Track Race-TAB Horse [Live Selections/Win Strike Rate %/ Profit %]
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections:
...and no non-POOMAs either
It would have been nice if T Barry on our $11 POOMA, Emergence, could have either 1) been a tad more patient or 2) not lost so much ground on the corner in the last at Warracknabeal before finishing a narrow second to one that stayed close to the fence. Following the good win of General McAllister we could have finished the racing season on a high. I hope you got the $200 quinella picked out in race 4 at Flemington. Other than that was a relatively difficult day to find a winner though I did have enough luck to finish ahead.
To help us celebrate the last day of the racing season we have the pleasure, and considerable challenge, of trying to find winners at a heavy Wagga and slow Echuca. Looking for a bit of value at Echuca I've come up with 1=2,6; 2=4; 3=5; 4=3,4,5; 5=2,4,5,8,10; 6=1,5; 7=3,6; 8=1,6; 9=1,3,11,14. And you're on your own at Wagga!
Monday, July 31, 2006
Sunday, July 30, 2006
SELECTIONS - 30 July 2006
Track Race-TAB Horse [Live Selections/Win Strike Rate %/ Profit %]
Hobart 6-1 General McAllister [87/34.5%/49%]
Warracknabeal 8-8 Emergence [70/30.0%/35%]
Non-POOMA selections:
Flemington 1-9, 5-8, 8-11
Hobart 1-7, 4-3
Kalgoorlie 2-8
Sale 1-9, 3-9, 5-2
Sunshine Coast 1-4, 3-1, 7-2
Warracknabeal 1-2, 1-4, 3-3, 3-5
In the non-POOMA selections I've marked in red the ones that have come out of my ruffies system. I don't use it as a POOMA system due to the low strike rate and consequential long losing runs but since it went live on 28/3/04 it's had 149 selections for 16 winners = 10.7% s/r and is showing a profit of 59%. Its best winner was Perceptive in Tassie last year that went into the race with form reading 0000 and it paid over $90 on Vic TAB. When Bluenunblessed won its maiden at around $60 it had form of 0997 and was never going to lose the race.
I had a bunch of quaddies yesterday and went out in six of them in the first leg. Disaster. I luckily finished well in front due to having a $20 bet that netted me the Newcastle race 9 for five units. Other than that I spent the day screwing up tickets.
Talking of Newcastle, the winner of race 6, National Icon, prepared by a trainer I've never heard of, Richard Baker, was having his second race start and his first since December 2003 when he raced in Canberra some 960 days ago. Quite amazing. I've just run an analyis across my database (TAB meetings only), which goes back to 1/1/2000 and it shows it's a rare event but not as rare as one might at first suppose. Looking for horses coming off a 2+ year break I found that there were 857 runners trying to fulfill the dreams of their obviously patient owners. How many won? 14. That's 1.7%, which is about the same as a $60 winner. So it's rare but not unexpected. Let's look at some of the more interesting stats.
On 16 August 2005 the 13 year old - that's right, 13 - Blues Grandee resumed from a 2,376 day spell. Obviously, his last run 2nd in a Class D race at the Woolamai picnics on 13 February 1999 convinced his durable owners that one day he could improve his 2 wins from 37 start record. Strangely enough, he ran last but was only beaten 14 lengths so that wasn't a bad effort all things considered. How were they keeping him fit enough to race? Pulling a milk cart? By the way, he started officially at 300/1. On 7 August 2001 Tassie Tiger attempted to win his maiden as a 9YO at his 7th start having had 2,149 days to prepare for his attempt at glory. You may be amazed to find that he started at 16/1 and ran 5th in a field of 11 beaten 7.2L. Outstanding stuff. Neither of those two horses was owned by the trainer, which makes one wonder. There were 136 runners coming off a 3+ year break for no wins.
So what about the winners? On 15 July 2002 King Joey, who was only a couple of weeks away from turning 10, came out of 1,085 days' hibernation to narrowly win, amazingly, a 1600m Class 3 race at Seymour at 50/1. That is the longest break to then win I have on record.
Now, you may think that horses coming off such long breaks will naturally be long odds. Far from it, dear reader. On 5 June 2002 at Balaklava, Danazar returned as a 4YO from a 753 day break to easily win a set weights maiden at $1.70 beating 9 rivals. Not only was he short but he was the tipster's pick and the late mail. His 3 previous runs as a 2YO had been in Listed and Group company in which he started favourite and ran a 2nd and two 4ths. If it wasn't a set weights maiden he would have had the grandstand. There are a few others that started at single figure odds and won so I guess the moral of the story is if they're in the market there must be a reason.
At Moonee Valley yesterday, Andrew Mallyon on Blutigeroo got completely outridden by Ben Smith on Delvecchio leaving punters lamenting. Other shorties in Hachiman, Haddle McDaddle and Paris Zero also never got their supporters' hopes up. That last one ran like Roger on Sunday morning after a St Kilda win.
Four heavy tracks and two slow ones from the eight TAB meetings today means that you should keep your wallet locked away for the day. In race 2 at Flemington the topweight, Fuji Fantasy, looks the goods and will be a fair price. It's rare to see Eric Musgrove with a 2YO runner let alone one that can actually gallop a bit. He's got this one going nicely, though. Looking for a bit of value for multiples I'll give out race 4=1,5,6,7; 5=2,8; 6=7,9,11; 7=5; 8=11. Other races around the place look a bit ordinary. No surprises there given it's Sunday. Express Star should kick off the first leg of the quaddie at Sale and Caesar's Jewel drops in grade for its assignment in race 3 at the Sunshine Coast. Way over in the mining town of Kalgoorlie, Lomondside Lass drops from a Class 2 race into a set weights maiden and she should go very close to breaking her duck.
Hobart 6-1 General McAllister [87/34.5%/49%]
Warracknabeal 8-8 Emergence [70/30.0%/35%]
Non-POOMA selections:
Flemington 1-9, 5-8, 8-11
Hobart 1-7, 4-3
Kalgoorlie 2-8
Sale 1-9, 3-9, 5-2
Sunshine Coast 1-4, 3-1, 7-2
Warracknabeal 1-2, 1-4, 3-3, 3-5
In the non-POOMA selections I've marked in red the ones that have come out of my ruffies system. I don't use it as a POOMA system due to the low strike rate and consequential long losing runs but since it went live on 28/3/04 it's had 149 selections for 16 winners = 10.7% s/r and is showing a profit of 59%. Its best winner was Perceptive in Tassie last year that went into the race with form reading 0000 and it paid over $90 on Vic TAB. When Bluenunblessed won its maiden at around $60 it had form of 0997 and was never going to lose the race.
I had a bunch of quaddies yesterday and went out in six of them in the first leg. Disaster. I luckily finished well in front due to having a $20 bet that netted me the Newcastle race 9 for five units. Other than that I spent the day screwing up tickets.
Talking of Newcastle, the winner of race 6, National Icon, prepared by a trainer I've never heard of, Richard Baker, was having his second race start and his first since December 2003 when he raced in Canberra some 960 days ago. Quite amazing. I've just run an analyis across my database (TAB meetings only), which goes back to 1/1/2000 and it shows it's a rare event but not as rare as one might at first suppose. Looking for horses coming off a 2+ year break I found that there were 857 runners trying to fulfill the dreams of their obviously patient owners. How many won? 14. That's 1.7%, which is about the same as a $60 winner. So it's rare but not unexpected. Let's look at some of the more interesting stats.
On 16 August 2005 the 13 year old - that's right, 13 - Blues Grandee resumed from a 2,376 day spell. Obviously, his last run 2nd in a Class D race at the Woolamai picnics on 13 February 1999 convinced his durable owners that one day he could improve his 2 wins from 37 start record. Strangely enough, he ran last but was only beaten 14 lengths so that wasn't a bad effort all things considered. How were they keeping him fit enough to race? Pulling a milk cart? By the way, he started officially at 300/1. On 7 August 2001 Tassie Tiger attempted to win his maiden as a 9YO at his 7th start having had 2,149 days to prepare for his attempt at glory. You may be amazed to find that he started at 16/1 and ran 5th in a field of 11 beaten 7.2L. Outstanding stuff. Neither of those two horses was owned by the trainer, which makes one wonder. There were 136 runners coming off a 3+ year break for no wins.
So what about the winners? On 15 July 2002 King Joey, who was only a couple of weeks away from turning 10, came out of 1,085 days' hibernation to narrowly win, amazingly, a 1600m Class 3 race at Seymour at 50/1. That is the longest break to then win I have on record.
Now, you may think that horses coming off such long breaks will naturally be long odds. Far from it, dear reader. On 5 June 2002 at Balaklava, Danazar returned as a 4YO from a 753 day break to easily win a set weights maiden at $1.70 beating 9 rivals. Not only was he short but he was the tipster's pick and the late mail. His 3 previous runs as a 2YO had been in Listed and Group company in which he started favourite and ran a 2nd and two 4ths. If it wasn't a set weights maiden he would have had the grandstand. There are a few others that started at single figure odds and won so I guess the moral of the story is if they're in the market there must be a reason.
At Moonee Valley yesterday, Andrew Mallyon on Blutigeroo got completely outridden by Ben Smith on Delvecchio leaving punters lamenting. Other shorties in Hachiman, Haddle McDaddle and Paris Zero also never got their supporters' hopes up. That last one ran like Roger on Sunday morning after a St Kilda win.
Four heavy tracks and two slow ones from the eight TAB meetings today means that you should keep your wallet locked away for the day. In race 2 at Flemington the topweight, Fuji Fantasy, looks the goods and will be a fair price. It's rare to see Eric Musgrove with a 2YO runner let alone one that can actually gallop a bit. He's got this one going nicely, though. Looking for a bit of value for multiples I'll give out race 4=1,5,6,7; 5=2,8; 6=7,9,11; 7=5; 8=11. Other races around the place look a bit ordinary. No surprises there given it's Sunday. Express Star should kick off the first leg of the quaddie at Sale and Caesar's Jewel drops in grade for its assignment in race 3 at the Sunshine Coast. Way over in the mining town of Kalgoorlie, Lomondside Lass drops from a Class 2 race into a set weights maiden and she should go very close to breaking her duck.
Saturday, July 29, 2006
SELECTIONS - 29 July 2006
Track Race-TAB Horse [Live Selections/Win Strike Rate %/ Profit %]
Moonee Valley 3-2 Some Are Bent [26/38.5%/32%]
Non-POOMA selections:
Belmont 2-12
Cheltenham 9-3
Moonee Valley 3-3, 4-3
Wangaratta 4-13, 6-9
What a shocking day for a punt. Blutigeroo looks like he'll rack up another win at Moonee Valley. Quinella for a heap with Presenting and add Align Of Chaucer for trifectas. The quinella 2&3 in the hurdle at MV might be a go, otherwise, it all looks bad!
Moonee Valley 3-2 Some Are Bent [26/38.5%/32%]
Non-POOMA selections:
Belmont 2-12
Cheltenham 9-3
Moonee Valley 3-3, 4-3
Wangaratta 4-13, 6-9
What a shocking day for a punt. Blutigeroo looks like he'll rack up another win at Moonee Valley. Quinella for a heap with Presenting and add Align Of Chaucer for trifectas. The quinella 2&3 in the hurdle at MV might be a go, otherwise, it all looks bad!
Friday, July 28, 2006
SELECTIONS - 28 July 2006
Track Race-TAB Horse [Live Selections/Win Strike Rate %/ Profit %]
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections:
Ballarat 1-1, 5-10, 8-5
Canberra 5-8
Gold Coast 4-2
Around $4 yesterday for Sea Zulu was amongst the best value I've ever seen on a racecourse. Perfect analysis with Captain Wheland leading and Sea Zulu crossing from his wide gate to get a good position, which he used to launch his winning run entering the straight. Captain Wheland is a good horse but how he could start favourite is beyond me given he's suspect at 1200m in good company. The run of the topweight, Strictly Smart, to get 3rd was sensational under 59kg and from the extreme outside barrier 16. He has won 25 from 52 and over $300K prizemoney for what must be delighted connections.
You'll see a good horse in the first at Ballarat. Illustration was off the bit on the corner last time. Ollie got stuck into him at the top of the straight and then rode him out pretty much hands and heels for a soft win. There's not a heap of speed here, which will turn it into a sprint up the straight so the horse wouldn't want to be off the bit and chasing on the corner again given he'll probably be about $1.20.
The all-weather track at Canberra (called the Acton track) has been a revelation. Very fair racing on a top surface has been the order of the day. Ones to watch are 2-1, 3-1 (could be really good), 4-4, 7-14 and 8-7.
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections:
Ballarat 1-1, 5-10, 8-5
Canberra 5-8
Gold Coast 4-2
Around $4 yesterday for Sea Zulu was amongst the best value I've ever seen on a racecourse. Perfect analysis with Captain Wheland leading and Sea Zulu crossing from his wide gate to get a good position, which he used to launch his winning run entering the straight. Captain Wheland is a good horse but how he could start favourite is beyond me given he's suspect at 1200m in good company. The run of the topweight, Strictly Smart, to get 3rd was sensational under 59kg and from the extreme outside barrier 16. He has won 25 from 52 and over $300K prizemoney for what must be delighted connections.
You'll see a good horse in the first at Ballarat. Illustration was off the bit on the corner last time. Ollie got stuck into him at the top of the straight and then rode him out pretty much hands and heels for a soft win. There's not a heap of speed here, which will turn it into a sprint up the straight so the horse wouldn't want to be off the bit and chasing on the corner again given he'll probably be about $1.20.
The all-weather track at Canberra (called the Acton track) has been a revelation. Very fair racing on a top surface has been the order of the day. Ones to watch are 2-1, 3-1 (could be really good), 4-4, 7-14 and 8-7.
Thursday, July 27, 2006
SELECTIONS - 27 July 2006
Track Race-TAB Horse [Live Selections/Win Strike Rate %/ Profit %]
Townsville 7-11 Sea Zulu [24/70.8%/40%]
Non-POOMA selections:
Northam 4-5, 7-8
Townsville 8-7
Every so often a horse comes along that you seem to remember, formwise, better than others. Typically, they're in the non-metro areas. Langfibian, who won for us the other week at $10 is one example. You know when they're well graded and are going to run well. Today's POOMA, Sea Zulu, falls into that category, as well. He's already a two time POOMA selection, winning both races (last year), and he looks a terrific chance to bring up a POOMA hat trick. He won over this course and distance at WFA last time out beating many of his rivals today. In this handicap event he drops from 57kg to 53kg, as do many of the horses he beat home. However, the good galloper Strictly Smart, who ran 2nd to Sea Zulu last time, rises 1.5kg and that won't help his chances at all. Captain Wheland is a very good horse who is a mad leader, which will help Sea Zulu, as he also has pace and will be able to cross from his gate 11 to be outside, or just off, that horse early. Captain Wheland hasn't shown he can get 1200m in good company yet but having him in the race will mean that Sea Zulu doesn't start odds on, which he should. As you can see, the system that has picked the POOMA has a 17/24 record, which is pretty amazing.
There are a few horses running at Townsville that are coming off NSW and Victorian runs that are worth watching. 6-1 Whinewomensong is probably the best of the three with the other two being 2-2 & 2-8.
Race 5 at Bendigo, the first leg of the quaddie, looks like a field job to me. Every horse in the race started at 10/1 or greater last time except Outlaw Love - and she's coming off a hurdle run. Between them they've had 237 starts for an outstanding 37 placings (and two hurdle wins). 10 of those placings belong to Eureka Express who looks out of form, which shows how poorly the rest are going. For the record, I'll start the quaddie with 3,4,7,8,12,13,15 & 16.
Townsville 7-11 Sea Zulu [24/70.8%/40%]
Non-POOMA selections:
Northam 4-5, 7-8
Townsville 8-7
Every so often a horse comes along that you seem to remember, formwise, better than others. Typically, they're in the non-metro areas. Langfibian, who won for us the other week at $10 is one example. You know when they're well graded and are going to run well. Today's POOMA, Sea Zulu, falls into that category, as well. He's already a two time POOMA selection, winning both races (last year), and he looks a terrific chance to bring up a POOMA hat trick. He won over this course and distance at WFA last time out beating many of his rivals today. In this handicap event he drops from 57kg to 53kg, as do many of the horses he beat home. However, the good galloper Strictly Smart, who ran 2nd to Sea Zulu last time, rises 1.5kg and that won't help his chances at all. Captain Wheland is a very good horse who is a mad leader, which will help Sea Zulu, as he also has pace and will be able to cross from his gate 11 to be outside, or just off, that horse early. Captain Wheland hasn't shown he can get 1200m in good company yet but having him in the race will mean that Sea Zulu doesn't start odds on, which he should. As you can see, the system that has picked the POOMA has a 17/24 record, which is pretty amazing.
There are a few horses running at Townsville that are coming off NSW and Victorian runs that are worth watching. 6-1 Whinewomensong is probably the best of the three with the other two being 2-2 & 2-8.
Race 5 at Bendigo, the first leg of the quaddie, looks like a field job to me. Every horse in the race started at 10/1 or greater last time except Outlaw Love - and she's coming off a hurdle run. Between them they've had 237 starts for an outstanding 37 placings (and two hurdle wins). 10 of those placings belong to Eureka Express who looks out of form, which shows how poorly the rest are going. For the record, I'll start the quaddie with 3,4,7,8,12,13,15 & 16.
Wednesday, July 26, 2006
SELECTIONS - 26 July 2006
Track Race-TAB Horse [Live Selections/Win Strike Rate %/ Profit %]
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections:
Balaklava 4-4
Randwick 2-4
Sandown 4-4, 4-5, 6-10
I missed the Tatura quaddie yesterday by a long neck yesterday when our POOMA selection failed to lob. Given it paid $23K I reckon it would have paid about $8K so that was a bummer. Then I had all of the horses in the last leg of the quaddie at Rocky and, of course, the one paying the shortest divvie got up narrowly. Them's the breaks. Finished ahead so can't complain too hard.
Not much of a day and nothing really stands out. I might try the 4-5 quinella in Sandown race 4 and 1-2 in Belmont race 4.
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections:
Balaklava 4-4
Randwick 2-4
Sandown 4-4, 4-5, 6-10
I missed the Tatura quaddie yesterday by a long neck yesterday when our POOMA selection failed to lob. Given it paid $23K I reckon it would have paid about $8K so that was a bummer. Then I had all of the horses in the last leg of the quaddie at Rocky and, of course, the one paying the shortest divvie got up narrowly. Them's the breaks. Finished ahead so can't complain too hard.
Not much of a day and nothing really stands out. I might try the 4-5 quinella in Sandown race 4 and 1-2 in Belmont race 4.
Tuesday, July 25, 2006
SELECTIONS - 25 July 2006
Track Race-TAB Horse [Live Selections/Win Strike Rate %/ Profit %]
Canterbury 5-3 Absolutely Adriana [86/34.9%/51%]
Rockhampton 3-1 Time To Star [37/48.6%/29%]
Tatura 8-2 Incentate [25/40.0%/37%]
Non-POOMA selections:
None!
These heavy tracks don't inspire much betting confidence so unless you're really sure that your selections can handle bog tracks then give it a miss.
Of the POOMAs, Absolutely Adriana seems pretty well graded on her last start win. She looks like the leader, depending on what Orpenaire does (I expect her to sit outside our pick), and she'll be fighting out the finish with the only query being the last 100m. Time To Star at Rocky looks a pretty good chance. In fact, that race looks like there's only three hopes - 1, 2 & 5 - all of the favourites. Incentate at Tatura is pretty well in here. Danger looks to be the topweight.
Canterbury 5-3 Absolutely Adriana [86/34.9%/51%]
Rockhampton 3-1 Time To Star [37/48.6%/29%]
Tatura 8-2 Incentate [25/40.0%/37%]
Non-POOMA selections:
None!
These heavy tracks don't inspire much betting confidence so unless you're really sure that your selections can handle bog tracks then give it a miss.
Of the POOMAs, Absolutely Adriana seems pretty well graded on her last start win. She looks like the leader, depending on what Orpenaire does (I expect her to sit outside our pick), and she'll be fighting out the finish with the only query being the last 100m. Time To Star at Rocky looks a pretty good chance. In fact, that race looks like there's only three hopes - 1, 2 & 5 - all of the favourites. Incentate at Tatura is pretty well in here. Danger looks to be the topweight.
Monday, July 24, 2006
SELECTIONS - 24 July 2006
Track Race-TAB Horse [Live Selections/Win Strike Rate %/ Profit %]
Wellington 8-1 Schickedanz [85/35.3%/52%]
Mildura 8-5 Golden Hank [68/30.9%/39%]
Non-POOMA selections:
Wellington 1-3
Mildura 2-1
Well, just when the old warrior, Lazza, looked to be dashing away from the field he takes off a tad early at a jump and falls. Horse and rider are OK, which is good news. In the last at Hawkesbury, our tip, Fuji Lad, was putting in a strong finishing burst when he broke down. I don't know what the result was but it didn't look good. Let's hope they all get around safely today.
Wellington 8-1 Schickedanz [85/35.3%/52%]
Mildura 8-5 Golden Hank [68/30.9%/39%]
Non-POOMA selections:
Wellington 1-3
Mildura 2-1
Well, just when the old warrior, Lazza, looked to be dashing away from the field he takes off a tad early at a jump and falls. Horse and rider are OK, which is good news. In the last at Hawkesbury, our tip, Fuji Lad, was putting in a strong finishing burst when he broke down. I don't know what the result was but it didn't look good. Let's hope they all get around safely today.
Sunday, July 23, 2006
SELECTIONS - 23 July 2006
Track Race-TAB Horse [Live Selections/Win Strike Rate %/ Profit %]
Casterton 4-1 Volksmabeel [66/31.8%/43%]
Casterton 8-6 Top Scarlett [66/31.8%/43%]
Hawkesbury 8-1 Fuji Lad [84/35.7%/54%]
Non-POOMA selections:
Cranbourne 1-11, 4-10, 8-5
Sunshine Coast 3-2
A good day yesterday, starting with a $7 POOMA winner. Today looks a bit average. The remarkable old steeplechaser, Lazza, is going for his 10th win at the Casterton track. His last three jumps runs there have resulted in large margins with his 6.6L last start effort being the smallest. He's won 13 races but only $84K in prizemoney, which really does show he's a true bush battler. Good luck to him today.
Casterton 4-1 Volksmabeel [66/31.8%/43%]
Casterton 8-6 Top Scarlett [66/31.8%/43%]
Hawkesbury 8-1 Fuji Lad [84/35.7%/54%]
Non-POOMA selections:
Cranbourne 1-11, 4-10, 8-5
Sunshine Coast 3-2
A good day yesterday, starting with a $7 POOMA winner. Today looks a bit average. The remarkable old steeplechaser, Lazza, is going for his 10th win at the Casterton track. His last three jumps runs there have resulted in large margins with his 6.6L last start effort being the smallest. He's won 13 races but only $84K in prizemoney, which really does show he's a true bush battler. Good luck to him today.
Saturday, July 22, 2006
SELECTIONS - 22 July 2006
Track Race-TAB Horse [Live Selections/Win Strike Rate %/ Profit %]
Belmont 7-4 Danacolada [82/36.6%/58%]
Caulfield 5-7 Illusionist [82/36.6%/58%]
Cheltenham 4-1 Bello Signor [25/20.0%/41%]
Kyneton 2-9 Summer Daze [141/39.0%/15%]
Kyneton 9-1 Final Sailing [24/37.5%/28%]
Rosehill 2-1 Goldlago [141/39.0%/15%]
Non-POOMA selections:
Belmont 7-4
Caulfield 1-3, 2-3, 2-6, 3-1, 3-6, 3-8, 4-3, 4-5, 6-3
Darwin 5-1
Rosehill 6-3
Note that the non-POOMA selections come from systems I'm trialling.
Not a bad result yesterday from the analysis. No time for comments this morning but I must admit that I'd be surprised if Due Sasso could win the Sir John Monash. If it does then you'll know I've missed the Melbourne quaddie!
Belmont 7-4 Danacolada [82/36.6%/58%]
Caulfield 5-7 Illusionist [82/36.6%/58%]
Cheltenham 4-1 Bello Signor [25/20.0%/41%]
Kyneton 2-9 Summer Daze [141/39.0%/15%]
Kyneton 9-1 Final Sailing [24/37.5%/28%]
Rosehill 2-1 Goldlago [141/39.0%/15%]
Non-POOMA selections:
Belmont 7-4
Caulfield 1-3, 2-3, 2-6, 3-1, 3-6, 3-8, 4-3, 4-5, 6-3
Darwin 5-1
Rosehill 6-3
Note that the non-POOMA selections come from systems I'm trialling.
Not a bad result yesterday from the analysis. No time for comments this morning but I must admit that I'd be surprised if Due Sasso could win the Sir John Monash. If it does then you'll know I've missed the Melbourne quaddie!
Friday, July 21, 2006
SELECTIONS - 21 July 2006
Track Race-TAB Horse [Live Selections/Win Strike Rate %/ Profit %]
Werribee 2-1 Accurate Gun [140/39.3%/15%]
Non-POOMA selections:
Donald 7-1, 8-6
Tamworth 7-4, 9-5
Townsville 8-2
Werribee 1-4, 3-3, 5-1
Right. Having picked ourselves up off from the floor after yesterday's, um, wide of the mark efforts we press ahead nevertheless. I don't know how I managed to leave Sesaro Road out of my Geelong quaddie but it cost me big time given it paid $16K.
The first at Townsville looks reasonably straightforward and a match race between 1-Hard Drivin' Mama and 3-Mr Pickwick. The former ran well last time in a stronger race and the latter has had two runs in NSW and we'll put him on top. 3-1 Digos is another first up in the region for the powerful Chillemi stable having had his 7 starts in NSW. He won first up at Kembla last time in by 4L and then ran well in town. As long as he arrived up there with all four legs he'll just win, probably be about $1.80 though.
Mack Griffith has 8-8 Positive Impact running at Tamworth today in what is the weakest race it's been in for a while. He's a good trainer so I'd watch that one. Other than that it's a pretty uninspiring day with 8-1 Wicked Wizard probably the best of them at Goulburn.
Werribee 2-1 Accurate Gun [140/39.3%/15%]
Non-POOMA selections:
Donald 7-1, 8-6
Tamworth 7-4, 9-5
Townsville 8-2
Werribee 1-4, 3-3, 5-1
Right. Having picked ourselves up off from the floor after yesterday's, um, wide of the mark efforts we press ahead nevertheless. I don't know how I managed to leave Sesaro Road out of my Geelong quaddie but it cost me big time given it paid $16K.
The first at Townsville looks reasonably straightforward and a match race between 1-Hard Drivin' Mama and 3-Mr Pickwick. The former ran well last time in a stronger race and the latter has had two runs in NSW and we'll put him on top. 3-1 Digos is another first up in the region for the powerful Chillemi stable having had his 7 starts in NSW. He won first up at Kembla last time in by 4L and then ran well in town. As long as he arrived up there with all four legs he'll just win, probably be about $1.80 though.
Mack Griffith has 8-8 Positive Impact running at Tamworth today in what is the weakest race it's been in for a while. He's a good trainer so I'd watch that one. Other than that it's a pretty uninspiring day with 8-1 Wicked Wizard probably the best of them at Goulburn.
Thursday, July 20, 2006
SELECTIONS - 20 July 2006
Track Race-TAB Horse [Live Selections/Win Strike Rate %/ Profit %]
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections:
Geelong 6-6, 8-13
Northam 1-9, 6-3, 7-7
Rockhampton 3-1
A pretty awful day yesterday but there look to be a couple of winners today starting with the Cyberhorse owned stayer at Geelong, 2-5 Phoenix. She really has shown that she's tough as evidenced by her last run in which she worked to the front, got taken on and headed, carted the field up to the leader, got headed and fought back to win. Other tips at Geelong are: 1-7, 3-9, 4-2, 5-1, 6-4, 7-7, 8-11
At Rocky, 3-1 Rin Tin looks the best of the day but I suspect he'll be about $1.80. For the card: 1-2, 2-1, 4-2, 5-2, 6-6, 7-5
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections:
Geelong 6-6, 8-13
Northam 1-9, 6-3, 7-7
Rockhampton 3-1
A pretty awful day yesterday but there look to be a couple of winners today starting with the Cyberhorse owned stayer at Geelong, 2-5 Phoenix. She really has shown that she's tough as evidenced by her last run in which she worked to the front, got taken on and headed, carted the field up to the leader, got headed and fought back to win. Other tips at Geelong are: 1-7, 3-9, 4-2, 5-1, 6-4, 7-7, 8-11
At Rocky, 3-1 Rin Tin looks the best of the day but I suspect he'll be about $1.80. For the card: 1-2, 2-1, 4-2, 5-2, 6-6, 7-5
Wednesday, July 19, 2006
SELECTIONS - 19 July 2006
Track Race-TAB Horse [Live Selections/Win Strike Rate %/ Profit %]
Canterbury 1-7 The Question [138/39.9%/17%]
Canterbury 5-1 Roll Over Rover [25/48.0%/26%]
Darwin 5-2 Catwalk Minnie [54/37.0%/16%]
Sandown 3-4 First World [138/39.9%/17%]
Sandown 4-3 Extreme Makeover [80/37.5%/62%]
Sandown 6-6 Stylish Sunset [80/37.5%/62%]
Non-POOMA selections:
Belmont 5-8, 8-9
Canterbury 1-4, 6-2
Darwin 1-2, 4-2, 6-10
Gawler 3-5
Ipswich 6-2
Sandown 5-4, 5-7, 7-3, 8-8
ISP has been down this morning so tips are a bit late and don't have time to do the analysis. A good day yesterday overall with some nice priced winners landing.
Canterbury 1-7 The Question [138/39.9%/17%]
Canterbury 5-1 Roll Over Rover [25/48.0%/26%]
Darwin 5-2 Catwalk Minnie [54/37.0%/16%]
Sandown 3-4 First World [138/39.9%/17%]
Sandown 4-3 Extreme Makeover [80/37.5%/62%]
Sandown 6-6 Stylish Sunset [80/37.5%/62%]
Non-POOMA selections:
Belmont 5-8, 8-9
Canterbury 1-4, 6-2
Darwin 1-2, 4-2, 6-10
Gawler 3-5
Ipswich 6-2
Sandown 5-4, 5-7, 7-3, 8-8
ISP has been down this morning so tips are a bit late and don't have time to do the analysis. A good day yesterday overall with some nice priced winners landing.
Tuesday, July 18, 2006
SELECTIONS - 18 July 2006
Track Race-TAB Horse [Live Selections/Win Strike Rate %/ Profit %]
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections:
Kilmore 1-12, 8-1, 10-12
Taree 1-2, 5-3
Race 1 at Kilmore looks like a bit of a trap race. At face value the 12-Stormpede looks the goods but its form is actually nothing to write home about. Ditto 11-Spanish Captain. 1-Abequito is by Octagonal so you wouldn't think it'd handle the conditions. 4-Elf was beaten a long way at its only start. Ditto 8-Our Causeway. 6-King Sudurka gets in with a claim and wasn't beaten far last time. I'll go for it to beat the first starter, 9-Right Note, who wouldn't need to be any good to be competitive here, and the two at the bottom. I'll pick out a few with a bit of a chance for the day: 2-10 Solique, 3-14 Clang Express, 4-6 Absorb, 5-8 Stormport, 6-2 Invictus, 7-1,2 (quinella), 9-4 Chu Chu Mama
I filled up in Taree once. I was driving my old CLK55 from the Gold Coast to Canberra and nearly ran out of petrol. Taree is a few kms down the road from the highway and, as I made the turn off, my fuel range indicator said my range was 0 km. Snuck into town on fumes. Then made it to Canberra with 3L left. 1200km on two 60L tanks; not bad for a 255kw V8. The lady at the Taree service station was nice. Other than that I can't tell you anything about the place - other than there's a meeting there today, though I did have a runner at Taree some years ago - a horse called Festino that I had with Mack Griffith at Scone. He made the 4.5hr drive to Taree with just our horse who was to run in a 1000m Class 5 or 6 race. He was favourite and looked the goods on form. The horse, however, had other ideas. He burrowed under the gate, smashed it off the stalls and disappeared down the track quicker than Roger chasing the ice cream truck when he was a kid. Mack wasn't very happy on that return journey.
1-2 Juma Rising looks like it'll kick the meeting off on a good note. Then we'll pick 2-4 Joe's Memory, 3-7 Investment Grade, 4-1 Space Academy, 6-1 Champion's League, 7-2 Have A Crownie, 8-8 Orpenaire, 9-1 Hole In One.
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections:
Kilmore 1-12, 8-1, 10-12
Taree 1-2, 5-3
Race 1 at Kilmore looks like a bit of a trap race. At face value the 12-Stormpede looks the goods but its form is actually nothing to write home about. Ditto 11-Spanish Captain. 1-Abequito is by Octagonal so you wouldn't think it'd handle the conditions. 4-Elf was beaten a long way at its only start. Ditto 8-Our Causeway. 6-King Sudurka gets in with a claim and wasn't beaten far last time. I'll go for it to beat the first starter, 9-Right Note, who wouldn't need to be any good to be competitive here, and the two at the bottom. I'll pick out a few with a bit of a chance for the day: 2-10 Solique, 3-14 Clang Express, 4-6 Absorb, 5-8 Stormport, 6-2 Invictus, 7-1,2 (quinella), 9-4 Chu Chu Mama
I filled up in Taree once. I was driving my old CLK55 from the Gold Coast to Canberra and nearly ran out of petrol. Taree is a few kms down the road from the highway and, as I made the turn off, my fuel range indicator said my range was 0 km. Snuck into town on fumes. Then made it to Canberra with 3L left. 1200km on two 60L tanks; not bad for a 255kw V8. The lady at the Taree service station was nice. Other than that I can't tell you anything about the place - other than there's a meeting there today, though I did have a runner at Taree some years ago - a horse called Festino that I had with Mack Griffith at Scone. He made the 4.5hr drive to Taree with just our horse who was to run in a 1000m Class 5 or 6 race. He was favourite and looked the goods on form. The horse, however, had other ideas. He burrowed under the gate, smashed it off the stalls and disappeared down the track quicker than Roger chasing the ice cream truck when he was a kid. Mack wasn't very happy on that return journey.
1-2 Juma Rising looks like it'll kick the meeting off on a good note. Then we'll pick 2-4 Joe's Memory, 3-7 Investment Grade, 4-1 Space Academy, 6-1 Champion's League, 7-2 Have A Crownie, 8-8 Orpenaire, 9-1 Hole In One.
Monday, July 17, 2006
SELECTIONS - 17 July 2006
Track Race-TAB Horse [Live Selections/Win Strike Rate %/ Profit %]
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections:
Moe 5-4, 6-4, 8-1
If you bet today then you are desperate. Or Roger.
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections:
Moe 5-4, 6-4, 8-1
If you bet today then you are desperate. Or Roger.
Sunday, July 16, 2006
SELECTIONS - 16 July 2006
Track Race-TAB Horse [Live Selections/Win Strike Rate %/ Profit %]
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections:
Grafton 2-15, 4-1, 5-4, 7-12
Hobart 2-7, 3-5, 7-5, 8-6, 9-5
Kalgoorlie 6-6
Mornington 6-2, 8-2
Mortlake 2-6, 2-13, 5-3, 8-1
Sunshine Coast 5-3
Track downgrades really mucked up yesterday as a viable punting proposition that killed off the chances of quite a few horses. Rosecutter showed that she has a lot of ability at Rosehill and at Moonee Valley the other riders gifted the race to Illusionist when they let her lead. Not that they could have beaten her, anyway, given the end result but some initiative might have been handy. We did manage to lob a $20 shot in the general selections and Maizy May ran a good race, paying $4 for the place. Today is a shocking looking day. Go and read a book.
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections:
Grafton 2-15, 4-1, 5-4, 7-12
Hobart 2-7, 3-5, 7-5, 8-6, 9-5
Kalgoorlie 6-6
Mornington 6-2, 8-2
Mortlake 2-6, 2-13, 5-3, 8-1
Sunshine Coast 5-3
Track downgrades really mucked up yesterday as a viable punting proposition that killed off the chances of quite a few horses. Rosecutter showed that she has a lot of ability at Rosehill and at Moonee Valley the other riders gifted the race to Illusionist when they let her lead. Not that they could have beaten her, anyway, given the end result but some initiative might have been handy. We did manage to lob a $20 shot in the general selections and Maizy May ran a good race, paying $4 for the place. Today is a shocking looking day. Go and read a book.
Saturday, July 15, 2006
SELECTIONS - 15 July 2006
Track Race-TAB Horse [Live Selections/Win Strike Rate %/ Profit %]
Belmont 1-3 Landspeed Cruiser [137/40.1%/18%]
Kembla 3-5 Flukepenny Princess [137/40.1%/18%]
Randwick 2-1 Litter [79/38.0%/64%]
Non-POOMA selections:
Belmont 5-7, 6-2, 8-7
Doomben 3-1, 4-1
Gold Coast 2-1
Horsham 4-4, 6-3, 7-10
Moonee Valley 2-5, 3-2, 5-9
Morphettville 8-4
Randwick 1-1, 1-6, 3-2, 3-6, 4-6, 4-9, 4-10, 7-2
Toowoomba 1-5, 2-3, 7-4
The POOMA got home yesterday, which continues the recovery we've been experiencing lately and Danny Williams got the predicted two winners at Canberra otherwise we were a bit off beam.
Starting the analysis with Moonee Valley - there's an enormous amount of speed in race 7 with numbers 3, 4, 5, 6 & 10 all pushing forward. Old Dandy Kid might have lost the dash required to win at 1000m and might find it tough. Amtrak is backing up from last week and drops in trip, I think he'll be outpaced. I expect 10-Beach Box to try and push up from gate 1 to lead, which he'll do until the corner at which point he'll drop out. Illusionist will probably be on his outside with Appian Way three deep on the turn. Whichever way it turns out, I think that Surprise Impact will be in the right spot to win the race, as he'll be camped right behind Illusionist. That mare won nicely as a POOMA last start and is going to start pretty short here. The difference between her previous 1000m wins and this race is that there's much more early pressure here than she's faced before. The whole meeting is quite open with nothing really standing out to me as a special.
Randwick is a bit of a trap meeting, as there are horses coming off big wins on heavy tracks and that form is always suspect. 3-6 Rosecutter is listed as a $2.80 favourite overnight but I'd suggest if you can get that then you're getting nearly $1 worth of value. Admittedly, she is coming out of a F&M race but her last start win was terrific. Drawing 14 of 14, Beadman settled her last, a position she still had to herself turning into the short Canterbury straight. However, a couple of slaps with the whip saw her demolish her opposition cruising to the line nearly 4L clear of the runner up. Average horses can't do that sort of thing.
If you can finish in front at Doomben then you'll be doing well. 3-5 Plachutta is listed at $9 overnight and she's drawn to get a perfect run. Looks a terrific e/w chance. Mandy Radecker gets back on board 5-9 Maizy May and with just 50.5kg this on pace runner will give a bold sight e/w.
Very good Canberra trainer, Matthew Dale (long term strike rate 22%), has taken Moorings On Parade to Kembla Grange for race 1. This filly was backed 3/1 into 10/9 at her first start when 4th to the very smart Throne Inn at Canberra. She then won her maiden nicely and started 15/1 in the Black Opal in which she finished 11th after drawing off the track. Ken Callaughan from Goulburn has 7-Xaartrick in the same race and he's quite smart also.
Peter Moody has Fukutsu in the first at Morphettville. Dunno how it goes but I wonder how the name snuck through. The meeting there looks awful.
Belmont 1-3 Landspeed Cruiser [137/40.1%/18%]
Kembla 3-5 Flukepenny Princess [137/40.1%/18%]
Randwick 2-1 Litter [79/38.0%/64%]
Non-POOMA selections:
Belmont 5-7, 6-2, 8-7
Doomben 3-1, 4-1
Gold Coast 2-1
Horsham 4-4, 6-3, 7-10
Moonee Valley 2-5, 3-2, 5-9
Morphettville 8-4
Randwick 1-1, 1-6, 3-2, 3-6, 4-6, 4-9, 4-10, 7-2
Toowoomba 1-5, 2-3, 7-4
The POOMA got home yesterday, which continues the recovery we've been experiencing lately and Danny Williams got the predicted two winners at Canberra otherwise we were a bit off beam.
Starting the analysis with Moonee Valley - there's an enormous amount of speed in race 7 with numbers 3, 4, 5, 6 & 10 all pushing forward. Old Dandy Kid might have lost the dash required to win at 1000m and might find it tough. Amtrak is backing up from last week and drops in trip, I think he'll be outpaced. I expect 10-Beach Box to try and push up from gate 1 to lead, which he'll do until the corner at which point he'll drop out. Illusionist will probably be on his outside with Appian Way three deep on the turn. Whichever way it turns out, I think that Surprise Impact will be in the right spot to win the race, as he'll be camped right behind Illusionist. That mare won nicely as a POOMA last start and is going to start pretty short here. The difference between her previous 1000m wins and this race is that there's much more early pressure here than she's faced before. The whole meeting is quite open with nothing really standing out to me as a special.
Randwick is a bit of a trap meeting, as there are horses coming off big wins on heavy tracks and that form is always suspect. 3-6 Rosecutter is listed as a $2.80 favourite overnight but I'd suggest if you can get that then you're getting nearly $1 worth of value. Admittedly, she is coming out of a F&M race but her last start win was terrific. Drawing 14 of 14, Beadman settled her last, a position she still had to herself turning into the short Canterbury straight. However, a couple of slaps with the whip saw her demolish her opposition cruising to the line nearly 4L clear of the runner up. Average horses can't do that sort of thing.
If you can finish in front at Doomben then you'll be doing well. 3-5 Plachutta is listed at $9 overnight and she's drawn to get a perfect run. Looks a terrific e/w chance. Mandy Radecker gets back on board 5-9 Maizy May and with just 50.5kg this on pace runner will give a bold sight e/w.
Very good Canberra trainer, Matthew Dale (long term strike rate 22%), has taken Moorings On Parade to Kembla Grange for race 1. This filly was backed 3/1 into 10/9 at her first start when 4th to the very smart Throne Inn at Canberra. She then won her maiden nicely and started 15/1 in the Black Opal in which she finished 11th after drawing off the track. Ken Callaughan from Goulburn has 7-Xaartrick in the same race and he's quite smart also.
Peter Moody has Fukutsu in the first at Morphettville. Dunno how it goes but I wonder how the name snuck through. The meeting there looks awful.
Friday, July 14, 2006
SELECTIONS - 14 July 2006
Track Race-TAB Horse [Live Selections/Win Strike Rate %/ Profit %]
Rockhampton 6-4 Craiglea Emma [36/47.2%/23%]
Non-POOMA selections:
Bathurst 1-3, 6-5, 8-1
Benalla 6-2
Canberra 1-9, 4-1, 5-3, 6-1, 6-4, 7-7, 8-6, 9-3, 10-10
Rockhampton 5-5, 7-8
A solid 7.5/10 for yesterday's analysis. We started with the predicted quinella at Ipswich and finished with a $10 shot in the last at Grafton. My mate picked up the quaddie there, which rounded things out, as I'd picked up the Ballarat and Ipswich quaddies. At Ballarat things went awry in the first couple of races with the shorties going down however I'd definitely be following up on both of them. In the first, World Joy is still looking for a clear run and was the best thing beaten I've seen in a long time. In the second, Oli did everything but pick Had A Ball up and carry it but the first starter from the Mick Kent yard, Count The Cost, sailed down the outside to win. It might be quite smart. Talking of smart, the winner of the last at Ballarat certainly seems to fit into that category. Looking under pressure on the turn, Illustration really picked up the bit in the straight to win softly with Oli only putting the odd slap on it to keep his mind on the job. From the 'Rogerson' camp he reminds me of a horse like Perlin and is up to better races.
On to today's meetings. In race 5 at Benalla, 3-Favorite Idol seems to be pretty well placed here. He didn't have much luck last time and, being by Favorite Trick, he'll be suited by the step up to 1400m. The other races there look tough but don't leave 8-12 Dolligreen out of multiples, as she's back in grade. The synthetic track in Canberra (called the Acton track) has performed very well and I'm sure you'll see more of them built over the course of the next 10 years. Goulburn based trainer, Danny Williams, looks in for a good day and he could start well in race 2 with 10-Power Of The Rose. In race 5, 1-Fox Lake is good enough to carry the grandstand and still win. 6-1 Crosswire was the biggest tip since Fine Cotton and could have carried my mate Rog and still won. It went to the post under a full nelson last time and won by 7.5L so you'd think a repeat performance would be on the cards today. In race 7, 3-Tiger John won here two starts back before running 2nd at Kembla Grange. Danny should get at least a double and could end up with a treble. In race 5, 3-Armaday must be a fair chance for Barb Joseph, as he's coming back to the short course this time. At Rocky, 6-5 Excitum has had a pipe opener up there after moving north from Victoria so I'd be watching any market moves for it.
Rockhampton 6-4 Craiglea Emma [36/47.2%/23%]
Non-POOMA selections:
Bathurst 1-3, 6-5, 8-1
Benalla 6-2
Canberra 1-9, 4-1, 5-3, 6-1, 6-4, 7-7, 8-6, 9-3, 10-10
Rockhampton 5-5, 7-8
A solid 7.5/10 for yesterday's analysis. We started with the predicted quinella at Ipswich and finished with a $10 shot in the last at Grafton. My mate picked up the quaddie there, which rounded things out, as I'd picked up the Ballarat and Ipswich quaddies. At Ballarat things went awry in the first couple of races with the shorties going down however I'd definitely be following up on both of them. In the first, World Joy is still looking for a clear run and was the best thing beaten I've seen in a long time. In the second, Oli did everything but pick Had A Ball up and carry it but the first starter from the Mick Kent yard, Count The Cost, sailed down the outside to win. It might be quite smart. Talking of smart, the winner of the last at Ballarat certainly seems to fit into that category. Looking under pressure on the turn, Illustration really picked up the bit in the straight to win softly with Oli only putting the odd slap on it to keep his mind on the job. From the 'Rogerson' camp he reminds me of a horse like Perlin and is up to better races.
On to today's meetings. In race 5 at Benalla, 3-Favorite Idol seems to be pretty well placed here. He didn't have much luck last time and, being by Favorite Trick, he'll be suited by the step up to 1400m. The other races there look tough but don't leave 8-12 Dolligreen out of multiples, as she's back in grade. The synthetic track in Canberra (called the Acton track) has performed very well and I'm sure you'll see more of them built over the course of the next 10 years. Goulburn based trainer, Danny Williams, looks in for a good day and he could start well in race 2 with 10-Power Of The Rose. In race 5, 1-Fox Lake is good enough to carry the grandstand and still win. 6-1 Crosswire was the biggest tip since Fine Cotton and could have carried my mate Rog and still won. It went to the post under a full nelson last time and won by 7.5L so you'd think a repeat performance would be on the cards today. In race 7, 3-Tiger John won here two starts back before running 2nd at Kembla Grange. Danny should get at least a double and could end up with a treble. In race 5, 3-Armaday must be a fair chance for Barb Joseph, as he's coming back to the short course this time. At Rocky, 6-5 Excitum has had a pipe opener up there after moving north from Victoria so I'd be watching any market moves for it.
Thursday, July 13, 2006
SELECTIONS - 13 July 2006
Track Race-TAB Horse [Live Selections/Win Strike Rate %/ Profit %]
Grafton 5-12 Deejay's Girl [29/48.3%/49%]
Non-POOMA selections:
Ballarat 2-8
Grafton 4-9, 8-1
Ipswich 1-1
Northam 1-8, 5-5, 7-13, 8-3
0/10 for my jumps analysis yesterday. The runner up was the first horse to come out of the 4000m+ jumps races and run well, which is why I'd gone around it.
Today's POOMA, Deejay's Girl, will start at good each way odds and I'm sure she'll run well after her powerful Maiden win here first up last start. The last 6 winners of the Grafton Cup have been weighted between 0 and 1kg over the limit weight. However, in today's race that only knocks out Verb! It looks to me as though 15-Sir Coup has been set for this race and he'll be nice odds, also. Look for him to be charging late. I'll take him to beat 2,6,10,13,14 & 16. The last leg of the Grafton quaddie looks a lottery with good horses first up (and with good first up records). 10-Langfibian looks really nicely placed here at the weights and from the inside marble. She's had a freshen up and I'll take her as a roving trifecta banker to beat a heap of others (don't leave out the bottom two).
At Ballarat, David Hayes has 8-Had A Ball resuming in race 2. If he runs up to his first start then you'd think he'd win by from here to over the road. Is listed at $2.80 early but I'd be surprised to see anything more than about $2.00-$2.20. 13-World Joy is in the same category in race 1 for Danny O'Brien. You're on your own in the quaddie there (Utah Red might be a hope in the last race).
Ipswich is a terrific track to bet at. It's nearly Queensland metro class and the form holds up when they go to town. One A E Baliey, Esq, has a remarkable record at Ipswich (as he does most places) over the last six and a half years with 117/486 = 24% strike rate and he has some good chances today. In race 6, 1-Crystal Prince is new to his stable and you'd expect a good run fresh and in race 8, 7-So Chic looks really well placed. Another trainer that seem to go very well at Ipswich is Shaun Dwyer. 8-Shipsyn might be a quinella chance with Pure Angel in race 1 and I'd be watching his runners in the last race, as well, especially La Danske, which is new to the stable.
Grafton 5-12 Deejay's Girl [29/48.3%/49%]
Non-POOMA selections:
Ballarat 2-8
Grafton 4-9, 8-1
Ipswich 1-1
Northam 1-8, 5-5, 7-13, 8-3
0/10 for my jumps analysis yesterday. The runner up was the first horse to come out of the 4000m+ jumps races and run well, which is why I'd gone around it.
Today's POOMA, Deejay's Girl, will start at good each way odds and I'm sure she'll run well after her powerful Maiden win here first up last start. The last 6 winners of the Grafton Cup have been weighted between 0 and 1kg over the limit weight. However, in today's race that only knocks out Verb! It looks to me as though 15-Sir Coup has been set for this race and he'll be nice odds, also. Look for him to be charging late. I'll take him to beat 2,6,10,13,14 & 16. The last leg of the Grafton quaddie looks a lottery with good horses first up (and with good first up records). 10-Langfibian looks really nicely placed here at the weights and from the inside marble. She's had a freshen up and I'll take her as a roving trifecta banker to beat a heap of others (don't leave out the bottom two).
At Ballarat, David Hayes has 8-Had A Ball resuming in race 2. If he runs up to his first start then you'd think he'd win by from here to over the road. Is listed at $2.80 early but I'd be surprised to see anything more than about $2.00-$2.20. 13-World Joy is in the same category in race 1 for Danny O'Brien. You're on your own in the quaddie there (Utah Red might be a hope in the last race).
Ipswich is a terrific track to bet at. It's nearly Queensland metro class and the form holds up when they go to town. One A E Baliey, Esq, has a remarkable record at Ipswich (as he does most places) over the last six and a half years with 117/486 = 24% strike rate and he has some good chances today. In race 6, 1-Crystal Prince is new to his stable and you'd expect a good run fresh and in race 8, 7-So Chic looks really well placed. Another trainer that seem to go very well at Ipswich is Shaun Dwyer. 8-Shipsyn might be a quinella chance with Pure Angel in race 1 and I'd be watching his runners in the last race, as well, especially La Danske, which is new to the stable.
Wednesday, July 12, 2006
SELECTIONS - 12 July 2006
Track Race-TAB Horse [Live Selections/Win Strike Rate %/ Profit %]
Grafton 8-2 Frisco's Vision [78/38.5%/66%]
Non-POOMA selections:
Belmont 2-6, 5-2, 7-4
Canterbury 1-5, 2-4, 2-7, 3-4, 3-11, 6-4
Eagle Farm 6-11
Grafton 2-10
Sandown 1-1, 4-4, 4-5, 6-3, 8-4
I give myself 6.5/10 for yesterday's analysis. Non-POOMAs were profitable and we nearly got a $14 shot home at Townsville from the other three I mentioned up there. In the first at Sandown today it looks like 1, 2, 5 & 7 are the only chances. The topweight is the best jumper in the race and will be handy odds so I'll have something e/w on him.
Grafton 8-2 Frisco's Vision [78/38.5%/66%]
Non-POOMA selections:
Belmont 2-6, 5-2, 7-4
Canterbury 1-5, 2-4, 2-7, 3-4, 3-11, 6-4
Eagle Farm 6-11
Grafton 2-10
Sandown 1-1, 4-4, 4-5, 6-3, 8-4
I give myself 6.5/10 for yesterday's analysis. Non-POOMAs were profitable and we nearly got a $14 shot home at Townsville from the other three I mentioned up there. In the first at Sandown today it looks like 1, 2, 5 & 7 are the only chances. The topweight is the best jumper in the race and will be handy odds so I'll have something e/w on him.
Tuesday, July 11, 2006
SELECTIONS - 11 July 2006
Track Race-TAB Horse [Live Selections/Win Strike Rate %/ Profit %]
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections:
Randwick 3-1, 4-9, 6-4, 7-6
Townsville 1-1, 3-2, 5-4, 6-2, 9-4
Warrnambool 8-2
It's not mentioned in the selections above but I think that Randwick 1-1 Roll Over Rover will go close today. It'll probably be on the 3rd line of betting behind Crique and Federal Reserve so in the order of $4.50, which is good value. It finished begind Federal Reserve last time but wasn't well handled and I'm tipping it will improve for Larry Cassidy. In race 3 there, Prince Of Truth steps up from 1100m to 1550m but it's by Carnegie out of Pravda so you'd think the step up in trip could be right up his alley. The rest don't look outstanding and, if it runs up to its breeding then it could put a gap on them.
At Warrnambool I expect 5-5 Master Yo Yo to notch up a win for Darren Weir. The selection above, 8-2 Beech Hurst, is by General Nediym and they're typically quite poor on slow/heavy ground.
Horses that come out of NSW or Victoria and end up at Townsville, Rocky, Mackay etc tend to be given one run as a 'sighter' to tune them up for their second up run. Watch out for 3-13 Melia, 4-4 Hard Drivin' Mama and 5-1 Happy Viking at Townsville today. Hard Drivin' Mama started 5/2 in a $12K 3YO Class 3 last time and steps out in an open age $7K Class 1, which is actually a slight drop back in grade (normally an open age Class 1 is similar in class to a 3YO Class 6 race). Happy Viking was fist up for a year at Mackay last time on a heavy track in a stronger Class 2 race. He was backed from 12/1 into 7/1 and was beaten less than 6 lengths. He'll probably be each way odds today and is in the 'where there's smoke there's fire category'.
PS - My analysis of the two races yesterday was spot on. Let's see how good I am today!
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections:
Randwick 3-1, 4-9, 6-4, 7-6
Townsville 1-1, 3-2, 5-4, 6-2, 9-4
Warrnambool 8-2
It's not mentioned in the selections above but I think that Randwick 1-1 Roll Over Rover will go close today. It'll probably be on the 3rd line of betting behind Crique and Federal Reserve so in the order of $4.50, which is good value. It finished begind Federal Reserve last time but wasn't well handled and I'm tipping it will improve for Larry Cassidy. In race 3 there, Prince Of Truth steps up from 1100m to 1550m but it's by Carnegie out of Pravda so you'd think the step up in trip could be right up his alley. The rest don't look outstanding and, if it runs up to its breeding then it could put a gap on them.
At Warrnambool I expect 5-5 Master Yo Yo to notch up a win for Darren Weir. The selection above, 8-2 Beech Hurst, is by General Nediym and they're typically quite poor on slow/heavy ground.
Horses that come out of NSW or Victoria and end up at Townsville, Rocky, Mackay etc tend to be given one run as a 'sighter' to tune them up for their second up run. Watch out for 3-13 Melia, 4-4 Hard Drivin' Mama and 5-1 Happy Viking at Townsville today. Hard Drivin' Mama started 5/2 in a $12K 3YO Class 3 last time and steps out in an open age $7K Class 1, which is actually a slight drop back in grade (normally an open age Class 1 is similar in class to a 3YO Class 6 race). Happy Viking was fist up for a year at Mackay last time on a heavy track in a stronger Class 2 race. He was backed from 12/1 into 7/1 and was beaten less than 6 lengths. He'll probably be each way odds today and is in the 'where there's smoke there's fire category'.
PS - My analysis of the two races yesterday was spot on. Let's see how good I am today!
Monday, July 10, 2006
SELECTIONS - 10 July 2006
Track Race-TAB Horse [Live Selections/Win Strike Rate %/ Profit %]
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections:
Sale 2-1, 6-2
Accurate Gun is down about a trillion grades on what it has been running around in. Its four starts have all been in races worth $100K+. If it can't win here then it needs to go to Townsville (or, perhaps, Birdsville). Prince Of Ruffy will settle handy along with Endower. They should set a slow pace and be a chance of running 1-2.
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections:
Sale 2-1, 6-2
Accurate Gun is down about a trillion grades on what it has been running around in. Its four starts have all been in races worth $100K+. If it can't win here then it needs to go to Townsville (or, perhaps, Birdsville). Prince Of Ruffy will settle handy along with Endower. They should set a slow pace and be a chance of running 1-2.
Sunday, July 09, 2006
SELECTIONS - 9 July 2006
Track Race-TAB Horse [Live Selections/Win Strike Rate %/ Profit %]
Mildura 6-3 Brookton Flash [30/46.7%/55%]
Non-POOMA selections:
Bendigo 1-2, 2-7, 3-1, 9-6
Dubbo 4-4
Grafton 1-11, 5-5
Kalgoorlie 1-1, 3-8, 5-3
Launceston 2-4, 2-11
Mildura 1-6, 4-2, 4-3, 5-7, 6-3
Port Augusta 1-1, 2-1, 6-3
Mildura 6-3 Brookton Flash [30/46.7%/55%]
Non-POOMA selections:
Bendigo 1-2, 2-7, 3-1, 9-6
Dubbo 4-4
Grafton 1-11, 5-5
Kalgoorlie 1-1, 3-8, 5-3
Launceston 2-4, 2-11
Mildura 1-6, 4-2, 4-3, 5-7, 6-3
Port Augusta 1-1, 2-1, 6-3
Saturday, July 08, 2006
SELECTIONS - 8 July 2006
Track Race-TAB Horse [Live Selections/Win Strike Rate %/ Profit %]
Belmont 5-1 Kim Invader [28/46.4%/46%]
Non-POOMA selections:
Belmont 1-7, 3-6, 4-1, 5-8, 7-6, 8-6
Eagle Farm 5-10
Flemington 2-4, 2-7, 4-2, 5-1, 6-2, 7-2
Geelong 1-3, 5-1
Gold Coast 3-3, 5-9
Morphettville 2-4, 6-3
Newcastle 1-2, 2-2, 5-2, 8-3
Randwick 1-1, 4-1, 4-2, 6-6, 7-2, 7-6
Toowoomba 1-7, 2-11, 3-2, 4-7, 6-3
Belmont 5-1 Kim Invader [28/46.4%/46%]
Non-POOMA selections:
Belmont 1-7, 3-6, 4-1, 5-8, 7-6, 8-6
Eagle Farm 5-10
Flemington 2-4, 2-7, 4-2, 5-1, 6-2, 7-2
Geelong 1-3, 5-1
Gold Coast 3-3, 5-9
Morphettville 2-4, 6-3
Newcastle 1-2, 2-2, 5-2, 8-3
Randwick 1-1, 4-1, 4-2, 6-6, 7-2, 7-6
Toowoomba 1-7, 2-11, 3-2, 4-7, 6-3
Friday, July 07, 2006
SELECTIONS - 7 July 2006
Track Race-TAB Horse [Live Selections/Win Strike Rate %/ Profit %]
Seymour 2-5 Jesterchine [136/39.7%/17%]
Seymour 8-2 Pie Oh My [29/44.8%/54%]
Non-POOMA selections:
Ipswich 5-4, 6-13, 8-6
Moree 4-1
Seymour 3-10
Seymour 2-5 Jesterchine [136/39.7%/17%]
Seymour 8-2 Pie Oh My [29/44.8%/54%]
Non-POOMA selections:
Ipswich 5-4, 6-13, 8-6
Moree 4-1
Seymour 3-10
Thursday, July 06, 2006
SELECTIONS - 6 July 2006
Track Race-TAB Horse [Live Selections/Win Strike Rate %/ Profit %]
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections:
Cranbourne 6-2, 8-9
Grafton 4-3, 9-14
Hawkesbury 6-1, 8-7
Mackay 5-10, 6-1
Murray Bridge 5-1
Northam 4-4, 7-2
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections:
Cranbourne 6-2, 8-9
Grafton 4-3, 9-14
Hawkesbury 6-1, 8-7
Mackay 5-10, 6-1
Murray Bridge 5-1
Northam 4-4, 7-2
Wednesday, July 05, 2006
SELECTIONS - 5 July 2006
Track Race-TAB Horse [Live Selections/Win Strike Rate %/ Profit %]
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections:
Belmont 6-4
Doomben 3-11, 4-3
Sandown 2-4, 3-2, 7-5, 8-4
Warwick Farm 1-2, 2-4, 3-1, 4-3, 6-4
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections:
Belmont 6-4
Doomben 3-11, 4-3
Sandown 2-4, 3-2, 7-5, 8-4
Warwick Farm 1-2, 2-4, 3-1, 4-3, 6-4
Tuesday, July 04, 2006
SELECTIONS - 4 July 2006
Track Race-TAB Horse [Live Selections/Win Strike Rate %/ Profit %]
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections:
Donald 10-9
Nice to see a $20 pop land yesterday in the general selections
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections:
Donald 10-9
Nice to see a $20 pop land yesterday in the general selections
Monday, July 03, 2006
SELECTIONS - 3 July 2006
Track Race-TAB Horse [Live Selections/Win Strike Rate %/ Profit %]
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections:
Bairnsdale 1-1, 2-3, 8-8
Moruya 2-10, 4-2
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections:
Bairnsdale 1-1, 2-3, 8-8
Moruya 2-10, 4-2
Sunday, July 02, 2006
SELECTIONS - 2 July 2006
Track Race-TAB Horse [Live Selections/Win Strike Rate %/ Profit %]
Hamilton 1-6 The Larkin [22/22.7%/60%]
Hamilton 2-1 Ayrfordman [22/22.7%/60%]
Hamilton 3-1 Run Albert Run [133/39.1%/14%]
Kalgoorlie 6-1 Wit And Wisdom [28/42.9%/45%]
Werribee 1-5 Differ [133/39.1%/14%]
Non-POOMA selections:
Hamilton 5-1, 5-10, 5-12
Hobart 4-1, 4-7, 9-7
Kalgoorlie 3-5
Sunshine Coast 3-8, 5-14, 8-11
Werribee 8-5
Hamilton 1-6 The Larkin [22/22.7%/60%]
Hamilton 2-1 Ayrfordman [22/22.7%/60%]
Hamilton 3-1 Run Albert Run [133/39.1%/14%]
Kalgoorlie 6-1 Wit And Wisdom [28/42.9%/45%]
Werribee 1-5 Differ [133/39.1%/14%]
Non-POOMA selections:
Hamilton 5-1, 5-10, 5-12
Hobart 4-1, 4-7, 9-7
Kalgoorlie 3-5
Sunshine Coast 3-8, 5-14, 8-11
Werribee 8-5
Saturday, July 01, 2006
SELECTIONS - 1 July 2006
Track Race-TAB Horse [Live Selections/Win Strike Rate %/ Profit %]
Flemington 6-8 High Costalana [46/34.8%/81%]
Non-POOMA selections:
Belmont 1-5, 2-3
Cheltenham 1-7, 8-4, 8-8
Flemington 2-4, 8-14
Gold Coast 6-6
Kembla 2-2
Mornington 6-3, 7-5
Rosehill 8-3
Sunshine Coast 7-4
Toowoomba 1-9, 2-7, 3-10, 4-7
Flemington 6-8 High Costalana [46/34.8%/81%]
Non-POOMA selections:
Belmont 1-5, 2-3
Cheltenham 1-7, 8-4, 8-8
Flemington 2-4, 8-14
Gold Coast 6-6
Kembla 2-2
Mornington 6-3, 7-5
Rosehill 8-3
Sunshine Coast 7-4
Toowoomba 1-9, 2-7, 3-10, 4-7
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