SELECTIONS - 30 September 2006

POOMA selections:

Mornington 3-7 Late Change
Mornington 6-14 Savlate

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Belmont 1-1, 2-1, 6-2, 6-6, 8-1
Doomben 1-2, 1-9
Newcastle 3-1
Randwick 2-11, 4-5

Today: I do not like betting at Mornington as a rule but today we have a city class meeting highlighted by the $100,000 Ansett Classic, a 2000m Listed race. We are continuing to follow the Stavka/Suspects/Yappa form (SSY form), which is why 3-7 Late Change is a POOMA in what is a very good Class 3 field. He drops 2kg, will lead or sit outside the pace and be right in the finish. Last start he ran 2nd to Bon Hoffa who came out and won on Thursday at the strong Ballarat meeting, which followed his powerful all the way first up win. 6-14 Savlate has everything made to order in the main race of the day. He's drawn well, is in on the limit and races handy and should be good odds. At Seymour there are a few runners that have the SSY form so we'll watch and see how they go. 2-9 Barefoot Marvel drew 15 of 15, jumped quickly to be outside the leader, Yappa, last time at Ballarat but was 6-8 deep meaning that when the turn came she lost ground at which point Baster simply sat on her until the end so that he was beaten more than 20L leading to stewards querying Baster on the ride. 5-2 Benzmark was beaten 15L behind Suspects last time, which is about the same margin as the thing that thrashed them at Balaklava was beaten in the same race. He was beaten 9L by Maximgun and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him improve here. 6-3 Salt Lake City was beaten nearly 10L by Bon Hoffa first up from a spell after drawing 16 of 16. He drops in grade here and I'm going to have a little each way on him. Rounding out the SSY form is 9-11 Glowing Storm. This 3YO filly was beaten 7.5L by Stavka first up at Bendigo and this is an easier race. I'm not that keen on anything else from around the country. At Randwick I'll go for Desert War to upset them in the George Main like he did last year and in the last there it looks like a match race between Kakakakatie and Coolroom Candidate.

Yesterday: An amazing evening at MV with both black type races decided in the stewards' room. Magic Jet was first home in the Stutt Stakes but drifted out in the straight and Churchill Downs got the race on protest. I have to say that I never thought that Churchill Downs was going to win the race and it was an appalling decision by an appalling and inconsistent stewards' panel. The Spinney decision was a tad easier for them, as Spinney rolled in on top of Pavlova and cost her the race. I made the comment yesterday that I wanted to see whether Spinney would confirm the Lad Of The Manor form or not and the answer is - not. The good form is the El Segundo form and I think you can write off Lad Of The Manor (except at MV for a place in the Cox Plate), Apache Cat, Spinney et al for the big races this spring. Not much to comment on otherwise from around the rest of the country though you'd think that Regal Megan can keep winning at Rockhampton given the way she thrashed them in the third race there yesterday.

POOMAs: One selections yesterday at Stawell in race one with No Fuse landing in the last hop at around even money after looking in trouble 200m out. Keeps the good POOMA run going.

SELECTIONS - 29 September 2006

POOMA selections:

Stawell 1-1 No Fuse

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Moonee Valley 2-3
Rockhampton 2-1
Stawell 8-10
Tamworth 2-1

(* MV Updated*)

Today: Our POOMA comes up early with Stawell 1-1 No Fuse, which comes from one of my most successful systems. He steps up to Class 1 company after beating Peter Moody's Gold Delta last time at Ararat and faces nothing but Maidens. General Vandal is first up for the Moody stable and is probably the danger. Up at Rockhampton, 2-1 Cearnaigh comes from another very well performing systems though it's hard to get too excited about a horse that's won one from his last 16 starts. If I can get around $4.50 then I'd have a go. Tamworth 2-1 Designer Cleo drops in grade here and gets her chance to win another race. It's not much of a day to have a go. I'll have a look at the MV meeting when scratchings etc are in and update then. The Moonee Valley night meeting doesn't look a very good place to be having a real go. Outside of Spinney there's really nothing that stands out and he'll go around at short odds. 3-2 Dance Maiden has been racing handy and is unlucky to not have broken her duck yet being beaten less than 1/2 length at her last three runs. I'd be a bit surprised if she didn't run a place at least. In race 5, Belle Bizarre and Brockman's Lass appear to plummet in class but if you put the horse that beat them last time, Astrodame, in this field it'd start 10/1 so I'm a bit suspicious of how strong that form is. That said, Belle Bizarre will get a good run up on the pace and might be too good for them. Look for an improved run from Ulysses in that race. I thought that Ankh Morpork could beat them last time in the race in which Escadaire led all of the way. Off a slow tempo, Ankh Morpork got to the line really well and there'll be more pace here, which will suit him even better, as will the step up in trip. If he runs around at better than $12 then I'll have an each way go. Spinney looks the goods in race 7. He's down in class and weight, up to a more suitable trip and has drawn to get the right run. He's $2.80 on the morning line but I can't see how he'll start any more than $2.20. I'll be watching his run closely, as I want to see the Lad Of The Manor form franked or otherwise. In the last Aurelio gets his chance to lead all of the way and win a race. Damien Oliver has a good record at the Valley and this horse has good form in better races.

Yesterday: So there you go. The Stavka/Suspects/Yappa form works out almost beautifully with the wins of Stavka and Bon Hoffa, though Suspects raced ungenerously outside the leader in his race and weakened to finish 4th. Stavka showed what a really good horse he is by comfortably winning his 1100m Class 2 assignment in slick time. Make no mistake - this is a serious racehorse and, if he stays sound, is going to be similar to Takeover Target in putting together a sequence of wins and competing at the top level. I had a strong bet on him and was never worried. Poised To Win had a terrific run and really flogged them in Suspects' race. He is not a bad horse either and is definitely going to be competitive in midweek city class. Lottery King was my other big bet of the day and he duly got the money albeit narrowly with Blake Shinn having to mollycoddle him to the line, as he was running in under pressure. He didn't have much weight and really didn't ping in the straight so I'd suggest that, while he was too good for an average field yesterday, he's probably not a city class horse. Bon Hoffa, who beat Yappa at his last run, won the last by 3/4 length and is definitely up to city class. In a slowly run affair there was never going to be a big winning margin but he always looked to be travelling nicely and had the leader covered a long way out.

POOMAs: 3 wins from 4 selections returning $7 total taking POOMAs to 36/69 since focusing on Victorian racing only two months ago.

SELECTIONS - 28 September 2006

POOMA selections:

Bendigo 5-3 Stavka
Bendigo 6-3 Suspects
Bendigo 7-2 Lottery King
Bendigo 8-2 Bon Hoffa

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Lismore 4-2, 6-5
Narrogin 1-2, 3-4

Today: Well, I'm trying to pick the Bendigo quaddie blanc today with a selection in each leg. There is a terrific clash today in race 5; 2-Samadji thrashed them first up at Ararat 12 days ago and only missed the track record by 0.1s. At his previous run before a spell he ran 2nd to Jayemzed (the heavily backed POOMA that was beaten at MV yesterday), which followed a win at Swan Hill in slick time. 3-Stavka is a really terrific horse who has had bad legs, which is why he went from the Freedman stable to the Morgan stable, as Peter Morgan is known for doing well with bad-legged horses. He is by average sire Xaar out of super mare, Special (who still holds the Flemington 1000m track record at 55.5) and was electrifying when thumping a Class 1 field last time. 11-Helmut Varshing flogged them first up at Swan Hill before stepping into Class 3 company as a short priced favourite and running 6th. I think that Stavka is the go. I'm following 6-3 Suspects for a few runs, as he is a really sharp performer also and I don't need to expand too much on the reasons given how highly I rate the form around this horse. 7-2 Lottery King really has everything made to order today. He's been running on strongly over shorter trips than today's mile and a half assignment and will have every chance to win. 8-2 Bon Hoffa knocked over Yappa first up last time in a powerful performance coming from the back of the field after drawing wide in a very strong field. 4-O'Reilly's Clock ran a good race behind Bon Hoffa last time after drawing one wider than that horse in gate 15 of 16 that day yet he was beaten on 2.7L. He can run the quinella spot. Looks like a good day to have a go. I won't even be looking at the other meetings around the country.

Yesterday: I have mentioned how strong the form around Suspects/Stavka/Yappa is and that was once again shown when Morning Colours who ran 4th to Yappa in a Ballarat Maiden last time beaten nearly 11 lengths came out and donkey licked them as a $1.40 favourite. At Canterbury, Johanrutz managed to get beaten but I didn't get hurt too badly, as I couldn't get a reasonable price so reduced my bet accordingly. The stable was particularly confident but the horse really was a bit weak in finishing 2nd. Wasn't much of a day at Moonee Valley with the winners getting a run up the inside on the corner for the most part so I'm not too sure the form will hold up apart from Jeune's Edge who did a fair job as topweight.

POOMAs: Two selections yesterday with the result being that for each $1 you sent for a ride you got $1 back. MV 5-11 Jayemzed was very heavily backed into $2.80 favourite (which was way too short in my view), jumped with them from his wide gate, simply wouldn't settle, pulled himself into the ground and was gone on the corner. I'm going to go back and look at his replays again, as I think he might be a tad soft and can only win when he gets things made to order. Doomben 8-4 Junk Bond was around $3 until a few minutes before the race at which point he was also very heavily backed into $2. As I predicted, he went straight to the front, dictated the pace and was never in doubt. POOMAs are now 33/65 at 32% profit since the start of August when I changed to focusing mainly on Victorian racing (there have been 4 non-Victorian tips in that time with the only loss being the tragedy beaten that was Sea Zulu in Brisbane a few weeks ago).

SELECTIONS - 27 September 2006

POOMA selections:

Doomben 8-4 Junk Bond
Moonee Valley 5-11 Jayemzed

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Belmont 3-1, 5-2 ,6-3
Canterbury 2-7, 3-6, 4-5, 6-5
Doomben 4-2
Moonee Valley 7-2

Today: Some OK meetings around the country today and we have a rare non-Victorian POOMA in the form of Doomben 8-4 Junk Bond. This horse will settle in the lead from his good gate, probably with Time Lion on his outside, at an average tempo and then kick away and win. Mandy Radecker is a good judge of a front runner and with only 50.5kg he looks the goods. The other general selection at Doomben, 4-2 Lion Kingdom, is having his first run for the Brian Guy stable after doing his racing in Far North Queensland. This is a very suitable assignment with the only query being the three weeks off and step back up in trip. Our other POOMA is at Moonee Valley (where the POOMAs have a good record of 29/80) with 5-11 Jayemzed coming from one of my all time favourite systems. This lightly raced Lion Cavern 4YO really won handsomely last time at Ballarat beating the enigmatic Drac's Back (who won his next start) by a lazy 4L. In the last at Moonee Valley, 8-2 Di's Angel looks in with a fair chance after her improved run last time in Group 2 company behind Astrodame. This former Taswegian mare ran well down there last campaign and might be striking some of that form. It's interesting to note that she ran 5th in the Tasmanian Oaks on 23Feb05 then returned from a spell on 30Oct05 and had a good campaign, which ended on 22Feb06 with a 4th in the Hobart Cup. This preparation she returned on 16Aug06 meaning she's had a much shorter break between campaigns (by more than two months) than last time and it might be that as we move towards October she gets better. Darren Beadman has the chance to win 3 or 4 races at Canterbury and, surprise, surprise, they'll all be short. Nick Olive should notch up a win with 6-5 Johanrutz who looks very well placed; I'll be trying to get an acceptable price in order to have a real crack at it. Over in the west, Belmont 3-1 Metro Miss comes from some well performing sytems. The trick I see is that she's won her two races there on dead ground and then hasn't backed up on a good track, which she sees again today. 6-3 Say Cherie also looks to have a good chance but I'd be watching 8-Metal Mayhem. Her first start in a race was terrific in finishing 4th after drawing off the track, being back all the way and then rocketing to the line.

Yesterday: I have a system that I use to determine the suitability of Darren Beadman mounts, which picked two from two yesterday. However, given he rode 5 winners on the 7 race card and should have had 6 but for some bad luck, any system you'd like to use would have picked a bunch of winners too. I had a whack at the race to race double on the Steeple into the Hurdle at Moe and was never really going to lose that bet in spite of Cyclonic Bay getting a bit wayward late at what was his first jumps start. I think that they could both be competitive in better class and it might be an idea to take them to Adelaide for some higher prizemoney.

POOMAs: Our selection at Moe, Classicarl, was nabbed in the last couple of bounds after what I though was an impatient ride by Matt Allen. He didn't have to respond in the way he did to being attacked by one of the outsiders but that sounds like sour grapes, doesn't it? Heh.

SELECTIONS - 26 September 2006

POOMA selections:

Moe 3-1 Cassicarl

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Moe 2-4
Townsville 1-2, 6-10
Warwick Farm 1-2, 5-4, 7-6

(* updates at around 11.30AM if any * Now updated - POOMA included *)

Today: Funny little meetings today but there look a few potential winners out there. The POOMA selection, Moe 3-1, won his last start at Bairnsdale quite nicely. He rises 3kg in weight and has had a month off but there are only a couple of threats in the small field. He's 2 from 2 at Moe and has last start jockey, Matthew Allen, on board so I think he'll get home. He comes from a system that is 11/19 since going live in June (which includes 7 winning selections in a row). I'm reasonably keen on Moe 2-4 Cycolnic Bay to make a successful jumping debut even though he's up against a few with form directly above him in the weights. He won a trial well, has recently won an Open class flat race and can race handy. The upgrade to dead track from slow enhances my confidence. Working Class Man looks like he'll win the first even if he does meet them all worse at the weights after trouncing them last time at Pakenham on a slow track. Townsville 1-2 Capital Flow comes out of a systems that's 15/30 since going live however it's a very even field and based on his run against a couple of others in July I won't be going in hard. The morning line price of $3 seems about right and if that's available then he might be worth a go. A couple of runners first up in north Qld are in race 6. 10-Ariencielle and 14 Wotz Fong don't look to have the form to win though last time I said that about one of Roy Chillemi's it lobbed at $20. Beadman's rides in races 1 and 5 look to be strong chances though 1-2 Amerryking will be quite short. Look for Athelnoth to make things hard for him in that race. 5-4 Nod looks the goods in his race and there's no way we'll get the $4.50 of the morning line.

Yesterday: As predicted it was a bit of a nothing day really yesterday. Mick Kent's Trick Of Light won first up in Australia in a fair performance for a horse that will be suited over longer. He might have a fair performer there. Basto Man did well to win the last under his weight after looking in real trouble on the corner. As long as he doesn't rise too much in class then he can keep winning. At Port Macquarie, Terror looked likely to win until about 100m out when it was clear that the leader was kicking strongly. Caused me a deal of pain, that one! Luckily, I had decided to have a First4 at Albury in race 5 that was won by a $40 shot for a handy dividend.

POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.

SELECTIONS - 25 September 2006

POOMA selections:

There are no POOMA selections today

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Kilmore 4-1
Port Macquarie 7-1, 7-2

Today: A bit of a ho-hum day today with average meetings at Albury, Kilmore and Port Macquarie. I do think we'll get a fair price about 7-2 Terror at Port Macquarie because it's drawn wide and steps out of Maiden company into a Class 1 today, which is always tough in spite of how far they win their Maiden by. It comes from a very well performing system and should be around $3.50. It clashes with another from a good system, 7-1 Nadobe, and they really do look like the quinella. I don't know what to make of Moody's 4-1 Very Hot at Kilmore after her two inglorious runs from a spell. She was a bit outclassed first up in Class 5 company and drew wide last time when not having much luck behind Bon Hoffa with Yappa 2nd. Given she has the Stavka/Suspects/Yappa form around her she's worth looking at but with Luke Nolan back from suspension she won't be any fancy price. Mick Kent has an interesting runner in race 7 with the topweight, Trick Of Light, that has had one start in the UK for a win over 2000m last year. I expect Jezeera to run a better race in that one.

Yesterday: I managed to squeek a profit but it was one of those "oh so close" days. I missed the last leg of the Sunshine Coast quaddie by a wart, which was paying $5K and then the one I'd pointed out at Echuca that I thought would improve, Teravue, which was paying $20+, got nabbed 10m out with me only having a win bet and a First4 with it stood out. The latter paid $10K so I was a tad miffed that we couldn't get the chocolates. Anyhoo, that's the way it goes sometimes. The ones I picked out at Northam (both came from good systems) went like two-legged crabs so that came to nothing but the win of Emergence in the first at Echuca meant we got a result there.

POOMAs: Sunburnt Land was a tragedy beaten in race 2 at Sandown yesterday. All his jockey, Brent Stanley, needed to do was take him to the outside at the top of the straight rather than go back to the inside and then try to get a run between the three that were fighting the finish out. Stanley eased the horse in the last 50m, as he had nowhere to go. Hate to see that with a $5 shot. The race was won by Furio who was terrific value at $7. The rest of the meeting was subsequently abandoned due to the high wind and the fact that the rail wasn't secure. Someone at the MRC should get their arse kicked big time for that.

SELECTIONS - 24 September 2006

POOMA selections:

Sandown 2-6 Sunburnt Land
Sandown 5-13 Stavka

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Colac 2-8, 4-2, 4-10
Echuca 1-1, 5-4, 6-4, 8-10
Murray Bridge 6-5
Northam 6-1, 8-2

Today: Two POOMA selections today, both at Caulfield. 2-6 Sunburnt Land won his debut at Wangaratta in the style that says 'follow me'. He then settled near the rear and finished midfield behind Danever in a much stronger race on a day where backmarkers were not winning. His finishing sectionals were very good and I'm sure that he won't be anywhere near the $8 posted on the morning line. Furio comes out of the same race and finished one place ahead of Sunburnt Land but he positioned much closer to the speed, which helped a lot. 5-13 Stavka comes to town after two good wins at Echuca and Bendigo. In his Maiden win at Echuca he ran less than 0.4s outside of the course record when leading all of the way to narrowly beat home Suspects who then ran 2nd to Yappa before killing them in his Maiden win. The Stavka/Suspects/Yappa form is holding up very well. At his second start at Bendigo he settled midfield and came with a terrific sprint when Blake Shinn got him into the clear to win comprehensively in good time. This looks a really suitable race for him and he'll be each way odds. The non-POOMA selections at Echuca look OK on paper, as well, and I expect that one in the last, Zygote, to run an improved race. Murray Bridge 6-5 Terravue comes out of two Listed races in which he finished close enough and has everything made to order in this and I'll be backing both of the selections at Northam. All in all, it looks like another good day to have a go.

Yesterday: A pretty good day of racing at Caulfield yesterday. Tesbury Jack was much shorter than I expected and got the prize in a nice performance. He's another one that's a rung below the good ones so his trainer will need to be careful to place him to advantage. Everyong let Wonderful World get under their guard in the Guineas Prelude but made them look second rate. He obviously can't run right-handed, which is shown by his form in Melbourne being 1123 and in Sydney 000. Sharkbite was a bit one paced again and it's a bit hard to see anything that finished behind the winner beating him home in the Guineas. Miss Finland's performance was pretty tough in what was a tricky race to win. She just got home from stablemate, Anamato, and both horses are by super sire Redoute's Choice. Miss Finland is one of the very few top 2YOs from last season to go on with it as an early season 3YO. I went against El Segundo due to the setback he had and the horse made me look like a mug with an outstanding performance in the win of the day. I had commented before the race that I couldn't understand how Eremein could be the Cox Plate favourite ahead of El Segundo (or others). That will obviously change after El Segundo's win and Eremein's defeat. Another to make me look like a mug was Rewaaya who made it two in a row with a solid win in a good field, though the runner up, Miss Andretti, should have won. Now that she's worked out how to avoid trouble it might be that she goes on with it. Queen Of The Hill showed that she's probably a spring mare only with a dominant win over race favourite, Megadeal. She could sneak into some good races with a low weight and be a fair chance. Zipping did the job in the last race with his 58kg by overcoming a bit of difficulty to win in the last few hops. I've still got him at the top of my Caulfield Cup selections. The runner up, Show Barry, showed he was back on track with a nice run and Growl took another step in grade and acquited himself well. Up in Sydney, Fast 'n' Famous realy whupped them in the Starlight Stakes. My old horse, Into The Night, won a Starlight and I have a nice trophy sitting at home from it. Yesterday's winner looks really good and is an up and comer to the top sprinting ranks. The Gloaming Stakes demonstrated how bad Sydney racing is at the moment with a shocking field lining up and the winner coming off a Class 3 win. Following on from the seven horse Cameron Handicap at Newcastle and poor quality Newcastle Cup during the week I think that Sydney racing is in some trouble. That's what you get when you frig around with the race classes a few years back.

POOMAs: Kaphero let the side down yesterday with the three other POOMA selections, Tesbury Jack, Miss Finland and Zipping, all winning returning $6.30 on NSW TAB, which takes the POOMAs to a useful 32/61 (52.5%) at 37% profit since the start of August.

SELECTIONS - 23 September 2006

POOMA selections:

Caulfield 1-1 Kaphero
Caulfield 3-11 Tesbury Jack
Caulfield 5-1 Miss Finland
Caulfield 9-1 Zipping

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Belmont 3-1, 4-6, 6-4
Caulfield 1-8, 2-15, 3-1, 4-6, 5-3, 5-4, 6-2, 6-7, 6-14, 7-5, 7-6, 7-12, 8-4, 9-10, 9-15
Eagle Farm 1-1, 6-7
Kembla 5-4
Rosehill 1-1, 2-2, 4-2, 5-8, 6-6, 6-8, 8-6
Toowoomba 2-2

Today: Looks like a terrific day to have a go, as long as you pick the right races. I'm pretty keen on a few from around the country today starting at Rosehill with 4-2 Kelly from the Gerald Ryan yard. He won both his starts as a 2YO before going a tad wrong and missing the good races in the Autumn. He showed he was back in fine fettle with an eye-catching trial win. 6-8 Cheeky Choice won well first up and has everything made to order for a repeat performance in her race. The two selections at Eagle Farm come from well-performing systems so I expect them to go close. The same goes for the selections over in Perth and the one at Toowoomba. I'll be backing them all and expect to show a profit. Good luck with your selections (as long as they're not against mine!).

Full Caulfield analysis as follows:

Race 1: Kaphero is back in grade on his last two runs the latest of which was 2 weeks ago on a slow track that was won by The One at any old price. The form out of that meeting will be a bit how's your father, I reckon, so I'm prepared to overlook the fact that he led and ran 7th and suggest that he'll just lead and win. The Hayes stable has three in and they could all run well, as could River Fairy. Selections: 1-Kaphero, 6-Enemy Of Average, 8-River Fairy

Race 2: There's no natural speed in this race, which leads me to think that there'll only be a moderate tempo that will make it hard for horses coming from the back of the field. Race favourite, Eskaw, has drawn well and Greg Childs should have her in the right position just behind the leaders. Getting a run through at the top of the straight might be his only problem, as there'll be quite a few making runs out wide. Assertive Guest has drawn gate 12, which continues her recent run of bad luck in four runs this preparation in which she's drawn 12, 10, 11 & 12. She comes back from 1700m to 1400m off a 21 day break, which is more suitable, as she's got a good record of 3/4 at the trip. Rulan Ruby is back in trip also and is coming out of the Moonee Valley meeting last Saturday. I'll be interested to see how she goes, as a number of records fell that day, indicating a hard track, and horses tend to take a few weeks to get over running in those conditions, as they tend to jar up a bit. Her form is good for this race. Speedy Rossa has drawn out a bit and I reckon that apprentice jockey, Andrew Mallyon, will press forward and take advantage of her light weight. Pin Up is in the race very well, also. A very tough race. Selections: 15-Eskaw, 3-Assertive Guest, 7-Pin Up

Race 3: You'd think that Live In Vain would go to the front from his gate 11, as he's a mad leader. This is the easiest race he's been in for over a year and that's reflected in his 59.5kg impost. Squillani always goes well first up though he's weighted up to his best, also. Tesbury Jack was very good last time behind Shadoways and he looks to have a top chance. Dr Nipandtuck ran well enough on that tricky day at Flemington two weeks ago and he'll get the perfect run from his good draw. Selections: 11-Tesbury Jack, 8-Dr Nipandtuck, 1-Live In Vain

Race 4: Well, with even luck, Sharkbite should be winning this race. He was off the bit at the 400m mark last time and finished well to get 3rd in the race won by The One. The step up to 1400m looks ideal and I think he'll start around $2.40-$2.60. The win by The One at big odds was no fluke last time. His first up run included some good sectional times and he'll have a perfect run in the race. Blue Lago hasn't had much luck at his last two runs and has finished close enough to be a chance here. Mr Scribble led them up last time and was run down by Danever and they must be in with a place chance, as does Snort. Selections: 7-Sharkbite, 1-The One, 6-Blue Lago

Race 5: Miss Finland wins. It's that simple. Estelle Collection won well last time and will race handy so should be able to fill a place. Juste Moment didn't have much luck last time but finished well and the step up in trip will suit though she hasn't drawn well. My Only Hope will get the right run and has good enough form to be a place chance, also. Selections: 1-Miss Finland, 4-Estelle Collection, 5-Juste Moment

Race 6: I'm not too sure that the obvious is obvious here. El Segundo has had a setback, has had 3 weeks off and steps up 400m to 1800m so you'd have to think that the morning line price of $2.30 looks particularly light. Pompeii Ruler just keeps winning but he's never actually run a decent time so I wonder if he's one of those horses that has that indomitable will to win regardless of the race circumstances or whether he's just been lucky. He's drawn perfectly and will have to have a great chance in spite of my suspicions. Sphenophyta ran a terrific race first up and will get the chance to stamp his Caulfield Cup credentials here with a good run. Casual Pass might get a soft lead and he goes very well at this track. Our Smoking Joe is known as a wet tracker but also performs very well on top of the ground. The situation around his last run has been widely publicised and I expect he'll run a good race today. Aqua Damore is a good mare who will no doubt entertain us with her antics at the barrier, a trait she's had all of her career that shouldn't put you off ever backing her. I'm going to go against the favourite here. Selections: 7-Sphenophyta, 11-Pompeii Ruler, 2-Our Smoking Joe

Race 7: Miss Andretti is coming off winning well last week and steps up in trip here. She's in such terrific form that it would be a risk to leave her out of calculations today. I do have a little query of her at 7 furlongs so I won't be taking her one out in multiples and the fact that the handicapper has been so lenient with her at the weights might confirm that view. I've spent a year potting Rewaaya, with a lot of justification, and even though she's drawn the inside gate and will only have to go around the race leader, Minson, I'm going to back against her again. Storm Alert is pretty well placed in this race and should be a chance and Niconero ran very well first up. Thin And Crispy will appreciate the handicap conditions of this race and Cargo Cult is in OK form. The topweight, Super Kid, ran 2nd in this race last year when first up so you couldn't write him off and Minson's stablemate, Volitant, will also race handy from his wide gate and might surprise. Perfectly Ready ran well first up and Caprizzi Strip is a mad leader, also, and was never going to lose last time. I wonder whether Minson's connections might not try a change of tactics and let that horse lead with Volitant putting the pressure on, which will give Minson the nice run behind the speed? Hmmmm...luck in running will play a big part so this is an open race. Selections: 5-Miss Andretti, 15-Thin And Crispy, 9-Caprizzi Strip

Race 8: Megadeal won well first up and certainly gets ticks in all of the boxes today. It's hard to see her not figuring in the finish. The Kiwi mare, Crepe De Chine, is, apparently, a natural leader that tends to roll away from the fence when straightening. If that's the case then Megadeal will get a saloon passage through and it'll be up to the rest of the field to run her down. La Montagna is a terrific mare that will have to come from the back of the field but she's all class, as demonstrated by the fact that she has a Stradbroke Handicap trophy in the cabinet back home. I expect a good run from Lyrical Bid. She hasn't had much luck at her last two first up runs and if she can get a good position early then will be a chance. I want to see Queen Of The Hill return to form before considering her, which goes for a few of them in this race. Truly Wicked was a weight/class special last time and duly got the prize. She's nowhere as well in this time but is always a chance in these types of races. Selections: 11-Megadeal, 1-La Montagna, 8-Lyrical Bid

Race 9: The topweight, Zipping, should win here. He's at the top of the Caulfield Cup market, has been in good form and has won with more weight previously. He's had 6 runs at 1800m+ for 6 wins and I'll be taking him pretty much one out in the quaddie. Growl is certainly an up and comer who's lightly raced and just keeps improving. He should get a good run in the race from the inside draw. The speed in the race is not completely obvious though I expect Vengo will have to press forward from his draw out in the car park and probably lead. This is a race where horses that have any pretentions to Spring Carnival glory need to show their stuff so I expect to see good runs from On A Jeune and Tawqeet, as well as Marju Snip who's a pretty good Adelaide mare with a sharp sprint. Selections: 1-Zipping, 9-Growl, 11-Marju Snip

Yesterday: At the Canberra meeting Nick Olive proved again what a good trainer he is when his good horse, Neat Work, overcame a 60kg impost to win again. Olive is certainly a trainer that can be followed with confidence. Not much to comment on elsewhere except for the win of one of the non-POOMAs at Donald in the last race. Rubyraja had won her only start at Mt Gambier in comfortable fashion and dished out a repeat dose at Donald. She's not a bad horse and might be worth following as she goes through the grades assuming that her trainer doesn't get carried away and go into town too early.

POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.

SELECTIONS - 22 September 2006

POOMA selections:

There are no POOMA selections today

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Donald 4-3, 6-4, 8-9
Toowoomba 4-8

Today: Doesn't look like much of a day for having a go today. The non-POOMA selections at Donald look a bit average and come from trainers that have poor strike rates so you'd want to be getting a double figure odds to have a go. I do like the one at Toowoomba from the Ron Maund stable, 4-8 Sir Trisdan, drops in grade for the first time this preparation and looks pretty well placed here. He might be a fair price, too, which I'd assess at around $6. The racing at Canberra on the wonderful all weather Acton track though I can't see anything that really stands out though 6-1 Game Star should go pretty close given he drops a couple of grades and has drawn the inside gate.

Yesterday: Highlight of the day was the win of Bikkie Tin Blues in the Group 3 Newcastle Cup. Brad Pengelly has now had 7 rides on the horse for 7 wins, which is pretty amazing. Before moving north to his new trainer the horse raced in Victoria and was getting beaten in city open company. It appears to me that he was racing out of his grade in those races given he'd only won two races whereas in Qld he has worked through the grades and has gotten used to beating horses. Tragedy beaten of the day was Danasierra who was jog trotting when Glen Boss unwisely chose to try to go between horses where there was only a small gap, which closed and checked her badly, ruining her chances.

POOMAs: Yesterday's POOMA, Nylstroem, managed to overcome a wide trip and lob in the last couple of hops at $2.30. Jockey Craig Newitt chose to sit three deep and close to the lead rather than going back and making a long run and that decision got the horse home on a day where horses needed to be racing handy to have a chance around the tight Cranbourne track.

SELECTIONS - 21 September 2006

POOMA selections:

Cranbourne 4-5 Nylstroem

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Newcastle 1-1, 5-1, 6-2

Today: Today's POOMA is selected by multiple systems and is one of those horses that really should have won his Maiden by now but manages to find ways to keep that status intact. However today at Cranbourne, 4-5 Nylstroem gets his chance to break through after his good first up run behind Yappa and Suspects, both of whom have won or run well recently. There are a couple of first starters in the race from powerful stables that are worth keeping an eye on for multiples etc. The three non-POOMA selections at Newcastle all come from very well performing systems and I'd be a tad surprised if they didn't show a profit between them. The Newcastle Cup looks a difficult race. Carael Boy probably leads them from Attainable at only a moderate tempo. 9-Gaze On will have the right run in the race from his barrier and has probably struck a Group race he can win after a few previous attempts. I'll go for him at the value each way.

Yesterday: Well, Pantani won first up at 3000m paying a terrific $6+. I don't know what Robbie Laing's plans are for him, as he's not up to the quality races. Maybe he'll go for a jumping campaign. Stickpin appreciated the drop in class at the same time as not appreciating having to sit three deep all the way before lobbing in the last couple of hops. He's not a bad horse though on the next rung below the good ones. Miss Mooney Mooney won first up for new trainer, Lee Freedman, and was strong at the end when challenged, drawing away nicely. Don't know how far she can go, as she also seems a rung below the better ones. You Sexy Beast won his 4th race from 5 goes when winning the last race. He'll keep racing through his grades and is up to Saturday class. Two good wins at Newcastle in the form of Lucky Night and Court's In Session both of whom led most of the way while being taken on by all comers. Both 7YOs they don't have many more years in them but they certainly may well have more wins in store.

POOMAs: Like Wednesday I was very happy with the way our $11 POOMA selection, Ashkadaad, was going in the run. He ran up to nearly join the lead in the straight, weakened into 3rd, looked like he was going to run that place at a handy $2.80 before being cut out of it in the last 50m. POOMAs since the change I made in early August are now 28 from 56.

SELECTIONS - 20 September 2006

POOMA selections:

Sandown 1-3 Ashkadaad

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Belmont 2-1, 3-3, 8-5
Doomben 6-1, 6-8
Strathalbyn 1-3, 1-4

I've just been watching the Steve Irwin Memorial; a tribute to a wonderful person whose legacy will live for a long time. John Williamson's Hey True Blue struck just the right chord for the occasion. If you didn't shed a tear when you heard the news of his passing then you're not much of an Australian. If you didn't get a lump in your throat today when you saw Bindi stride purposefully out on stage and deliver a terrific speech then you have ice in your veins. Steve attracted people to him because of the huge passion for what he did that was underpinned by strong Australian values. He was the genuine article. Crikey, mate, we'll miss you.

Today: Another jumps race POOMA today in the form of Sandown 1-3 Ashkadaad who, like yesterday's POOMA, has two As in its name. This is a pretty even field and we should be getting each way odds about a horse that's ha 5 jumps starts for 2 wins, 2 2nds and a 3rd, all with today's hoop, Tom Logan, on board. Old stager, Pantani, is first up from a spell at 3000m today, which you'd think would be a test until you realise that he won the Listed Duke Of Norfolk Stakes first up last time in at 2 miles. Bondy ran 2nd in that race so maybe they can run the quinella again today. The Cameron Handicap at Newcastle only has 7 runners but they all have a chance due to the handicap conditions. I reckon that Mac's Tune has a sneaky chance in the race and he'll probably be the rank outsider in the field.

Yesterday: Not much of note at the Warrnambool meeting though Jerrymac's Maiden win was nice and he seems to have some scope to go on. Campaspe River notched up his 4th win from 5 goes at Warrnambool. Given that his record at other tracks is 2/15 you'd have to think that backing him there is a good plan. At Rockhampton, Giggling Boy again failed to show much dash even though he finished 3rd. They'll probably step him up in distance and he'll be in the market because he runs placings but I'm not too sure he has much scope for improvement at all.

POOMAs: I was very happy with the way our POOMA selection yesterday, Waaria, was travelling in the run. He was nice and handy and jumping particularly well. Before the corner he raced up to share the lead and still had a lot to offer. Just before straightening you see him change stride, as if something has gone wrong, and he dropped off quickly, failing to complete the course. I hope the horse is OK.

SELECTIONS - 19 September 2006

POOMA selections:

Warrnambool 1-1 Waaria

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Rockhampton 1-3, 3-8, 6-5

Today: Our POOMA selection today at Warrnambool, Warria, had nearly two years off and a change of stables before resuming with a last of 13 at Hamilton, last of 9 at Mortlake and 6th of 11 at Casterton with the closest beaten margin 8.7L. However, he is 2/2 over jumps, both at Warrnambool. When he won his Maiden Hurdle he beat the race favourite, Conzeal, who has gone on to win 5 or 6 jumps races and has competed in the best of company. He then won his next jumps start beating Hotter Than Hell who has also gone on to win over jumps. In both of those runs he settled back and looked little hope at the 600m mark before getting home strongly. In his second win he had to negotiate multiple equine chicances up the straight and still scored so he's got a bit of talent. In watching the replays of how he's come back I was looking to see simply whether he was getting to the line OK or not. In his first two runs he settled 9-10 lengths off them in last position and held that margin to the line meaning that he sprinted home as quickly as the rest of them. At Casterton he was beaten 11L into 6th place but that was the day that Stryja took off on Lefty Carruthers about 1000m out, opened up a gap of about 10L on the field and never looked like stopping in winning by a big space. Warria run home OK to beat half the field home. That's OK lead up form for a jumps race of this type. The danger might come from 6-Sherbourne whose form looks a tad ordinary but he's by Gold Ace and he's got a few wet track runs in there that hide his real ability. Chances for the multiples are 2-3-4-5-7-11-13. Up at Rockhampton, 1-3 Giggling Boy was a bit one paced when running 2nd as an odds on favourite in Class 4 company last time. Steps up a couple of grades but drops a handy 3kg, which will put him right in this race. 3-8 Pure Destiny comes out of a system called Extreme Ruffies. It looks to have no form at all but it's worth bearing in mind that this system has a 1/3 place strike rate at an average dividend of $5 so I'll be assessing multiples at race time. In that race the topweight, Revolva, is first up from down south for the powerful John Wigginton stable and looks a fair chance if he can handle the drop back in trip.

Yesterday: Nothing worth commenting on from yesterday's meetings. Except for Danny O'Brien's first starter, Splashing Out, I didn't see anything worth following.

POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.

SELECTIONS - 18 September 2006

POOMA selections:

There are no POOMA selections today

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

There are no non-POOMA selections either

Today: Leeton gets its once a year TAB meeting today. Most people don't know where it is, I'd imagine. It's a pretty town in the Riverina area of southern NSW and unlike most country towns that spring up around the local pub and post office and spread out in a random manner, Leeton is a planned town. Who planned it? You might, or might not, be surprised to find that it was one Walter Burley Griffin, who is also famous for planning the layout of Canberra. As you drive into Canberra from Sydney you'll drive past Lake Burley Griffin, a lake that was originally to be named in honour of Robert Menzies however he declined and preferred that the honour go to Burley Griffin. Will all that help us pick a winner there? Probably not. Once the officials shoo the goats off the track and racing begins then you'll discover that it's actually not a bad course and that horses get their chance to win regardless of draw or racing style. For interest I'll go: 1-5, 2-9, 3-3, 4-3, 5-3, 6-5, 7-2. The first at Kyneton sees a couple that have raced take on 9 first starters. I see that the tipster hasn't included either of the raced runners in his tips. I can understand that with Tatooine, as that one was outpaced in small fields, but leaving out Miss Fiality beggars belief. Maybe he knows something that I don't. At her first start, Miss Fiality, raced outside of the leader and weakened late to finish 4th of 6 in a very strong Maiden behind Fighting Fragrance (Moody), Manna Miss (Hayes) and Flashdanza (Vasil). At her next run she ran 3rd to Escadaire (O'Brien) and Red Sky Night (Freedman) in an Open 2YO race and that winner came out and won at Moonee Valley last Saturday. From the first race, Manna Miss won her Maiden at Geelong a few weeks ago so there's good form around her. Apart from that I'd say that Kyneton looks like a meeting where the winners will probably come from the less than $10 brigade.

Yesterday: As predicted, the form held up pretty well around the place yesterday and there were some good performances that are worth following from Ballarat. In race 3, Glenmorangie was a well supported favourite and really caned them in winning easily. Our POOMA there, Suspects, finally put it all together and he can go on with it as he goes through the grades. Dusit Thani won a strong Class 1 and he can win in town over a mile. Similarly, Bon Hoffa beat a very smart Class 2 field in race 7 and won in the style of a horse that is up to better. That will clearly turn out to be a very strong form race and I'd watch out for the first three or four over the line when they next race. In the last, the enigmatic Drac's Back managed to lob late. Dunno what to make of him. After that win at Ararat where he broke the Australasian mile record he's been somewhat in and out. Maybe he's got some problems though I'm not aware of them. I commented that I liked the two non-POOMA selections at Dubbo. They came out of well-performing systems but I only use selections from the exceptional systems for non-Victorian POOMAs. Both won comfortably with King Rex paying $3.80 and Virtue And Vice $1.70.

POOMAs: 2 from 3 for the POOMAs yesterday returning a profit of 20% with NSW TAB divvies (that's what all of our records are based on) and keeping our strike rate above 50% since focusing on Victorian only racing at the start of August. One of the few non-Victorian POOMA selections in that time, Brisk Crown, was at Queanbeyan and was never in doubt at $1.80. At Ballarat, Suspects also didn't give any cause for concern when flogging them in race 4 at $1.80. Both of those horses were well backed late in betting. Special Number couldn't quite bring up the hat trick for our selections when 3rd at Wangaratta.

SELECTIONS - 17 September 2006

POOMA selections:

Ballarat 4-7 Suspects
Wangaratta 7-3 Special Number
Queanbeyan 1-2 Brisk Crown

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Devenport 5-1
Dubbo 3-1, 4-1
Sunshine Coast 2-3, 2-7, 2-11
Wangaratta 4-6

Today: Ballarat 4-7 Suspects is pretty well placed in this race. He's had 4 runs for 4 2nds including a narrow loss to Stavka, who looks pretty smart, first up and then a narrow 2nd to Yappa at this course last start. He finished well and the step up to 1400m should suit. The danger looks to be 8-Zuna who ran 3rd in the race won by 1,000,000-1 shot Maximgun. The 2nd horse home in that race, Showify, cantered in yesterday so the form looks strong. The best system I have, which doesn't have many selections but has the record of 20/27 since going live almost exactly a year ago, has two selections today. Wangaratta 7-3 Special Number has the good record of 8/25, is 5/14 at the trip and 1/1 at this track. The danger looks to be 2-Elbrus who goes well fresh and is 3/5 at this track. Queanbeyan 1-2 Brisk Crown is a 3YO that has won his last couple at Narromine and Dubbo. He drops slightly in trip but sits handy, which is an advantage at the track, and should be too good. I like the two non-POOMA selections at Dubbo, as well. It looks like a good day to have a go. Unusual for a Sunday.

Yesterday: The analysis at Moonee Valley was not too bad with 3 winners on top on a tricky day. Here De Angels won at $1.20 but didn't look that impressive. I'd suggest it's time for a spell. Lad Of The Manor improved markedly on his first up run and nabbed Apache Cat on the line. I don't think the form from this race will stand up going forward against the likes of El Segundo, Racing To Win etc though Lad Of The Manor will always be competitive at Moonee Valley and his sectional times were excellent. Miss Andretti settled exactly as described in my analysis (All Bar One had to be ridden hard to lead, which surprised me, and he dropped out quickly - he was later found to have damaged two stifles and, unfortunately, will now be retired according to trainer Gillian Heinrich) and had the race won a long way from home. The last couple of races were lotteries with Astrodame winning her 3rd race from 33 starts. Up in Sydney, Coolroom Candidate won another Group race for my old trainer, Keith Dryden in Canberra. She has the fantastic record of 8 starts at 1200m for 5 wins and 3 placings and can win again in mares' company. Racing To Win was dynamic in winning his 7th race from 11 starts. He's heading to the Cox Plate apparently though I think that race is beyond him distance-wise. I thought our selections at Ararat would go OK but, in fact, they went miserably with only a couple placing.

POOMAs: Well, that was crap. Two picks; Obeys at $1.70 and Here De Angels at $1.20 and only the short priced one got home so we kept the 50% recent strike rate going but at the cost of our POT%. I'll try to do better in future!

SELECTIONS - 16 September 2006

POOMA selections:

Ararat 2-13 Obeys
Moonee Valley 2-3 Here De Angels

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Ararat 6-2, 7-2, 9-1, 10-8
Kalgoorlie 7-2
Kembla Grange 2-11
Moonee Valley 5-5, 9-9
Morphettville 2-1, 5-2, 5-7, 5-10
Rosehill 3-3, 6-5

Today: A couple of POOMA selections today with both looking to be pretty short in the market. One is at MV and commented on below. The other is at Ararat in race 2. 13-Obeys comes from the Peter Moody camp and looks very well suited in this race with the step up in trip today. She was pushed along early to get a position, fell back a bit mid-race and finished off nicely for 2nd behind Ivandrago who swept home from the tail and stole a march on her while she was looking to get clear. Ararat is generally a pretty good place to have a bet, as it's a very even, fair track where every horse gets its chance. It would surprise me a little if the non-POOMA selections at Ararat didn't return a profit. They don't quite qualify as POOMAs but should go OK. Kembla Grange 2-11 from the Gai Waterhouse yard should go pretty close in this. The horse started $2.10 favourite in a Class 1 last time and ran a close 2nd. The drop to Maiden grade should see her get home. We have the pleasure of the last three races at the Western Australian mining town of Kalgoorlie today. 7-2 Jungle Toy comes from the super system that's currently 11/17 at 63% profit. The horse has only won once in 15 goes, has drawn wide and has an apprentice that's never ridden him before at a distance he's never tried. I'd want to be getting around $5 on him.

Analysing the Moonee Valley meeting:

Race 1: This is a tricky little race to open proceedings. Pace looks like coming from Escadaire and Deferment. Ulfah is down in grade, Abdicate has good form but is yet to win, Flash Coupe goes OK, Mi Casa Su Casa overcame difficulties to win his Maiden last time, Ankh Morpork won his Maiden and then got a bit lost in Sydney, Ela Ye Mou and Sayprayerforme have been thereabouts, and Esparanza has drawn the inside and might lob a place at odds. I'll go for Ankh Morpork on top, as his poor runs have been on wet ground. Selections: 7-Ankh Morpork, 2-Ulfah, 6-Mi Casa Su Casa

Race 2: This favourite, Here De Angels, has looked terrific in winning his only two starts and he looks the goods again in this. He's a POOMA selection today. Far Horizons from the in form Matthew Ellerton camp goes well and Muzdaher ran well first up. That's probably your race. Selections: 3-Here De Angels, 4-Far Horizons, 1-Muzdaher

Race 3: The speed looks to come from Bennett's Green and Wildwood Road, though Japanese trainer Mori's horses tend to be mad leaders so Fusaichi Ole might go quick, as well. Surprise Impact looks likely to get the right run behind them and I expect he'll finish over the top of the leaders who could hold onto the placings. Selections: 5-Surprise Impact, 3-Bennett's Green, 10-Wildwood Road

Race 4: This is also a tricky race. Estelle Collection has looked good so far but I wouldn't be taking odds on about her. She'll settle close to the lead, I expect, along with Follow The Till and Industrious. Flame Of Sydney ran on well in the race behind Permaiscuous that a few of these come out of and wasn't beaten far so the step up in trip will help and Fun In Flight ran a similar race. I'll probably stay out of this race. Selections: 7-Estelle Collection, 5-Flame Of Sydney, 1-Follow The Till

Race 5: For a 7 horse race this is not easy. Apache Cat and Red Dazzler are probably going to run one-two at a moderate tempo and in the small field the others will be close enough to have their chance. Testafiable sat outside Minson in the Memsie last time and died on his run to finish near the rear. I don't think they'll want him to race so forward today. Fields Of Omagh settled near the rear in that race and made steady ground and Lad Of The Manor settled midfield and only plugged up the straight. Apache Cat sat three deep all the way and boxed on well for third, which is why he's favourite. Red Dazzler has had a month off and is always competitive. The same goes for Spinney while Spielmeister looks outclassed. I can see a heap of pressure coming into this race at the 600m mark as those sitting midfield and rearward try to get into the finish by making long runs so I think it'll be a fitness battle to the line, which leaves me with Apache Cat on top, as he's had a couple of runs from a spell. Selections: 3-Apache Cat, 2-Lad Of The Manor, 6-Spinney

Race 6: Gawd. What's this? Near enough to a field job to open the quaddie. The form comes from all over the place. At least the pace is easy to pick - Hunter Hermitage. If the track was rain affected then he'd be a big chance but given he's 1/24 on good ground he'll probably lead them up and drop off at around the 300-400m mark. I'm going to go with the topweight, Count Ricardo, to improve on his first up run at Flemington. He travelled well in the run after being slightly slowly away and spent the entire length of the long Flemington straight looking for a run before his jockey, Michael Guthrie, gave up and sat up on the horse 50m out. He looked to have a lot to offer and I reckon he'll be terrific each way odds here. His previous 9 runs had been in Group and Listed company, which includes winning the G2 Sandown Cup, so he has a touch of class about him. Lancettier had his first run for the Hayes stable since coming from Hong Kong and landed the prize in Adelaide at a handy 33/1. That Hong Kong form tends to translate well these days and if David Hayes thinks he's up to Melbourne grade then it's probably worth following his lead, especially as this is not a strong race. Gallant Guru is first up for the Freedman stable and I expect a good run from him. Flying Langfuhr has won his last couple narrowly and must be considered and Merlot Now is no slouch either, not to mention Penetentiary, who has raced consistently in NZ Group 1 company and Black Panther who had his first start from NZ for Lee Freedman last time and ran a good race behind Chiak. Selections: 1-Count Ricardo, 3-Black Panther, 4-Lancettier

Race 7: The Manikato is now a Group 1 race but there aren't many true Group 1 performers in it. I think that Dance Hero, who was probably the best 2YO we've seen in Australia for 20 years, is the only G1 winner. All Bar One has drawn wide and his jockey has no option but to press the turbo button at the start and power him to the front. He has explosive early pace and could probably land 2L in front, as I don't think any of the other speed merchants - Dance Hero, California Dane, Magnus or Magically - will want to take him on. California Dane is the track record holder here and has the blinkers back on today. He'll probably be able to get the run behind All Bar One. Race favourite, Miss Andretti, will get the chance to slot in one out and two or three back from her wide gate due to the early speed and she'll be in the right place at the right time when the pressure really ratchets up a notch in the last 400m. Sassbee will poke along in the back half doing bugger all and if Steve Arnold can get him into the firing line coming down the side then we might see a repeat of their last meeting when Miss Andretti just nutted Sassbee on the line. Shadoways is a really good horse and will come charging home but I think this is too much of a step up to put him in the selections. California Dane was unimpressive first up and I'm prepared to leave him out, as well, until I see him produce something. Selections: 12-Miss Andretti, 5-Sassbee, 3-All Bar One

Race 8: Just what we need in the quaddie. A mares' race with form that comes from all over the shop. I've always liked the Western Australian, Belle Bizarre, and thought she was up to winning in Melbourne so I'm going to take her to win at her debut in the east. She's good and tough and will get the right run from her good draw. Brockman's Lass hasn't drawn ideally but she'll go back anyway in a race where the pace will be set by Pinezero and Soleil at probably only a moderate tempo. Noel Callow will need to bring her into the race early to ensure she has a chance. He's in good form, though, and I'm sure he'll be fully aware of what he needs to do. Purde got back and ran on strongly last time. I commented that she could win again if her owners didn't rise her too much in class. This is a fair step up but she might be able to lob a place again. I want to see Perfect Promise perform this preparation before getting on her, even though she's very well in under the WFA conditions and there are a heap of other chances, as well, depending on how the race is run. Can't tip 'em all. Selections: 2-Belle Bizarre, 13-Brockman's Lass, 14-Purde

Race 9: And another field job to close out the quaddie. There doesn't seem to be any natural leaders, which would make me think that the race will be run at a fairly dawdling tempo unless some trainer wants to change tactics and go hard early. For that reason I want to be with the horses that will settle in the first half dozen, which Swish Trish from the Freedman camp will be able to do. Flying Object from Adelaide has drawn nicely and will sit 4th or 5th, and Bodacious Harmony has trialled well and will also be up there. The topweight is no slouch, Waitui Angel is always thereabouts, Miss Kooch is on the up and Paris Return has USA form so who knows what it will do? Selections: 4-Swish Trish, 9-Flying Object, 11-Bodacious Harmony

Yesterday: The first at Sale didn't turn out like I expected at all. My pick, General Ledger, started at $30, had a good run but battled to the line to finish unplaced. The next race was the first at Wagga, which saw the Matthew Dale trained first starter we spotted, Offer It Up, get well backed and win narrowly (though it never looked likely to lose in the last 200m - it just wouldn't go straight) at a handy $5. Silky Gold then went down in the last hop in race 2 at Sale. She hung in all the way up the straight and cost herself the race. Conjoin won the last at Sale although $2.50 was well under the required odds and up at Townsville the one that had been picked by one of my 50%+ strike rate systems, Impunity, managed to overcome all of the negatives I noted and win by a wart paying $5. All in all a good day, which would have been better if I could have found the first leg of the $50K quaddie at Wagga, as I had the other three legs.

POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.

SELECTIONS - 15 September 2006

POOMA selections:

There are no POOMA selections today

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Sale 9-3
Townsville 2-1, 6-3, 6-5
Wagga 5-4

Today: Townsville 6-3 Impunity comes from one of my head-scratchingly good systems that just keep going at better than 50% strike rate. Why "head-scratchingly"? Because they seem to defy the punting laws of gravity by just keeping on going at that rate. That said, Impunity has an ordinary race record of 3 from 29, has only won once from 10 goes at Townsville, once at the trip and has drawn wide. For all those negatives it's up at $2.70 on the morning line. I'd be surprised if it didn't start at around $4. It looks a genuine e/w chance to me rather than favourite material. At Sale, 1-2 Formulate will probably start at skinny odds, potentially around $2, after his good run at his first start. He led and fought on very well that day. However, if 1-3 General Ledger holds up at double figure odds then I'd be very happy to back him each way, as I expect him to sit near the lead and be tough at the end. 2-10 Silky Gold is another with sound e/w prospects. She's had four starts for two placings with the other two runs being on rain affected tracks and in good fields. With a couple of Moody runners in the race we might get $6. 9-3 Conjoin comes from the Moody camp and looks to have a fair chance. She's currently listed at $3.50, which is about the right price. At Wagga I'll be keepng an eye on the Matthew Dale trained 1-8 Offer It Up. He's taken just the one horse on the four hour journey from Canberra to Wagga, a track that he has a terrific record at. If there's any move for it then I'll be happy to follow the lead.

Yesterday: Two of the three non-POOMA selections that came out of good systems got home yesterday. Lachino annexed the first race at Belmont by 5L but paid a miserly $1.40 and Meanma won comfortably in the first leg of the quaddie at Ballina paying $2.70. The only horse that caught the eye was Pantenny in the first at Mornington. He was well backed and won very nicely. The field wasn't strong but he looked good.

POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.

SELECTIONS - 14 September 2006

POOMA selections:

There are no POOMA selections today

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Ballina 5-5
Belmont 1-1
Mornington 9-3

Today: The three non-POOMA selections all come from very effective systems. Ballina 5-5 Meanma has a terrific record at this track with 4 wins and 2 placing from 6 runs. She's very good in the wet with the only concern being 4kg apprentice, J Quinnell, doing the steering. However, he rode her to win here two starts back, she's drawn OK and with his claim gets in with a leisurely 50.5kg. If she's around the $3-$3.50 mark then that would be a good bet. Belmont 1-1 Lachino comes out of the system that's kicked off its career with 10 from 16 at 64% profit. He won at Northam before leading them up in a harder race at Belmont last time. The drop back to 1000m looks like the go and unless one of the first starters is pretty good I'd suggest he'll win. I'd assess a fair price at $1.80. Denjiro might be the quinella horse. He made up a heap of ground last time in a good performance. Mornington 9-3 Amici Forever is from the all conquering Peter Moody camp and looks to have a strong chance in this though if he's any shorter than $3 then it won't be value, as a couple of his rivals go OK including Klondike Kid, who gets home strongly from the back of the field, Declan Dreaming and Lee Freedman's lightly raced mare, Just Curious. Nothing else really takes my fancy today. Wet tracks at most venues put me off.

Yesterday: At Canterbury, Impeach did what few horses can do and go from winning a Maiden to winning one of these Class 3 races, albeit narrowly. I like the horses by his sire, Viscount, and I think this one has scope to go on to better things. People might not follow Western Australian racing but it's horses like Go The Surt, which just keep winning, that make it a good place to bet. His win in a strong field at Kalgoorlie in their $122K Listed Race takes his record to 10 from 18 and, apart from his early wins at Esperance, he's nearly always been a terrific price. At Sandown, the addition of blinkers to Siamun seems to have turned the horse around. He won very easily and can step into Saturday company. Not much caught my eye otherwise.

POOMAs: 1 from 2 yesterday. Swinging Bachelor was too good for them in race 1 and paid between $1.80 and $2.30 depending on your tote. That sort of difference makes those sports betting companies' best odds products pretty compelling. Miss Theron had a nice enough run and didn't finish off in race 4.

SELECTIONS - 13 September 2006

POOMA selections:

Sandown 1-1 Swinging Bachelor
Sandown 4-3 Miss Theron

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Canterbury 1-2, 4-6
Gawler 1-5

Today: Dead tracks are absolutely the worst surface to bet on, in my opinion, so I'll leave Gawler and Eagle Farm alone. I don't like Sydney anyway and the heavy track kills it off as a meeting. Therefore the only meeting worth looking at is Sandown. Given I focus on Victorian races that's what I should be doing anyway! 1-1 Swinging Bachelor from the Freedman stable looks a class above these. He won his first start and then finished close up to Due Sasso and Fun In Flight; either of those horses would start long odds on in this field. There's a bit of pace in this race and he should be able to park right behind them from the inside gate and run them down in the last 200m. 4-3 Miss Theron is fantastically well placed, as I reckon she's the best performed mare in this race. Playwin will start favourite, which means we could be looking at getting somewhere in the $5-$6 range. The top three in the weights, along with the rejuvenated Camille With Class, look like the only chances though maybe Otto Carate could lob a place. I might work a First4 around those five. 5-10 Living Hell got stuck on the wrong part of the track first up and her run was better than it looks on paper. In spite of drawing wide she should settle near the lead and might be pretty good e/w value. In race 6 the first three in the market, Vengo, Mr Big and Newgrange, look like the only chances. I like Vengo to get over the top of them after his good first up run behind Chiak (who won again the other day). The last leg of the quaddie looks like a field job even though De Kolta looks pretty well placed.

Yesterday: Not much to report from yesterday. It's A Dud made it 2 from 2 over the jumps and even though he won narrowly I expect he can win again. At Rockhampton, Dust Haze won in the manner of a horse that will go through the grades. At Warwick Farm, Palace General fought back to win race one. I think he'll actually be better on top of the ground.

POOMAs: 1 from 3 yesterday. It's A Dud got us off to a good start by winning narrowly and surviving a protest paying $2. Nifty Neville Wilson gave Desert Demon a perfect run, brought him into the race at the right time, the horse sprinted to join the leaders and then failed to finish the race off being comfortably beaten in the end, failing to place. Vereker Street crossed easily from his wide gate, set a steady pace, kicked 4L in front with 200m to go, immediately started to paddle and got run down by a $50 shot in an effort that says "never to be backed again". If he wins then the POOMAs would have managed 10 winning selection days in a row.

SELECTIONS - 12 September 2006

POOMA selections:

Casterton 1-1 It's A Dud
Casterton 6-1 Desert Demon
Casterton 7-8 Vereker Street

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Casterton 2-4
Rockhampton 5-10, 7-1
Warwick Farm 1-5

Today: Casterton 1-1 It's A Dud won at his hurdle debut two starts back over this course and then ran a fair race on the flat last time. He looks like he'll get the prize here today. In race 6, another POOMA, 1-Desert Demon has run two very good races since returning from a spell. First up he sat three deep for the entire trip, took the lead in the shadows of the post and was run down in the last couple of bounds by Surewood. Last start he had a good run behind the leaders, was slightly held up into the straight, got clear, accelerated nicely to the lead but was overpowered by Fullta with Waltaprince also coming from the back to nab him for 2nd. He's a lightly raced 6YO and with the Darren Weir trained runner, Hasty Snip, in the race we might get some good e/w value with our pick. 7-8 Vereker Street gets his chance to win a race at his 8th start. He was a bit unlucky last time and this field is pretty weak. At Warwick Farm, 1-5 Palace General looks like he'll continue on his winning ways but will be too short to back. Up at Rocky you'd think that 7-1 Sonovabeach would go pretty close and 4-6 Easy Dancing is first up from racing in Victoria and looks to have enough ability to go pretty close. Depending on what value there is, I'll have a go at It's A Dud in the hurdle at Casterton and follow up on Desert Demon if he's around $6.

Yesterday: Was there racing yesterday? Not of any note and I didn't even watch or listen to a race.
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.