POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])
Cranbourne 5-3 Falcrest [12,22]
Hawkesbury 8-1 Zaretti [1]
Townsville 1-3 Scorpio Star [7,15]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Hawkesbury 2-3
Townsville 1-6, 7-8
Comments: Cranbourne 5-3 Falcrest ran well at Sandown first up before a good run in F&M Cl3 company last time. Jumps in weight but is back to a F&M Cl1 here so really should be winning today. Hawkesbury 8-1 Zaretti is from the strong Gwenda Markwell stable and is in good form since returning from a spell. Should get a good run in transit and be in the finish. Anything over $3 looks good value to me. Townsville 1-3 Scorpio Star was first up at Cairns over 910m with 59kg since coming up from Sydney and was a bit outpaced when a late-closing 4th as favourite. Gets everything to suit here and is another that should get home, though at short odds.
Black Book: Hawkesbury 2-1 Derivative Receipt is on my 'to assess' list after his last run at Armidale when he overcame difficulty to come from last and win, giving 3kg to the field, in an impressive display. This is also a jump in grade but if he runs up to his last three runs then might be a chance. Townsville 2-1 Monashee Warrior was well backed in the small field, missed the start, raced around the field to lead and won by a space. The time was OK so I want to assess his talent in this against Optimism.
Thursday, May 31, 2007
Wednesday, May 30, 2007
SELECTIONS - 30 May 2007
POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])
Belmont 2-1 Centrum [23]
Belmont 3-1 Dance Across [23]
Belmont 4-1 Joey Jo Jo [9]
Sandown 3-9 Running Riot [23]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Belmont 5-1, 6-5, 7-13
Murray Bridge 1-4, 7-5
(* Updates after midday today, as I'm out and about - UPDATED *)
Comments: Sandown 3-9 Running Riot marks the debut of newly introduced System 23. She drifted from 1/1 to 9/4 on debut when a good 3rd at this course nehind Miss Meerkat. She'll be improved and should run well. Belmont 3-1 Dance Across has been a beaten favourite at her last couple of runs but gets the chance to break back into the winner's circle in this. Should get a good run from the gate and does get to the line OK but given she's got convictions I'd want e/w odds. Belmont 4-1 Joey Jo Jo has been up for a little while but continues to race consistently. She'll either lead or be outside the leader in a race where there doesn't look to be a heap of pace so she'll get her chance in the straight to win.
Black Book: Sandown 1-2 Mazzacano whupped them at Warrnambool over hurdles and then repeated the dose over the bigger fences at Pakenham. Is unbeaten in three runs over jumps and looks likely to keep that record intact here. Belmont 2-2 Chachi won one and ran 3 seconds last time in. I noticed that he didn't really know what racing is all about and that once he'd had a spell he'd be even better. I get the chance to find out if I'm right today. Belmont 5-1 Campo Di Grano is only in the BB with a comment of "goes fast and can only just get 1000m" so he gets that today and has an unbeaten 2/2 first up record.
Belmont 2-1 Centrum [23]
Belmont 3-1 Dance Across [23]
Belmont 4-1 Joey Jo Jo [9]
Sandown 3-9 Running Riot [23]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Belmont 5-1, 6-5, 7-13
Murray Bridge 1-4, 7-5
(* Updates after midday today, as I'm out and about - UPDATED *)
Comments: Sandown 3-9 Running Riot marks the debut of newly introduced System 23. She drifted from 1/1 to 9/4 on debut when a good 3rd at this course nehind Miss Meerkat. She'll be improved and should run well. Belmont 3-1 Dance Across has been a beaten favourite at her last couple of runs but gets the chance to break back into the winner's circle in this. Should get a good run from the gate and does get to the line OK but given she's got convictions I'd want e/w odds. Belmont 4-1 Joey Jo Jo has been up for a little while but continues to race consistently. She'll either lead or be outside the leader in a race where there doesn't look to be a heap of pace so she'll get her chance in the straight to win.
Black Book: Sandown 1-2 Mazzacano whupped them at Warrnambool over hurdles and then repeated the dose over the bigger fences at Pakenham. Is unbeaten in three runs over jumps and looks likely to keep that record intact here. Belmont 2-2 Chachi won one and ran 3 seconds last time in. I noticed that he didn't really know what racing is all about and that once he'd had a spell he'd be even better. I get the chance to find out if I'm right today. Belmont 5-1 Campo Di Grano is only in the BB with a comment of "goes fast and can only just get 1000m" so he gets that today and has an unbeaten 2/2 first up record.
Tuesday, May 29, 2007
SELECTIONS - 29 May 2007
POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
...or non-POOMAs.
Comments: Canberra is cold and getting colder.
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
...or non-POOMAs.
Comments: Canberra is cold and getting colder.
Monday, May 28, 2007
SELECTIONS - 28 May 2007
POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])
Wagga 5-2 Condoleza Lady [1]
Wodonga 9-2 Slip Slop Slack [24]
Wodonga 10-2 Desert Dynamo [24]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Wagga 5-4
Wodonga 5-4
Tamworth 8-2
Comments: Wodonga 9-2 Slip Slop Slack is the first pick for one of the newly introduced systems. May it have strength. It looks in reasonable form for this race. Wodonga 10-2 Desert Dynamo ran a great race from gate 13 of 13 last time when sitting outside the leader. Has to overcome a wide gate again but will press forward early so that shouldn't be an issue. Wagga 5-2 Condoleza Lady won at Leeton last time, which is not form you'd usually want to follow but she's been in OK form otherwise and this is an even field so must be a fair chance.
Wagga 5-2 Condoleza Lady [1]
Wodonga 9-2 Slip Slop Slack [24]
Wodonga 10-2 Desert Dynamo [24]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Wagga 5-4
Wodonga 5-4
Tamworth 8-2
Comments: Wodonga 9-2 Slip Slop Slack is the first pick for one of the newly introduced systems. May it have strength. It looks in reasonable form for this race. Wodonga 10-2 Desert Dynamo ran a great race from gate 13 of 13 last time when sitting outside the leader. Has to overcome a wide gate again but will press forward early so that shouldn't be an issue. Wagga 5-2 Condoleza Lady won at Leeton last time, which is not form you'd usually want to follow but she's been in OK form otherwise and this is an even field so must be a fair chance.
EARLY MID-YEAR SYSTEM REVIEW
I have mentioned previously that I intended to do a mid-year review of the systems in use, drop the crap ones and replace them with others that seem to be going OK. Whereas that should take place on July 1, being mid-year, there doesn't seem much point continuing with those systems that are under performing. Therefore, it's time for a middish-year review.
One of the issues that's really impacted overall performance, and something I didn't originally think about which I should have, is that the different selection frequencies of the systems is a major factor in our current lower than expected results. In developing the new set of 20 systems I'll try to balance that out a bit so a high frequency, low performing system can't do as much damage.
Review of systems:
System 1: 9/27 at a slight loss is OK and it will stay with us. It's long term live performance is 47/129 (36%) at 41% profit and it's current performance is nothing that hasn't been seen before.
System 2: It's only had 4 selections for 1 win so it's too early to tell. It can stay.
System 3: Only had 11 selections and its 36%/0% performance is below the long term 46%/26% live result so it can stay.
System 4: 0/6 means it can take a break. That's well outside expectation.
System 5: 1 selection for a miss so it can stay.
System 6: Only 5 selections so we'll stick with it.
System 7: Currently 7/19 at a 37% loss but has a terrific long term record and I expect a turn around so it stays.
System 8: Definitely can't complain about this one's performance. It's higher than expectation but not by too far.
System 9: Also going OK and I expect POT to improve a bit.
System 10: Been a very solid contributor returning a 36% profit from its 49 selections. It obviously stays.
System 11: Nothing to complain about with this one. It's been a good long term performer.
System 12: 12/19 and a 26% profit might look like it's overperforming but it's actually right on expectation.
System 13: Ahhhhh. Disaster. What has happened here? I'd like to think that it can recover but it's so far below expectation or history that it seems unlikely so it can take a rest.
System 14: Another that's really put a dent in things. The trick with this system is that it's got a really good 41% strike rate but the short price of the winners has seen it deliver a 30% loss. I think that it can take a rest, too.
System 15: 1/9 is waaay less than expected but it's only 16% behind and can make that up with one winner so we'll stick with it.
System 16: POT is a bit low but that should improve.
System 17: I really thought that this one would be better that what it's delivered so it can go.
System 18: Looking at its results you'd think that this one, aimed at 2YOs, would go also but it's been through runs like this before. A touch and go decision. It can go.
System 19: This is actually my favourite system out of all of them but has only hit 1/7 with a $1.60 winner. It has a terrific 45%/90% result from more than two years of selections so I expect it to hit back.
System 20: Going well, a long way above expectation, so I expect it to cop a short losing run to bring it back to the mark but that's OK.
Summary:
Systems 4, 13, 14, 17 and 18 will be replaced by five different systems 21, 22, 23, 24 & 25 from May 28, 2007. The overall results will include the systems that have been replaced.
One of the issues that's really impacted overall performance, and something I didn't originally think about which I should have, is that the different selection frequencies of the systems is a major factor in our current lower than expected results. In developing the new set of 20 systems I'll try to balance that out a bit so a high frequency, low performing system can't do as much damage.
Review of systems:
System 1: 9/27 at a slight loss is OK and it will stay with us. It's long term live performance is 47/129 (36%) at 41% profit and it's current performance is nothing that hasn't been seen before.
System 2: It's only had 4 selections for 1 win so it's too early to tell. It can stay.
System 3: Only had 11 selections and its 36%/0% performance is below the long term 46%/26% live result so it can stay.
System 4: 0/6 means it can take a break. That's well outside expectation.
System 5: 1 selection for a miss so it can stay.
System 6: Only 5 selections so we'll stick with it.
System 7: Currently 7/19 at a 37% loss but has a terrific long term record and I expect a turn around so it stays.
System 8: Definitely can't complain about this one's performance. It's higher than expectation but not by too far.
System 9: Also going OK and I expect POT to improve a bit.
System 10: Been a very solid contributor returning a 36% profit from its 49 selections. It obviously stays.
System 11: Nothing to complain about with this one. It's been a good long term performer.
System 12: 12/19 and a 26% profit might look like it's overperforming but it's actually right on expectation.
System 13: Ahhhhh. Disaster. What has happened here? I'd like to think that it can recover but it's so far below expectation or history that it seems unlikely so it can take a rest.
System 14: Another that's really put a dent in things. The trick with this system is that it's got a really good 41% strike rate but the short price of the winners has seen it deliver a 30% loss. I think that it can take a rest, too.
System 15: 1/9 is waaay less than expected but it's only 16% behind and can make that up with one winner so we'll stick with it.
System 16: POT is a bit low but that should improve.
System 17: I really thought that this one would be better that what it's delivered so it can go.
System 18: Looking at its results you'd think that this one, aimed at 2YOs, would go also but it's been through runs like this before. A touch and go decision. It can go.
System 19: This is actually my favourite system out of all of them but has only hit 1/7 with a $1.60 winner. It has a terrific 45%/90% result from more than two years of selections so I expect it to hit back.
System 20: Going well, a long way above expectation, so I expect it to cop a short losing run to bring it back to the mark but that's OK.
Summary:
Systems 4, 13, 14, 17 and 18 will be replaced by five different systems 21, 22, 23, 24 & 25 from May 28, 2007. The overall results will include the systems that have been replaced.
Sunday, May 27, 2007
SELECTIONS - 27 May 2007
POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])
Nowra 2-1 Giro [12]
Werribee 8-2 Richracer [13]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Mildura 3-5, 7-1, 10-3
Nowra 5-14
Sunshine Coast 2-2, 8-8
Werribee 9-6
Comments: Nowra 2-1 Giro ran OK at Canterbury before flogging them at Dubbo and going for a spell. Has pace and should just about lead all the way. Werribee 8-2 Richracer steps up to 2000m after a win and second at 1700m. This is a pretty even race so I'd want $4+ to have a go.
Nowra 2-1 Giro [12]
Werribee 8-2 Richracer [13]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Mildura 3-5, 7-1, 10-3
Nowra 5-14
Sunshine Coast 2-2, 8-8
Werribee 9-6
Comments: Nowra 2-1 Giro ran OK at Canterbury before flogging them at Dubbo and going for a spell. Has pace and should just about lead all the way. Werribee 8-2 Richracer steps up to 2000m after a win and second at 1700m. This is a pretty even race so I'd want $4+ to have a go.
Saturday, May 26, 2007
SELECTIONS - 26 May 2007
POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])
Belmont 2-1 Kooyong Road [18]
Belmont 7-12 Nova Sofala [1]
Newcastle 7-4 Grondie [18]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Belmont 1-2, 4-5
Doomben 2-14, 7-1, 7-2, 7-3, 7-6, 7-10
Gold Coast 1-7, 7-2
Moonee Valley 1-1, 1-3, 3-11
Newcastle 1-8, 3-2, 4-5 ,6-7
Randwick 1-3
Sale 1-5
Toowoomba 4-2
(* Belmont selections UPDATED *)
Comments: Belmont 7-12 Nova Sofala has been in consistent form in weaker races and has everything to suit here with a good weight and inside draw. He should be right behind the speed and look a chance late. Newcastle 7-4 Grondie is race fit and has 3 placings from 3 goes but it's likely that at least one of these first starters has ability so I'll want $8+.
Black Book: Yesterday's pick, Zip Zip Array, zipped home into 4th spot from way back. People may have noticed the run so we might not get good odds about him next time out. MV 1-5 Hasta Manana has killed them at his two starts. They've been weak fields and this is harder but he looks very promising. MV 5-10 Forbes was scratched from a weaker race late in the week to run here. It wasn't much of a ride last time, which saw him narrowly beaten and he must be a chance in this. MV 7-12 Lucky Secret went into the BB after his first run so we've picked him up at long odds on in his two subsequent victories. Has drawn 15/15 at the MV 1000m start but has enough pace to be in the leading couple early. My BB comment after his first run was "Looks a future star" so we'll see today whether he continues on that path. Randwick 3-10 Bimutualconsent is on her last chance to score for us, as she's been quite frustrating. She has everything made to order here so needs to run well to stay in the BB. Randwick 6-1 Hairy has been terrific for us and has got the job done nicely at OK odds since returning from a spell. She isn't very well placed in this race with the weight and the fact that she had a very soft run last time before toughing it out to the line. She's not lacking in courage so we should get a good run for our money today.
Belmont 2-1 Kooyong Road [18]
Belmont 7-12 Nova Sofala [1]
Newcastle 7-4 Grondie [18]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Belmont 1-2, 4-5
Doomben 2-14, 7-1, 7-2, 7-3, 7-6, 7-10
Gold Coast 1-7, 7-2
Moonee Valley 1-1, 1-3, 3-11
Newcastle 1-8, 3-2, 4-5 ,6-7
Randwick 1-3
Sale 1-5
Toowoomba 4-2
(* Belmont selections UPDATED *)
Comments: Belmont 7-12 Nova Sofala has been in consistent form in weaker races and has everything to suit here with a good weight and inside draw. He should be right behind the speed and look a chance late. Newcastle 7-4 Grondie is race fit and has 3 placings from 3 goes but it's likely that at least one of these first starters has ability so I'll want $8+.
Black Book: Yesterday's pick, Zip Zip Array, zipped home into 4th spot from way back. People may have noticed the run so we might not get good odds about him next time out. MV 1-5 Hasta Manana has killed them at his two starts. They've been weak fields and this is harder but he looks very promising. MV 5-10 Forbes was scratched from a weaker race late in the week to run here. It wasn't much of a ride last time, which saw him narrowly beaten and he must be a chance in this. MV 7-12 Lucky Secret went into the BB after his first run so we've picked him up at long odds on in his two subsequent victories. Has drawn 15/15 at the MV 1000m start but has enough pace to be in the leading couple early. My BB comment after his first run was "Looks a future star" so we'll see today whether he continues on that path. Randwick 3-10 Bimutualconsent is on her last chance to score for us, as she's been quite frustrating. She has everything made to order here so needs to run well to stay in the BB. Randwick 6-1 Hairy has been terrific for us and has got the job done nicely at OK odds since returning from a spell. She isn't very well placed in this race with the weight and the fact that she had a very soft run last time before toughing it out to the line. She's not lacking in courage so we should get a good run for our money today.
Friday, May 25, 2007
SELECTIONS - 25 May 2007
POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])
Mildura 1-6 Sayetta [18]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Canberra 8-3
Comments: Mildura 1-6 Sayetta won nicely at her first start at Ballarat and then ran a nice race at Sandown before being gapped at MV. Drops back 400m off a 20 day break, which seems to be a bit of an ask but she does have pace so should go OK.
Black Book: I forgot to mention earlier today that Casino 8-3 Zip Zip Array is running around. He was outgraded last time in town but still worked home OK from last on the turn to finish 10th. This class is more his go so I'll assess his BB status after this run. I reckon there's another win in him at good odds before his career is over.
Mildura 1-6 Sayetta [18]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Canberra 8-3
Comments: Mildura 1-6 Sayetta won nicely at her first start at Ballarat and then ran a nice race at Sandown before being gapped at MV. Drops back 400m off a 20 day break, which seems to be a bit of an ask but she does have pace so should go OK.
Black Book: I forgot to mention earlier today that Casino 8-3 Zip Zip Array is running around. He was outgraded last time in town but still worked home OK from last on the turn to finish 10th. This class is more his go so I'll assess his BB status after this run. I reckon there's another win in him at good odds before his career is over.
Thursday, May 24, 2007
SELECTIONS - 24 May 2007
POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])
Gosford 8-2 Bazzooka [13]
Northam 4-5 Kim Seal [7]
Northam 7-12 Water Into Wine [10]
Townsville 3-1 Mameluke [4,15]
Townsville 4-2 Mister Stevens [11,12,13,14]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Northam 7-2
Townsville 3-10
Comments: Gosford 8-2 Bazzooka has only won 1/12 but has been in good recent form, has won at the track and looks suited by the step up in trip in this grade. There doesn't look to be a stack of pace in the race so he should be able to lob along somewhere near the lead and put himself ino the finish on straightening. Northam 4-5 Kim Seal is in the easiest race it's contested but his 1 place from 9 start record is less than inspiring. His last two have been OK and should be thereabouts at the business end. Northam 7-12 Water Into Wine steps up from a Class 3 to Class 5 race but looks pretty well placed here. Ignore his first up run, as he drew 15/15 in a stronger race at Ascot. He looks a nice chance at e/w odds. Townsville 3-1 Mameluke was a beaten POOMA last time but it was a run that really caught the eye. Completely outpaced early he was last and off the back of the pack before coming wide on the corner and rocketing into 3rd spot. The step up in trip is right up his alley and he looks our best chance today even if he does come out of a couple of currently underperforming systems. Townsville 4-2 Mister Stevens flogged them first up at Mt Garnet in fast time. He's obviously had a few issues and Roy Chillemi has been patient with him. This race is probably not much harder than last time and David Crossland has chosen him over the stablemate, Digos, which he's also been riding so you'd think he'd run well. Given he's been selected by four systems it's going to blow another hole in our system results if he goes down.
Gosford 8-2 Bazzooka [13]
Northam 4-5 Kim Seal [7]
Northam 7-12 Water Into Wine [10]
Townsville 3-1 Mameluke [4,15]
Townsville 4-2 Mister Stevens [11,12,13,14]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Northam 7-2
Townsville 3-10
Comments: Gosford 8-2 Bazzooka has only won 1/12 but has been in good recent form, has won at the track and looks suited by the step up in trip in this grade. There doesn't look to be a stack of pace in the race so he should be able to lob along somewhere near the lead and put himself ino the finish on straightening. Northam 4-5 Kim Seal is in the easiest race it's contested but his 1 place from 9 start record is less than inspiring. His last two have been OK and should be thereabouts at the business end. Northam 7-12 Water Into Wine steps up from a Class 3 to Class 5 race but looks pretty well placed here. Ignore his first up run, as he drew 15/15 in a stronger race at Ascot. He looks a nice chance at e/w odds. Townsville 3-1 Mameluke was a beaten POOMA last time but it was a run that really caught the eye. Completely outpaced early he was last and off the back of the pack before coming wide on the corner and rocketing into 3rd spot. The step up in trip is right up his alley and he looks our best chance today even if he does come out of a couple of currently underperforming systems. Townsville 4-2 Mister Stevens flogged them first up at Mt Garnet in fast time. He's obviously had a few issues and Roy Chillemi has been patient with him. This race is probably not much harder than last time and David Crossland has chosen him over the stablemate, Digos, which he's also been riding so you'd think he'd run well. Given he's been selected by four systems it's going to blow another hole in our system results if he goes down.
Wednesday, May 23, 2007
SELECTIONS - 23 May 2007
POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])
Canterbury 2-2 White Room [18]
Canterbury 3-3 Maslin's Beach [1]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Ballarat 1-3, 1-5, 1-6, 2-1, 2-2
Belmont 2-2, 2-4
Strathalbyn 7-5
(* Updates at Belmont later on *)
Comments: Canterbury 2-2 White Room ran well last time when racing up on the pace. She rises in weight but that is less of an issue for 2YOs than older horses so should go close though she'll be short with Beadman on board. Canterbury 3-3 Maslin's Beach has been getting home well in her races and did so again to score last time over 1400m. The step up in trip again looks suitable so she must be a good chance again.
Canterbury 2-2 White Room [18]
Canterbury 3-3 Maslin's Beach [1]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Ballarat 1-3, 1-5, 1-6, 2-1, 2-2
Belmont 2-2, 2-4
Strathalbyn 7-5
(* Updates at Belmont later on *)
Comments: Canterbury 2-2 White Room ran well last time when racing up on the pace. She rises in weight but that is less of an issue for 2YOs than older horses so should go close though she'll be short with Beadman on board. Canterbury 3-3 Maslin's Beach has been getting home well in her races and did so again to score last time over 1400m. The step up in trip again looks suitable so she must be a good chance again.
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
SELECTIONS - 22 May 2007
POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Mackay 1-4
Taree 4-3
Comments: 1/4 yesterday returning $8.20 so that was OK. Looks like a really good day to give it a miss.
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Mackay 1-4
Taree 4-3
Comments: 1/4 yesterday returning $8.20 so that was OK. Looks like a really good day to give it a miss.
Monday, May 21, 2007
SELECTIONS - 21 May 2007
POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])
Muswellbrook 6-3 Dextatic [1]
Muswellbrook 4-2 Our Mate Tom [18]
Narromine 4-7 Shaker [10]
Narromine 7-2 Little Holly [1]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Benalla 5-6
Narromine 9-13
Comments: The ruffies system that picked the $32 winner at Queanbeyan yesterday has now had 200 live selections since going live in March 2004 for 25 winners returning $301 so that's not bad. It's a bit hard to use it as a POOMA system with a 12.5% strike rate but they're always worth throwing in multiples. A different ruffies system (I have five of them) then popped up with a $14 winner at Port Augusta so that makes for a handy day. I don't know why the jockey on our POOMA selection yesterday, Frisco's Vision, didn't come the the centre of the track, as he would have won for sure if he did. Muswellbrook 6-3 Dextatic won his Maiden very easily last time out at Cessnock and the step up in trip should suit. There are horses in this that have form in stronger events so I'd want to get around $6 to have a go at this horse, which must be some sort of chance. Muswellbrook 4-2 Our Mate Tom ran a nice race at Newcastle on debut when 2nd in a Maiden event. Has a 4kg apprentice on today and I'm not too sure if that's a good thing or not but he must be a very strong chance. Narromine 4-7 Shaker won her Maiden at this track on the slow going last time and is another that must be given a chance at each way odds. Narromine 7-2 Little Holly has been in terrific form lately and has developed a bit of a fan club due to the fact that she gets so far back and finishes so quickly in her races. Last time out she was dead last of 12 on the corner and miles back but went woosh late to win easily. Steps up a lot in grade here and has the heavy track to contend with but will acquit herself well again.
Muswellbrook 6-3 Dextatic [1]
Muswellbrook 4-2 Our Mate Tom [18]
Narromine 4-7 Shaker [10]
Narromine 7-2 Little Holly [1]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Benalla 5-6
Narromine 9-13
Comments: The ruffies system that picked the $32 winner at Queanbeyan yesterday has now had 200 live selections since going live in March 2004 for 25 winners returning $301 so that's not bad. It's a bit hard to use it as a POOMA system with a 12.5% strike rate but they're always worth throwing in multiples. A different ruffies system (I have five of them) then popped up with a $14 winner at Port Augusta so that makes for a handy day. I don't know why the jockey on our POOMA selection yesterday, Frisco's Vision, didn't come the the centre of the track, as he would have won for sure if he did. Muswellbrook 6-3 Dextatic won his Maiden very easily last time out at Cessnock and the step up in trip should suit. There are horses in this that have form in stronger events so I'd want to get around $6 to have a go at this horse, which must be some sort of chance. Muswellbrook 4-2 Our Mate Tom ran a nice race at Newcastle on debut when 2nd in a Maiden event. Has a 4kg apprentice on today and I'm not too sure if that's a good thing or not but he must be a very strong chance. Narromine 4-7 Shaker won her Maiden at this track on the slow going last time and is another that must be given a chance at each way odds. Narromine 7-2 Little Holly has been in terrific form lately and has developed a bit of a fan club due to the fact that she gets so far back and finishes so quickly in her races. Last time out she was dead last of 12 on the corner and miles back but went woosh late to win easily. Steps up a lot in grade here and has the heavy track to contend with but will acquit herself well again.
Sunday, May 20, 2007
SELECTIONS - 20 May 2007
POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])
Coffs Harbour 6-5 Frisco's Vision [13]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Coffs Harbour 3-14
Kalgoorlie 1-2
Mornington 4-2, 4-4
Port Augusta 4-6
Queanbeyan 1-8, 2-11
Sunshine Coast 5-3
Comments: Coffs Harbour 6-5 Frisco's Vision has a very consistent record and goes well on wet tracks. He ran very well in a stronger race last time and his jockey has had 6 rides for 4 wins and 2 placings so he must be a really good chance today.
Coffs Harbour 6-5 Frisco's Vision [13]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Coffs Harbour 3-14
Kalgoorlie 1-2
Mornington 4-2, 4-4
Port Augusta 4-6
Queanbeyan 1-8, 2-11
Sunshine Coast 5-3
Comments: Coffs Harbour 6-5 Frisco's Vision has a very consistent record and goes well on wet tracks. He ran very well in a stronger race last time and his jockey has had 6 rides for 4 wins and 2 placings so he must be a really good chance today.
Saturday, May 19, 2007
SELECTIONS - 19 May 2007
POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Belmont 2-12
Doomben 2-10, 8-8
Gold Coast 8-3, 8-10, 9-4
Kembla 6-2, 6-7
Rosehill 4-11, 4-12
Sandown 4-12, 8-3, 8-10
(* Updates at Belmont later on - UPDATED *)
Comments: Nothing really worth backing today.
Black Book: Belmont 3-4 Vigano went into the BB at its first run and then immediately delivered at nice odds. Looks a bit outgraded here so would have to have improved. Doomben 1-5 Zip Zip Array carried 59kg first up at Armidale, ran off on the corner getting back to a distant last before finishing quicker than anything to wind up in midfield. The jump up in grade here is not in his favour but it's worth noting that he was entered for a race at Coffs Harbour on Monday and connections have chosen to run in the city today. Sandown 4-12 Transferral seriously flogged them at his first start over hurdles two runs back. This is a fair jump in grade so I'll want to assess his jumps ability after this run.
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Belmont 2-12
Doomben 2-10, 8-8
Gold Coast 8-3, 8-10, 9-4
Kembla 6-2, 6-7
Rosehill 4-11, 4-12
Sandown 4-12, 8-3, 8-10
(* Updates at Belmont later on - UPDATED *)
Comments: Nothing really worth backing today.
Black Book: Belmont 3-4 Vigano went into the BB at its first run and then immediately delivered at nice odds. Looks a bit outgraded here so would have to have improved. Doomben 1-5 Zip Zip Array carried 59kg first up at Armidale, ran off on the corner getting back to a distant last before finishing quicker than anything to wind up in midfield. The jump up in grade here is not in his favour but it's worth noting that he was entered for a race at Coffs Harbour on Monday and connections have chosen to run in the city today. Sandown 4-12 Transferral seriously flogged them at his first start over hurdles two runs back. This is a fair jump in grade so I'll want to assess his jumps ability after this run.
Friday, May 18, 2007
SELECTIONS - 18 May 2007
POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])
Mt Gambier 4-4 Over Dieu [10]
Mt Gambier 5-6 Zenal [1]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Nil
Comments: Don't you love it when a horse you think is a really good chance and nice odds comes out of the barrier, buckjumps badly and is out of the race before going 100m as Danzamonkey did yesterday? Our next pick then ran off on the home turn so clearly we've offended the punting gods at some point. Mt Gambier 4-4 Over Dieu returns from a spell here and would be a good chance if the track wasn't so wet. He's had two goes on slow and heavy and been well beaten both times. He's by Dieu D'Or whose progeny are particularly poor in the wet. Mt Gambier 5-6 Zenal returned from a spell and won nicely at Penola. It's impossible to line the form up but she must be some sort of chance.
Mt Gambier 4-4 Over Dieu [10]
Mt Gambier 5-6 Zenal [1]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Nil
Comments: Don't you love it when a horse you think is a really good chance and nice odds comes out of the barrier, buckjumps badly and is out of the race before going 100m as Danzamonkey did yesterday? Our next pick then ran off on the home turn so clearly we've offended the punting gods at some point. Mt Gambier 4-4 Over Dieu returns from a spell here and would be a good chance if the track wasn't so wet. He's had two goes on slow and heavy and been well beaten both times. He's by Dieu D'Or whose progeny are particularly poor in the wet. Mt Gambier 5-6 Zenal returned from a spell and won nicely at Penola. It's impossible to line the form up but she must be some sort of chance.
Thursday, May 17, 2007
SELECTIONS - 17 May 2007
POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])
Northam 6-3 Soleil Fille [17]
Northam 8-3 Shashti [14]
Rockhampton 7-14 Danzamonkey [4,15]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Hawkesbury 6-2
Northam 8-3
Rockhampton 7-14
(* Northam updates later on - UPDATED with POOMAs *)
Comments: Rockhampton 7-14 Danzamonkey has obviously improved since his previous preparations, which yielded only one win from eight runs, to score at his three starts this time in. He's drawn off the track at each run since resuming, has worked up to the lead and done the job nicely albeit narrowly last time under the big weight. He'll appreciate the drop in weight here today but is up a lot in class and has gate 14 to overcome. Should be nice odds.
Black Book: Bionic Rock and Guild were taken out of the BB after their very ordinary performances yesterday as odds on favourites. Scenic Silver showed how tough he was when getting up to win in a muddling run race. Ballarat 4-6 Forbes couldn't get a run until near the 200m at Echuca last time but when he did get to the outside he went woosh and won by nearly 5L eased down. Looks like another of those good 'Rogerson' Melbourne horses.
Northam 6-3 Soleil Fille [17]
Northam 8-3 Shashti [14]
Rockhampton 7-14 Danzamonkey [4,15]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Hawkesbury 6-2
Northam 8-3
Rockhampton 7-14
(* Northam updates later on - UPDATED with POOMAs *)
Comments: Rockhampton 7-14 Danzamonkey has obviously improved since his previous preparations, which yielded only one win from eight runs, to score at his three starts this time in. He's drawn off the track at each run since resuming, has worked up to the lead and done the job nicely albeit narrowly last time under the big weight. He'll appreciate the drop in weight here today but is up a lot in class and has gate 14 to overcome. Should be nice odds.
Black Book: Bionic Rock and Guild were taken out of the BB after their very ordinary performances yesterday as odds on favourites. Scenic Silver showed how tough he was when getting up to win in a muddling run race. Ballarat 4-6 Forbes couldn't get a run until near the 200m at Echuca last time but when he did get to the outside he went woosh and won by nearly 5L eased down. Looks like another of those good 'Rogerson' Melbourne horses.
Wednesday, May 16, 2007
SELECTIONS - 16 May 2007
POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])
Belmont 4-1 Special Witness [14]
Randwick 7-1 Zacatecas [19]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Eagle Farm 3-6
(* Updates at Belmont later on - UPDATED with POOMA *)
Comments: Randwick 7-1 Zacatecas stepped up to a mile and thrashed them last time at Hawkesbury as an odds on favourite. He's drawn well and should go pretty close.
Black Book: Eagle Farm 2-3 Bionic Rock was well backed at his only start at Ipswich, sat 3-4 deep all of the way, never settled down but still fought on strongly to the line to be beaten less than half a length in third spot. It was an impressive run and if he's learned to settle in the break then he'll be a good chance today. Eagle Farm 7-1 Scenic Silver is a pretty good horse but was outgraded last time behind Gold Edition when beaten 5.7L. The filly won that race easily so he wasn't too far from the placegetters and he beat home half the field so he should be winning today. Sandown 3-5 Guild went into the BB after flogging them Cranbourne before stepping up a lot in grade at Caulfield, coming out of gate 13 of 13 to lead until near home in a good performance. She's back in grade here and I'm confident that she'll win.
Belmont 4-1 Special Witness [14]
Randwick 7-1 Zacatecas [19]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Eagle Farm 3-6
(* Updates at Belmont later on - UPDATED with POOMA *)
Comments: Randwick 7-1 Zacatecas stepped up to a mile and thrashed them last time at Hawkesbury as an odds on favourite. He's drawn well and should go pretty close.
Black Book: Eagle Farm 2-3 Bionic Rock was well backed at his only start at Ipswich, sat 3-4 deep all of the way, never settled down but still fought on strongly to the line to be beaten less than half a length in third spot. It was an impressive run and if he's learned to settle in the break then he'll be a good chance today. Eagle Farm 7-1 Scenic Silver is a pretty good horse but was outgraded last time behind Gold Edition when beaten 5.7L. The filly won that race easily so he wasn't too far from the placegetters and he beat home half the field so he should be winning today. Sandown 3-5 Guild went into the BB after flogging them Cranbourne before stepping up a lot in grade at Caulfield, coming out of gate 13 of 13 to lead until near home in a good performance. She's back in grade here and I'm confident that she'll win.
Tuesday, May 15, 2007
SELECTIONS - 15 May 2007
POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])
Townsville 1-12 Doc's Lament [10]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Townsville 7-3, 9-7
Comments: The POOMA won handily yesterday at $3.50 and the two black book jumpers thrashed their opponents again as odds on favourites. Townsville 1-12 Doc's Lament is trying to break his duck at his 15th run in this and must be some sort of chance, as he's never too far away. He'll get an OK run from gate 2 but you'd prefer to see $10+ to have a bet.
Townsville 1-12 Doc's Lament [10]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Townsville 7-3, 9-7
Comments: The POOMA won handily yesterday at $3.50 and the two black book jumpers thrashed their opponents again as odds on favourites. Townsville 1-12 Doc's Lament is trying to break his duck at his 15th run in this and must be some sort of chance, as he's never too far away. He'll get an OK run from gate 2 but you'd prefer to see $10+ to have a bet.
Monday, May 14, 2007
SELECTIONS - 14 May 2007
POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])
Port Macquarie 7-2 Callinan [13]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Pakenham 3-1, 3-8, 4-3, 8-12
Port Macquarie 6-7, 8-9
Comments: Our selection's chances were not helped at all yesterday with the false start. I was a tad concerned about the horse getting a strong 1400m and, as it turned out, he was pretty weak up the straight. Today's selection is hardly the world's most winning horse but he's been in OK form so must be a chance even though he's picked by our non-favourite System 13.
Black Book: A couple of jumpers to watch today at Pakenham. 1-3 Mazzacano made it 2/2 over jumps when he really thrashed them at Warrnambool. 2-2 Hast Manana had his first start over hurdles in a weak field at Warrnambool and also won under a throttle hold by a huge space. They both look pretty promising and are a strong chance to bring up a double for trainer Robbie Laing.
Port Macquarie 7-2 Callinan [13]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Pakenham 3-1, 3-8, 4-3, 8-12
Port Macquarie 6-7, 8-9
Comments: Our selection's chances were not helped at all yesterday with the false start. I was a tad concerned about the horse getting a strong 1400m and, as it turned out, he was pretty weak up the straight. Today's selection is hardly the world's most winning horse but he's been in OK form so must be a chance even though he's picked by our non-favourite System 13.
Black Book: A couple of jumpers to watch today at Pakenham. 1-3 Mazzacano made it 2/2 over jumps when he really thrashed them at Warrnambool. 2-2 Hast Manana had his first start over hurdles in a weak field at Warrnambool and also won under a throttle hold by a huge space. They both look pretty promising and are a strong chance to bring up a double for trainer Robbie Laing.
Sunday, May 13, 2007
SELECTIONS - 13 May 2007
POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])
Gunnedah 4-4 Bizante [13]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Casterton 6-4, 7-7
Hobart 3-3
Gunnedah 6-8, 8-5
Sale 1-10
Sunshine Coast 1-2
Comments: Grand Cause got us off to a bad start at Randwick when never really looking likely in the small field as an odds on favourite and finishing 3rd. Secret Cause then made it a bad day for the xxxx-Cause named horses by running 4th as a $3.90 favourite at Seymour in a weak display. Back To Destroy then started ridiculously short and didn't justify his odds when 2nd. Diplomatic Force ran well but finished 3rd at Caulfield as our 4th favourite in a row. City Of Soul finished off our selections for the day by going like last week's pay for 850m. Unfortunately, it was a 1000m event and she weakened to finish dead last leaving our selections with a frustrating 34230 formline for the day. Gunnedah 4-4 Bizante has been consistent in his career with one win and seven placings from 14 starts. He's drawn well and has Greg Ryan on board so should go close.
Black book: Sale 6-3 Blazonry went into the BB with a note to assess her talent after her next start, as the fields she's met so far haven't been great but she has looked OK. She led, kicked away and went strongly to the line last time and looks a good chance here.
Gunnedah 4-4 Bizante [13]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Casterton 6-4, 7-7
Hobart 3-3
Gunnedah 6-8, 8-5
Sale 1-10
Sunshine Coast 1-2
Comments: Grand Cause got us off to a bad start at Randwick when never really looking likely in the small field as an odds on favourite and finishing 3rd. Secret Cause then made it a bad day for the xxxx-Cause named horses by running 4th as a $3.90 favourite at Seymour in a weak display. Back To Destroy then started ridiculously short and didn't justify his odds when 2nd. Diplomatic Force ran well but finished 3rd at Caulfield as our 4th favourite in a row. City Of Soul finished off our selections for the day by going like last week's pay for 850m. Unfortunately, it was a 1000m event and she weakened to finish dead last leaving our selections with a frustrating 34230 formline for the day. Gunnedah 4-4 Bizante has been consistent in his career with one win and seven placings from 14 starts. He's drawn well and has Greg Ryan on board so should go close.
Black book: Sale 6-3 Blazonry went into the BB with a note to assess her talent after her next start, as the fields she's met so far haven't been great but she has looked OK. She led, kicked away and went strongly to the line last time and looks a good chance here.
Saturday, May 12, 2007
SELECTIONS - 12 May 2007
POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])
Belmont 1-1 City Of Soul [18]
Caulfield 4-1 Diplomatic Force [18]
Randwick 1-1 Grand Cause [12]
Seymour 5-13 Secret Cause [7]
Seymour 6-3 Back To Destroy [13,14]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Belmont 5-3, 6-3
Caulfield 1-4, 5-10
Morphettville 1-3
Randwick 3-5, 4-4, 6-1
Seymour 6-8
(* Update at Belmont later on - UPDATED with POOMA *)
Comments: Randwick 1-1 Grand Cause got home nicely to score at Hawkesbury in sharp time first up and the step up to 1400m looks suitable. He's giving 1.5kg-5.5kg to a talented field so I wouldn't be taking anything less than $2.50. Seymour 5-13 Secret Cause is bursting to win a race and gets her chance in this though I'm not overly keen on the race in spite of the fact that System 7 has a 44% long term strike rate. Seymour 6-3 Back To Destroy has done well since stepping up to the staying trips, leaving aside his flop on a slow track. If he goes around at his prepost $2.50 then I'll be happy with that. Caulfield 4-1 Diplomatic Force keeps going out at good odds and keeps winning, which has been handy for me, as I grew up the son of a diplomat and had a few bob on it because of that. He meets Masked Assassin worse at the weights for their two clashes but he comes from behind and finishes strongly so should go close again today.
Black book: Morphettville 1-1 Smoulders sat at the back of the field, made a move on the turn and really out paid to them in a twinkling last time to record a ridiculously easy win. That made it 2/2 over jumps for this mare and, barring a fall, she should win again. Randwick 4-4 Neroli was really impressive last time on the heavy track and looks a huge chance to bring up her hat trick. Randwick 4-5 Bimutualconsent has been a little costly as a BB horse but has obvious talent and looks the quinella horse with the favourite.
Belmont 1-1 City Of Soul [18]
Caulfield 4-1 Diplomatic Force [18]
Randwick 1-1 Grand Cause [12]
Seymour 5-13 Secret Cause [7]
Seymour 6-3 Back To Destroy [13,14]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Belmont 5-3, 6-3
Caulfield 1-4, 5-10
Morphettville 1-3
Randwick 3-5, 4-4, 6-1
Seymour 6-8
(* Update at Belmont later on - UPDATED with POOMA *)
Comments: Randwick 1-1 Grand Cause got home nicely to score at Hawkesbury in sharp time first up and the step up to 1400m looks suitable. He's giving 1.5kg-5.5kg to a talented field so I wouldn't be taking anything less than $2.50. Seymour 5-13 Secret Cause is bursting to win a race and gets her chance in this though I'm not overly keen on the race in spite of the fact that System 7 has a 44% long term strike rate. Seymour 6-3 Back To Destroy has done well since stepping up to the staying trips, leaving aside his flop on a slow track. If he goes around at his prepost $2.50 then I'll be happy with that. Caulfield 4-1 Diplomatic Force keeps going out at good odds and keeps winning, which has been handy for me, as I grew up the son of a diplomat and had a few bob on it because of that. He meets Masked Assassin worse at the weights for their two clashes but he comes from behind and finishes strongly so should go close again today.
Black book: Morphettville 1-1 Smoulders sat at the back of the field, made a move on the turn and really out paid to them in a twinkling last time to record a ridiculously easy win. That made it 2/2 over jumps for this mare and, barring a fall, she should win again. Randwick 4-4 Neroli was really impressive last time on the heavy track and looks a huge chance to bring up her hat trick. Randwick 4-5 Bimutualconsent has been a little costly as a BB horse but has obvious talent and looks the quinella horse with the favourite.
Friday, May 11, 2007
SELECTIONS - 11 May 2007
POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])
Cranbourne 1-10 The Clown [18]
Goulburn 7-2 Simon's Comet [6,11,13]
Grafton 4-1 Innocenttassie [9]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Goulburn 5-11, 6-14
Comments: Ashraf made a mug of me yesterday when winning easily at Wyong. I didn't want to take anything like the $3.20 on the TAB but he had a nice run a won handsomely on the wet track. Cranbourne 1-10 The Clown has been beaten by a couple of OK horses at her two starts when well in the market. She looks to be a good chance again and might be good for a 1x2 be, as she'll be up on the pace around the tight Cranbourne circuit. Goulburn 7-2 Simon's Comet looks pretty well placed here on recent form. He's not the most winningest horse going around but neither are many of his opposition. Grafton 4-1 Innocenttassie ran 2nd in this grade first up as favourite before dropping back to a Class 1 race and flogging them. He's got Brendan Looker to guide him today with his 3kg claim so if he can handle the heavy track should just about win again.
Cranbourne 1-10 The Clown [18]
Goulburn 7-2 Simon's Comet [6,11,13]
Grafton 4-1 Innocenttassie [9]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Goulburn 5-11, 6-14
Comments: Ashraf made a mug of me yesterday when winning easily at Wyong. I didn't want to take anything like the $3.20 on the TAB but he had a nice run a won handsomely on the wet track. Cranbourne 1-10 The Clown has been beaten by a couple of OK horses at her two starts when well in the market. She looks to be a good chance again and might be good for a 1x2 be, as she'll be up on the pace around the tight Cranbourne circuit. Goulburn 7-2 Simon's Comet looks pretty well placed here on recent form. He's not the most winningest horse going around but neither are many of his opposition. Grafton 4-1 Innocenttassie ran 2nd in this grade first up as favourite before dropping back to a Class 1 race and flogging them. He's got Brendan Looker to guide him today with his 3kg claim so if he can handle the heavy track should just about win again.
Thursday, May 10, 2007
SELECTIONS - 10 May 2007
POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])
Northam 5-1 Amici [13]
Wyong 6-1 Ashraf [1]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Bendigo 1-1, 2-1
Northam 6-9, 8-4
Port Augusta 8-1
Sunshine Coast 2-2, 5-2, 7-13
Wyong 8-8
(* Updates at Northam later on - UPDATED with POOMA *)
Comments: I've seen some silly prices before but the $1.70 for our selection, Gold Chant, which ran like a one-legged crab was only topped by the $1.40 for Tuileries at Eagle Farm. Haven't people ever seen that horse run?? Our Belmont selection, Oroya Gold, then joined the club by going out at $1.70 and running 3rd. At least Stolit did the job for us nicely in the last at Eagle Farm.
Wyong 6-1 Ashraf enjoyed the wet track at Taree last time out when winning by from here to over the road. Horses running at Taree and then having their next start at a provincial NSW track don't have a spectacular record so I'd want to see $6+ to get interested.
Northam 5-1 Amici [13]
Wyong 6-1 Ashraf [1]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Bendigo 1-1, 2-1
Northam 6-9, 8-4
Port Augusta 8-1
Sunshine Coast 2-2, 5-2, 7-13
Wyong 8-8
(* Updates at Northam later on - UPDATED with POOMA *)
Comments: I've seen some silly prices before but the $1.70 for our selection, Gold Chant, which ran like a one-legged crab was only topped by the $1.40 for Tuileries at Eagle Farm. Haven't people ever seen that horse run?? Our Belmont selection, Oroya Gold, then joined the club by going out at $1.70 and running 3rd. At least Stolit did the job for us nicely in the last at Eagle Farm.
Wyong 6-1 Ashraf enjoyed the wet track at Taree last time out when winning by from here to over the road. Horses running at Taree and then having their next start at a provincial NSW track don't have a spectacular record so I'd want to see $6+ to get interested.
Wednesday, May 09, 2007
SELECTIONS - 9 May 2007
POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])
Eagle Farm 7-4 Stolit [10]
Cranbourne 1-1 Gold Chant [18]
Belmont 2-1 Oroya Gold [19,17]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Belmont 8-10
Cranbourne 1-1
Eagle Farm 1-7
Murray Bridge 8-15
(* Belmont updates later on - UPDATED *)
Comments: Our selection yesterday at Bathurst, Omadarlin, started $1.70, underwent a vet's examination at the start, was passed fit and ran slower than Roger after a seven course meal. Eagle Farm 7-4 Stolit has been racing around in his own age group for all of his career and even though he drops from an Open race to a Class 3 today the fact that it's an open age race means it's as hard as what he's faced recently. He must be a good chance, of course, but he'll be less than $3 and that's unappealing to me. Cranbourne 1-1 Gold Chant ran well for 2nd at Sandown before dropping back in grade for an easy win on a heavy track at Bendigo. This looks a pretty strong race but she should run well. Belmont 2-1 Oroya Gold ran around in the good 3YO races before going for a spell and resuming with a comprehensive win at Northam. He's drawn to get a good run and should be too good for these.
Black book: Cranbourne 5-5 Transferral went into the BB after his facile win at Warrnambool at his first go over sticks last time with a view to following him until he finds his level. He has flat ability so it wouldn't surprise me to see him run well in this.
Eagle Farm 7-4 Stolit [10]
Cranbourne 1-1 Gold Chant [18]
Belmont 2-1 Oroya Gold [19,17]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Belmont 8-10
Cranbourne 1-1
Eagle Farm 1-7
Murray Bridge 8-15
(* Belmont updates later on - UPDATED *)
Comments: Our selection yesterday at Bathurst, Omadarlin, started $1.70, underwent a vet's examination at the start, was passed fit and ran slower than Roger after a seven course meal. Eagle Farm 7-4 Stolit has been racing around in his own age group for all of his career and even though he drops from an Open race to a Class 3 today the fact that it's an open age race means it's as hard as what he's faced recently. He must be a good chance, of course, but he'll be less than $3 and that's unappealing to me. Cranbourne 1-1 Gold Chant ran well for 2nd at Sandown before dropping back in grade for an easy win on a heavy track at Bendigo. This looks a pretty strong race but she should run well. Belmont 2-1 Oroya Gold ran around in the good 3YO races before going for a spell and resuming with a comprehensive win at Northam. He's drawn to get a good run and should be too good for these.
Black book: Cranbourne 5-5 Transferral went into the BB after his facile win at Warrnambool at his first go over sticks last time with a view to following him until he finds his level. He has flat ability so it wouldn't surprise me to see him run well in this.
Tuesday, May 08, 2007
SELECTIONS - 8 May 2007
POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])
Bathurst 2-1 Omadarlin [18]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Swan Hill 7-5
Comments: 2/2 yesterday at a massive $1.80 and $1.20 with both horses winning by a space. That's the way it looked beforehand and that's how it turned out. Not much profit but not much risk either. Bathurst 2-1 Omadarlin has run a couple of good races at Dubbo with a narrow 2nd and then clear victory last time. It's hard to line that form up with the horses that are coming out of city runs, as they drop a heap in grade, but she looks a huge chance.
Bathurst 2-1 Omadarlin [18]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Swan Hill 7-5
Comments: 2/2 yesterday at a massive $1.80 and $1.20 with both horses winning by a space. That's the way it looked beforehand and that's how it turned out. Not much profit but not much risk either. Bathurst 2-1 Omadarlin has run a couple of good races at Dubbo with a narrow 2nd and then clear victory last time. It's hard to line that form up with the horses that are coming out of city runs, as they drop a heap in grade, but she looks a huge chance.
Monday, May 07, 2007
SELECTIONS - 7 May 2007
POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])
Alice Springs 1-1 Periduki [8]
Canterbury 1-1 Keiki [18]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Ipswich 1-7, 4-2
Comments: Alice Springs 1-1 Periduki has thrashed them at his last couple of runs and, barring a problem, looks likely to do so again today at around $1.20-$1.40. Canterbury 1-1 Keiki plummets in class from what she's been racing against and, unless one of the first starters is above average, she should get away with this race at around even money.
I think that the topweight, Nozi, will win the Alice Springs Cup. His defeat last time at the hands of today's rival, General Mark, came after a five week break and under 61.5kg. That was his first defeat on dirt tracks having previously won 3/3 at Darwin, including the Darwin Cup, and the Broken Hill Cup by a space. He'll be improved today and if e/w odds were available then that would be great. Looks a safe 1x2 bet for people that like to play that way.
Alice Springs 1-1 Periduki [8]
Canterbury 1-1 Keiki [18]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Ipswich 1-7, 4-2
Comments: Alice Springs 1-1 Periduki has thrashed them at his last couple of runs and, barring a problem, looks likely to do so again today at around $1.20-$1.40. Canterbury 1-1 Keiki plummets in class from what she's been racing against and, unless one of the first starters is above average, she should get away with this race at around even money.
I think that the topweight, Nozi, will win the Alice Springs Cup. His defeat last time at the hands of today's rival, General Mark, came after a five week break and under 61.5kg. That was his first defeat on dirt tracks having previously won 3/3 at Darwin, including the Darwin Cup, and the Broken Hill Cup by a space. He'll be improved today and if e/w odds were available then that would be great. Looks a safe 1x2 bet for people that like to play that way.
Sunday, May 06, 2007
SELECTIONS - 6 May 2007
POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])
Launceston 5-3 Diamond Beach [10]
Sunshine Coast 9-5 Stirring [9]
Taree 6-2 Pimpala Domino [13]
1.30 update - missed one at Taree somehow, included now
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Echuca 6-7, 8-1
Morphettville 2-7
Launceston 3-4
Northam 6-2
Sandown 1-4, 1-5
Sunshine Coast 7-2
Taree 4-9, 5-7
Comments: 1/4 yesterday returning $6.90 with our last pick of the day so that was nice. At Rosehill, Sacred Moon never looked likely to do anything other than run 2nd. He looks quite non-genuine to me. 10 minutes later at the Gold Coast Decerto was a tragedy beaten when never, ever getting a run at them in the straight. We'll follow him. Nicaragua did a Sacred Moon to run 2nd and, finally, we lobbed a winner with Easy Rocker who won nicely at Ipswich. Launceston 5-3 Diamond Beach must be some sort of chance first up today but I want to see at least $6. Sunshine Coast 9-5 Stirring led all of the way to win well over this course last time. She'll have to go forward from the gate and she's another that I want to get $6+ for to get interested, as this field includes some talented gallopers on the up.
Black book: I predicted we'd make a profit from the black book yesterday, which we did, but it wasn't as easy as I thought. Saint Sebastion ran extremely poorly to finish last at Rosehill in a performance quite out of character. I won't take him out on that run. Today we have: Morphettville 3-7 Little Arrow - this girl went into the BB after his first run, which paid immediate dividends next start at Caulfield. She certainly looks up to this race. Morphettville 6-1 Lazer Sharp got the chokkies for us last time at $10+. He's had 8 runs since going into the BB returning about $20 so he's a bit of a favourite for us. Given how easily he rounded them up last time you couldn't think that he was anything other than a great chance here. Sandown 5-2 Adam's Peak toughed it out well for 4th last time and will appreciate this easier race.
Launceston 5-3 Diamond Beach [10]
Sunshine Coast 9-5 Stirring [9]
Taree 6-2 Pimpala Domino [13]
1.30 update - missed one at Taree somehow, included now
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Echuca 6-7, 8-1
Morphettville 2-7
Launceston 3-4
Northam 6-2
Sandown 1-4, 1-5
Sunshine Coast 7-2
Taree 4-9, 5-7
Comments: 1/4 yesterday returning $6.90 with our last pick of the day so that was nice. At Rosehill, Sacred Moon never looked likely to do anything other than run 2nd. He looks quite non-genuine to me. 10 minutes later at the Gold Coast Decerto was a tragedy beaten when never, ever getting a run at them in the straight. We'll follow him. Nicaragua did a Sacred Moon to run 2nd and, finally, we lobbed a winner with Easy Rocker who won nicely at Ipswich. Launceston 5-3 Diamond Beach must be some sort of chance first up today but I want to see at least $6. Sunshine Coast 9-5 Stirring led all of the way to win well over this course last time. She'll have to go forward from the gate and she's another that I want to get $6+ for to get interested, as this field includes some talented gallopers on the up.
Black book: I predicted we'd make a profit from the black book yesterday, which we did, but it wasn't as easy as I thought. Saint Sebastion ran extremely poorly to finish last at Rosehill in a performance quite out of character. I won't take him out on that run. Today we have: Morphettville 3-7 Little Arrow - this girl went into the BB after his first run, which paid immediate dividends next start at Caulfield. She certainly looks up to this race. Morphettville 6-1 Lazer Sharp got the chokkies for us last time at $10+. He's had 8 runs since going into the BB returning about $20 so he's a bit of a favourite for us. Given how easily he rounded them up last time you couldn't think that he was anything other than a great chance here. Sandown 5-2 Adam's Peak toughed it out well for 4th last time and will appreciate this easier race.
Saturday, May 05, 2007
SELECTIONS - 5 May 2007
POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])
Ipswich 8-6 Easy Rocker [10]
Gold Coast 1-14 Decerto [1]
Kembla Grange 5-9 Nicaragua [7]
Rosehill 1-3 Sacred Moon [18]
11:55AM UPDATE: I inadvertently listed Belmont 1-1 as a POOMA when it's not
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Belmont 1-1
Gawler 8-2
Kembla Grange 7-7
Moonee Valley 2-3, 4-2, 6-13
Rosehill 3-2, 7-2, 8-5
Comments: Ipswich 8-6 Easy Rocker has drawn off the track and that really looks like it cruells his chance in this. If he can somehow get a sit then he might be a chance but I want to see double figure odds. Gold Coast 1-14 Decerto jumped quickly in grade last time, went to the front and thrashed them. Up in grade again here but gets in with no weight and a good draw so happy to have a go at around $2.50. Kembla Grange 5-9 Nicaragua has been unlucky not to break his duck so far and drops in grade for this. He'll go to the front and be hard to run down. Rosehill 1-3 Sacred Moon has been getting home well in his races but hasn't managed to crack it for a win. This doesn't look spectacularly hard and the trips suits so should run a good race.
Black book: Quite a few today so I'll just list them. Belmont 2-10; Gold Coast 5-9; Ipswich 1-8; Moonee Valley 1-6, 3-1, 6-13; Rosehill 2-5, 3-5. I reckon we'll get a profit from these today.
Ipswich 8-6 Easy Rocker [10]
Gold Coast 1-14 Decerto [1]
Kembla Grange 5-9 Nicaragua [7]
Rosehill 1-3 Sacred Moon [18]
11:55AM UPDATE: I inadvertently listed Belmont 1-1 as a POOMA when it's not
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Belmont 1-1
Gawler 8-2
Kembla Grange 7-7
Moonee Valley 2-3, 4-2, 6-13
Rosehill 3-2, 7-2, 8-5
Comments: Ipswich 8-6 Easy Rocker has drawn off the track and that really looks like it cruells his chance in this. If he can somehow get a sit then he might be a chance but I want to see double figure odds. Gold Coast 1-14 Decerto jumped quickly in grade last time, went to the front and thrashed them. Up in grade again here but gets in with no weight and a good draw so happy to have a go at around $2.50. Kembla Grange 5-9 Nicaragua has been unlucky not to break his duck so far and drops in grade for this. He'll go to the front and be hard to run down. Rosehill 1-3 Sacred Moon has been getting home well in his races but hasn't managed to crack it for a win. This doesn't look spectacularly hard and the trips suits so should run a good race.
Black book: Quite a few today so I'll just list them. Belmont 2-10; Gold Coast 5-9; Ipswich 1-8; Moonee Valley 1-6, 3-1, 6-13; Rosehill 2-5, 3-5. I reckon we'll get a profit from these today.
Friday, May 04, 2007
SELECTIONS - 4 May 2007
POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])
Armidale 4-1 Derivative Receipt [1]
Townsville 1-2 Amber Futuh [11]
Townsville 5-1 Mameluke [4,15]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Armidale 5-3, 5-4
Townsville 5-11, 8-10
Wagga 3-1
Comments: Thankfully, Danzamonkey did a good job to get home under his 59kg at Townsville yesterday because he would have been loser number 13 in a row for us and our record of 14 would be under threat. Armidale 4-1 Derivative Receipt really hit his straps when stepped up in trip in winning a couple of non-TAB races recently. He looks to have some upside so will have a go at about $3. Townsville 1-2 Amber Futuh must be a chance on her early 2YO. The problem is she clashed with Chief Red Feather a few times and beat him home once so unless she's improved during her spell you wouldn't want to be taking less than $3.40. Townsville 5-1 Mameluke has been running around in the city so plummets in class here for his new trainer. He's got to drop back 420m off a 25 day break and he's not a horse with a lot of zip so I'd want to see $6 to get interested.
Black bookers: Townsville 6-8 Back Of House has been good to us. He's only small so he'll appreciate the 54.5kg. Must be a chance. I'll assess Wagga 8-10 Bimutualconsent as an ongoing BB horse, as she's cost us a bit since the run that got her in.
Armidale 4-1 Derivative Receipt [1]
Townsville 1-2 Amber Futuh [11]
Townsville 5-1 Mameluke [4,15]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Armidale 5-3, 5-4
Townsville 5-11, 8-10
Wagga 3-1
Comments: Thankfully, Danzamonkey did a good job to get home under his 59kg at Townsville yesterday because he would have been loser number 13 in a row for us and our record of 14 would be under threat. Armidale 4-1 Derivative Receipt really hit his straps when stepped up in trip in winning a couple of non-TAB races recently. He looks to have some upside so will have a go at about $3. Townsville 1-2 Amber Futuh must be a chance on her early 2YO. The problem is she clashed with Chief Red Feather a few times and beat him home once so unless she's improved during her spell you wouldn't want to be taking less than $3.40. Townsville 5-1 Mameluke has been running around in the city so plummets in class here for his new trainer. He's got to drop back 420m off a 25 day break and he's not a horse with a lot of zip so I'd want to see $6 to get interested.
Black bookers: Townsville 6-8 Back Of House has been good to us. He's only small so he'll appreciate the 54.5kg. Must be a chance. I'll assess Wagga 8-10 Bimutualconsent as an ongoing BB horse, as she's cost us a bit since the run that got her in.
Thursday, May 03, 2007
SELECTIONS - 3 May 2007
POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])
Rockhampton 4-3 Revolva [10]
Rockhampton 5-6 Jewel Speed [10]
Rockhampton 7-1 Danzamonkey [3,10]
Warrnambool 5-7 Dance Maiden [1]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Hawkesbury 4-1
Rockhampton 3-7
Warrnambool 1-5, 2-3, 7-1, 7-4
Comments: Gee, our POOMA yesterday was weak. Never looked likely so let's hope today's collection show more heart. In the Wangoom, Bond Street ran a shocker. I expected a lot better.
Warrnambool 5-7 Dance Maiden is a horse I've actually had an OK opinion of for a little while and it surprised me that she took so long to win a race. She won her Maiden at Cranbourne two starts back and then really smashed a Restricted field at that track under 58kg at her next start. She seems pretty well placed here and obviously handles the wet so I'm looking for a good showing. Rockhampton 4-3 Revolva has a consistent record and looks like a fair chance in this race but I wouldn't be taking less than $4 about a horse that's 1/15 and that seems an unlikely price to get. Rockhampton 5-6 Jewel Speed last won a race 359 days ago and has been unlucky not to score again. She looks like she might have the main chances covered that have been racing in the area but Drop Of Hennesy has been running well in SE QLD and might be too good. Rockhampton 7-1 Danzamonkey has always shown ability but had only won one of his first eight starts before returning from a spell and easily taking out the two races he's run in. He's got to lump 59kg and come from the extreme outside gate here but that might just add to his price.
Rockhampton 4-3 Revolva [10]
Rockhampton 5-6 Jewel Speed [10]
Rockhampton 7-1 Danzamonkey [3,10]
Warrnambool 5-7 Dance Maiden [1]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Hawkesbury 4-1
Rockhampton 3-7
Warrnambool 1-5, 2-3, 7-1, 7-4
Comments: Gee, our POOMA yesterday was weak. Never looked likely so let's hope today's collection show more heart. In the Wangoom, Bond Street ran a shocker. I expected a lot better.
Warrnambool 5-7 Dance Maiden is a horse I've actually had an OK opinion of for a little while and it surprised me that she took so long to win a race. She won her Maiden at Cranbourne two starts back and then really smashed a Restricted field at that track under 58kg at her next start. She seems pretty well placed here and obviously handles the wet so I'm looking for a good showing. Rockhampton 4-3 Revolva has a consistent record and looks like a fair chance in this race but I wouldn't be taking less than $4 about a horse that's 1/15 and that seems an unlikely price to get. Rockhampton 5-6 Jewel Speed last won a race 359 days ago and has been unlucky not to score again. She looks like she might have the main chances covered that have been racing in the area but Drop Of Hennesy has been running well in SE QLD and might be too good. Rockhampton 7-1 Danzamonkey has always shown ability but had only won one of his first eight starts before returning from a spell and easily taking out the two races he's run in. He's got to lump 59kg and come from the extreme outside gate here but that might just add to his price.
Wednesday, May 02, 2007
SELECTIONS - 2 May 2007
POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])
Doomben 8-4 Briella [20]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Balaklava 2-2, 5-1, 5-6
Bunbury 7-5
Kempsey 7-7
Warrnambool 5-3, 5-5, 6-2, 6-3, 8-19
Comments: Two out of three over the jumps yesterday in the non-POOMAs with $2.10 and $7.20 winners. I've mentioned before that my systems aimed at jumping races go pretty well and one of them will be a contender to replace underperforming systems at my planned mid-year review. That'll put the mock on those selected today, of course. Doomben 8-4 Briella sat behind the pace and finished well to win over 900m at the Gold Coast last time. She gets in with just 51kg after the claim for D Piesley and if she's an apprentice's filly then will have to go close. In the Wangoom at Warrnambool, 19-Bond Street looks a special to me with the only danger being last year's winner, Gunner Tom.
Black book runners: Kempsey 6-3 New Mexico went into the BB after his first up 2nd and then franked that decision by winning his Maiden. He followed up with an OK run in Cl2 company and drops to Cl1 today so I'll assess his status after the run, as we've already got our money from this bloke. Warrnambool 7-5 He's Fierce really whupped them first up and he's in the BB until he's had 10 starts, as he's one of those horses that will go through the grades and even win in town. He's by Shovhog and I don't know how they go in the wet so I guess we'll find out. There are a couple of talented gallopers in this race in the form of Conformator and Seymour Bush with the pace probably being set by Terang Miracle which allows He's Fierce to take a sit or be outside the speed. Warrnambool 10-4 Secret Flyer thrashed them at Echuca before settling last, being off the bit and under hard riding carrying 58kg on the turn at Mornington and somehow picked up the bit and flashed home up that short straight for 4th in a strong field. He went into the BB with a note to watch him on a big track to assess his ability and he gets that today at this big track.
Doomben 8-4 Briella [20]
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Balaklava 2-2, 5-1, 5-6
Bunbury 7-5
Kempsey 7-7
Warrnambool 5-3, 5-5, 6-2, 6-3, 8-19
Comments: Two out of three over the jumps yesterday in the non-POOMAs with $2.10 and $7.20 winners. I've mentioned before that my systems aimed at jumping races go pretty well and one of them will be a contender to replace underperforming systems at my planned mid-year review. That'll put the mock on those selected today, of course. Doomben 8-4 Briella sat behind the pace and finished well to win over 900m at the Gold Coast last time. She gets in with just 51kg after the claim for D Piesley and if she's an apprentice's filly then will have to go close. In the Wangoom at Warrnambool, 19-Bond Street looks a special to me with the only danger being last year's winner, Gunner Tom.
Black book runners: Kempsey 6-3 New Mexico went into the BB after his first up 2nd and then franked that decision by winning his Maiden. He followed up with an OK run in Cl2 company and drops to Cl1 today so I'll assess his status after the run, as we've already got our money from this bloke. Warrnambool 7-5 He's Fierce really whupped them first up and he's in the BB until he's had 10 starts, as he's one of those horses that will go through the grades and even win in town. He's by Shovhog and I don't know how they go in the wet so I guess we'll find out. There are a couple of talented gallopers in this race in the form of Conformator and Seymour Bush with the pace probably being set by Terang Miracle which allows He's Fierce to take a sit or be outside the speed. Warrnambool 10-4 Secret Flyer thrashed them at Echuca before settling last, being off the bit and under hard riding carrying 58kg on the turn at Mornington and somehow picked up the bit and flashed home up that short straight for 4th in a strong field. He went into the BB with a note to watch him on a big track to assess his ability and he gets that today at this big track.
Tuesday, May 01, 2007
SELECTIONS - 1 May 2007
POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Warrnambool 4-4, 4-12, 6-1
Comments: Heavy at Goulburn. Slow at Warrnambool. I'll pass thank you very much.
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Warrnambool 4-4, 4-12, 6-1
Comments: Heavy at Goulburn. Slow at Warrnambool. I'll pass thank you very much.
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