driving up to Canberra this arvo. Will leave about lunchtime, which will put me in Albury before the traffic builds up there. If you're ever driving to Canberra (or you can do it if you go to Mt Bulla, obviously) then take a note of your fuel consumption on the way there versus on the way back. You'll find it's less on the way back. Why? Because it's downhill. It's quite noticable on the Canberra-Sydney trip. The track is slow at Bairnsdale so there's not much point backing anything there. And looking at the Sydney meeting, I'll be having a day off the punt.
Yesterday: Nothing to report from the two meetings yesterday. Eddie Rapido got up in the last hop and paid $6, which I reckon is not bad picking by me. Two starts back I pick it as lay of the day and it runs 3rd and today I pick it to win and it wins. Apart from that I took little notice of what was going on.
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday (mainly because I was too gutless to nominate Nina Cabello).
LOTD: I was stuffed again yesterday, as I picked out two horses as potential lays and they both won. At least I picked the shorter priced one.
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Bairnsdale 5-7, 6-5, 8-2
Randwick 4-3, 6-2
Lay of the Day: I'm killing off the LOTD on the basis that the amount of time it takes to analyse all of the qualifiers is much too great given the potential return. Overall, I picked 19 losers from 24 runners that were less than $3 on the morning line after scratchings, which allowed for profitable lays. It is much better to spend that time analysing potential winners. I thought it would be a bit of fun but it quickly turned into a pain in the bum so out it goes.
Today: Another day with just two meetings, at Bairnsdale and the Randwick Inner Track. If you want to find Bairnsdale then get on the highway out of Melbourne and head West for 3 hours. If you want to find the Randwick Inner Track then look a few metres inside the Randwick Outer Track and there it is. I'm driving up to Canberra this arvo. Will leave about lunchtime, which will put me in Albury before the traffic builds up there. If you're ever driving to Canberra (or you can do it if you go to Mt Bulla, obviously) then take a note of your fuel consumption on the way there versus on the way back. You'll find it's less on the way back. Why? Because it's downhill. It's quite noticable on the Canberra-Sydney trip. The track is slow at Bairnsdale so there's not much point backing anything there. And looking at the Sydney meeting, I'll be having a day off the punt.
Yesterday: Nothing to report from the two meetings yesterday. Eddie Rapido got up in the last hop and paid $6, which I reckon is not bad picking by me. Two starts back I pick it as lay of the day and it runs 3rd and today I pick it to win and it wins. Apart from that I took little notice of what was going on.
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday (mainly because I was too gutless to nominate Nina Cabello).
LOTD: I was stuffed again yesterday, as I picked out two horses as potential lays and they both won. At least I picked the shorter priced one.
Monday, August 28, 2006
SELECTIONS - 28 August 2006
POOMA selections:
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Echuca 5-3, 8-5, 9-2
Lay of the Day: With only two meetings today and some of the shorties looking like having real chances it's quite hard to come up with one to pot. However, as this is a daily pick and I have to go for one I'll pick Goulburn 2-2 Hannabah $2.50 even though she, too, looks to have a strong chance - [LOTD 19 from 23]
Today: Echuca and Goulburn, eh? I was at Goulburn a few years back, as I had a couple of horses running (both finished 3rd) and was walking on the road behind the grandstand when a movement up ahead on the ground caught my eye. Focusing on it, I saw that it was a baby snake about 12 inches long, a dull gray/black colour with yellow/orange stripes. I thought, "Is that a Tiger Snake?", remembering that they strike at the drop of a hat. Authorities will tell you that they live quite peacefully until they're disturbed at which point they'll strike. How the heck can you be anywhere near one without disturbing it? There's a good reason that the bastard things have the reputation for aggression that they do (along with Funnel Web spiders). Just as I was contemplating the above a gentlemen walked down the road from the opposite direction, reading his formguide and entirely oblivious to the potential danger that lay just metres, and a few years of growth, away. The other potential serpentine breed that it could have been was a Red Bellied Black Snake, a relatively benign and timid fellow. However, the answer as to who its parents were was answered when the little bugger lifted itself up into the familiar S shape that a Tiger Snake assumes when preparing to strike and lashed out at the leg of the erstwhile unaware perambulating punter, missing by a good two feet. The bloke continued on past me never knowing the dire threat he had faced. About this time, my mate had joined me and I asked him to confirm the identity of the radarless, striped slitherer. He worked with horses and out in the paddocks all day and knew exactly what it was. Attracted by the commotion caused by a few people standing and staring at the ground, an old feller from the Salvation Army left his spot, chosen wisely next to the IN gate and not the OUT gate, and walked down the road. Spotting the snake on the ground ahead of him he decided that the best thing to do was to shoo it away so he took off his hat and waved it next to the snake. Now thoroughly agitated in a way that I only get when accosted by charity collectors dressed in koala suits, the little thing lashed out repeatedly at the hat. He really had quite poor aim. My mate pointed out that these things are a real menace for horses and that we had to do it in. An excellent plan, methinks. Assuming the pose of interested bystander I was asking my mate how 'we' (being anyone other than me) should achieve this outcome when a hefty bloke wearing great big boots happened along, saw the problem, lifted a large right foot and brought it crashing down with an effectiveness that ended the need for me to get an answer to my enquiry. Figuring that a small Tiger Snake might have a fully grown companion in the vicinity we wisely retreated to the pavillion. In race 3 there only look to be three chances: 1, 3 & 11 assuming the first starters are no good. 4-2 Eddie Rapido was a Lay Of The Day two starts back when running home well for 3rd at Wagga. He put in a similar performance last start at this track and the slight step up in trip will suit. 8-1 Nip The Tip looks the goods for the Hawkes/Beadman Jr combination. I've never been to Echuca so can't tell you any stories though my mate Roger has been and can. Remember to bring your own NoDoze, though. There's nothing that really stands out but I'll definitely be checking out the prices of the Moody runners in races 3, 5 & 6, as they look in winnable events. The first race is pretty amazing in that the entire field of 3YOs is unraced. That must be quite a rare happening. For the record, and having no idea of the trials etc, I'll go for 12-Tricky Vicky, as she's by Viscount and that sire seems to be getting quite a few nice horses.
Yesterday: It ended up being a fair day yesterday with the POOMA and the nominated horses elsewhere all doing the right thing. Escadaire's performance had a lot of merit given he did all of the work up front. He can go on with it. In the last race at Ballarat, First Cru showed that she has a fair amount of talent and if she went to town for a midweek race she'd sneak in on the limit and be competitive. In the Hurdle at Hamiltom, Wild Kingdom won at his debut over jumps helped along by another tip top ride from Paddy Payne. He's a fair flat performer so you'd expect him to win a couple more hurdles as he goes up in grade. In race 6 there, Fulta was back last but picked them up like they were nailed down to win impressively. She's a lightly raced 6YO mare that must have had problems after her first start, as she didn't race for nearly a year and a half after that. The way she won today she'll be winning again soon. Consolidation did a rare thing in the last race at Hamilton and won at his 2nd start in Class 1 company when coming off a Maiden win. He is another who looks like he'll go through his grades and is definitely worth following.
POOMAs: Another POOMA selection landed the prize when Escadaire got home at Ballarat. He was a well backed favourite and paid a bit over $3 on the totes.
LOTD: Caesar's Jewels started $3 at the Sunshine Coast, had a good run and threatened to win but just failed to run out a strong 1300m and finished 3rd.
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Echuca 5-3, 8-5, 9-2
Lay of the Day: With only two meetings today and some of the shorties looking like having real chances it's quite hard to come up with one to pot. However, as this is a daily pick and I have to go for one I'll pick Goulburn 2-2 Hannabah $2.50 even though she, too, looks to have a strong chance - [LOTD 19 from 23]
Today: Echuca and Goulburn, eh? I was at Goulburn a few years back, as I had a couple of horses running (both finished 3rd) and was walking on the road behind the grandstand when a movement up ahead on the ground caught my eye. Focusing on it, I saw that it was a baby snake about 12 inches long, a dull gray/black colour with yellow/orange stripes. I thought, "Is that a Tiger Snake?", remembering that they strike at the drop of a hat. Authorities will tell you that they live quite peacefully until they're disturbed at which point they'll strike. How the heck can you be anywhere near one without disturbing it? There's a good reason that the bastard things have the reputation for aggression that they do (along with Funnel Web spiders). Just as I was contemplating the above a gentlemen walked down the road from the opposite direction, reading his formguide and entirely oblivious to the potential danger that lay just metres, and a few years of growth, away. The other potential serpentine breed that it could have been was a Red Bellied Black Snake, a relatively benign and timid fellow. However, the answer as to who its parents were was answered when the little bugger lifted itself up into the familiar S shape that a Tiger Snake assumes when preparing to strike and lashed out at the leg of the erstwhile unaware perambulating punter, missing by a good two feet. The bloke continued on past me never knowing the dire threat he had faced. About this time, my mate had joined me and I asked him to confirm the identity of the radarless, striped slitherer. He worked with horses and out in the paddocks all day and knew exactly what it was. Attracted by the commotion caused by a few people standing and staring at the ground, an old feller from the Salvation Army left his spot, chosen wisely next to the IN gate and not the OUT gate, and walked down the road. Spotting the snake on the ground ahead of him he decided that the best thing to do was to shoo it away so he took off his hat and waved it next to the snake. Now thoroughly agitated in a way that I only get when accosted by charity collectors dressed in koala suits, the little thing lashed out repeatedly at the hat. He really had quite poor aim. My mate pointed out that these things are a real menace for horses and that we had to do it in. An excellent plan, methinks. Assuming the pose of interested bystander I was asking my mate how 'we' (being anyone other than me) should achieve this outcome when a hefty bloke wearing great big boots happened along, saw the problem, lifted a large right foot and brought it crashing down with an effectiveness that ended the need for me to get an answer to my enquiry. Figuring that a small Tiger Snake might have a fully grown companion in the vicinity we wisely retreated to the pavillion. In race 3 there only look to be three chances: 1, 3 & 11 assuming the first starters are no good. 4-2 Eddie Rapido was a Lay Of The Day two starts back when running home well for 3rd at Wagga. He put in a similar performance last start at this track and the slight step up in trip will suit. 8-1 Nip The Tip looks the goods for the Hawkes/Beadman Jr combination. I've never been to Echuca so can't tell you any stories though my mate Roger has been and can. Remember to bring your own NoDoze, though. There's nothing that really stands out but I'll definitely be checking out the prices of the Moody runners in races 3, 5 & 6, as they look in winnable events. The first race is pretty amazing in that the entire field of 3YOs is unraced. That must be quite a rare happening. For the record, and having no idea of the trials etc, I'll go for 12-Tricky Vicky, as she's by Viscount and that sire seems to be getting quite a few nice horses.
Yesterday: It ended up being a fair day yesterday with the POOMA and the nominated horses elsewhere all doing the right thing. Escadaire's performance had a lot of merit given he did all of the work up front. He can go on with it. In the last race at Ballarat, First Cru showed that she has a fair amount of talent and if she went to town for a midweek race she'd sneak in on the limit and be competitive. In the Hurdle at Hamiltom, Wild Kingdom won at his debut over jumps helped along by another tip top ride from Paddy Payne. He's a fair flat performer so you'd expect him to win a couple more hurdles as he goes up in grade. In race 6 there, Fulta was back last but picked them up like they were nailed down to win impressively. She's a lightly raced 6YO mare that must have had problems after her first start, as she didn't race for nearly a year and a half after that. The way she won today she'll be winning again soon. Consolidation did a rare thing in the last race at Hamilton and won at his 2nd start in Class 1 company when coming off a Maiden win. He is another who looks like he'll go through his grades and is definitely worth following.
POOMAs: Another POOMA selection landed the prize when Escadaire got home at Ballarat. He was a well backed favourite and paid a bit over $3 on the totes.
LOTD: Caesar's Jewels started $3 at the Sunshine Coast, had a good run and threatened to win but just failed to run out a strong 1300m and finished 3rd.
Sunday, August 27, 2006
SELECTIONS - 27 August 2006
POOMA selections:
Ballarat 8-1 Escadaire
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Hobart 1-5, 9-3
Hamilton 1-9, 1-10, 6-2
Kalgoorlie 4-1
Port Macquarie 3-1, 4-10
Lay of the Day: I'll take on Sunshine Coast 2-1 Caesar's Jewel $2.80; Steps up in trip and has the apprentice jockey from a wide gate - [LOTD 18 from 22]
Today: I reckon it's a good day to watch telly, especially if the mighty Magpies can overcome eternal nemesis, Carlton. In the first at Hamilton I'll be looking to back 9-Waddyano and 10-Wild Kingdom, with a preference for the Patrick Payne accompanied Wild Kingdom. They've both trialled OK over jumps and Wild Kingdom has better flat form than most of these with the exception of Hoofn It, which is also a chance. Our POOMA selection at Ballarat, 8-1 Escadaire, is very nicely placed in this race. He'll position right up on the speed and will be in the fight 200m out. It's a competitive field and there's a fair chance of getting some good value (which is what it's all about) on this one.Over at Kalgoorlie, I'm keen on 4-1 Just A Halo to bring up a hat trick at the track. He steps up in class and weight on his last win, so he's got to take another step up, but he looks like he's capable of doing so. I'll be looking for around $3.50.
Yesterday: I reckon I am a deadset legend for nominating that 10YO people's horse, Dandy Kid, was a big chance yesterday. He sat 3 and 4 deep all of the way before fighting his way to the lead half way down the straight and holding on for a narrow win. He now holds the record for most number of wins at Moonee Valley - 15. The general selections didn't do that well, though. Spielmeister won again, as expected. He has grown another leg this preparation and Sunshine Power stepped up in grade to win the last race very nicely. She's not a bad mare. In Sydney, Court's In Session's win was terrific. After being taken on for the lead by Desert War (who finished a strong 3rd) he then held out Racing To Win, who's no slouch of course. However, I thought the runs from the beaten brigade were disappointing outside of the placegetters and I'm prepared to write off their spring prospects already with maybe the exception of Aqua Damore. The wins of Walk Alone and Gold Edition were comprehensive and they can both keep winning on those performances. I've never been taken with Malcolm as a racehorse. I've always thought he was a bit over rated. His performance yesterday showed that he is clearly a rung below the good horses like Racing To Win.
POOMAs: 1 from 2 yesterday. Al Garhood led throughout to win the Steeple easily at Moonee Valley paying $2.20. Blue Lago didn't show any speed at all and was well back in running before finishing well for 4th. Another small profit for the day.
LOTD: We took on Bikkie Tin Blues and he kicked our arse by winning easily at $1.30. The other horse that I could have potted also won so I was always doomed!
Ballarat 8-1 Escadaire
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Hobart 1-5, 9-3
Hamilton 1-9, 1-10, 6-2
Kalgoorlie 4-1
Port Macquarie 3-1, 4-10
Lay of the Day: I'll take on Sunshine Coast 2-1 Caesar's Jewel $2.80; Steps up in trip and has the apprentice jockey from a wide gate - [LOTD 18 from 22]
Today: I reckon it's a good day to watch telly, especially if the mighty Magpies can overcome eternal nemesis, Carlton. In the first at Hamilton I'll be looking to back 9-Waddyano and 10-Wild Kingdom, with a preference for the Patrick Payne accompanied Wild Kingdom. They've both trialled OK over jumps and Wild Kingdom has better flat form than most of these with the exception of Hoofn It, which is also a chance. Our POOMA selection at Ballarat, 8-1 Escadaire, is very nicely placed in this race. He'll position right up on the speed and will be in the fight 200m out. It's a competitive field and there's a fair chance of getting some good value (which is what it's all about) on this one.Over at Kalgoorlie, I'm keen on 4-1 Just A Halo to bring up a hat trick at the track. He steps up in class and weight on his last win, so he's got to take another step up, but he looks like he's capable of doing so. I'll be looking for around $3.50.
Yesterday: I reckon I am a deadset legend for nominating that 10YO people's horse, Dandy Kid, was a big chance yesterday. He sat 3 and 4 deep all of the way before fighting his way to the lead half way down the straight and holding on for a narrow win. He now holds the record for most number of wins at Moonee Valley - 15. The general selections didn't do that well, though. Spielmeister won again, as expected. He has grown another leg this preparation and Sunshine Power stepped up in grade to win the last race very nicely. She's not a bad mare. In Sydney, Court's In Session's win was terrific. After being taken on for the lead by Desert War (who finished a strong 3rd) he then held out Racing To Win, who's no slouch of course. However, I thought the runs from the beaten brigade were disappointing outside of the placegetters and I'm prepared to write off their spring prospects already with maybe the exception of Aqua Damore. The wins of Walk Alone and Gold Edition were comprehensive and they can both keep winning on those performances. I've never been taken with Malcolm as a racehorse. I've always thought he was a bit over rated. His performance yesterday showed that he is clearly a rung below the good horses like Racing To Win.
POOMAs: 1 from 2 yesterday. Al Garhood led throughout to win the Steeple easily at Moonee Valley paying $2.20. Blue Lago didn't show any speed at all and was well back in running before finishing well for 4th. Another small profit for the day.
LOTD: We took on Bikkie Tin Blues and he kicked our arse by winning easily at $1.30. The other horse that I could have potted also won so I was always doomed!
Saturday, August 26, 2006
SELECTIONS - 26 August 2006
POOMA selections:
Moonee Valley 3-5 Al Garhood
Moonee Valley 5-4 Blue Lago
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Belmont 8-6
Doomben 2-1
Mildura 6-1, 8-4
Moonee Valley 2-2, 4-9, 5-2, 5-4, 7-15
Morphettville 5-3
Newcastle 8-7
Randwick 4-11, 6-1, 8-8, 9-7
Lay of the Day: I'm going to take on a really short priced favourite today in the form of rejuvenated 8YO, Doomben 2-1 Bikkie Tin Blues, at $1.60 (though he'll probably start shorter). He massacred them last time by a lazy 9L over 1800m but the 2nd horse, Mittani, led them up and wasn't ever going to run a strong race over that distance and the 3rd horse, Adavale Hornet, has been in work since The Dismissal (he's had 52 starts and is on only his 3rd preparation). Cold Start will get a soft lead and he's a tough stayer that will make the favourite carry his weight over the last 600m so I'll take a fair risk and going against him on the basis of value - [LOTD 18 from 21]
Today: I have a pretty good record at Moonee Valley where there have been 77 POOMA selections for 27 wins (35.1% s/r) at 19% profit however today looks mildly dangerous what with many good horses returning from spells, with different form lines and up against some up and comers. I reckon old Dandy Kid will not get a better chance to equal the most number of wins by a horse at MV than he does today in race 4. Moody and Freedman have some sharp looking, lightly raced horses engaged but with the claim Dandy is very close to them in weight. The race doesn't have a whole heap of 1200m/wet tracker horses and he'll be able to position up close to the lead, which will give him his chance to run them down. He always gets sentimental support, especially on the wet tracks, but I'd suggest that $6-$7 is good value. In the Steeple, 3-5 Al Garhood is a good hurdler that steps up to the bigger fences here for the first time. Ran a really good race in a strong field two starts back and has schooled really well. 5-4 Blue Lago is going to be in the firing line all the way and I can see him being in front into the straight, which will make him hard to run down. He's led them up at each of his starts, including the Golden Slipper, and I can't see what else will put a heap of pressure on early. A few others I like around the country are Belmont 1-1 Fighting Fox, which is listed at a remarkable $3.50 this morning. Doomben 1-5 Circus Maximus is very well placed here and the step up in trip will suit. Morphettville 7-9 Marju Snip is a terrific mare that charged through her grades last preparation, which started with a first up Maiden win at Strathalbyn and culminated in the South Australian Oaks. Darren Weir has three runners in at Mildura and they all look like being strong chances. At Randwick 2-4 Private Dan looks suited at a mile and a half and should be each way value.
Yesterday: Well, I couldn't believe my eyes when I saw the price of Crafty King at $3.80, a horse that's won 8 of his last 11 starts and was down in weight on his last start defeat of Sea Zulu. He was never going to lose after positioning up near the lead. Even more amazing to me is the fact he wasn't favourite. Apart from the POOMAs described below it wasn't much of a day for having a go. I was really glad to see the ACT race club name a race in honour of late racecaller, Tony Campbell. He was one of the true gentlemen of the turf and he would have been really touched by the event. I wonder whether he ever knew how much he was really appreciated? He was a very self deprecating sort of guy that never had a bad word for anyone and was always ready to help both with the race club and in many community activities all around Canberra. He was, in fact, the first racecaller to call a horse I owned winning about 10 years ago at the Canberra track. Long may the race named in his honour be run and won by good horses.
POOMAs: 1 from 2 yesterday. Preceptor copped a check after the start and went back to last, quite a long way off the pack. Nash Rawiller made a long run that ended in him finishing 2nd. He couldn't have beaten the winner with a clean getaway but he should have finished much closer. Tamavian was slightly slowly away but punched up inside the field, was right there on the corner and went to the line a comfortable 1.5L winner. She paid $2.20, which I thought was well and truly overs, and gave us a small profit for the day.
LOTD: Hot Pink started a $3 favourite, had an absolutely glorious run, hit the front 200m out at the top of the straight, spat the dummy out and ran an 8 length 2nd to the one we'd highlighted, Camille With Class that paid a nice $4.
Moonee Valley 3-5 Al Garhood
Moonee Valley 5-4 Blue Lago
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Belmont 8-6
Doomben 2-1
Mildura 6-1, 8-4
Moonee Valley 2-2, 4-9, 5-2, 5-4, 7-15
Morphettville 5-3
Newcastle 8-7
Randwick 4-11, 6-1, 8-8, 9-7
Lay of the Day: I'm going to take on a really short priced favourite today in the form of rejuvenated 8YO, Doomben 2-1 Bikkie Tin Blues, at $1.60 (though he'll probably start shorter). He massacred them last time by a lazy 9L over 1800m but the 2nd horse, Mittani, led them up and wasn't ever going to run a strong race over that distance and the 3rd horse, Adavale Hornet, has been in work since The Dismissal (he's had 52 starts and is on only his 3rd preparation). Cold Start will get a soft lead and he's a tough stayer that will make the favourite carry his weight over the last 600m so I'll take a fair risk and going against him on the basis of value - [LOTD 18 from 21]
Today: I have a pretty good record at Moonee Valley where there have been 77 POOMA selections for 27 wins (35.1% s/r) at 19% profit however today looks mildly dangerous what with many good horses returning from spells, with different form lines and up against some up and comers. I reckon old Dandy Kid will not get a better chance to equal the most number of wins by a horse at MV than he does today in race 4. Moody and Freedman have some sharp looking, lightly raced horses engaged but with the claim Dandy is very close to them in weight. The race doesn't have a whole heap of 1200m/wet tracker horses and he'll be able to position up close to the lead, which will give him his chance to run them down. He always gets sentimental support, especially on the wet tracks, but I'd suggest that $6-$7 is good value. In the Steeple, 3-5 Al Garhood is a good hurdler that steps up to the bigger fences here for the first time. Ran a really good race in a strong field two starts back and has schooled really well. 5-4 Blue Lago is going to be in the firing line all the way and I can see him being in front into the straight, which will make him hard to run down. He's led them up at each of his starts, including the Golden Slipper, and I can't see what else will put a heap of pressure on early. A few others I like around the country are Belmont 1-1 Fighting Fox, which is listed at a remarkable $3.50 this morning. Doomben 1-5 Circus Maximus is very well placed here and the step up in trip will suit. Morphettville 7-9 Marju Snip is a terrific mare that charged through her grades last preparation, which started with a first up Maiden win at Strathalbyn and culminated in the South Australian Oaks. Darren Weir has three runners in at Mildura and they all look like being strong chances. At Randwick 2-4 Private Dan looks suited at a mile and a half and should be each way value.
Yesterday: Well, I couldn't believe my eyes when I saw the price of Crafty King at $3.80, a horse that's won 8 of his last 11 starts and was down in weight on his last start defeat of Sea Zulu. He was never going to lose after positioning up near the lead. Even more amazing to me is the fact he wasn't favourite. Apart from the POOMAs described below it wasn't much of a day for having a go. I was really glad to see the ACT race club name a race in honour of late racecaller, Tony Campbell. He was one of the true gentlemen of the turf and he would have been really touched by the event. I wonder whether he ever knew how much he was really appreciated? He was a very self deprecating sort of guy that never had a bad word for anyone and was always ready to help both with the race club and in many community activities all around Canberra. He was, in fact, the first racecaller to call a horse I owned winning about 10 years ago at the Canberra track. Long may the race named in his honour be run and won by good horses.
POOMAs: 1 from 2 yesterday. Preceptor copped a check after the start and went back to last, quite a long way off the pack. Nash Rawiller made a long run that ended in him finishing 2nd. He couldn't have beaten the winner with a clean getaway but he should have finished much closer. Tamavian was slightly slowly away but punched up inside the field, was right there on the corner and went to the line a comfortable 1.5L winner. She paid $2.20, which I thought was well and truly overs, and gave us a small profit for the day.
LOTD: Hot Pink started a $3 favourite, had an absolutely glorious run, hit the front 200m out at the top of the straight, spat the dummy out and ran an 8 length 2nd to the one we'd highlighted, Camille With Class that paid a nice $4.
Friday, August 25, 2006
SELECTIONS - 25 August 2006
POOMA selections:
Monington 1-10 Preceptor
Mornington 3-12 Tamavian
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Canberra 8-8
Scone 6-5, 8-4
Townsville 2-1
Lay of the Day: Mornington 6-8 Hot Pink $2.70; beat Camille With Class last start and meets that horse worse here. The heavy track can sometimes even up that sort of change, as fitness plays a large part, but Hot Pink is coming off a 22 day break and Camille With Class 8 days, which might be the telling factor at the end of the rac - [LOTD 17 from 20]
Today: Another poorish day for a punt. I commented recently that Mornington always seems to have a wet track (in fact, there are more wet tracks there than dry) and, sure enough, the programming of the Mornington meeting has broken the mini drought over the last few weeks. I think that 10-Preceptor will go close in race 1. He was deep all the way last time and boxed on well. 3-12 Tamavian gets everything to suit with the inside draw and 3kg claim, and comes out of a good race in which Bingham finished 3rd. Is listed at $2.40 on the morning line but I'd expect her to start odds on. At Townsville the southerners first up are 3-1 Lord Rubenstein, 4-3 Medowie Storm and 4-7 Sweep On By. They're all 5YO geldings and any market move, especially for Lord Rubenstein should be followed. Gee, Crafty King gets in well in race 6. He's down 1.5kg after the claim on his win over the very good Sea Zulu over 1000m here last time. He steps up to 1200m, which on paper looks to be the end of his range, which might help his price stay around the $3 mark. Danger is 8-Prince Of Steel who steps into Open company after a good last start 2nd to Rejected. The Scone meeting holds no attraction at all. As I always point out, the all weather surface at Canberra (called the Acton track) has been an outstanding success. Very fair racing on a track that has always been rated good in spite of the weather. There are a few each way chances today that I might have a little go at if the odds are right. 6-4 Power Switch, 7-1 Borradaile and 8-8 Stormberg are all in with strong chances. Race 4 is a terrific field of sprinters. I've won more money on Keltic Flash over the last couple of years than any other horse but I'm not too sure he can knock off the topweight, Kiss My Fuji, who's going for a hat trick here.
Yesterday: Really, nothing to say about yesterday. Racing was poor, along with the weather. Hands in pocket. Wallet nailed shut.
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.
LOTD: Time Lion started at an amazingly short $1.90 and ran 3rd beaten 2L.
Monington 1-10 Preceptor
Mornington 3-12 Tamavian
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Canberra 8-8
Scone 6-5, 8-4
Townsville 2-1
Lay of the Day: Mornington 6-8 Hot Pink $2.70; beat Camille With Class last start and meets that horse worse here. The heavy track can sometimes even up that sort of change, as fitness plays a large part, but Hot Pink is coming off a 22 day break and Camille With Class 8 days, which might be the telling factor at the end of the rac - [LOTD 17 from 20]
Today: Another poorish day for a punt. I commented recently that Mornington always seems to have a wet track (in fact, there are more wet tracks there than dry) and, sure enough, the programming of the Mornington meeting has broken the mini drought over the last few weeks. I think that 10-Preceptor will go close in race 1. He was deep all the way last time and boxed on well. 3-12 Tamavian gets everything to suit with the inside draw and 3kg claim, and comes out of a good race in which Bingham finished 3rd. Is listed at $2.40 on the morning line but I'd expect her to start odds on. At Townsville the southerners first up are 3-1 Lord Rubenstein, 4-3 Medowie Storm and 4-7 Sweep On By. They're all 5YO geldings and any market move, especially for Lord Rubenstein should be followed. Gee, Crafty King gets in well in race 6. He's down 1.5kg after the claim on his win over the very good Sea Zulu over 1000m here last time. He steps up to 1200m, which on paper looks to be the end of his range, which might help his price stay around the $3 mark. Danger is 8-Prince Of Steel who steps into Open company after a good last start 2nd to Rejected. The Scone meeting holds no attraction at all. As I always point out, the all weather surface at Canberra (called the Acton track) has been an outstanding success. Very fair racing on a track that has always been rated good in spite of the weather. There are a few each way chances today that I might have a little go at if the odds are right. 6-4 Power Switch, 7-1 Borradaile and 8-8 Stormberg are all in with strong chances. Race 4 is a terrific field of sprinters. I've won more money on Keltic Flash over the last couple of years than any other horse but I'm not too sure he can knock off the topweight, Kiss My Fuji, who's going for a hat trick here.
Yesterday: Really, nothing to say about yesterday. Racing was poor, along with the weather. Hands in pocket. Wallet nailed shut.
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.
LOTD: Time Lion started at an amazingly short $1.90 and ran 3rd beaten 2L.
Thursday, August 24, 2006
SELECTIONS - 24 August 2006
POOMA selections:
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Lismore 6-2
Sandown 2-5, 3-2
Wyong 1-9
Lay of the Day: Ipswich 3-2 Time Lion $2.10; steps into a Class 1 from a Maiden win in slow time over this course last run - [LOTD 16 from 19]
Today: In stark contrast to yesterday, today is a shocking day for a punt. When Sandown is wet it tends to be a lottery. The two non-POOMA selections would have to be chances though $2.10 Arctic Silver seems way too short. The Wyong meeting is an embarrassment. On an eight race card there are 4 Maiden races, 3 Class 1s and a Class 2. There's nothing that stands out at Lismore, though maybe 5-12 Pathetic is an omen tip and Ipswich is in a similar situation to Wyong with two Class 3 races being the highlight of the day. Even Northam in Western Australia has got into the Maiden-fest programming five of them on an eight race card.
Yesterday: Well, if you couldn't win yesterday then it wasn't my fault! My analysis started with "A good day for a punt, I reckon" and so it turned out with all three POOMAs winning, three of the four legs of the Doomben quaddie with four picks including Momentously at $10 and Pentup winning race 7 nicely at $2.90, which was longer odds than I thought he'd be. That horse can win again, as long as they don't step him up in class too quickly, which I'm sure that his astute trainer, Alan Bailey, will assess correctly. The only thing I really got wrong was at Warwick Farm where Beadman failed to ride a winner (for the first time in ages) and The Duckster missed the start slightly and was always pushed along in the lead but faded to finish 4th. Can't win 'em all, though. From a future viewpoint, I think that most of the winners at the Warwick Farm meeting are worth following, especially the lightly raced ones. That form will hold up. Winning POOMA at Werribee, Valiya, can win again in Class 1 company and can handle a step up to a mile. At Doomben, I was impressed with the performance of Erinaceus in the first race. The Hawkes' galloper stepped up from 1400m to 2020m at only his 2nd run from a spell and came with a strong burst to win. As a racehorse owner I'm always upset when horses fall and am happy to see them get up again unharmed. Such was the case today when Shawcan fell after the post in race 1 at Werribee after clipping the heels of the winner. Nikita Beriman proved what a tough thing she is by (eventually) getting to her feet and giving the crowd a thumbs up. Not so fortunate was Langarza in race 6 which suffered a heart attack and dropped dead with Damien Oliver on board. He was extremely lucky to get off so lightly. Given he lost his father and brother to race falls and he's just returned from a really bad one himself, you'd have to think he's considering his riding future right about now.
POOMAs: Spectacular day for the POOMAs with all three winning. Not A Copy ran up to his first run and got home narrowly at $6. Danequest still has a lot to learn but did enough to win as a $1.80 favourite. I had a whack at Valiya and she had the expected nice run, got to the outside and arrived in time at a very nice $4.80. Since concentrating on Victorian races only on August 1st the POOMAs are 12/26 (46.2% strike rate) at 53.5% profit.
LOTD: Drizzle started $5.10, got an easy lead and gave me heart trouble until about the 50m mark at which point it suffered the same affliction, weakening to finishing 3rd.
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Lismore 6-2
Sandown 2-5, 3-2
Wyong 1-9
Lay of the Day: Ipswich 3-2 Time Lion $2.10; steps into a Class 1 from a Maiden win in slow time over this course last run - [LOTD 16 from 19]
Today: In stark contrast to yesterday, today is a shocking day for a punt. When Sandown is wet it tends to be a lottery. The two non-POOMA selections would have to be chances though $2.10 Arctic Silver seems way too short. The Wyong meeting is an embarrassment. On an eight race card there are 4 Maiden races, 3 Class 1s and a Class 2. There's nothing that stands out at Lismore, though maybe 5-12 Pathetic is an omen tip and Ipswich is in a similar situation to Wyong with two Class 3 races being the highlight of the day. Even Northam in Western Australia has got into the Maiden-fest programming five of them on an eight race card.
Yesterday: Well, if you couldn't win yesterday then it wasn't my fault! My analysis started with "A good day for a punt, I reckon" and so it turned out with all three POOMAs winning, three of the four legs of the Doomben quaddie with four picks including Momentously at $10 and Pentup winning race 7 nicely at $2.90, which was longer odds than I thought he'd be. That horse can win again, as long as they don't step him up in class too quickly, which I'm sure that his astute trainer, Alan Bailey, will assess correctly. The only thing I really got wrong was at Warwick Farm where Beadman failed to ride a winner (for the first time in ages) and The Duckster missed the start slightly and was always pushed along in the lead but faded to finish 4th. Can't win 'em all, though. From a future viewpoint, I think that most of the winners at the Warwick Farm meeting are worth following, especially the lightly raced ones. That form will hold up. Winning POOMA at Werribee, Valiya, can win again in Class 1 company and can handle a step up to a mile. At Doomben, I was impressed with the performance of Erinaceus in the first race. The Hawkes' galloper stepped up from 1400m to 2020m at only his 2nd run from a spell and came with a strong burst to win. As a racehorse owner I'm always upset when horses fall and am happy to see them get up again unharmed. Such was the case today when Shawcan fell after the post in race 1 at Werribee after clipping the heels of the winner. Nikita Beriman proved what a tough thing she is by (eventually) getting to her feet and giving the crowd a thumbs up. Not so fortunate was Langarza in race 6 which suffered a heart attack and dropped dead with Damien Oliver on board. He was extremely lucky to get off so lightly. Given he lost his father and brother to race falls and he's just returned from a really bad one himself, you'd have to think he's considering his riding future right about now.
POOMAs: Spectacular day for the POOMAs with all three winning. Not A Copy ran up to his first run and got home narrowly at $6. Danequest still has a lot to learn but did enough to win as a $1.80 favourite. I had a whack at Valiya and she had the expected nice run, got to the outside and arrived in time at a very nice $4.80. Since concentrating on Victorian races only on August 1st the POOMAs are 12/26 (46.2% strike rate) at 53.5% profit.
LOTD: Drizzle started $5.10, got an easy lead and gave me heart trouble until about the 50m mark at which point it suffered the same affliction, weakening to finishing 3rd.
Wednesday, August 23, 2006
SELECTIONS - 23 August 2006
POOMA selections:
Werribee 1-3 Not A Copy
Werribee 3-12 Danequest
Werribee 7-12 Valiya
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Belmont 2-5, 4-2, 7-2
Doomben 2-2, 3-1, 5-1, 7-3, 8-2, 8-5
Warwick Farm 1-5, 4-7, 6-6, 7-4
Werribe 3-3
Lay of the Day: Werribee 5-1 Drizzle $2.80 - [LOTD 15 from 18]
Today: A good day for a punt, I reckon. In the first at Werribee big grey gelding, 3-Not A Copy, ran a terrific race at his first start in a pretty strong race. He was three deep for the entire trip (though it's not quite as tough at Bendigo as other tracks) with a strong pace and only got collared late. With the Hawkes and Hayes runners coming off city runs this one might be fair value. 3-12 Danequest really looks the goods and I'll be having a crack if he's not too short. 7-12 Valiya drops a million grades here and will be fair odds at around $4 with Entrust in the race. She ran 10th last time but was only beaten 4.4L in a race where they went slow early and sprinted. She started the sprint about 5L off them and finished that distance back so her sprint was as good as the placegetters. I was impressed with Doomben 7-3 Pentup's first up win at his first run since moving north from Sydney. This is no harder and, with the Alan Bailey polish, he should be going close again. On the Beadmanometer I think he'll win two or three races today at Warwick Farm. He rode a double yesterday but should have had three. In race 5, I think that 7-The Duckster will jump and run from the inside gate and be hard to run down.
Yesterday: A quiet day on the punt, as I decided to put the cue in the rack after mistakingly backing 15-Play And Miss instead of 16-Our Eva, which I'd nominated as a horse to watch in the first at Sale. Of course, Our Eva got up in the last hop paying $26 and it was no consolation that Play And Miss was a late scratching so I got my money back. There was some horses worth following from the Sale meeting, I thought. 3-4 Courageous Heart is a Jugah 4YO mare having her first start and she was very strong in her all the way win, drawing away nicely at the end. The two placegetters in race 5, 5-Pillar and 8-King's Causeway also looked pretty good and I'll be following them in their next couple of runs. Beating our POOMA selection was 6-4 Brunelleschi who really sprinted quickly to pick up race favourite, Palmyra Boy. He's by Pientre Celebre who has the highest strike rate of all stallions in the world the last time I checked and looked really well suited to the middle distance journey. He was only having his 8th start and is a 5YO worth following. Up at Rocky, one of our nominated southerners ran 2nd at $30 running the quinella with our non-POOMA selection, Milora Miss. A couple of nice wins at Canterbury by Impeach and Natural Man, the latter proving he's a real Danehill by improving markedly back on the dry track.
POOMAs: Street Classic ran a nice race for 3rd at Sale. It was his first go at a longer trip and I'll be following up on him.
LOTD: Decides was a long way from his $2.70 morning price, starting at $8. He showed pace to the turn but was beaten at the 200m mark.
Werribee 1-3 Not A Copy
Werribee 3-12 Danequest
Werribee 7-12 Valiya
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Belmont 2-5, 4-2, 7-2
Doomben 2-2, 3-1, 5-1, 7-3, 8-2, 8-5
Warwick Farm 1-5, 4-7, 6-6, 7-4
Werribe 3-3
Lay of the Day: Werribee 5-1 Drizzle $2.80 - [LOTD 15 from 18]
Today: A good day for a punt, I reckon. In the first at Werribee big grey gelding, 3-Not A Copy, ran a terrific race at his first start in a pretty strong race. He was three deep for the entire trip (though it's not quite as tough at Bendigo as other tracks) with a strong pace and only got collared late. With the Hawkes and Hayes runners coming off city runs this one might be fair value. 3-12 Danequest really looks the goods and I'll be having a crack if he's not too short. 7-12 Valiya drops a million grades here and will be fair odds at around $4 with Entrust in the race. She ran 10th last time but was only beaten 4.4L in a race where they went slow early and sprinted. She started the sprint about 5L off them and finished that distance back so her sprint was as good as the placegetters. I was impressed with Doomben 7-3 Pentup's first up win at his first run since moving north from Sydney. This is no harder and, with the Alan Bailey polish, he should be going close again. On the Beadmanometer I think he'll win two or three races today at Warwick Farm. He rode a double yesterday but should have had three. In race 5, I think that 7-The Duckster will jump and run from the inside gate and be hard to run down.
Yesterday: A quiet day on the punt, as I decided to put the cue in the rack after mistakingly backing 15-Play And Miss instead of 16-Our Eva, which I'd nominated as a horse to watch in the first at Sale. Of course, Our Eva got up in the last hop paying $26 and it was no consolation that Play And Miss was a late scratching so I got my money back. There was some horses worth following from the Sale meeting, I thought. 3-4 Courageous Heart is a Jugah 4YO mare having her first start and she was very strong in her all the way win, drawing away nicely at the end. The two placegetters in race 5, 5-Pillar and 8-King's Causeway also looked pretty good and I'll be following them in their next couple of runs. Beating our POOMA selection was 6-4 Brunelleschi who really sprinted quickly to pick up race favourite, Palmyra Boy. He's by Pientre Celebre who has the highest strike rate of all stallions in the world the last time I checked and looked really well suited to the middle distance journey. He was only having his 8th start and is a 5YO worth following. Up at Rocky, one of our nominated southerners ran 2nd at $30 running the quinella with our non-POOMA selection, Milora Miss. A couple of nice wins at Canterbury by Impeach and Natural Man, the latter proving he's a real Danehill by improving markedly back on the dry track.
POOMAs: Street Classic ran a nice race for 3rd at Sale. It was his first go at a longer trip and I'll be following up on him.
LOTD: Decides was a long way from his $2.70 morning price, starting at $8. He showed pace to the turn but was beaten at the 200m mark.
Tuesday, August 22, 2006
SELECTIONS - 22 August 2006
POOMA selections:
Sale 6-1 Street Classic
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Canterbury 2-1, 4-14, 5-6
Rockhampton 6-3, 7-2
Sale 2-4, 5-3, 7-8
Lay of the Day: Canterbury 4-2 Decides $2.70; back from Class 3 to Maiden and started 7/4 in that stronger race. Gets a dry track here, which might help but wide gate and weight rise is against - [LOTD 14 from 17]
Today: As usual up at Rocky it's worth looking at southern horses having their first starts there. 7-3 Bliss Miss and 7-9 Wicca Wedding are both in that category and look to have a real chance in this race. I reckon that 8-9 Kai Cibo might show a return to form, as well. She came back from nearly a year off and was only beaten 3.4L behind Craiglea Emma, which was not a bad effort under the circumstances. Our POOMA selection at Sale, Street Classic, steps up from a couple of 1400m wins to the 1715m today. He has been finishing his races very strongly so that should suit. The danger might be 10-Amber Folly who has been running on in her two starts since a spell including behind Street Classic last start. A couple of others I'll watch the prices of at Sale are 1-16 Our Eva, 3-Wumara and 5-1 Bialystock. The best jockey since George Moore, Darren Beadman, has a good book of rides and it wouldn't surprise to see him ride 3 or 4 winners. I'll have a bit of an e/w all up on the selections above.
Yesterday: Gawd. I got all confident and played the Wangaratta quaddie yesterday on the basis that I thought it was gettable and the dividend would be big. Started off nicely with a $44 shot, got the $6 next leg and then missed the 3rd leg. It paid $44K. That's the third time I've done that in the last week and a bit. In the first race there a Matthew Ellerton first starter, Sunburnt Land, was backed confidently and got the chokkies easily. He's by Scenic, who was a really good sire, and I'm sure he'll go on to win in town. Apart from that there was nothing I saw that was worth following. BTW - my antipathy towards Muswellbrook is so profound that I spelled it incorrectly, giving it an extra 's', as in 'boo hiss'.
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.
LOTD: Good Red was $2 on the morning line (after scratchings), started $4.40 and didn't run a place, being beaten by the one I fancied, Nearctic Crossing.
Sale 6-1 Street Classic
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Canterbury 2-1, 4-14, 5-6
Rockhampton 6-3, 7-2
Sale 2-4, 5-3, 7-8
Lay of the Day: Canterbury 4-2 Decides $2.70; back from Class 3 to Maiden and started 7/4 in that stronger race. Gets a dry track here, which might help but wide gate and weight rise is against - [LOTD 14 from 17]
Today: As usual up at Rocky it's worth looking at southern horses having their first starts there. 7-3 Bliss Miss and 7-9 Wicca Wedding are both in that category and look to have a real chance in this race. I reckon that 8-9 Kai Cibo might show a return to form, as well. She came back from nearly a year off and was only beaten 3.4L behind Craiglea Emma, which was not a bad effort under the circumstances. Our POOMA selection at Sale, Street Classic, steps up from a couple of 1400m wins to the 1715m today. He has been finishing his races very strongly so that should suit. The danger might be 10-Amber Folly who has been running on in her two starts since a spell including behind Street Classic last start. A couple of others I'll watch the prices of at Sale are 1-16 Our Eva, 3-Wumara and 5-1 Bialystock. The best jockey since George Moore, Darren Beadman, has a good book of rides and it wouldn't surprise to see him ride 3 or 4 winners. I'll have a bit of an e/w all up on the selections above.
Yesterday: Gawd. I got all confident and played the Wangaratta quaddie yesterday on the basis that I thought it was gettable and the dividend would be big. Started off nicely with a $44 shot, got the $6 next leg and then missed the 3rd leg. It paid $44K. That's the third time I've done that in the last week and a bit. In the first race there a Matthew Ellerton first starter, Sunburnt Land, was backed confidently and got the chokkies easily. He's by Scenic, who was a really good sire, and I'm sure he'll go on to win in town. Apart from that there was nothing I saw that was worth following. BTW - my antipathy towards Muswellbrook is so profound that I spelled it incorrectly, giving it an extra 's', as in 'boo hiss'.
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.
LOTD: Good Red was $2 on the morning line (after scratchings), started $4.40 and didn't run a place, being beaten by the one I fancied, Nearctic Crossing.
Monday, August 21, 2006
SELECTIONS - 21 August 2006
POOMA selections:
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Wangaratta 5-5, 9-1
Lay of the Day: Wangaratta 2-3 Good Red $2.00; ran a nice 2nd last time but I'm potting him because 1) I think Nearctic Crossing will win and 2) his trainer, Luke Oliver, only has a 6% strike rate - [LOTD 13 from 16]
Today: Wangaratta and Musswellbrook are the only two meetings. The only things I can say about Musswellbrook are: I know where it is; I've had a horse race and win there; and I've never been able to pick a winner there. So you're on your own with that one. Wangaratta is not much better, really. In race 6 there's an interesting runner, 2-Ching Hoi Boy, who has done his racing in Hong Kong and has the unenviable record of 30 starts for only 7 placings but with an amazing $155,178 in prizemoney. He's first up at 1600m for good trainer Andrew Payne in a field that doesn't have a remarkable depth of talent so if there's any money for him then he might be worth a bet.
Yesterday: Zupaone showed that he's a pretty fair sprinter with a nice first up win. I doubt he's up to Black Type races but he should always be competitive in city sprints. Eskaw was heavily backed in race 3 and won very comfortably. It's hard to guage how far she can go but if she's backed confidently in any race she's in then I'd probably follow her. The quaddie was a tad tricky. Holding had his first start for David Hayes who managed to get him back to winning form, which put the final nail in most quaddie coffins. De Kolta had the run everyone expected, got out at the right time and won nicely. He can step up to Saturday class. Up north, good galloper, Juerga, carried 61.5kg to win the Narromine Cup and at Taree Mr Gold Flyer won his 3rd race in a row with another emphatic victory. His record is a handy 24-8-6 and I'd think he could get away with a midweek staying event in the city.
POOMAs: Bit of an off day for the selections with only one placegetter. I was quite confident about Anhinga but it turned out that the outside rail was not the place to be, as was shown by later straight races, and she was always struggling. She ran quite a good race in the circumstances and I'd follow up on her. Archie Senior ran up to win at the 200m but looked like he failed to get the 1700m trip and I'd think he's better off back at 1400-1500m. Temporalay didn't show the dash he has at the 300m of his last couple of starts but ran well for 4th and Living End at St Arnaud was held up before charging home for 2nd.
LOTD: Living Hell started 2nd favourite and was always off the bit on what turned out to be the wrong part of the track.
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Wangaratta 5-5, 9-1
Lay of the Day: Wangaratta 2-3 Good Red $2.00; ran a nice 2nd last time but I'm potting him because 1) I think Nearctic Crossing will win and 2) his trainer, Luke Oliver, only has a 6% strike rate - [LOTD 13 from 16]
Today: Wangaratta and Musswellbrook are the only two meetings. The only things I can say about Musswellbrook are: I know where it is; I've had a horse race and win there; and I've never been able to pick a winner there. So you're on your own with that one. Wangaratta is not much better, really. In race 6 there's an interesting runner, 2-Ching Hoi Boy, who has done his racing in Hong Kong and has the unenviable record of 30 starts for only 7 placings but with an amazing $155,178 in prizemoney. He's first up at 1600m for good trainer Andrew Payne in a field that doesn't have a remarkable depth of talent so if there's any money for him then he might be worth a bet.
Yesterday: Zupaone showed that he's a pretty fair sprinter with a nice first up win. I doubt he's up to Black Type races but he should always be competitive in city sprints. Eskaw was heavily backed in race 3 and won very comfortably. It's hard to guage how far she can go but if she's backed confidently in any race she's in then I'd probably follow her. The quaddie was a tad tricky. Holding had his first start for David Hayes who managed to get him back to winning form, which put the final nail in most quaddie coffins. De Kolta had the run everyone expected, got out at the right time and won nicely. He can step up to Saturday class. Up north, good galloper, Juerga, carried 61.5kg to win the Narromine Cup and at Taree Mr Gold Flyer won his 3rd race in a row with another emphatic victory. His record is a handy 24-8-6 and I'd think he could get away with a midweek staying event in the city.
POOMAs: Bit of an off day for the selections with only one placegetter. I was quite confident about Anhinga but it turned out that the outside rail was not the place to be, as was shown by later straight races, and she was always struggling. She ran quite a good race in the circumstances and I'd follow up on her. Archie Senior ran up to win at the 200m but looked like he failed to get the 1700m trip and I'd think he's better off back at 1400-1500m. Temporalay didn't show the dash he has at the 300m of his last couple of starts but ran well for 4th and Living End at St Arnaud was held up before charging home for 2nd.
LOTD: Living Hell started 2nd favourite and was always off the bit on what turned out to be the wrong part of the track.
Sunday, August 20, 2006
SELECTIONS - 20 August 2006
POOMA selections:
Flemington 1-8 Anhinga
Flemington 4-4 Archie Senior
Flemington 7-11 Temporalay
St Arnaud 7-2 Test Fire
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Flemington 2-2, 4-11, 5-1, 5-2, 5-7, 7-5, 7-10, 8-5
Launceston 4-6, 4-7, 4-8
Narromine 4-5
St Arnaud 8-6
Sunshine Coast 6-4
Lay of the Day: Flemington 3-2 Living Hell $2.30; talented mare from the Freedman stable that started 2/7 and 4/13 in her two wins. She's had it reasonably easy in front so far and there's much more pace in this race. The 58kg is also a fair whack though she's a big lump of a thing. - [LOTD 12 from 15]
Today: Not a bad day to have a go if you like something. Of the POOMAs, Archie Senior led throughout to win last time over 1500m here on Wednesday. Backs up quickly and steps up to 1740m but most of his serious competition is also up in trip. The danger looks to be Jeune's Edge who comes to hand quickly and Captain Zero. I expect Anhinga to go close in race 1. She romped in at her first start at Mornington and then ran a length behind Nediym's Glow (who should have won the Listed fillies' race yesterday) at Group 3 level in the Blue Diamond Prelude. Her run before a spell saw her lead the field up as a $1.65 favourite before running second to Corton Charlamagne. The number of winners that have come out of Corton Charlamagne's races is amazing and I think this will keep that record going. In race 7, Temporalay looks very well placed again by trainer Trudy Kelly. He's won his last 4 starts, is 5/6 at the trip (the miss being his first start in a race) and Jason Benbow has won 6/8 on him (all his winning races) so I can't see why he won't go close again. Danger might be Wishmaster who ran a narrow 2nd to Temporalay two starts back and Swish Trish who's first up from a spell for Lee Freedman. At St Arnaud, 7-2 Test Fire is first up in the easiest race he's been in for a few runs. This is not a strong race, he's drawn well and gets in with not much weight after the claim.
Yesterday: Overall, I was happy with my analysis of Caulfield where I had 5 winners in my 3 selections per race. I missed the quaddie there due to underestimating how good Pompeii Ruler is. Paid a handy $18K, too. The most amazing win I've seen in a long time was that of Haradasun. Back last well into the straight, he unleashed a paralyzing burst to catch the very talented Sharkbite eliciting positive comparisons with his half brother, Elvstroem. To understand what a truly amazing win it was you need to have a look at the sectional times from his race and compare to other races on the day. The following are his last 600/400/200 sections compared to the 2nd best from all races run on the card: 33.19/33.92; 22.03/22.41; 11.12/11.24. Ladies and Gentlemen, that is outstanding and heralds the arrival of a special horse. If he doesn't go on and win a bunch of Group races then I'll go whee. That 22.41/11.24 section belongs to a horse that might be a surprise to many people but it was 3rd placegetter in the CF Orr, Our Smoking Joe. He has obviously returned in excellent fettle to reel off those numbers. Other very notable performances on the day came from Truly Wicked in race 7 who clocked 34.33/22.78/11.63 and Sharkbite who ran 33.93/22.87/11.59. One that ran way above himself, I thought, was Zigotto who clocked 22.41 for his last 400. Not bad for a horse that started at 60/1. In the first race, Lion's Gate did pretty well to win after Delvecchio set a pretty strong pace. Shinko Blu, which I was really keen on, got shuffled back and was never a chance from there. La Vie Amour won but there's no doubt that Nediym's Glow should have given it was 3 deep the entire trip and went down a head. Truly Wicked ran a very nice race to win and good sections, too. She's probably not up to the really good sprint races but if she stays in this sort of class she can win again. Storm Alert was very strong in winning the last race. She's one of the very few Metal Storms never to have raced in Western Australia. At Rosehill our tips did well with Crosswire, who was really heavily backed late, winning in the last hop after having a scuffle to get a run and Private Dan ran 3rd in the last at double figure odds.
POOMAs: One winner from the 4 POOMA selections yesterday was Truly Wicked, which was heavily backed on the basis of her previous first up form in much stronger races, as I had spotted. She paid $5.40 giving us a profit for the day and taking the POOMAs to 9/18 since I started concentrating on Victorian races only.
LOTD: Craiglea Bob ended up starting at $5 and never looked like running a place.
Flemington 1-8 Anhinga
Flemington 4-4 Archie Senior
Flemington 7-11 Temporalay
St Arnaud 7-2 Test Fire
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Flemington 2-2, 4-11, 5-1, 5-2, 5-7, 7-5, 7-10, 8-5
Launceston 4-6, 4-7, 4-8
Narromine 4-5
St Arnaud 8-6
Sunshine Coast 6-4
Lay of the Day: Flemington 3-2 Living Hell $2.30; talented mare from the Freedman stable that started 2/7 and 4/13 in her two wins. She's had it reasonably easy in front so far and there's much more pace in this race. The 58kg is also a fair whack though she's a big lump of a thing. - [LOTD 12 from 15]
Today: Not a bad day to have a go if you like something. Of the POOMAs, Archie Senior led throughout to win last time over 1500m here on Wednesday. Backs up quickly and steps up to 1740m but most of his serious competition is also up in trip. The danger looks to be Jeune's Edge who comes to hand quickly and Captain Zero. I expect Anhinga to go close in race 1. She romped in at her first start at Mornington and then ran a length behind Nediym's Glow (who should have won the Listed fillies' race yesterday) at Group 3 level in the Blue Diamond Prelude. Her run before a spell saw her lead the field up as a $1.65 favourite before running second to Corton Charlamagne. The number of winners that have come out of Corton Charlamagne's races is amazing and I think this will keep that record going. In race 7, Temporalay looks very well placed again by trainer Trudy Kelly. He's won his last 4 starts, is 5/6 at the trip (the miss being his first start in a race) and Jason Benbow has won 6/8 on him (all his winning races) so I can't see why he won't go close again. Danger might be Wishmaster who ran a narrow 2nd to Temporalay two starts back and Swish Trish who's first up from a spell for Lee Freedman. At St Arnaud, 7-2 Test Fire is first up in the easiest race he's been in for a few runs. This is not a strong race, he's drawn well and gets in with not much weight after the claim.
Yesterday: Overall, I was happy with my analysis of Caulfield where I had 5 winners in my 3 selections per race. I missed the quaddie there due to underestimating how good Pompeii Ruler is. Paid a handy $18K, too. The most amazing win I've seen in a long time was that of Haradasun. Back last well into the straight, he unleashed a paralyzing burst to catch the very talented Sharkbite eliciting positive comparisons with his half brother, Elvstroem. To understand what a truly amazing win it was you need to have a look at the sectional times from his race and compare to other races on the day. The following are his last 600/400/200 sections compared to the 2nd best from all races run on the card: 33.19/33.92; 22.03/22.41; 11.12/11.24. Ladies and Gentlemen, that is outstanding and heralds the arrival of a special horse. If he doesn't go on and win a bunch of Group races then I'll go whee. That 22.41/11.24 section belongs to a horse that might be a surprise to many people but it was 3rd placegetter in the CF Orr, Our Smoking Joe. He has obviously returned in excellent fettle to reel off those numbers. Other very notable performances on the day came from Truly Wicked in race 7 who clocked 34.33/22.78/11.63 and Sharkbite who ran 33.93/22.87/11.59. One that ran way above himself, I thought, was Zigotto who clocked 22.41 for his last 400. Not bad for a horse that started at 60/1. In the first race, Lion's Gate did pretty well to win after Delvecchio set a pretty strong pace. Shinko Blu, which I was really keen on, got shuffled back and was never a chance from there. La Vie Amour won but there's no doubt that Nediym's Glow should have given it was 3 deep the entire trip and went down a head. Truly Wicked ran a very nice race to win and good sections, too. She's probably not up to the really good sprint races but if she stays in this sort of class she can win again. Storm Alert was very strong in winning the last race. She's one of the very few Metal Storms never to have raced in Western Australia. At Rosehill our tips did well with Crosswire, who was really heavily backed late, winning in the last hop after having a scuffle to get a run and Private Dan ran 3rd in the last at double figure odds.
POOMAs: One winner from the 4 POOMA selections yesterday was Truly Wicked, which was heavily backed on the basis of her previous first up form in much stronger races, as I had spotted. She paid $5.40 giving us a profit for the day and taking the POOMAs to 9/18 since I started concentrating on Victorian races only.
LOTD: Craiglea Bob ended up starting at $5 and never looked like running a place.
Saturday, August 19, 2006
SELECTIONS - 19 August 2006
POOMA selections:
Caulfield 3-4 Shinko Blue
Caulfield 5-1 Kaphero
Caulfield 7-13 Truly Wicked
Caulfield 8-14 Recline
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Belmont 3-2, 6-12
Caulfield 1-2, 4-5, 4-6, 4-7, 5-1, 6-2, 8-12, 8-14
Doomben 1-5, 2-9, 6-8
Gold Coast 8-3
Kembla 2-1
Kilmore 8-10
Morphettville 4-4, 6-3
Rosehill 2-2, 3-8, 4-10, 4-11, 7-1
Lay of the Day: Doomben 1-2 Craiglea Bob $2.90 hasn't won at the track and hasn't won since June '05 at Barcaldine (!), which followed wins at Longreach (!), Blackall (!) and Tambo (!) so happy to pot him today - [LOTD 11 from 14]
Today: At Rosehill I expect 4-6 Crosswise to improve significantly back onto the dry track. He has a heap of talent and will be about $5. 8-9 Private Dan is very well placed, as well, and goes into the race in good form.
I've done the form for all the races at Caulfield, as follows:
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.
LOTD: Cashew was $2.60 on the morning line, started $5 and ran 2nd last so you'd have to think that it can't be sound.
Caulfield 3-4 Shinko Blue
Caulfield 5-1 Kaphero
Caulfield 7-13 Truly Wicked
Caulfield 8-14 Recline
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Belmont 3-2, 6-12
Caulfield 1-2, 4-5, 4-6, 4-7, 5-1, 6-2, 8-12, 8-14
Doomben 1-5, 2-9, 6-8
Gold Coast 8-3
Kembla 2-1
Kilmore 8-10
Morphettville 4-4, 6-3
Rosehill 2-2, 3-8, 4-10, 4-11, 7-1
Lay of the Day: Doomben 1-2 Craiglea Bob $2.90 hasn't won at the track and hasn't won since June '05 at Barcaldine (!), which followed wins at Longreach (!), Blackall (!) and Tambo (!) so happy to pot him today - [LOTD 11 from 14]
Today: At Rosehill I expect 4-6 Crosswise to improve significantly back onto the dry track. He has a heap of talent and will be about $5. 8-9 Private Dan is very well placed, as well, and goes into the race in good form.
I've done the form for all the races at Caulfield, as follows:
Race 1: 9-Lion's Gate will start favourite, which means you'll need to take shorter odds about a horse that's won 2 races against horses with much better win records. Also, he hasn't won since the Geelong Derby Trial in October '04 so I'm going to pick against him though it wouldn't surprise me if he won. Desert Master is pretty well placed first up and it's only been a couple of months since he competed in the Brisbane Cup so the 2000m will be fine, and Sarjun was a bit unlucky last time. In an even race, I'll go 11-Sarjun; 4-Desert Master; 9-Lion's Gate
Race 2: Hunter Hermitage will put the speed in this race, of course, which will set it up for the run on types. 1-Tawqeet has 59.5kg after the claim and that seems too close to the rest of them, for mine. He should power home late to win. Haddle McDaddle will get a good run and go close and Pie Oh My and Roadhog look the only other chances. I think that Caprizzi Strip won't get its own way in front like it did last time, which will cruell its chances. I'll go 1-Tawqeet, 7-Haddle McDaddle; 6-Roadhog
Race 3: I really like 4-Shinko Blu in this race. Off a hot pace, she didn't quite finish off the mile trip last time under 58kg at Werribee, tiring late. She's much better suited back to seven furlongs and with the claim gets in with just 53kg. She'll position handy and is an outstanding e/w chance. Purde is a good quality mare from the Hayes' camp and this looks a pretty good race to begin her spring campaign. First up last time in Empress Lily ran 3rd in Group 3 Fillies' company behind Apache Cat over 1400m so sneaking in here with just 54.5kg puts her right in the race. Diamond Masque, Soleil and Honest Polly look like setting a reasonable tempo with Shinko Blu stalking them into the straight. 4-Shinko Blu; 3-Purde; 1-Empress Lily
Race 4: The question here is whether La Vie Amour is up to these better fillies given she's got fitness on her side and has been running quick times. Peter Moody seems to think so but I don't. De Lago Mist is an outstanding filly that raced in the best of company last time in. Whether the 1100m is a tad short is the question. Another terrific filly is Nediym's Glow whose only real failure was in the Blue Diamond on a bog track. She's the speed in the race. Ulfah has a terrific turn of foot and has had a history of finding trouble; if everything goes well for her today then she could go close. Satin Robes was close to Nediym's Glow when they met last time in and is going to get the gun run. 2-Nediym's Glow; 7-Satin Robes; 1-De Lago Mist
Race 5: The first leg of the quaddie is pretty tough, as there are so many good horse returning from a spell and with different form lines. Kaphero looks like leading and there doesn't look to be a huge amount of speed apart from him. Sharkbite will sit right behind him from the inside draw and might be able to step up to this better grade. If you missed Haradasun's win at Swan Hill then it's your loss. He's a half brother to Elvstroem being out of Circles Of Gold (I won over $28K when she ran 2nd in the Caulfield Cup to Arctic Scent with Iron Horse 3rd) and looks like adding to the family's silverware. He settled back in about 7th spot over 1300m at Swan Hill, came into the race on the corner, took over about 250m out and put 10L on them being eased down over the concluding stages. Sure, it wasn't much of a race but it was one of those performances that sticks in one's memory (reminds me of the day Show No Emotion had his first start and did a similar thing, pity he was unsound). Back to 1100m might not help his cause but he'll be charging late. Conformator hasn't drawn well but I think he has a sneaky place hope at odds and, of course, Churchill Downs has to be respected. 1-Kaphero; 8-Sharkbite; 14-Haradasun
Race 6: Minson looks to get a soft lead here in a race in which he'll start favourite for the first time in his life. The only real negative is that new jockey, Damien Oliver, has chosen an inopportune time to have a run of outs in the city, not having ridden a winner in 30 rides. Lad Of The Manor has drawn wide (again) in a 1400m Group race at Caulfield. He won this race first up last year on the wet track from barrier 11 and then drew 13 when 2nd first up in the CF Orr in the Autumn. He sat three deep for the entire trip in both of those runs. He'll need to press forward and I expect him to sit outside Minson today. Red Dazzler will position behind those two with Maybe Better. De Beers ran 3rd first up last time in at Randwick behind Flying Pegasus but had a soft run on the fence and never threatened the winner. From the wide gate I can't see him having the dash to win here, as I expect the winner to be in the first four around the corner. 8-Minson; 1-Lad Of The Manor; 14-Serenade Rose
Race 7: I'd be surprised if one of Surprise Impact, Blahnik, Temple Hills, Truly Wicked or Canary Islands didn't win this race (though good luck to my mate Paul who has King Charles running). Truly Wicked may only have a 3/20 record but she's been running around in black type company for two years now and this is the easiest race she's been in during that time. First up last time in she charged home for 2nd to the very good mare, Beautiful Gem, in a Listed race for mares here carrying 57kg. Her previous two first up runs to that were narrow 2nds to Strikeline and Super Elegant. She sneaks in here with 51.5kg, Daniel Moor is in good form and she should get a good run from gate 8. Blahnik is a very good Adelaide sprinter who's 2 from 2 first up and is going to get a gun run from his good draw. Surprise Impact has disappointed me at his last couple of runs but has everything to suit today. Canary Islands is in the same category while Temple Hills is a good class NZ mare first up for the Moody-Nolen Juggernaut. 13-Truly Wicked; 8-Blahnik; 7-Surprise Impact
Race 8: If Rewaaya doesn't win then there's a whole heap that can. She ran a length 4th behind Takeover Target in the Lightning first up last time in a race where God's Own ran 2nd and Cape Of Good Hope 3rd. Not a bad race, that. The issue I have with her is that she always starts strongly in the market and hasn't won in her last 7 starts after winning her first 3. Recline is another from The Juggernaut who will press to the lead from her wide gate. She's 3 from 3 first up and is going to get an OK lead here. Vienetta is a very good NZ mare who comes out of a Group 1 race there last time. Pinezero ran 4th last time and was a bit unlucky but really didn't zip home when she got clear but she's a talented mare and has drawn to get a good run. Lake Charlotte is a pretty good performer from the Freedman camp, as is stablemate Storm Alert. Tough race, really. 14-Recline; 9-Rewaaya; 10-Storm Alert
Summary: I'm pretty keen on a few mares each way today. 3-4 Shinko Blu, 7-13 Truly Wicked and 8-14 Recine.
Yesterday: Fraschetti won at Cranbourne quite softly by 3/4L though the time wasn't that quick but she looks to have some scope to go on. Alan Bailey's Injebreck must have talent but be unsound, as he started $2.80 favourite, had a good run but didn't go on in the straight, finishing 8th. I'd put a line through it forever. Nothing else stood out from the rest of the races though Late Change won nicely in the last at Cranbourne and might be up to much better races.
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.
LOTD: Cashew was $2.60 on the morning line, started $5 and ran 2nd last so you'd have to think that it can't be sound.
Friday, August 18, 2006
SELECTIONS - 18 August 2006
POOMA selections:
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Cranbourne 4-7
Ipswich 4-7
Lay of the Day: Cranbourne 4-2 Cashew $2.60; started 7/4 favourite when tailed off behind Jumlah in a Listed race at its only start. Underwent a vet's examination and was passed fit to run that day so people might follow up on it - [LOTD 10 from 13]
Today: Not much of a day to have a go, I reckon. At Goulburn I'd watch the Nick Olive and Matthew Dale trained runners, as both of them have good strike rates. At Ipswich I'd watch runners from the usual suspects, Alan Bailey and Shaun Dwyer, who have a few chances today. Fraschetti might be good odds in race 4 at Cranbourne with Cashew in the race. Other than that, I'll spend the time looking at tomorrow's form.
Yesterday: Sea Zulu went out a $1.70 favourite at Townsville with his 59kg and was narrowly beaten by the very good sprinter, Crafty King, who carried 58.5kg. Sea Zulu had won 7 from 10 and Crafty King 11 from 28 but that also included 7 of his last 10 most of those at the 1000m trip whereas Sea Zulu, coming off a couple of 1200m runs, wasn't quite sharp enough at the finish. None of that changes my opinion that Sea Zulu is easily up to metropolitan Saturday class but he wasn't entitled to be odds on with Crafty King in the race yesterday. The two I picked out in race 3 finished 2nd and 3rd with On Bail narrowly missing out. As I always point out, watch for southern horses having their first run up in Far North Queensland. The one I picked out at Northam, Underestimated, didn't handle the step up in grade, though I don't think that racing on the pace suited it at all.
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.
LOTD: Freaky Kontiki started at $5.80, which is longer than we look for (picks must be less than $3 on the morning line after scratchings), and led for a fair while before being run down and finishing a good 2nd.
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Cranbourne 4-7
Ipswich 4-7
Lay of the Day: Cranbourne 4-2 Cashew $2.60; started 7/4 favourite when tailed off behind Jumlah in a Listed race at its only start. Underwent a vet's examination and was passed fit to run that day so people might follow up on it - [LOTD 10 from 13]
Today: Not much of a day to have a go, I reckon. At Goulburn I'd watch the Nick Olive and Matthew Dale trained runners, as both of them have good strike rates. At Ipswich I'd watch runners from the usual suspects, Alan Bailey and Shaun Dwyer, who have a few chances today. Fraschetti might be good odds in race 4 at Cranbourne with Cashew in the race. Other than that, I'll spend the time looking at tomorrow's form.
Yesterday: Sea Zulu went out a $1.70 favourite at Townsville with his 59kg and was narrowly beaten by the very good sprinter, Crafty King, who carried 58.5kg. Sea Zulu had won 7 from 10 and Crafty King 11 from 28 but that also included 7 of his last 10 most of those at the 1000m trip whereas Sea Zulu, coming off a couple of 1200m runs, wasn't quite sharp enough at the finish. None of that changes my opinion that Sea Zulu is easily up to metropolitan Saturday class but he wasn't entitled to be odds on with Crafty King in the race yesterday. The two I picked out in race 3 finished 2nd and 3rd with On Bail narrowly missing out. As I always point out, watch for southern horses having their first run up in Far North Queensland. The one I picked out at Northam, Underestimated, didn't handle the step up in grade, though I don't think that racing on the pace suited it at all.
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.
LOTD: Freaky Kontiki started at $5.80, which is longer than we look for (picks must be less than $3 on the morning line after scratchings), and led for a fair while before being run down and finishing a good 2nd.
Thursday, August 17, 2006
SELECTIONS - 17 August 2006
POOMA selections:
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Hawkesbury 5-4, 5-9
Townsville 6-1
Northam 5-2
Lay of the Day: Northam 4-2 Freaky Kontiki $2.90 - [LOTD 9 from 12]
Today: Last start POOMA winner, Sea Zulu, has been asked to carry 59kg in an Open 1000m sprint at Townsville. This horse is clearly up to Saturday city class but he's meeting horses on much worse weight terms than previous runs. He has won under 60.5kg in 2YO company but I wouldn't be taking odds on today. There are a couple of southern horses making their debuts up north in race 3. 1-On Bail and 5-Nothin Leica Girl both have good enough form to feature here. Normally, I wouldn't be keen to back a horse stepping into a Class 1 race after a last start Maiden win however Northam 5-2 Underestimated won very well here last week over this trip and I expect that up and coming star apprentice, Jessica Hill, will be able to overcome her wide barrier. Comes out of a few really good systems and might be nice odds, too.
Yesterday: Not a bad day's analysis overall. Jacqueline Rouge got things off to a good start at Sandown though the $4 odds were shorter than I thought it would be. Then Irish Loup and Loup Rouge completed the Loup Sauvage (and stable and owners) quinella at Quirindi, paying $2.70. I stuffed up, as the winner, Irish Loup, should have been a POOMA. It came out of the super system that up until yesterday had picked 18 winners from 25 live selections at 50% profit. Tacsai got too far back and ran home strongly but couldn't pick up the placegetters and up north, My Son Day was backed as if unbeatable and won by 3L at around $4. Over in the west a horse having its first start beat experienced rivas who had won 4 and 5 races. Seafarer is very well bred 4YO entire, being by Scenic out of Miss Margaret, and I'll predict that he will go on to much better things.
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.
LOTD: French Tycoon started a $2.40 favourite and never looked like catching the winner.
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Hawkesbury 5-4, 5-9
Townsville 6-1
Northam 5-2
Lay of the Day: Northam 4-2 Freaky Kontiki $2.90 - [LOTD 9 from 12]
Today: Last start POOMA winner, Sea Zulu, has been asked to carry 59kg in an Open 1000m sprint at Townsville. This horse is clearly up to Saturday city class but he's meeting horses on much worse weight terms than previous runs. He has won under 60.5kg in 2YO company but I wouldn't be taking odds on today. There are a couple of southern horses making their debuts up north in race 3. 1-On Bail and 5-Nothin Leica Girl both have good enough form to feature here. Normally, I wouldn't be keen to back a horse stepping into a Class 1 race after a last start Maiden win however Northam 5-2 Underestimated won very well here last week over this trip and I expect that up and coming star apprentice, Jessica Hill, will be able to overcome her wide barrier. Comes out of a few really good systems and might be nice odds, too.
Yesterday: Not a bad day's analysis overall. Jacqueline Rouge got things off to a good start at Sandown though the $4 odds were shorter than I thought it would be. Then Irish Loup and Loup Rouge completed the Loup Sauvage (and stable and owners) quinella at Quirindi, paying $2.70. I stuffed up, as the winner, Irish Loup, should have been a POOMA. It came out of the super system that up until yesterday had picked 18 winners from 25 live selections at 50% profit. Tacsai got too far back and ran home strongly but couldn't pick up the placegetters and up north, My Son Day was backed as if unbeatable and won by 3L at around $4. Over in the west a horse having its first start beat experienced rivas who had won 4 and 5 races. Seafarer is very well bred 4YO entire, being by Scenic out of Miss Margaret, and I'll predict that he will go on to much better things.
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.
LOTD: French Tycoon started a $2.40 favourite and never looked like catching the winner.
Wednesday, August 16, 2006
SELECTIONS - 16 August 2006
POOMA selections:
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Quirindi 5-1
Sandown 7-3
Warwick Farm 4-4
Lay of the Day: Warwick Farm 3-8 French Tycoon $2.60; the engagement of Darren Beadman will ensure it starts shorter than it should - [LOTD 8 from 11]
Today: A slow track at Canterbury means it's not a really good place to be having a bet but I'll check the price of 6-16 Tacsai from the Barb Joseph stable. She ran 4th in a much stronger race last time out and might be fair e/w odds. At Sandown, Tony Noonan has 3-5 Jacqueline Rouge in with a real chance. She ran home well at Werribee last time and the bigger track will suit. Up at Eagle Farm, 8-8 My Son Day is pretty well placed and didn't have much luck last time out. At Quirindi, the two Loup Sauvage gallopers, Irish Loup and Loup Rouge look a fair chance of running the quinella in race 5. Other than that, it's a pretty uninspiring day.
Yesterday: Well, John Wigginton proved that he actually is a miracle worker when Light After Dark won at Rockhampton paying more than $30. The horse had diabolical southern form but must have enjoyed the change of scenery quite a bit, as he ran faster time than the Class 2. At Cessnock, I'd suggest that Al Afreet from the Kris Lees stables can win again when she steps up to a Class 1. She's the last of the Danehill crop to race and looks to have some scope to improve.
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesteray.
LOTD: Campaspe River had a nice run and was never in doubt, winning comfortably.
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Quirindi 5-1
Sandown 7-3
Warwick Farm 4-4
Lay of the Day: Warwick Farm 3-8 French Tycoon $2.60; the engagement of Darren Beadman will ensure it starts shorter than it should - [LOTD 8 from 11]
Today: A slow track at Canterbury means it's not a really good place to be having a bet but I'll check the price of 6-16 Tacsai from the Barb Joseph stable. She ran 4th in a much stronger race last time out and might be fair e/w odds. At Sandown, Tony Noonan has 3-5 Jacqueline Rouge in with a real chance. She ran home well at Werribee last time and the bigger track will suit. Up at Eagle Farm, 8-8 My Son Day is pretty well placed and didn't have much luck last time out. At Quirindi, the two Loup Sauvage gallopers, Irish Loup and Loup Rouge look a fair chance of running the quinella in race 5. Other than that, it's a pretty uninspiring day.
Yesterday: Well, John Wigginton proved that he actually is a miracle worker when Light After Dark won at Rockhampton paying more than $30. The horse had diabolical southern form but must have enjoyed the change of scenery quite a bit, as he ran faster time than the Class 2. At Cessnock, I'd suggest that Al Afreet from the Kris Lees stables can win again when she steps up to a Class 1. She's the last of the Danehill crop to race and looks to have some scope to improve.
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesteray.
LOTD: Campaspe River had a nice run and was never in doubt, winning comfortably.
Tuesday, August 15, 2006
SELECTIONS - 15 August 2006
POOMA selections:
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Cessnock 8-2
Kyneton 2-1, 4-8, 4-14, 6-2, 7-1
Lay of the Day: Kyneton 9-1 Campaspe River $2.50; This is not a strong race but he hasn't won on a dry track and has 58kg to deal with - [LOTD 8 from 10]
Today: Kyneton, Cessnock and Rockhampton grace today's racing calendar. Way up north sees a couple of southern runners making their Rocky debuts. 3-3 Light After Dark is first up for the John Wigginton stable. If he can get it to win here then he is a miracle worker given its form. 4-3 Send A Cheerio has only slighty better form. Can't recommend either of those. 3-6 I'm Fabulous and 7-4 Tannerong Baulk have had pipe openers up north and might be e/w chances. The lethal Moody/Nolen combination have a few chances today. I'll be interested to see what price 9-4 Inaname comes up after her inglorious first up 12th at Wangaratta when in the market at 9/2. Ms K Dyson, who is a 3kg claiming apprentice yet to ride a winner at a TAB meeting, took the ride that day on a dead rated track, which really doesn't suit the horse given its record on affected ground. Inaname had previously won twice first up from 3 goes so being beaten 11L was a surprise. I reckon she'll run a much improved race today.
Yesterday: The Hawkes/Beadman Jr combination got the double yesterday at Bathurst, as predicted with both runners winning by more than 2 lengths. $3 the double was pretty good value at the end of the day. At Nowra, Master Mood failed by a neck to win. I didn't have a bet on the day and there weren't any performances that would make me want to back a horse at its next start.
POOMAs: In a slowly run race, Joke Brother settled back, as predicted, and was never a chance when the sprint when on ending up 7th.
LOTD: Prince Rappa was $2.80 on the morning line but started at more than $8, not that I can help that. Ran an average race to finish midfield.
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Cessnock 8-2
Kyneton 2-1, 4-8, 4-14, 6-2, 7-1
Lay of the Day: Kyneton 9-1 Campaspe River $2.50; This is not a strong race but he hasn't won on a dry track and has 58kg to deal with - [LOTD 8 from 10]
Today: Kyneton, Cessnock and Rockhampton grace today's racing calendar. Way up north sees a couple of southern runners making their Rocky debuts. 3-3 Light After Dark is first up for the John Wigginton stable. If he can get it to win here then he is a miracle worker given its form. 4-3 Send A Cheerio has only slighty better form. Can't recommend either of those. 3-6 I'm Fabulous and 7-4 Tannerong Baulk have had pipe openers up north and might be e/w chances. The lethal Moody/Nolen combination have a few chances today. I'll be interested to see what price 9-4 Inaname comes up after her inglorious first up 12th at Wangaratta when in the market at 9/2. Ms K Dyson, who is a 3kg claiming apprentice yet to ride a winner at a TAB meeting, took the ride that day on a dead rated track, which really doesn't suit the horse given its record on affected ground. Inaname had previously won twice first up from 3 goes so being beaten 11L was a surprise. I reckon she'll run a much improved race today.
Yesterday: The Hawkes/Beadman Jr combination got the double yesterday at Bathurst, as predicted with both runners winning by more than 2 lengths. $3 the double was pretty good value at the end of the day. At Nowra, Master Mood failed by a neck to win. I didn't have a bet on the day and there weren't any performances that would make me want to back a horse at its next start.
POOMAs: In a slowly run race, Joke Brother settled back, as predicted, and was never a chance when the sprint when on ending up 7th.
LOTD: Prince Rappa was $2.80 on the morning line but started at more than $8, not that I can help that. Ran an average race to finish midfield.
Monday, August 14, 2006
SELECTIONS - 14 August 2006
POOMA selections:
Warracknabeal 5-1 Joke Brother
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Bathurst 7-3
Warracknabeal 1-8, 8-2
Lay of the Day: Warracknabeal 8-1 Prince Rappa $2.80; has a wide gate, big weight and hasn't won past 1100m so that'll do me - [LOTD 7 from 9]
Today: Racing today at Bathurst, Warracknabeal and one of the fastest sprint courses in the country, Nowra. Given the class of horse that races there people might be surprised at the course records. Bay Watch Babe holds the 1000m record in 55.97, Fearless Jonny scorched around the 1100m in 61.2 and Bolong Road ran 67.46 for the 1200m, which is close to the Australian record. Not that we'll get those times today on the slow track but it's worth bearing in mind when you see Maidens winning in fast times at Nowra that there's a reason for it - mainly because it's got a long downhill stretch into the straight. In race 6 there, 1-Master Mood resumes for new trainer, Toby Edmonds, and looks a good chance at a track where he won his last start before a spell. Our POOMA, 5-1 Joke Brother, looks a good each way chance in an open race at Warracknabeal. He steps up to the mile and a quarter trip for the first time, which should suit, as he's lacked the dash to win at shorter trips but has been working home OK. John Hawkes has a couple of runners at Bathurst, both to be ridden by Mitchell Beadman. 1-2 Beehives comes off a Hawkesbury placing and has been placed in town so that's stronger form than any of these. Don't expect to get anywhere near the $2.80 prepost on that one. 6-1 Charangas has also been placed in town and comes off a last start, first up 4th at Gosford. My database back to 1/1/2000 only has John Hawkes with one start at Bathurst for one win and he might be 3 from 3 after today.
Yesterday: Not much to report from yesterday, really. Eckland won her first race nicely at Seymour and might be quite smart. Go Leica won her Maiden at her 26th start for trainer Martin Condon. He broke in a horse for me going back in time when he was based at Kembla Grange. A good fella with a strong Irish accent. Unfortunately, whereas he has a great reputation for breaking horses in, as a trainer he hasn't had much success. Lunacampo won his 2nd start from 27 goes at the juicy price of $56 at the Sunshine Coast. He hasn't been far away recently so the price was a surprise.
Warracknabeal 5-1 Joke Brother
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Bathurst 7-3
Warracknabeal 1-8, 8-2
Lay of the Day: Warracknabeal 8-1 Prince Rappa $2.80; has a wide gate, big weight and hasn't won past 1100m so that'll do me - [LOTD 7 from 9]
Today: Racing today at Bathurst, Warracknabeal and one of the fastest sprint courses in the country, Nowra. Given the class of horse that races there people might be surprised at the course records. Bay Watch Babe holds the 1000m record in 55.97, Fearless Jonny scorched around the 1100m in 61.2 and Bolong Road ran 67.46 for the 1200m, which is close to the Australian record. Not that we'll get those times today on the slow track but it's worth bearing in mind when you see Maidens winning in fast times at Nowra that there's a reason for it - mainly because it's got a long downhill stretch into the straight. In race 6 there, 1-Master Mood resumes for new trainer, Toby Edmonds, and looks a good chance at a track where he won his last start before a spell. Our POOMA, 5-1 Joke Brother, looks a good each way chance in an open race at Warracknabeal. He steps up to the mile and a quarter trip for the first time, which should suit, as he's lacked the dash to win at shorter trips but has been working home OK. John Hawkes has a couple of runners at Bathurst, both to be ridden by Mitchell Beadman. 1-2 Beehives comes off a Hawkesbury placing and has been placed in town so that's stronger form than any of these. Don't expect to get anywhere near the $2.80 prepost on that one. 6-1 Charangas has also been placed in town and comes off a last start, first up 4th at Gosford. My database back to 1/1/2000 only has John Hawkes with one start at Bathurst for one win and he might be 3 from 3 after today.
Yesterday: Not much to report from yesterday, really. Eckland won her first race nicely at Seymour and might be quite smart. Go Leica won her Maiden at her 26th start for trainer Martin Condon. He broke in a horse for me going back in time when he was based at Kembla Grange. A good fella with a strong Irish accent. Unfortunately, whereas he has a great reputation for breaking horses in, as a trainer he hasn't had much success. Lunacampo won his 2nd start from 27 goes at the juicy price of $56 at the Sunshine Coast. He hasn't been far away recently so the price was a surprise.
POOMAs: Zephyr Speed continued the good recent run of POOMA selections by winning strongly paying $3.20.
LOTD: Eddie Rapido had a good run in the race but couldn't finish off and ran 3rd.
Sunday, August 13, 2006
SELECTIONS - 13 August 2006
POOMA selections:
Bairnsdale 8-3 Zephyr Speed
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Casino 3-2, 7-11
Hobart 4-2, 8-1
Kalgoorlie 7-1
Seymour 1-10, 6-4
Sunshine Coast 7-3, 7-9
Wagga 4-5, 5-3
Lay of the Day: Wagga 2-2 Eddie Rapido $2.80 - [LOTD 6 from 8]
Today: At Casino, 3-2 Kirra Belle gets her chance to break through today. She's drawn a tad wide at this tricky track but her form is good enough to win. Danger is the topweight. 7-11 Weekend Wonder will be good each way odds and worth putting in multiples. At the Sunshine Coast, 7-9 Streets Of Fire is a Class 1 horse in a Class 4 race but he's well suited in this race and back to a dry track. Our POOMA, Bairnsdale 8-3 Zephyr Speed has only won 2 from 23, which is less than useful but he's in good form and if he runs up to his Class 3 effort here two starts back then he'll be right there at the business end.
Yesterday: What a disaster for me yesterday with the Sydney quaddie. My assessment was "The first leg of the quaddie looks like a field job to me" and, of course, I only took 5 horses in a quaddie that cost $35 for a half missing the $100 shot and costing myself a share that eventually paid $64,000. Would have only cost $105 with the field in the first leg. When Keltic Flash won the 3rd leg I knew I'd made a big boo boo.
At Flemington. Blutigeroo proved he wasn't just a wet tracker at nice odds. Bel Danoro was too nippy for them in the sprint but it was the performances of El Segundo and Zipping that had people talking. El Segundo ran his last 600/400/200 in 33.02/22.07/11.34 and Zipping ran 32.95/22.07/11.24, which were the fastest sectionals in the race. They are both in for big springs, you'd think.
Bairnsdale 8-3 Zephyr Speed
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Casino 3-2, 7-11
Hobart 4-2, 8-1
Kalgoorlie 7-1
Seymour 1-10, 6-4
Sunshine Coast 7-3, 7-9
Wagga 4-5, 5-3
Lay of the Day: Wagga 2-2 Eddie Rapido $2.80 - [LOTD 6 from 8]
Today: At Casino, 3-2 Kirra Belle gets her chance to break through today. She's drawn a tad wide at this tricky track but her form is good enough to win. Danger is the topweight. 7-11 Weekend Wonder will be good each way odds and worth putting in multiples. At the Sunshine Coast, 7-9 Streets Of Fire is a Class 1 horse in a Class 4 race but he's well suited in this race and back to a dry track. Our POOMA, Bairnsdale 8-3 Zephyr Speed has only won 2 from 23, which is less than useful but he's in good form and if he runs up to his Class 3 effort here two starts back then he'll be right there at the business end.
Yesterday: What a disaster for me yesterday with the Sydney quaddie. My assessment was "The first leg of the quaddie looks like a field job to me" and, of course, I only took 5 horses in a quaddie that cost $35 for a half missing the $100 shot and costing myself a share that eventually paid $64,000. Would have only cost $105 with the field in the first leg. When Keltic Flash won the 3rd leg I knew I'd made a big boo boo.
At Flemington. Blutigeroo proved he wasn't just a wet tracker at nice odds. Bel Danoro was too nippy for them in the sprint but it was the performances of El Segundo and Zipping that had people talking. El Segundo ran his last 600/400/200 in 33.02/22.07/11.34 and Zipping ran 32.95/22.07/11.24, which were the fastest sectionals in the race. They are both in for big springs, you'd think.
I was very happy with my Warrnambool hurdle analysis for most of the race. Somehow, a horse that's had 27 starts for no wins and 15 placings managed to outsprint an Open class flat galloper over the concluding stages.
POOMAs: Growl did the job for us winning in the last hop at odds around $3. He has some upside and can win again with a step up in trip.
LOTD: Go Cart started at $2.60 and didn't have a lot of luck before running home for 3rd.
Saturday, August 12, 2006
SELECTIONS - 12 August 2006
POOMA selections:
Flemington 5-12 Growl
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Eagle Farm 3-1
Flemington 1-3, 2-9, 3-3, 7-2, 8-13
Morphettville 1-3, 1-4, 7-1, 7-10
Warrnambool 1-4, 1-9
Randwick 4-5
Lay of the Day: Randwick 7-10 Go Cart $2.60 - steps up in grade against some pretty fair sprinters here [LOTD 5 from 7]
Today: Warrnambool has 4 jumps races on a 7 race card, which is great. In the first race there only looks to be 3 chances. 4-El Zahia, 5-Hoofn It and 9-Sanders Legacy. The former two are Open class gallopers and should have too much toe for the rest of them. El Zahia won a hurdle trial before his last start flat run and I expect he'll start favourite.
The first four races at Flemington are pretty tricky and you'd want to be getting value for your selections. Our POOMA, Growl, is a stayer on the up and he gets in extremely well in what is his biggest test to date. I'll be standing him out in quaddies. The Aurie's Star has 11 horses first up in a field of 14 including some good types at the top of the weights. Bel Danoro looks a fair chance and if the track is upgraded to good then I'll be including Steptoe also. Apache Cat is probably the best of the first uppers and Zipping will be charging home. I hear that someone has backed him to win $1M in the Caufield - Melbourne Cup double. He's by Danehill so the second leg of that is a half mile too far - if he gets to the race at all.
At Randwick, I expect Fox Lake to bring up another win in race 7. He'll go forward from his outside gate and be right there at the finish. The danger might be Scotch Gem who meets him much better at the weights for their last run, as well as the consistent Keltic Flash. The first leg of the quaddie there looks like a field job to me.
I can't see why 3-1 Covet Gold can't bring up a hat trick at Eagle Farm. Will race in front and run a quick section so it'll take some running down. Over in Adelaide I expect 1-4 Angelina Ballerina to kick the meeting off on a winning note, though she won't be anywhere near the $3.50 on the morning line.
Flemington 5-12 Growl
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Eagle Farm 3-1
Flemington 1-3, 2-9, 3-3, 7-2, 8-13
Morphettville 1-3, 1-4, 7-1, 7-10
Warrnambool 1-4, 1-9
Randwick 4-5
Lay of the Day: Randwick 7-10 Go Cart $2.60 - steps up in grade against some pretty fair sprinters here [LOTD 5 from 7]
Today: Warrnambool has 4 jumps races on a 7 race card, which is great. In the first race there only looks to be 3 chances. 4-El Zahia, 5-Hoofn It and 9-Sanders Legacy. The former two are Open class gallopers and should have too much toe for the rest of them. El Zahia won a hurdle trial before his last start flat run and I expect he'll start favourite.
The first four races at Flemington are pretty tricky and you'd want to be getting value for your selections. Our POOMA, Growl, is a stayer on the up and he gets in extremely well in what is his biggest test to date. I'll be standing him out in quaddies. The Aurie's Star has 11 horses first up in a field of 14 including some good types at the top of the weights. Bel Danoro looks a fair chance and if the track is upgraded to good then I'll be including Steptoe also. Apache Cat is probably the best of the first uppers and Zipping will be charging home. I hear that someone has backed him to win $1M in the Caufield - Melbourne Cup double. He's by Danehill so the second leg of that is a half mile too far - if he gets to the race at all.
At Randwick, I expect Fox Lake to bring up another win in race 7. He'll go forward from his outside gate and be right there at the finish. The danger might be Scotch Gem who meets him much better at the weights for their last run, as well as the consistent Keltic Flash. The first leg of the quaddie there looks like a field job to me.
I can't see why 3-1 Covet Gold can't bring up a hat trick at Eagle Farm. Will race in front and run a quick section so it'll take some running down. Over in Adelaide I expect 1-4 Angelina Ballerina to kick the meeting off on a winning note, though she won't be anywhere near the $3.50 on the morning line.
Yesterday: The all weather surface at Canberra continues to be a roaring success with big fields and very strong racing. Kiss My Fuji showed that he was a really good horse winning the sprint under the steadier of 60kg. He can win in town if he has a bit more luck than previous visits there. At Ballarat, Illustration continued his rise through the ranks easily winning a Class 6 mile race at his 4th start. The field wasn't that strong but he continues to impress. Will go to town next time and probably step up in trip. I pointed out a few weeks ago that Alan Bailey has a good strike rate at Ipswich and he came away with a double - both odds on shots. At Tamworth, one of the worst wet trackers going around, Industrial Fan, improved ten lengths on his last couple of runs to win on the good track. He's had 19 goes on dead/slow/heavy for no wins, 2 seconds and 6 3rds.
POOMAs: Same Tune led throughout to narrowly win race 3 at Ballarat yesterday after being headed near the line paying $2.50 for the win.
LOTD: As nominated, I had real trouble picking out a lay yesterday and managed to, unfortunately, pick a winner in Ready.
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