SELECTIONS - 30 November 2006

POOMA selections:

Bendigo 4-10 Mr Sunset
Bendigo 7-5 Rainband
Rockhampton 7-3 Danzamonkey

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Gosford 2-12

Today: Let's hope we can finish the month on a winning note. Rockhampton 7-3 Danzamonkey comes from one of my best methods that only has a few selections each month, went live in September last year and has a 23/38 record (60.5%). He looks very well placed today and has in form apprentice, Adrian Coombe, on board to guide him home. At Bendigo, 4-10 Mr Sunset looks likely to give the out of form Peter Moody stable a welcome winner. He ran OK in a stronger race last time. 7-5 Rainband comes out of the same race so if Mr Sunset gets home then that'll strengthen the chances of Rainbird (and shorten the odds somewhat). He was a strong finishing 2nd behind Embank and the step up in trip looks ideal.

Yesterday: We got our butt kicked yesterday with 0/4. Zabba Doo led to the shadows of the post before running a narrow 3rd. His $4.80 dividend would have produced a profit but the fact he was caught late summed up our day. I idiotically didn't put Cutting In in my quaddie at Randwick, which I was particularly aggrieved with after finding $50 first leg winner, Annjolino, in the first leg with my 4 selections. The last two winners were easily found and the failure to get the $13K dividend is still lamented. On the point of Annjolino, her win is a case study in the strength of different classes. The race she was in was a F&M Class 5, which is equal to a non sex restricted Class 4. She's been running around in Class 5 and Class 6 Open races and her run behind Chevington really put her into the race. I cleverly missed the First4 when Snatch It snatched 3rd so I was just thrilled with that.

SELECTIONS - 29 November 2006

POOMA selections:

Ascot 7-4 Zabba Doo
Randwick 5-3 Red Monarch
Sandown 2-8 One Way Or Another
Sandown 3-4 Cut In Stone

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Nil

Today: A few more POOMAs than normal for a non-Saturday starting at Sandown with 2-8 One Way Or Another from the in-form David Hayes' stable. He led them up at his first start at Balaklava before being run down by Tramuntana who has won twice since, and then settled back and ran home well for 2nd behind Family Guy at Morphettville last time in fast time. That horse started favourite at Morphettville on Saturday and finished 5th behind the smart Idalou. This is not a strong race and he'll be value at $5+. Sandown 3-4 Cut In Stone drew 9/12 at MV last time, sat three deep all of the way, sprinted into the race on the corner and went strongly to the line to win in a tough effort. This race is no harder and she's in nicely on the limit weight. If the track wasn't rain affected then I'd give Endower an e/w chance in that race. Her form is better than it looks on paper. Randwick 5-3 Red Monarch has won his two starts from a spell at Necastle very nicely. He flogged them first up in fast time and then followed up with a narrow win in a race where the small field dawdled along and then sprinted home hard, which always contracts the margins. He's drawn a bit wide but will probably settle back anyway and that shouldn't be a disadvantage on the Kensington track, which has been playing very fairly in recent months; it really is in terrific shape. Ascot 7-4 Zabba Doo hasn't managed to win past 1200m yet, has run 8 placings from 12 runs at Ascot without winning and will need to cross and get an easy lead in this but that's what I expect to happen so he should be a great chance to break his Ascot duck.

Yesterday: 2 from 2 for the POOMAs returning a handy $4.70. Image Dancer got things off well when he really caned them in winning his Maiden at $1.60. Like his last two starts he was heavily backed late and I suggest you follow him. He's in my Black Book. Shoot First was our other winner up at Townsville at $3.10 overcoming a wide draw to come from the rear and win narrowly. He's not a bad horse and can win again if he draws well. A few others to follow: Scone 4-2 Ironside had little luck as favourite when deep all the way but ran home strongly for 2nd and 7-4 Hairy won under a hold to make it 2/2 for her career. She's up to one of those F&M Class 3 races in town. The most impressive winner of the day and one well worth following was at Warwick Farm in the form of 7-12 Sniper's Bullet. He drew 12/13, settled back and went whoosh late to win by over 3L running away (and landing the quaddie there for me). Follow him in anything he contests, as his trainer, Tracy Bartley, is a very canny fella.

SELECTIONS - 28 November 2006

POOMA selections:

Scone 3-4 Image Dancer
Townsville 8-4 Shoot First

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Pakenham 5-4, 8-3
Townsville 1-1, 1-2, 4-4

Today: Two POOMA selections today with the first coming up at Scone. 3-4 Image Dancer was heavily backed from 2/1 into 1/1 last time before running 2nd over 900m. She was backed from 4/1 into 5/4 first up so there are some seriously burned fingers among her connections but the step up in trip is more her go and she should go pretty close today. With Morsept and African Mist in the race she might be an OK price, as well. The system that picked Image Dancer has a 50%+ live strike rate. Townsville 8-4 Shoot First comes from a system with a 22/37 (59.5%) live strike rate. He's drawn a tad deep, which is no help but he has some tactical speed so should be able to position in a handy spot. Race 1 at Townsville sees a bit of a rarity, which is the selection of two horses, 1-Chief Red Feather and 2-Amber Futuh, by a system that doesn't have many selections but does have a live strike rate of 50%+. Given one of these two should beat the other the s/r will remain intact but the profit% will cop a small hit. They look the quinella, which will pay about $1.50.

Yesterday: I don't know whether they have the same incompetent riding rule in Victoria as they do in South Australia but if so then Ryan Waymouth and Lincoln Coffey should be charged under the rule and given a month on the sideline to consider the quality of their rides on the two favourites in race 5 at Stony Creek yesterday, the first leg of the quaddie. Settling well off the speed in a race run at a farcically slow pace, Coffey allowed his mount to lose further ground half way through and was in an impossible position on the turn. Waymouth settled last and was never a hope even though his mount rocketed home for 3rd, beaten less than a length. He should have won by as far as you can kick your hat. One thing about an incompetent riding rule is that it gives stewards the option of penalising a jockey when it's an obvious boat race without bringing a more serious charge that would require much stronger investigation and evidence (mobile phone records etc).

SELECTIONS - 27 November 2006

POOMA selections:

There are no POOMA selections today

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Nil

Comments: 1 from 3 yesterday returning a losing $1.80 with Spirit Of Archie's win down at Hobart. Bubblegrub looked home before being caught late as an odds on favourite and Secretly Hidden led before weakening in 4th spot. I was p*ssed off that Oak Park Shannon was a late scratching at Swan Hill, as I had a good go at her and reckon she would have won that race given the way things turned out (assuming she had been OK). I had a winning day with quaddies at Clare, Taree and Hobart, which continues a good run. Not much of a day today with average meetings at Stony Creek and Murwillumbah. The top two look like the only chances in the first leg of the quaddie at Stony Creek and 2,3 look the chances in the 2nd leg but the third leg looks tricky, as someone thought it would be a smart idea to stick a Maiden race in it, and the top four look the ones in the last race. There's a fair chance of a skinny dividend so it's probably not worth having much of a go. Summarising the quaddies: Stony Creek: 1,2 x 2,3 x 3,4,5,8,11,12 x 1,2,3,4; Murwillumbah 1,2,3,4,5,6 x 1,2,4, 8,10 x 1,3, 4,7,9 x 1,2,3,4,5 so that's too wide for me, as I can't find a short leg.

SELECTIONS - 26 November 2006

POOMA selections:

Hobart 8-2 Spirit Of Archie
Swan Hill 3-2 Bubblegrub
Swan Hill 7-4 Oak Park Shannon
Wodonga 4-4 Secretly Hidden

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Swan Hill 6-8, 6-13, 8-5, 8-6, 9-1
Wondonga 6-10

Comments: 1 from 5 yesterday returning $4.10 but we were really unlucky to miss with a couple of the others. Darren Gauci proved comprehensively why I don't like him as a jockey by managing to get Meurice beaten in what was a typically thoughtless ride. He really does lack tactical skill. Four POOMAs today including one at pretty good e/w odds in Oak Park Shannon. She's had 5 first up runs for a 2nd and 3rd but this is the easiest assignment she's had for a little while. Bubblegrub ran a really good first up 2nd behind Bob'n'hop who has gone on to frank the form with another win and the step up in trip will suit. It doesn't look like much of a day for having a go overall.

SELECTIONS - 25 November 2006

POOMA selections:

Ascot 6-4 Real Mak
Eagle Farm 3-8 Wings Of Seraph
Morphettville 3-3 Family Guy
Sandown 2-1 Meurice
Sandown 4-3 Byway

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Armidale 1-5
Ascot 3-2
Eagle Farm 1-1, 3-8
Kembla Grange 7-2
Sandown 1-3
Terang 5-3, 7-2

Comments: Yesterday's 2 from 3 took the recent POOMA performance to 12 wins from the last 15 picks, which is quite handy. I had 6 horses in the last leg of the MV quaddie last night after standing out Lakemba Gold in the third leg but finished 2nd ($17K result) and 3rd ($25K) behind the $45K result with Sans Gene winning. I did lay off on the other runners so ended up winning $2K on the race but that was small consolation. The moral of the story? Remember what I say about quaddies - you must have a short leg, preferably just one horse and a maximum of two. If you can't pick one winner straight out in four races then what are you doing playing at all? The POOMAs today all look like they've got strong chances. I potted Meurice for being a bit of a speedy squib after his last run but this looks a lot easier and Sandown is actually a squib's track in spite of the long run in. If Byway is ever going to win another race and live up to his early promise then he'd have to start today, as he won't bump into many weaker races. At Eagle Farm, Wings Of Seraph is going through the grades nicely and although this is a fair step up he looks very well in. Over at Morphettville, Family Guy came from gate 13 of 13, did work, rounded them up and won in fast time only 0.6s outside the track record (albeit on a day of fast times). With the top two in the race he might be $4+, which is good value. At Ascot, Real Mak suffered his first defeat last time, which I had anticipated because I thought that the drop back from 1200m to 1000m would work against him and play into the hands of eventual winner, Metallic Storm, which he meets here again today. He'll have to work forward from his gate, which is how he races anyway, and might be around $4, which I reckon is good value.

SELECTIONS - 24 November 2006

POOMA selections:

Cessnock 3-8 Way Past Midnight
Moonee Valley 2-2 General Ralph
Naracoorte 6-3 Barker Lad

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Kyneton 5-8

Comments: Well, if you couldn't get the Canterbury $300+ quaddie last night then it's not my fault because I gave you the last two winners as POOMAs, as well as the first leg of the quaddie at Rockhampton. Yesterday's 3 out of 3 continue the current run for POOMAs, which have won 10 of the last 12 selections (and if pointing that out doesn't put the mocker on them then nothing will).

SELECTIONS - 23 November 2006

POOMA selections:

Canterbury 6-7 Referees
Canterbury 7-6 Raheights
Rockhampton 5-3 King Hunter

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Cranbourne 5-3, 5-4, 8-1

Comments: If you saw race 6 at Ipswich yesterday in which Pickason, coming off no form at all, was heavily backed late, looked gone 200m out yet came back to win then you might wonder whether the race was fair dinkum or they all had oars, especially after the short priced favourite missed the start and was never a hope.

SELECTIONS - 22 November 2006

POOMA selections:

There are no POOMA selections today

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Ballarat 4-3
Hawkesbury 6-1
Port Lincoln 5-2, 8-1

Comments: 1 from 2 yesterday with the win of Dominate King at Townsville at $1.80. The run of the other POOMA selection, General Ninja at Moe, was quite strange and I hope there's a stewards' enquiry. He jumped well to be wide and nearly in front and was then eased out of the speed battle to second last of the 7 horse field. He then came into the race on the back of the topweight but went wide on the corner (letting out the well-backed eventual winner in the process, which was a non-POOMA selection), dropped back a couple of lengths but then really picked up the bit and at the 150m mark was easily travelling well enough to run a place but his jockey, Peter Mertens, never let the horse go and he coasted to the line in 5th spot. The horse is worth following, I suspect, at his next start.

SELECTIONS - 21 November 2006

POOMA selections:

Moe 4-2 General Ninja
Townsville 4-2 Dominate King

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Moe 4-4
Townsville 5-4

Comments: No POOMAs yesterday but we got the one from three that I suggested was possible at a handy $6.90 so I hope you got on. Today's Townsville POOMA selection comes from a system that only averages around three selections per month. Since going live in March 2005 it has achieved a 21/43 record at 37% profit, which is entirely in line with expectations.

SELECTIONS - 20 November 2006

POOMA selections:

There are no POOMA selections today

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Kilmore 8-2
Lismore 7-7, 9-1

Comments: 3 from 3 yesterday at $2.50, $3.30 and $4.30 following Saturday's 3 from 6, which is a nice return to form. Let's hope it keeps going after a below last average six weeks. The three non-POOMA selections today come from profitable systems that don't yet qualify for consideration as POOMAs. They have strike rates of around 30% so one might lob.

SELECTIONS - 19 November 2006

POOMA selections:

Ararat 1-12 Amaterasu
Newcastle 2-3 Red Monarch
Yarra Glen 4-2 Cape Danger

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Bunbury 7-9
Launceston 1-3, 1-7
Newcastle 1-2
Strathalbyn 5-6
Sunshine Coast 4-6, 7-10
Yarra Glen 1-1

SELECTIONS - 18 November 2006

POOMA selections:

Ascot 2-1 Just Les
Ascot 4-9 Royale Harvest
Ascot 7-5 Vain Crusader
Cheltenham 8-5 Woodland Jack
Eagle Farm 8-7 Sovereign Dream
Rosehill 1-1 Super Smudge

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Cheltenham 6-10, 8-2
Kembla Grange 3-3
Mornington 6-6, 6-7, 7-7, 7-8, 7-9
Rosehill 3-6
Sandown 7-10
Toowoomba 1-10

SELECTIONS - 17 November 2006

POOMA selections:

Mackay 2-3 Bunsen Honeydew
Mackay 7-3 Kandinski
Mackay 8-2 Dust Haze

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Moonee Valley 4-2
Mackay 3-4
Port Macquarie 2-3, 7-8
Traralgon 7-2

Comments: $10+ winner at Wyong yesterday, Cardgames, came from a system that I should have POOMAed yesterday. I did stand it out in the first leg of the quaddie, which made getting that result pretty easy so that was handy. The system that picked the winner of race 1 at Werribee, Mr Standfast, is based on three horse fields and has a terrific strike rate at 50%+ profit even in races like yesterday where they were all first starters. I should probably POOMA those selections.

SELECTIONS - 16 November 2006

POOMA selections:

There are no POOMA selections today

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Werribee 1-3, 6-3, 7-7
Wyong 5-1, 6-4

SELECTIONS - 15 November 2006

POOMA selections:

Bendigo 1-2 Road To Dundee
Bendigo 8-3 Stickpin
Canterbury 5-3 Cutting In
Doomben 2-1 Miss Judgement

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Geraldton 5-10

SELECTIONS - 14 November 2006

POOMA selections:

There are no POOMA selections today

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Hamilton 8-6
Rockhampton 1-10

SELECTIONS - 13 November 2006

POOMA selections:

Tatura 3-1 Three Amigos

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Nil

Today: Two meetings today, which is normal for a Monday, at Nowra and Tatura. Nowra is one of the fastest tracks in the country and it's normal to see maidens win over 1200m in less than 1:10. The records for the sprints are: 1000m 55.97, 1100 61.20, 1200 67.46. You'll see people in the TAB tell their mates that a horse is unbeatable because it won at Nowra at its last start over 1200m in 1:9.8 but they don't know how far outside the record that is and then can't understand why it runs like a skunk at its next go. I'll give tips there in each race and see how we go at Nowra: 1-1, 2-3, 3-3, 4-9, 5-1, 6-1, 7-1, 8-14. The POOMA today at Tatura, 3-1 Three Amigos, really gave his rivals a drubbing last time when winning his Maiden by a lazy 7L. He should repeat the dose today and anything $2 or better is good value. And a tip for each race: 1-3, 2-8, 3-1, 4-13, 5-4, 6-1, 7-6, 8-4.

Yesterday: Not much to comment on given the tracks were wet and some were downgraded from dead to slow, which meant that there was no point having a go.

POOMAs: Two 2nds from 2 picks yesterday but we were really unlucky with the one over at Mt Barker, Strawb Knows. I commented that he didn't look to have the form to win, had drawn wide and wouldn't be suited at the trip but that the system that picked him was so good that I had to go with it anyway. As it turned out he sat deep, worked hard to the lead, was joined at the 200m by four or five others, kept fighting and fighting and only weakened late to finish 2nd paying very well for the place at around $4. At Donald, The Ruckman ran 2nd as favourite but was comfortably beaten.

SELECTIONS - 12 November 2006

POOMA selections:

Donald 5-3 The Ruckman
Mt Barker 7-12 Strawb Knows

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Armidale 3-7, 4-3
Cranbourne 6-1
Devonport 1-4, 5-6
Donald 8-3

Today: Lots of dead tracks around the place, which always makes things tougher, especially on Sundays, a day on which picking winners is always a bit tougher. That said, I'm pretty confident that the 8 selections above will return a profit for the day and I'll be working some bets around that expectation. At Donald, 5-3 The Ruckman hasn't done anything wrong in winning his three starts and looked really good last time at St Arnaud. He came from back in the field to win his Maiden at his first start beating Sesaru Gamu and then turned up at the non-TABs to win from Miss Blevic and Lycadere. Those two go OK and how well he is going was demonstrated last time when carrying 58kg to a comfortable win. The other selection, which is at Mt Barker, comes from a system that has such a good strike rate that I always tip them regardless of my own view of their chances, as that system keeps proving my judgement wrong!

Yesterday: The carnival finished off with a very successful meeting at Flemington. Bond Street was pretty impressive in winning the first race, albeit the runner up was unlucky, and if David Hayes' view that the horse will do better over 1400m then he's in for a good future. Meurice proved my statement that he looked a bit like a speedy squib at his first start when he squibbed into 3rd place. He's not much chop but will win weaker 2YO races. Valkyrie Diva started ridiculously short at $2.40, which I thought was $1 less than her right price and she really didn't finish off to end up 4th. Divine Madonna scooted down the outside of the Flemington track for the second time this preparation to win the Emirates Stakes. She had everything made to order with the way the track played and duly saluted. The biggest win of the day wasn't on the east coast, however. If you didn't see the win of Marasco then you missed something special. He lobbed along out the back, came wide, had them covered 400m out, accelerated in the style of a Group 1 horse and coasted to the line 4L clear. He is something really special.

POOMAs: 3 from 8 yesterday but they were all a bit short so we only got back $7.70.

SELECTIONS - 11 November 2006

POOMA selections:

Ascot 3-6 Marasco
Flemington 1-2 Airstream
Flemington 2-2 Husson Lightning
Flemington 3-7 Valkyrie Diva
Flemington 4-9 Made Your Mark
Flemington 5-8 Nediym's Glow
Flemington 8-16 Zavite
Newcastle 6-2 Next Adventure

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Ascot 6-2
Flemington 5-4
Geelong 2-7, 6-2
Gold Coast 6-6
Randwick 3-5
Victoria Park 8-2

Today: The last day of a record breaking Spring carnival. Flemington only needs something like 45,000 today to break the carnival attendance record, which would seem like a tens-on favourite to me. Track is dead at Flemington but I expect either an upgrade or for it to play fairly. The selections for Flemington are analysed below. At Newcastle, 6-2 Next Adventure comes from a system with a 50%+ strike rate. He's trained by one of my old trainers, Mack Griffith, and won nicely last time in a similar race. Ascot 3-6 Marasco is touted as the next Northerly, as he races in the same colours and is trained by Fred Kersley. I don't know about that but his first up win was comprehensive and a repeat performance will see him get home again today. Today looks to be a pretty good one to be having a go, as the formlines are a bit clearer than over the last week. As always, look for value and pick your races carefully.

Analysis for Flemington as follows.

Race 1: Speed (Average) - Sunlad and Artorius probably set the pace here with Exalted Madam, Airstream and Northern Point not far away. Airstream is a really good sprinter, has won here, goes very well fresh but has drawn slightly awkwardly in 6. He should be able to come across behind the leaders and will finish off hard. He's the first POOMA of the day. Bond Street is an up and comer that is working through his grades nicely but also has to overcome the inside gate. Montechoro ran well in a good race behind Anna's Choice last time and he looks well placed in the race but...has drawn the inside gate. Given the way the straight races have been playing it's possible that those drawn the high gate numbers go a bit silly and set the race up for those coming up the crown of the track, which my selections will be doing. Selections: 2-Airstream, 5-Bond Street, 3-Montechoro

Race 2: Speed (Average) - Not too much to write here. Meurice leads easily. He had a touch of the speedy squibs last time when winning his debut and the Hayes trained Husson Lightning ran well enough in the Gimcrack to be the pick to run him down. Superfly looks like the 3rd placegetter. Selections: 2-Husson Lightning, 1-Meurice, 7-Superfly

Race 3: Speed (Strong) - Hidden Strings, Pin Up and Anapine go forward and set up a fair clip in this race. From her good gate our POOMA selection, Valkyrie Diva, gets the gun run and races as though this trip will really suit. I expect Anapine to run a vastly improved race on her last start effort so don't leave her out of multiples. She drew the carpark last time and was never a chance. With the strong pace those parked out the back like Purde, Pavlova and Celtic Bloom will get their chance to power home. Kosi Bay also looks like she gets a good run. Happy to play in this race. Selections: 7-Valkyrie Diva, 14-Anapine, 13-Celtic Bloom

Race 4: Speed (Average) - Made Your Mark launched out of the 15 gate at Seymour last time, had a battle for the lead, won that, went a couple in front before the corner, increased the margin and coasted to the line to win easily (ignore the formguides that have him settling midfield and then midfield on the corner, they're quite wrong). In a race where there's no pace and some others that don't really finish off he is going to be outstanding value. Sunglazed has been running over 1000m and been near the front so it's likely that Dunn will be up the front with the step up to 1400m. Tullamarine, What's The Time and Far Horizons all get nice runs close to the speed and will be therabouts. Revise will park right behind them also but is up a lot in grade. My Middi had a soft run to win last time and probably has to do more work from the wide gate. Danzylum keeps finding the line in weaker races. Selections: 9-Made Your Mark, 1-My Middi, 8-Danzylum

Race 5: Speed (Average) - Nediym's Glow and Murray Downs are up the front in this but not at any great pace. The rest will settle in their normal racing position with Magnus right behind them and Undue out the back with Black Ink. Key to this race is pace. Nediym's Glow got gassed early in the race behind the flying Gold Edition in which Splashing Out ran home for 2nd. I can't see that happening today and expect her to sprint home quickly over the final 400m to victory. Splashing Out has come a long way in her first preparation and must be a chance with her light weight and Magnus looks the other one with a hope. If Undue is within 2L at the 400m then it might be goodnight, nurse, as he has a big finish. Selections: 8-Nediym's Glow, 9-Splashing Out, 4-Magnus

Race 6: Speed (Strong) - Apache Cat and Seachange have drawn deep and will need to go forward with most people predicting one of the two will lead with Desert War right behind them. I'm not too sure about that. I reckon that Desert War will kick up from his good gate and hold them out, which will hurt the chances of those two other horses at least one of which looks a serious contender. He's an iron horse, Desert War, and loves to dominate from in front. The pace will be strong early but should then be run at a good clip so all horses should get their chance. Divine Madonna will obviously be out the back and with only 51kg will be rocketing home late. She was terrific last time coming from well back on a day when nothing could make ground. Bentley Biscuit did what most horses do the first time they see Caulfield and got on the wrong leg before the corner. Once he balanced up late he zoomed home and he is a definite threat. I've been potting Lad Of The Manor away from MV but his mile record can't be ignored, as well as the fact that he performs well at this track so I wouldn't be surprised to see him run into the placings. Selections: 1-Desert War, 15-Divine Madonna, 2-Lad Of The Manor

Race 7: Speed (Average) - A clear leader here though not at any great pace in New Edge. Forest Spy, Watchyerback and Shadowmaker will sit in the chasing brigade and Royal Ida will park out the back in company with Polish Clown. The topweight, Royal Ida, has got it against him today with the slow speed and 60kg so I'm prepared to leave him out even though he has a terrific record. New Edge has been busting to win one lately and has been unlucky not to join Takeover Target as a Queanbeyan trained Group winner. Our Apache ran well at Caulfield before having his chances wrecked on that biased track last week. He's a horse that takes a few runs to hit his peak and today he really does have conditions to suit. Falaise is obviously going well though he's by Grand Lodge and if the track is genuinely dead then I'm happy to go around him. Selections: 4-New Edge, 9-Our Apache, 5-Shadowmaker

Race 8: Speed (Average) - Show Barry takes the lead in this with Blue Collar Jack from Zavite and Gallant Guru with Pantani and Jagger at the rear. I'm going for an outsider in the up and comer, Zavite, from the in form Anthony Cummings stable. I thought he was a chance in the 2800m race on Cup day but he didn't make the field, as he was an emergency. That race was won by Southern Courage, which had finished runner up to Zavite at its previous run and Bay Story was 2nd. The horse has only had a handful of runs, seems to stay all day (he's a Zabeel) and at the odds I'm prepared to make him a POOMA, as he'll be double what he should be. Vanquished is a very poorly named horse. You might as well name your horse 'Loser'. However, he's been racing very well and must be a chance, as should Magic Instict. Bay Story was OK after having had a short break last time and Show Barry has to be considered. Like a lot of horses, Gallant Guru has improved when going to the Lee Freedman stable. There must be something in the air down there at Rye. Heh. You can't leave him out of quaddies and the like. Selections: 16-Zavite, 3-Vanquished, 12-Magic Instinct

Race 9: Speed (Average) - Dr Nipandtuck, Utility, Quilter and maybe Hollidazzle will settle forward with Ulysses and Rubijon out the back. Trick Of Light looks to get a terrific run behind them along with Mock. The mare, Trick Of Light, keeps on winning and carried a big weight to a narrow victory last time. This is a big step up in grade and I'll only have her in for the place but if she can win then I'd suggest she's up to winning a black type race, especially in mares' company. Ulysses is my top pick but as I've mentioned before, he is Australia's worst wet tracker having not run a place in 12 goes on dead or worse. If the track is not upgraded then his chances diminish a lot. Threedee gets into a race he can win and Rubijon is also in the mix along with Correct Amondo. A very tricky leg to finish off the quaddie. Selections: 5-Dr Nipandtuck, 2-Threedee, 13-Trick Of Light

Yesterday: I went out for lunch, went home, had a lie down and missed the $16 winner at Townsville in the non-POOMA selections. I didn't see any of the races. At least the food was good.

POOMAs: One POOMA yesterday at Townsville, See You Twist, which sat on the pace but got run down in the final 100m to add to our frustrating run of 2nds lately.

SELECTIONS - 10 November 2006

POOMA selections:

Townsville 2-1 See You Twist

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Townsville 6-8

Today: When the Easybeats wrote about having Friday on their minds they certainly can't have been looking forward to the racing that is generally served up on that day. Dead track at Stony Creek and Port Macquarie make them very unattractive betting propositions. One POOMA today from one of my favourite systems up at Townsville. 2-1 See You Twist is an obviously talented but injury prone galloper given the large spells between some of her runs. She returned from nearly two years off for a placing at out of the way Innisfail before an easy win at Cairns. If she's $3+ then that will be great value.

Yesterday: Miss Finland proved that she's one of the great young horses of the modern era (along with Dance Hero, which was unbelievable as a 2YO, of course) by winning the Oaks in the same year as the Golder Slipper. I thought she was a good thing and would have too much class in spite of the query of her getting the distance. As it turned out she had plenty of gas in the tank at the finish and actually drew away from them over the final 100m. Danny Beasley's ride on Tuesday Joy was an instruction in excellence for those that were watching. His tactic was to position a couple of lengths behind Miss Finland, track her every inch of the way and then use Tuesday Joy's supposed superior stamina to run down the favourite. As it turned out she wasn't up to the task due to the winner's brilliance but it was a 10/10 ride. Also in the outstanding category is Gold Edition, which made a bunch of 2nd raters look 3rd rate when smashing them up the straight for the second time in 5 days. I hope both of these outstanding 3YOs can keep their form going, as there's quite a lack of depth at the moment. The other good win of the day was Crepe De Chine and she can keep it going.

POOMAs: Only 1 from 5 yesterday returning $2.60, which continued the recent frustrating run.

SELECTIONS - 9 November 2006

POOMA selections:

Flemington 2-15 Lodge The Deeds
Flemington 6-1 Miss Finland
Flemington 9-13 More Than Regal
Port Lincoln 4-2 Sunny Diva
Warrnambool 1-7 Tattoine

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Eagle Farm 7-7
Hawkesbury 4-1, 6-4
Pakenham 6-6
Pinjarra 2-3, 2-11

Today: Oaks Day at Flemington, aka Blokes' Day, where the ladies wear more double sided tape than they do actual dress. Works for me. The POOMAs have come up with a few selections starting with Flemington 2-15 Lodge The Deeds. He's drawn wide, is up in grade and is up against one that we've been getting the money with lately in the topweight, Bon Hoffa, who is a very good racehorse indeed. Lodge The Deeds was a POOMA for us two starts back when he won at Kembla Grange and before that race I nominated him as an up and coming star. After that win he then went into town where he was 'poorly handled' by Lenny Beasley when a beaten favourite. He drifted from 11/8 to 2/1 that day and it seemed that Lenny took every wrong decision available from the top of the straight, which resulted in the horse going down by less than a length. Seems to happen a lot in Sydney these days. Darren Beadman takes the ride today, which knocks off $3-$4 from the price but if he's as good as I think he is the price of around $8 will look good after the race. He does get back and steam home so the wide barrier shouldn't be an issue. I'll be working multiples with he, Bon Hoffa and Bellini Rose, which has been also winning for us though this is tougher. 6-1 Miss Finland will win the Oaks. Moving right along. Oh, right, you want to know why. Sure. Basically, she's got a thousand grades on them, which she showed in the Cox Plate when she was only beaten 2.8L. Put Tuesday Joy in that race and she gets beaten 28L, I reckon. Unlike the Cox Plate there'll be little speed and Miss Finland's brilliance will see her home. Tuesday Joy will be out the back and will need to put in a mighty run to win. 9-13 More Than Regal sneaks into a very winnable race. He'll park right behind the speed and will be right ther at the end. Warrnambool 1-7 Tattoine is bursting to win a race and her astute trainer, Darren Weir, seems to have found one to let her break her duck. If she runs up to her last effort at Ballarat then she'll put these away. Port Lincoln is one of my favourite tracks to be at. Why? Because it's so far from anywhere that they all race against each other and the form stacks up well (similar to Far North Queensland). 4-2 Sunny Diva is a very consistent filly that hasn't been unplaced in 8 runs since her first start 5th to Perficio. She gets everything to suit today and should beat the topweight, Demand.

Selections for Flemington:

Race 1: 1, 12, 2
Race 2: 15, 1, 6
Race 3: 4, 2, 1
Race 4: 1, 12, 7
Race 5: 4, 10, 17
Race 6: 1, 2, 6
Race 7: 2, 8, 4
Race 8: 12, 3, 7
Race 9: 13, 4, 8

Yesterday: The quaddies I nominated were a roaring success with the best result being money back at Grafton. That was for a bit of fun anyway on a dull day.

POOMAs: 1 from 2 yesterday breaking square. Nylstroem sat outside the pace, accelerated hard and won handily paying an even $2. Jamberoo sat right behind the pace, briefly hit the front 200m out, fought hard but couldn't hold out the winner and runner up, finishing a close 3rd.

SELECTIONS - 8 November 2006

POOMA selections:

Kyneton 6-2 Nylstroem
Kyneton 7-5 Jamberoo

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

York 5-2

Today: Nothing particularly inspiring today apart from the races that the POOMA selections are in at Kyneton. 6-2 Nylstroem continues to win by coming from back in the field. He knocked off the smart Who's Crackin' last time with the leader that day, Keibler, in third place. It's a pity that horse is scratched today, as he would have ensured a genuine tempo that would help our pick. 7-5 Jamberoo is very well placed in the Kyneton Cup. He's up in grade but down in weight and it's worth remembering that he led nearly all the way in the Wagga Gold Cup before being run down late by McLir. Octrivia is the obvious danger and I'll take a quinella on those two. Heavy track at Grafton doesn't help things, as doesn't the dead at Ipswich (though that could be upgraded). I've picked out some quaddies so let's see how I go (don't like the look of the Murray Bridge one, as it breaks my rule of having a leg with only one or two in it):

Kyneton: 2 x 3-5 x 2-3-4-5-6-8-11 x 1-5-6-7-8-11
Grafton: 1 x F x F x 6
Ipswich: 1 x 1-2-3 x 1-2-3-4 x 1-4-5-7-11
Murray Bridge: 1-3-4-5-6 x 2-3-5 x 1-4-7-9-12-13 x 2-3-8-12
York: F x 2 x 1-3 x 2-3-7-10

Yesterday: Well, folks, let me be the first to make a prediction - Japanese horses will dominate the Melbourne Cup for the foreseeable future. Given that I was born in Japan I had a little quinella on the two but I should have had trifectas and First4s, as well! My thesis is that Japanese racing is now absolutely in the top bracket and, significantly, their horses have a real advantage over their European counterparts - the trip is short and the timezone difference is minimal. The benefit of having a run in Australia before the race is being shown to be a very wise decision. Japanese staying events are run at a terrific clip, as ours are, so local trainers will really need to lift their game to compete in at least the near future. I tend to cop a hiding every Melbourne Cup day but this year I managed to escape with my skin relatively intact due to a few good results that made up for all of the bad ones. Was a tough day at Flemington with 6 of the 10 winners starting at $10+ and only two favourites getting home. A couple of horses to follow are Royal Asscher, which caned them and can win again, especially up the straight, and Cicinero, which put in a really professional performance. He had come off a good run behind Anna's Choice and that form seems to be stacking up well.

POOMAs: 0 from 3 yesterday. Bay Story ran a good race for 2nd. Bianca is only a little thing and had to put up with a lot of buffeting through the run but she didn't really sprint over the last 100m. Amyjaye Power went like a broken rocking horse.

SELECTIONS - 7 November 2006

POOMA selections:

Flemington 3-5 Bay Story
Flemington 6-8 Bianca
Flemington 9-2 Amyjaye Power

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Ascot 9-3
Echuca 5-3
Morphettville 8-7

Today: I've struggled on Melbourne Cup day for at least 25 years and I don't know what I'm doing differently now that will deliver an improvement. That said, it's incumbent on all racing followers to have a bet on the Cup so I'll do my best. Of course, it's a good day for a drink and a bad day to be a chicken; a day on which the TAB will go down for annoyingly long periods in spite of it happening every year to the same lame old excuse about unexpected demand; the Internet site will effectively be cacked so we'll miss getting bets on; and woe betide anyone that thinks sitting on the phone waiting for a TAB operator to answer any time in the next 15 minutes won't be par for the course. Even though the rail is out 4m around the back straight I don't reckon that horses will be able to come from a long way back and win so will concentrate on those up on the pace and racing midfield on the fence, with only a few exceptions. To the POOMAs at Flemington: 3-5 Bay Story had his first run in Australia and first run for a year when 3rd behind Irazu last time. Irazu then nearly made it into the Melbourne Cup field when 2nd in Saturday's SAAB Quality so that's really strong form and the next rung up from the Geelong Cup form. Keen on the quinella with the big grey, 4-Siamun, in that race. 6-8 Bianca ran a terrific race behind Reigning To Win last time and should have beaten that horse. The drop back to fillies' grade really suits and I think she's a genuine $2.50 chance. 9-2 Amyjaye Power is perfectly placed in this sprint and I'm working on the basis that the grandstand side will be the place to be. There's lots of pace in the race and he'll be able to park just off them and power over the top late.

Full analysis for Flemington as follows.

Race 1: Speed (Strong) - This is a your-guess-is-as-good-as-mine sort of race. Given that the grandstand flogged the flat side in the Salinger I reckon they'll all come to the outside so the higher the barrier the better. Royal Asscher has shown pace in both his runs and doesn't bump into his dual conquerer, Cinq Cento, in this race so I'll go for him. Of the rest of the raced brigade they all look pretty even and there are some well bred first starters. It's a good thing that this race is on at 10.20AM so we can all be watching it on telly and finishing our eggs and bacon before heading out for the day. Selections: 1-Royal Asscher, 2-Recooperate, 10-Gravitron

Race 2: Speed (Strong) - There looks to be a lot of speed here with go forward horses like Primrose Lane drawn off the track. Myalansky has drawn the inside and will position right behind them. Those drawn wide with no early speed will be in trouble like A Country Girl and they may elect to go forward today. Pekalan has come with a withering sprint at her last two runs to win but she's not drawn to get a run that will get her close enough to do that again, I suspect. Selections: 7-Star Mystic, 11-Interche, 4-Benko

Race 3: Speed (Strong) - Another race where there'll be a pretty solid tempo, which will be set by Raise The Curtain and Bugatti Royale with Vengo and Pride Of Westbury right behind them. Siamun ran a good race in the Geelong Cup and while that race isn't strong enough form for the Melbourne Cup it is for this race. He'll be parked out the back and will need to get a run through near the fence on the corner but Blake Shinn, who has won 3 from 4 on the horse, will know what to do. Vengo also ran well in the Geelong Cup and will have the run of the race. I expect the lightly raced international, Bay Story, to race well in this and the old stagers like Encosta Legend and Enzed could also figure. I'm not a big fan of betting in this race unless I can get around $8 for Siamun. Selections: 5-Bay Story, 4-Siamun, 2-Vengo

Race 4: Speed (Strong) - Looks like another test of stamina with Speedy Rossa, Funlove and Pasikatera rolling along at a good clip. Funlove, Fullaz and Martiniforus get good runs back along the rail and Elmatill and Storm Signal park out the back. Sera Cielo looks to get a good run a couple back and one off the fence along with Imana. I like this as a betting race, as I think that Imana, Speedy Rossa, Funlove and Martiniforus represent good value. Imana gets in really well at the weights so she goes on top from Speedy Rossa and Martiniforus. Selections: 2-Imana, 8-Speedy Rossa, 5-Martiniforus

Race 5: Speed (Flogging along) - You're not going to see too many 1000m races run up the straight at headquarters at a dawdle, especially with horses like Miss Evergreen in the race. Jockeys will assess where the best going is after the first race but I'll assume they'll come to the grandstand again. These straight races are a lottery for that reason and I dislike this race so much that I'm not even going to try and work it out. If that weak cat, Aurelio, gets home then they should tear the grandstand down. For the record...Selections: 6-Letmeenterrainyou, 14-Miss Evergreen, 2-Follow The Till

Race 6: Speed (Average) - Horses racing handy to the speed should be advantaged in this, as there doesn't look to be a whole heap of early pace. Devil Moon can kick up from the inside to lead or be right behind them, World Joy is also forward with Mute. Absolutelyfabulous will have to go back from the draw, which should put paid to her winning chances. Corton Charlemagne will get the perfect sit and after her good last start win is my top selection. World Joy should be able to finish off strongly and Flame of Sydney should also be thereabouts. Bianca should have knocked off Reigning To Win last time and drops back to fillies' grade here. Selections: 8-Bianca, 4-Corton Charlemagne, 5-World Joy

Race 7: Speed (Strong) - As per my full post on the race. Selections: 4-Tawqeet, 5-Geordieland, 12-Pop Rock, 23-Maybe Better

Race 8: Speed (Average) - A clear leader here in the Hayes' runner, Lancettier, and he should be able to get a soft lead, which will make him tough to run down in what looks a very open race. Polar Bear and Dr Nipantuck will race forward and He's A Perla, Alto Adige and Hassle will get the gun runs on the fence and horses like Duoro Valley and Mock will be in trouble wide and back in the field. Black Panther looks likely to settle midfield along with Life's A Bounty. I'm pretty keen on Polar Bear after his good run behind Maybe Better last time. Selections: 2-Polar Bear, 11-Lancettier, 3-Black Panther

Race 9: Speed (Strong) - Open sprints down the straight are always a testing assignment and there should be good speed here from some natural front runners: Bold Matador, Early Singer and Monahan Tweed. The horses drawn wide may well be advantaged again but if they win down the rail in the other straight races then you'll need to adjust your selections accordingly. This race is a bit of a lottery, really. Amyjaye Power get into this race very well and has drawn the right spot if they're winning down the grandstand side. I won't put quaddies on until I've seen the other straight races (assuming the TAB hasn't completely melted down by this point; at least they have a ready made excuse for the meltdown - global warming) to determine which side has an advantage, if any. Selections: 2-Amyjaye Power, 1-Stratton Place, 11-Byway

Race 10: Speed (Average) - Leaders look to be Free The Robber, Zaheerina and Storm Ace from Creek Side, Flying Langfuhr and Roubechon. I think that the ones at the top of the weights have this one to themselves and I won't be going wide to finish off the quaddie. Roubechon plummets in class so far his ears will pop. He has drawn ideally and will be hard to hold out. Flying Langfuhr is also down in grade. He's been running well and will get a good run from the gate. Bodacious Harmony has enough early speed to get a good position and she'll be right there at the end. Selections: 1-Roubechon, 2-Flying Langfuhr, 14-Bodacious Harmony

Yesterday: There was one meeting, at Hamilton, which was uninteresting in the extreme even if I did do very well on the three races I invested on.

POOMAs: 1 from 2 yesterday returning a short $1.50. Well, Vereker Street notched up an overdue win at 1/2. He settled nicely a bit further back than he has raced previously and he rounded them up nicely in the straight. I counted our other selection Classy Run's legs as he went across the line and he still seemed to have all four but I think he may have been only using three of them in the run, as he put in a shocker as favourite only beating one to the line.

2006 MELBOURNE CUP ANALYSIS

The 2006 edition of the great race brings together a high quality collection of local and international stayers to ensure that this year's winner is from the top shelf. Can the highly rated Irish stayer, Yeats, show Australia how good he really is? Can the 3YO, Efficient, also be effective? (* update - not now that he's scratched *) Can Tawqeet prove that he's the best stayer in the country by following up on his Metropolitan and Caulfield Cup wins with victory today? Whatever the outcome, we'll know the answers some three minutes and twenty seconds after the gates crash back to the roar of what will undoubtedly be a mighty crowd at Flemington.

It’s worth noting that seemingly every year one of the internationals manages to run a place. Last year’s running lacked a bit of depth from the internationals (outside of the great Vinnie Roe) but in 2004 Vinnie Roe ran 2nd, in 2003 Jardine’s Lookout ran 3rd, in 2002 Media Puzzle won (after winning the Geelong Cup) and Beekeeper ran 3rd, in 2001 Give The Slip ran 2nd and the mighty Persian Punch 3rd, in 2000 Second Coming ran 3rd, in 1999 Central Park ran 2nd, and in 1998 Persian Punch ran 3rd. They always tend to pay really well for the place, also, so if you like one then you’ll get good place value.

My tips: 4-Tawqeet, 5-Geordiland, 12-Pop Rock, 23-Maybe Better

Full summary, as follows:

1-Yeats - This horse is obviously a top class stayer and he’s run in 6 Group 1 staying events in Europe in 11 career starts, winning 2 and being placed in another. He won Ascot Gold Cup at 4000m and then the Goodwood Cup at 3200m before going down as a 2/7 favourite last time out in the Irish St Leger when he went to the front a long way out and had no sprint at the end. The only horse in recent years to run a place with 59kg was the great Vintage Crop when 3rd in 1999 though Makybe Diva won with 58kg and Vinnie Roe ran 2nd with the same weight in 2004. Is Yeats as good as Vintage Crop, Vinnie Roe or Makybe Diva? I don’t think so though if I’m keen enough to play a First4 I’ll stick him in for 3rd/4th. It also can’t help that Kieren Fallon is having his first race ride at Flemington in this.

2-Delta Blues - This horse ran a great race in the Caulfield Cup to run 3rd after being deep all of the way and kill my trifecta, which paid $30K. With the Japanese getting better at taking their good horses overseas in recent years you have to be wary of them. He’s run against Deep Impact and Heart’s Cry, Japan’s top horses, and done OK so I won’t write him off completely but think he’s probably a 3rd/4th place chance like Yeats.

3-Railings - If this one wins then we’ll all have to bow down to a great training performance by John Hawkes. He keeps on running home but even from his nice draw and with Darren Beadman on board I can only rate him a fluker’s chance at best. That said, he’ll probably finish in the first half of the field.

4-Tawqeet - This fellow has been my long range pick for the Melbourne Cup and I’ll stick with him. His wins in the Metropolitan and Caulfield Cup have been very strong and he’ll be absolutely cherry ripe for this. Has drawn perfectly in 9 and I’m sure that in form jockey, Dwayne Dunn, will give him the run of the race.

5-Geordiland - I reckon that this one is the perfect type of horse to bring from Europe for a Melbourne Cup. He ran 2nd to Yeats first up in the 3200m Goodwood Cup beaten 5L. Frankie eased him down considerably at the end and really should have only been beaten 2L and the fact that he meets Yeats 3kg better and has the luxury weight (for him) of just 54kg gives him a great chance. He then ran 4th in the Ebor with 61.5kg over 2800m, which was a good enough run even though he finished behind runner up, Glistening, which he meets 1.5kg better.

6-Headturner - People keep telling me that this horse is a chance. Don’t worry about his lead up form; he’s been set for the one race, they say. What the heck have the other 23 runners (perhaps excluding Efficient) been doing if not getting set for this? The only thing going for him is that he’ll be fit and will be ridden by Greg Childs. If you’re backing this one at less than $100 then you’re getting unders.

7-Short Pause - If Short Pause wins then there’ll be a Long Pause while punters look forlornly at their tickets for number 7 before disposing of them (stick them in the bin!) and sauntering over to the bar for a soothing tonic. He’ll be looking to catch the St Kilda tram about 800m out but won’t find one handy even if he could work the ticket machine with his hooves, and will finish near the rear.

8-Activation - Why oh why oh why couldn’t this horse lob 3rd in the Caulfield Cup and give me the trifecta? He had a perfect run on the fence, got off at the right time and was outstayed by a horse that sat wide all of the way. He has not dissimilar form to when Makybe Diva won her first Cup with a 4444 formline, which showed she was always making ground from back in the field. The fact that he’s drawn 22 is a real problem for Michael Rodd, as he’ll need to snag the horse out the back to get to the fence and then look for a rails run on the way home. Unfortunately, there’ll be too many in front of him and I think he’s really only a rough chance.

9-Land 'n' Stars - At first glance you’d write this horse off completely but given the fact that his most recent wins have been at 16/1, 33/1, 50/1 and 12/1 you’d have to think that he might be the right odds at $50 in this. The hardness of the track might have been against him in the Caulfield Cup so, whereas it would be a surprise for him to run in the first half dozen, I might stick him in some multiples as one with a fluker’s hope.

10- Mahtoum - It’s nice that Mark Waugh’s missus, Kim, will have a Melbourne Cup runner and it’d be even nicer if it just stays out of the way and doesn’t bugger up the chances of the genuine hopes. Kim has been racing this one out of his grade for a little while. She should aim at winning Country Cups with him.

11-On A Jeune - Steamed home from back in the field for 2nd in last year’s Cup behind the great mare. That followed a narrow win in the Geelong Cup, a race in which he finished 6th this year under the steadier of 58kg. I doubt the strength of this year’s Geelong Cup because the time was much slower than when he won last year or when Media Puzzle set a track record. He drops down to 53kg, which is a leisurely weight given what he’s used to and could lob a place at odds.

12-Pop Rock - His was a terrific run in the Caulfield Cup when he went up the straight on one rein, as he was hanging, but still made ground strongly to finish 7th beaten only 1.4L on a day when it was hard to make ground from the back of the field. He looks to have genuine claims at what will be his first start at two miles.

13-Zipping - He was my long range Caulfield Cup tip and I was very confident on the day but the way the track played conspired against him so I thought he was unlucky. He followed up with a win in the MV Cup but I don’t think he’s a chance here, as he’s by Danehill and the two miles will be beyond him. Elvstroem was a much better horse, also by Danehill, was out of staying mare, Circles Of Gold, and he could only run 4th so I’m prepared to put the pen through Zipping, though he’ll probably run in the first half of the field.

14-Dizelle - She keeps running creditably, as she did again when a 1.6L 8th in the Caulfield Cup but you’d have to think that if she was the best of the John Hawkes runners then Darren Beadman would be riding her. She’s bred to be terrific but hasn’t really got there. I think she could finish in the first half of the field.

15-Ice Chariot - Here’s another runner that would cause stress to most punters if he managed to run a place let alone win the whole thing. His lead up form is hopeless and I expect him to finish in the back half of the field.

16-Kerry O'Reilly - He sneaks in with a light weight given what he’s used to but I can’t see him figuring anywhere in the finish even if he was a bit unlucky in the Geelong Cup. As his name suggests, he’s by O’Reilly, which is better known as a sire of sprinters than stayers so he’d have to be a big query at the trip. I’ll put him down to finish with the cap catchers.

17-Zabeat - Looks the likely pacemaker from his wide draw and I predict he’ll need a pacemaker of his own about half a mile out given his last run. If a horse can come off being beaten 32.7L and run well in a Melbourne Cup then I’ll go whee, even if he does have good two mile form with a win and three placings from six goes.

18-Art Success - He may well have won the Brisbane Cup over two miles last year but that race is generally full of scrubbers – Gorgeous George ran 2nd (who?) and Sculptor 3rd (who?) – and his lead up form hasn’t been good enough to figure here. Good luck to connections in having a Melbourne Cup runner. I hope they enjoy the day.

19-Demerger - She had similar lead in form to last year’s Cup in which she finished 13th beaten 8L and she looks to be a contender for another midfield finish this year. She’s drawn off the track, which isn’t necessarily a problem as Brew showed in 2000 when winning from gate 22, but she doesn’t have the tactical speed to get a position that will help her get home.

20-Glistening - Everyone has written this English stayer off, as he’s only won one race from 11 goes and that was a Maiden last year. However, his form shows a 2nd to Tawqeet at York last year, a 2nd in the Ebor with 57kg when beating home Geordiland two starts back, and a 3rd at Group 3 level last time over 2400m at Ascot. With only 51kg he would have to be a teensy-weensy hope in this even from his draw out in the car park and I’ll stick it in multiples.

21-Mandela - I don’t rate the form from this year’s Geelong Cup so don’t give this one any hope at all. My main issue is that the time was so slow when in the past the horses that have come through that race and performed well have run in a quick race at Geelong. The real advantage if he has any is that he’s got the in form Craig Williams to guide him from his OK barrier draw.

22-Dolphin Jo - Here’s another runner that will suck in the money of all the Joes, Josephines and whatnot out there but to no avail, as he has as much hope as I do of winning the 100m at the 2008 Beijing Olympics. It’ll be nice for connections to have a runner.

23-Maybe Better - My first view of this horse was that he wouldn’t be competitive however I’ve reassessed my position and think that he is really a very good each way chance. His last two runs have been excellent lead ups for a Melbourne Cup and to sneak in with just 50kg puts him in the Brew category. I potted this horse for being one paced in his runs but trainer, Brian Mayfield-Smith, has changed tactics (probably due to bad barriers) and allowed the horse to settle back and run home and he has really improved. He’s drawn 3 so I hope they don’t try and position too close early, allow him to settle midfield and come with his run in the straight. I do have a bit of a query of him running a strong two miles given he’s by Intergaze but he does seem to defy the trend.

24-Efficient - SCRATCHED.

SELECTIONS - 6 November 2006

POOMA selections:

Hamilton 2-6 Vereker Street
Hamilton 7-2 Classy Run

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Muswellbrook 4-1

Today: Two meetings today, which is normal for a Monday but is especially useful as we can spend more time (over-) analysing the Melbourne Cup meeting. I've mentioned before my dislike of the Muswellbrook track. The only New Year's Resolution I've ever kept was the one a few years ago not to bet on greyhound races. Betting on Muswellbrook is nearly in the same category (along with Sydney metro racing until it gets cleaned up) though 4-1 Dromos has won his last two starts convincingly. We're going to forget about how badly burned our fingers have been recently with Vereker Street and follow up on him at Hamilton. This is the worst field he's been in for yonks and I reckon he should be a $2 chance. Danger looks to be Trans Atlantic who was backed from 3/1 into 1/1 at his first start back before running on for 6th. Classy Run returns to Hamilton to try and repeat the dose of his last start Class 1 win in this Class 2 race. He managed to overcome a vet's inspection to win that race, coming home nicely. This is not a super strong field, either, and I'd suggest that around $3.50 will be the right price.

Yesterday: Sundays don't tend to produce much worth commenting on other than the main races of the day and the Showcase events in Victoria, the form of which tends to stand up. I'll start over in the west where the followers of the powerful Lindsey Smith stable were hammered. Belarus ran 2nd at $1.30, Campbell's Chariot was unplaced at $2, Woodlore unplaced at $6.10 and Danby Wiske 2nd at $1.50 before Lip Service got home in the last as a $1.80 favourite. He's a good trainer so is probably worth following next week as his form returns to normal. At Mornington, General Ralph won again and can go on with it. His Maiden win was powerful and in yesterday's Class 1 event he was 2L behind the eventual runner up at the 200m mark before accelerating to a 2L win. He runs around a bit so still has a lot to learn, which indicates a horse of some promise, as he's winning on sheer ability at the moment. I'll nominate Romantic Journey's race as one to follow the form out of; it was a good field. The winner can keep winning, as well. Master O'Reilly is a stayer of some promise and he racked up the hat trick when winning a Class 4 event over 2400m. He settled way out the back around the tight Mornington circuit but rounded them up quickly in the straight for a simple win. Watch for him in town.

POOMAs: 2 from 6 yesterday returning $9.40 so a good profit was achieved. Divine Spirit was a miserable effort, really, and I should have taken my own advice about being wary of good runs from last start $10+ horses. Rock The Lock then put things to right by inching home at out of the way Parkes at a very useful $6.70. Given his run two starts back I was surprised that he didn't start as favourite. On The Nose then almost succeeded in leading all of the way but was collared late by a $60+ shot, which is always a tad hard to take (unless you've backed the outsider). Bob'nhop won pretty convincingly in the last at Terang at $2.70 and looked to have a bit left in the locker. If they don't shoot too high with him then he can win again. Karikuri was given a nice run on the rails and ran OK to finish 4th as a $15 shot; pity she couldn't lob a place. Way over in WA, Danby Wiske then failed to get home in the Maiden as a long odds on shot when caught near the line by a horse having its 27th start, which doesn't auger well for either the favourite or any of those behind him, I'd suggest.

SELECTIONS - 5 October 2006

POOMA selections:

Mornington 2-10 Divine Spirit
Mornington 9-7 Karikuri
Mt Barker 6-6 Danby Wiske
Parkes 3-5 Rock The Lock
Sunshine Coast 7-3 On The Nose
Terang 8-1 Bob'nhop

(* Daylight savings buggers things up with scratchings and whatnot so I'll do an update at around midday if necessary - UPDATED*)

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Hobart 1-3
Sunshine Coast 1-3, 1-12, 3-2
Terang 5-3

Today: The wet tracks are a bit offputting around the place but given that my long-term well performing systems have a few selections today I'll stick with them even though they went through a lull last month. Mornington 2-10 Divine Spirit started at 20/1 last time and ran a strong 2nd behind Tango Amigos, which won nicely at MV on Friday night so that's good enough for this. I don't normally like backing horses that started at double figure odds at their last start but this one looks OK. 9-7 Karikuri has an average record of 3/29 but keeps running on and this distance will suit her ideally. Mt Barker 6-6 Danby Wiske is by one of the sires that I'm keeping a close eye on in Blackfriars, as his progeny seem to have started very well. He ran a good race at his first run and the step up in trip will suit him today. Sunshine Coast 7-3 On The Nose seems to have snuck in under people's guard in this race. He'll probably lead this field from his good draw and the wet track should pose no problem. Miss Kocomo looks the quinella horse there. Terang 8-1 Bob'nhop was scratched from a meeting during the week in favour of this race. Backing last start Maiden winners in Class 1 events is fraught with danger but he was very impressive with the way he really accelerated away up the straight to win in quick time for that track and this doesn't look an overly difficult assignment.

Yesterday: At Flemington I thought that Permaiscuous was really good in winning the first race. Had I known how much the track would favour on pace runners then I would have put her on top and loaded up. She's won 6/10, which is a more than handy record. Maybe Better won the SAAB Quality nicely in a performance that has people talking up his Melbourne Cup chances. I reckon that if a horse like Activation was in that race yesterday then he would have smashed them and I think he's only a rough e/w chance in the Cup so I'm prepared to go around Maybe Better on Tuesday. Gold Edition was the win of the day in my view. The way she powered away from them at the 300m mark was terrific to watch. She's been a bit of an iron horse given she's had 17 starts for 8 wins and 4 placings as an early season 3YO. Splashing Out was also very good in that race. Tuesday Joy got the inside run home around the corner and won convincingly and she's obviously the Oaks favourite but given how many horses' chances were ruined by coming wide I'm not too sure what that will mean for that race. Seachange was unlucky to get picked up by Lyrical Bid after doing all of the hard yakka out front. She's obviously a good mare. Efficient was dominant in the Derby but he also got that inside run around the corner, which was critical on the day. I don't think he's as good as Nothin' Leica Dane was when that horse won the Derby and then ran a placing in the Melbourne Cup. Today's field is stronger than that one so I'm prepared to go against him, as well. Desert War was just terrific. Well done to Gai for finally working out that to win Group 1 races in Melbourne she has to aim the horse at the race rather than take a horse that's been in good form in a bunch of good races in Sydney and then bringing them to Melbourne near the end of their campaigns. Same goes for Dance Hero, which led all of the way to win the Salinger in a tip top effort. Malcolm has always been over rated, in my book, but he was in the right grade yesterday, sat closer to the pace, which is against his normal racing pattern but was necessary given the way the track was playing, and got home strongly. The $14+ win of Dance Hero meant a good day for me overall.

POOMAs: 1 from 5 yesterday returning a meagre $1.70. At Flemington, Rendzina was never a chance the way the track was playing (which caused much negative comment from trainers), as she tried to make her run wide around the corner and got stuck in the slow lane. Seachange was desperately unlucky, I thought, and put up a really good effort after trying to lead all of the way and getting taken on for most of it. Who's Ya Daddy also got stuck in the slow lane but the fact that he was going slowly at the time didn't help so he was never a chance. Cardgames managed to win at Newcastle at short odds and Pedal Pedal is still peddling away somewhere at Traralgon.