SELECTIONS - 31 October 2005

The criteria for October will be a modification of the previous qualification process. It will still be profitable systems with a minimum of 10 live selections and acceptable Chi-Squared figures but I've added in a couple of more stringent tests to weed out underperforming systems more quickly. You'll see the performance for the selections in the form of a set of numbers laid out as [Live Selections/Strike Rate%/POT%] that let you know how they're going.

Hamilton 3-8 Regal Rapt [18/38.9%/157%]

SELECTIONS - 30 October 2005

The criteria for October will be a modification of the previous qualification process. It will still be profitable systems with a minimum of 10 live selections and acceptable Chi-Squared figures but I've added in a couple of more stringent tests to weed out underperforming systems more quickly. You'll see the performance for the selections in the form of a set of numbers laid out as [Live Selections/Strike Rate%/POT%] that let you know how they're going.

Colac 4-1 Dingle Bay [15/46.9%/209%]
Mornington 6-9 Besoora [15/46.9%/209%]
Mornington 10-4 Belzain [15/46.9%/209%]

Ruffies at Hobart: 3-2, 3-3, 3-5; 5-4, 5-8

SELECTIONS - 29 October 2005

The criteria for October will be a modification of the previous qualification process. It will still be profitable systems with a minimum of 10 live selections and acceptable Chi-Squared figures but I've added in a couple of more stringent tests to weed out underperforming systems more quickly. You'll see the performance for the selections in the form of a set of numbers laid out as [Live Selections/Strike Rate%/POT%] that let you know how they're going.

Flemington 1-3 Testafiable [10/40.0%/104%]
Flemington 2-3 Ferocity [10/40.0%/104%]
Flemington 3-4 Mr Celebrity [15/60.0%/171%]
Flemington 4-1 Serenade Rose [10/40.0%/104%]
Flemington 8-9 Black Ink [15/60.0%/171%]
Flemington 9-12 Eltonjon [10/60.0%/104%]
Gold Coast 5-2 Cigallo [22/45.5%/22%]
Traralgon 6-1 Bellas Bro [10/40.0%/104%]

My personal picks for all Melbourne races:

1-8
2-1
3-6
4-1
5-1
6-1
7-10 (4th time lucky!)
8-5
9-8

SELECTIONS - 28 October 2005

The criteria for October will be a modification of the previous qualification process. It will still be profitable systems with a minimum of 10 live selections and acceptable Chi-Squared figures but I've added in a couple of more stringent tests to weed out underperforming systems more quickly. You'll see the performance for the selections in the form of a set of numbers laid out as [Live Selections/Strike Rate%/POT%] that let you know how they're going.

Moonee Valley 3-2 Zigotto [42/45.2%/61%]
Moonee Valley 7-2 Byway [14/57.1%/163%]

Chances to: Ararat 7-1, 7-8; Toowoomba 7-5 (quinella 7).

SELECTIONS - 27 October 2005

The criteria for October will be a modification of the previous qualification process. It will still be profitable systems with a minimum of 10 live selections and acceptable Chi-Squared figures but I've added in a couple of more stringent tests to weed out underperforming systems more quickly. You'll see the performance for the selections in the form of a set of numbers laid out as [Live Selections/Strike Rate%/POT%] that let you know how they're going.

Seymour 7-8 It's Delovely [16/37.5%/11%]

Selections are posted early. I'll update at around 1PM if I get a chance and there are any changes. *UPDATED*

Ruffies at Wagga: 1-2, 5-2

SELECTIONS - 26 October 2005

The criteria for October will be a modification of the previous qualification process. It will still be profitable systems with a minimum of 10 live selections and acceptable Chi-Squared figures but I've added in a couple of more stringent tests to weed out underperforming systems more quickly. You'll see the performance for the selections in the form of a set of numbers laid out as [Live Selections/Strike Rate%/POT%] that let you know how they're going.

Eagle Farm 7-8 Stalwart Queen [22/36.4%/172%]
Werribee 1-2 Utility [11/54.5%/94%]
Werribee 5-2 Gallantree [11/54.5%/94%]
Werribee 9-2 High Academy [11/54.5%/94%]

Ruffies at Eagle Farm 2-13, Werribee 3-5, 3-12

I think that Pure Silence will win the Werribee Cup.

SELECTIONS - 25 October 2005

The criteria for October will be a modification of the previous qualification process. It will still be profitable systems with a minimum of 10 live selections and acceptable Chi-Squared figures but I've added in a couple of more stringent tests to weed out underperforming systems more quickly. You'll see the performance for the selections in the form of a set of numbers laid out as [Live Selections/Strike Rate%/POT%] that let you know how they're going.

There are no POOMA selections today.

Ruffies at Kilmore: 3-7; Rockhampton 5-12. One of the two got up yesterday and paid $16.

SELECTIONS - 24 October 2005

The criteria for October will be a modification of the previous qualification process. It will still be profitable systems with a minimum of 10 live selections and acceptable Chi-Squared figures but I've added in a couple of more stringent tests to weed out underperforming systems more quickly. You'll see the performance for the selections in the form of a set of numbers laid out as [Live Selections/Strike Rate%/POT%] that let you know how they're going.

Lismore 7-5 Our Royal Star [45/37.8%/13%]

Ruffies at Lismore: 4-6, 4-9.

2005 COX PLATE - REVIEW

Now that the MV dust has settled or, more accurately, the mud has dried out, it's time to review Australia's premier quality horse race and try and line up where the performance fits in the pantheon of Cox Plate triumphs.

The clear winners on the day were the great mare, Makybe Diva, and the millions of people who were cheering for her. Biggest losers were the bookies...and I won't be breaking out the tissues for them any time soon!

Makybe Diva continues to amaze me. How is it that a 7YO mare can be so dominant when two years ago, when she should have been at her peak, she wasn't? Clearly, the transfer from David Hall (who is now training in Hong Kong) to Lee Freedman has worked wonders. She now possesses a breathtaking turn of foot that she never used to, which carries her to victory as she sweeps home from the back of the pack. Courtesy of two Melbourne Cups, a Cox Plate, an Australian Cup and a BMW - not forgetting a Sydney Cup - she is now Australasia's leading prizemoney winner.

And doesn't that Tony Santic look like he's having a good time? I don't know what pact he's made with the Devil to get it to rain nearly every time she steps out for a big race but it's obviously working for him. On that point, her dry track record makes impressive reading, too. She annexed the Sydney Cup and Australian Cup with nary a cloud in sight.

Lotteria was brave in running 2nd. People have generally underestimated this mare mainly, I think, because they're too busy bagging Gai Waterhouse rather than understanding how great a trainer she actually is. She was my top pick, as I thought she'd have the run of the race, which she did, and I wondered whether Makybe Diva would get into a traffic jam. Punting is all about the money and I'll take my $8.50 the place Lotteria vs the $2.10/$1.40 you got from backing the winner any day of the week.

And isn't Fields Of Omagh an amazing old horse? He's run in four Cox Plates for a 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 5th. He's owned by the No Big Deal syndicate, which is managed by (crap) racecaller, Bryan Martin. I'd suggest that the $4M+ prizemoney belies the syndicate name.

So onto an analysis of the strength of the race. Gotta be some controversy somewhere!

Objectivity is not something that most punters have. An inability to assess, unemotionally, a horse's performance is why bookies will always drive Mercedes and BMWs. We see it in the ridiculous running down of Sunline's performances and the massive over-estimation of Might And Power as anything other than a high class front-running stayer. Which reminds me, I should post the analysis I did a while back on why M&P's Cox Plate was the weakest for years...

Basically, the field for the 2005 Cox Plate was very ordinary indeed. The fact that a 7YO mare could start so short, beat another mare who had never won past a mile, with an 8YO third and another mare, Sky Cuddle, who also had never won past a mile, in 4th spot really puts things in perspective. People were seriously giving chances to non-G1 winners, Lad Of The Manor (a 6YO) and Confectioner. The fact they ran 5th and 6th underlines my point. Can you imagine what the four or five year old Sunline would have done out there on Saturday? It would have been a procession. Northerly would have toyed with them, too. Where are the top class 4YOs? Xcellent came into the race with strong credentials but his chance got killed off with the rain. The only other 4YOs were Outback Prince (2nd last) and Lotteria.

As I said, objectivity is the key. Makybe Diva's performance was terrific and will live in the memory long past when people can remember who she beat.

And being objective, if she goes to the Melbourne Cup then she probably races against a stronger field with the likes of Railings, Vinnie Roe, Leica Falcon, Eye Popper and Mr Celebrity not to mention others to contend with. Let's all hope that connections turn up on the 1st Tuesday in November complete with red, white and blue eye masks to watch their mighty mare start favourite and go for an unprecedented 3rd win in the race.

By the way. You'd have been pretty chuffed yesterday if you owned the mare, Terrestial. Not. She's the dam of both Outback Prince and Hotel Grand. They finished 2nd last and last respectively.

Why the '98 Cox Plate was the weakest for years

Waaaay back in September 2002 debate was raging on the Ausrace racing forum over the merits of Sunline's performances, the quality of her opposition and whatnot. Bizarrely, the people who pot Sunline then call Might And Power a champion in spite of his inferior record. As you'll always hear me say - objectivity is a key ingredient to making a success of the game called punting. People called Lonhro a champion. I didn't...but, gee, I won a lot of money on him, as I did on another non-champion, Might And Power. It was really clear when they were going to win and when they were up against it.

The following is an email I sent to Ausrace outlining the relative strengths of the 1998-2001 Cox Plate fields. The Sunline-potters, ill-led by The Red Baron, Pete, were using the loss to Fairway to denegrate her in their typically unobjective manner, which is what the email is referring to at the start...

18/9/02

Fairway was a top class horse and on his day (he won 7 Group races) back then and was more than competitive with the best around but that win was a surprise as his form was only average going into the run against Sunline. Belmura Lad beat Kingston Town one day, as well, and Dandy Andy beat Vo Rogue in the Australian Cup so the fact that a champion horse gets beaten doesn't diminish the quality of their performances. We don't know how good Fairy King Prawn is compared to the rest of our horses - he may be many lengths better. Jim & Tonic certainly looked to be every time he swept past ours in Hong Kong and there wasn't much between those three in Dubai. FKP won a G1 race in Japan at 2000m, which is really the benchmark distance in the world.

I should probably have added Solvit's 1994 win to the mix but beating Rough Habit (who was 50/1 that day), Durbridge (a super WFA competitor), the 3YO Danewin (who was in good form but was guided by the rudderless Jackie Tse), Tristalove (who had swept all before her in the 3YO filly races the previous season and had won and been placed at its two previous Group runs), another top 3YO in St Covet (who finished 2.9 lengths behind them, which was closer than I thought he would because I didn't think he would stay the trip) and Jeune (who, if memory serves me right, was 'excited' in the parade ring and ran 2nd last as a 3/1 favourite) puts it well above the 1998 rubbish.

There were only 8 runners in 2001 but the race was all class with Northerly, Sunline & Viscount fighting out a famous finish with the well-touted visitor Silvano running 4th. I don't need to remind people of that race. Viscount ended the season the top rated 3YO and the other two were Horse Of The Year contenders. Regardless of your views on Sunline v Northerly etc, you have to recognise their collective quality.

In 2000, the track was slow and that wrecked the chances of some of the major hopes but it's a decent field that included the 2000 Caulfield Cup winner in Diatribe (who smashed M&P's track record in that race by nearly a second [5+ lengths] - in fact, the 8th horse home, Streak, also beat M&P's old record), Testa Rossa (won the G1 Vic Health Cup in his lead up runs and came out after the Cox Plate to win the G1 Emirates Stakes under 59.5kg from the outside gate 16 in a famous run), Show A Heart (who was in good 3YO form), Shogun Lodge (won the Epsom two runs prior) and Tie The Knot, as well as other previous Group 1 winners in Referral not to forget Oliver Twist who had won the Underwood Stakes a couple of runs before going into the Cox Plate and then came out at his next run and won the G1 Mackinnon. Not as good as the 1999 or 2001 field (in terms of the immediate form of the runners going into the race) but light years ahead of the 1998 field (see below).

In 1999, the field included Tie The Knot, who was a prolific Group race winner and was in top form going into the race, the 1999 Australian Derby and Caulfield Cup winner, Sky Heights (whose form going into the Cox Plate read 21211 all in Group 1 and 2 races so it's a furphy to suggest he was a plodder at the time - he certainly became a plodder after his 'incident' in the Melbourne Cup but even so he managed to win four Group races including a G1 as a plodder and I'd be happy owning a horse that could do that), the top class 3YOs Testa Rossa 4th (form read 11212 including the G1 Vic Health Cup) and Redoute's Choice 5th (form read 1431 including the Caulfield Guineas in that titanic struggle with Testa Rossa), the giant-killing Intergaze ran 6th (who would believe that he would win 8 G1 races, 7 of them before that Cox Plate?) and Inaflury had form reading 11333 all in Group 1 & 2 races going into the race, which is why she started 8/1. It's interesting to realise that Sunline started 6/1 and the favourite at 7/2 was Redoute's Choice. Now that is definitely a very strong race.

By comparison, the 1998 Cox Plate won by M&P included Northern Drake 2nd (who started 100/1 with form going into the race reading 42408), Tycoon Lil 3rd (11/2 and went into the race with form reading 2222 - she never won an open age G1 race so I don't know why people use her as any sort of quality reference point at all), the 3YO Dodge 4th (won the Epsom before the Cox Plate in 1998 and then really never got close to winning after that), Catalan Opening 5th (form 3584), Doriemus 6th (to show how out of form he was, his runs including his last two preparations read 37622x86032x7372 - the last 2nd was in the Metropolitan, hardly a classic lead up race to the Cox Plate - Saintly excepted!), 3YO Dracula 7th (solid form 63117, which included the George Main), Batavian 8th (48640x2 - went into the race with just one run from a spell under his belt), Gold Guru 9th (form 45823), 3YO Kenwood Melody 10th (went into the race in good form, 2111, in 3YO company and started 3rd favourite at 9/1), and Super Slew 11th and last (had better form than most in the race with 152332 but still started 100/1). Even M&P went into the race with substandard form compared to the 1999, 2000 and 2001 winners. He'd only won 2 of his 4 starts from a spell and those were in 5 and 7 horse fields. He was unplaced (4th & 7th) in 9 horse fields in both other runs.

Of the 11 runners in that 1998 Cox Plate, four of them never raced again - Tycoon Lil, Batavian (who was probably at the end of his career anyway), Kenwood Melody and Super Slew. I have mentioned previously that the track was rock hard that year, as the MV club had not watered it (all clubs do this at carnival time to get fast times), and this contributed to both the track record run by M&P (though Kenwood Melody was beaten 9 lengths and broke the old record, as well, which just goes to show what I mean about record times generally not being a good guide) and the high number of horses that broke down after racing at MV at that time.

Of the other 6 runners in the race other than the winner, the following is their collective post Cox Plate record:

Runs 32 (of which Gold Guru is 16)
Wins 2 (Gold Guru won a handicap race in South Australia and Northern Drake won a 6 horse G1 Yalumba Stakes)
Placings 6

Now, Ladies and Gentlemen, THAT is why I refer to M&P's Cox Plate being the weakest for years. M&P's rivals had very ordinary form going into the race compared to other Cox Plates and diabolical form afterwards.

I believe I have provided a more than objective analysis, Pete. Now, if you were being truly objective, then I believe you will retract your statement about the quality of the last three Cox Plate fields being the worst of modern times and agree that the 1998 running takes that dubious honour by so far you'd need the Hubble Telescope to see it.

Cheers,
John

SELECTIONS - 23 October 2005

The criteria for October will be a modification of the previous qualification process. It will still be profitable systems with a minimum of 10 live selections and acceptable Chi-Squared figures but I've added in a couple of more stringent tests to weed out underperforming systems more quickly. You'll see the performance for the selections in the form of a set of numbers laid out as [Live Selections/Strike Rate%/POT%] that let you know how they're going.

Cessnock 1-2 Rica Picante [58/37.9%/11%]

Ruffies today: Sale 3-13 Keysie Girl, Colac 3-4 Irish Village. Keysie Girl might be some sort of chance today. She's finished thereabouts and has Nifty Nev back on board. Zabonas has led them up in his two runs and been weak at the finish so I expect Keysie Girl to draft him, get off his back and put herself into the finish. Tony Noonan has Barrido, a Laurel Oak (Into The Night, Gangbuster etc) syndicate horse, who I expect to run well after an OK trial. At Colac, Irish Village has form that reads 008X. He's been in that much trouble in his runs that you'd think he'd have visited the Irish Pub in the Irish Village before heading to the racetrack. He has some pace so might be in the race for a fair way at big odds.

SELECTIONS - 22 October 2005

The criteria for October will be a modification of the previous qualification process. It will still be profitable systems with a minimum of 10 live selections and acceptable Chi-Squared figures but I've added in a couple of more stringent tests to weed out underperforming systems more quickly. You'll see the performance for the selections in the form of a set of numbers laid out as [Live Selections/Strike Rate%/POT%] that let you know how they're going.

Belmont 8-3 Is Amazing [41/43.9%/62%]
Doomben 5-3 Willy Leica [20/40.0%/200%]
Kembla Grange 2-2 The Orangemen [56/39.3%/15%]
Kembla Grange 6-1 Ridgeback [56/39.3%/15%]
Moonee Valley 6-12 Matras [13/53.8%/154%]
Rosehill 1-1 Zinzin [16/31.3%/43%]
Rosehill 6-10 Aurville [20/40.0%/200%]

2005 COX PLATE

Looks like a dead to slow track, which will hurt the chances of some of the field and help others.

I think that, in the grand scheme of things, this is an average field in terms of strength. The fact that a 7YO mare is favourite and a 6YO non-G1 winner in Lad Of The Manor is a serious chance underlines the point. I have a view that racing in general around the world is going through a bit of a quality rut at present, which evens things up when horses travel, as we saw in the Caulfield Cup.

My thoughts:

1-Grey's Inn: terrific 1st up run, kept fighting, drawn well, is a real chance
2-Lad Of The Manor: excellent track/wet credentials and beat MD here in the Feehan. Big chance.
3-Super Kid: no chance.
4-Confectioner: people are kidding themselves if they think this one's a chance.
5-Desert War: will sit close and is as tough as nails. He'll be in my multiples.
6-FOO: keeps on keeping on. Will probably give a sight but the draw kills his winning chance. Could place.
7-Tosen Dandy: yours.
8-Xcellent: may not run on the wet track. On dry ground would have been my top pick but I'll leave him out now.
9-Outback Prince: if he wins we all need to give it away but he could lob a place at huge odds. I'll have him in trifectas.
10-Makybe Diva: super mare, super chance. Won in a canter last time. Will still need everything to go right.
11-Sky Cuddle: surely she's not a G1 2000m performer?
12-Lotteria: I'm taking this one on top, as I reckon she'll just get the right run either leading or behind the leader.
13-God's Own: has class and only won last time because the leader fell in a hole. If it hadn't and this one ran 2nd then it wouldn't be single figures. Could place. If he wins then I'm out of the quaddie.
14-Hotel Grand: he's by notorious wet track dud sire, Grand Lodge, which probably kills his chance. Is a serious stayer in the making and I'll predict he'll be in the thick of things in next year's Caulfield Cup.

I'll go:

12-Lotteria
10-Makybe Diva
2-Lad Of The Manor
5-Desert War

SELECTIONS - 21 October 2005

The criteria for October will be a modification of the previous qualification process. It will still be profitable systems with a minimum of 10 live selections and acceptable Chi-Squared figures but I've added in a couple of more stringent tests to weed out underperforming systems more quickly. You'll see the performance for the selections in the form of a set of numbers laid out as [Live Selections/Strike Rate%/POT%] that let you know how they're going.

Coffs Harbour 8-3 Capilano Road [33/30.4%/114%]
Mackay 6-2 Man Of Illusion [33/30.4%/114%]

SELECTIONS - 20 October 2005

The criteria for October will be a modification of the previous qualification process. It will still be profitable systems with a minimum of 10 live selections and acceptable Chi-Squared figures but I've added in a couple of more stringent tests to weed out underperforming systems more quickly. You'll see the performance for the selections in the form of a set of numbers laid out as [Live Selections/Strike Rate%/POT%] that let you know how they're going.

Northam 5-4 Wungong Song [55/32.7%/11%]
Port Lincoln 2-12 One Of A Kind [16/37.5%/11%]
Port Lincoln 7-2 Strange Lady [14/64.3%/45%]

SELECTIONS - 19 October 2005

The criteria for October will be a modification of the previous qualification process. It will still be profitable systems with a minimum of 10 live selections and acceptable Chi-Squared figures but I've added in a couple of more stringent tests to weed out underperforming systems more quickly. You'll see the performance for the selections in the form of a set of numbers laid out as [Live Selections/Strike Rate%/POT%] that let you know how they're going.

Eagle Farm 7-2 Space Dream [55/32.7%/11%]
Murray Bridge 4-1 Candy Dane [58/34.5%/22%]

The Geelong Cup continues its recent run of having very strong fields. I'm going for 16-Kamsky to improve and win, as he just looks really well in back on the dry track. I also like Belmont 5-3 and Geelong 10-13.

SELECTIONS - 18 October 2005

The criteria for October will be a modification of the previous qualification process. It will still be profitable systems with a minimum of 10 live selections and acceptable Chi-Squared figures but I've added in a couple of more stringent tests to weed out underperforming systems more quickly. You'll see the performance for the selections in the form of a set of numbers laid out as [Live Selections/Strike Rate%/POT%] that let you know how they're going.

Kyneton 2-4 Coup De Lago [21/33.3%/45%]
Kyneton 7-3 Outcast Babe [15/33.3%/53%]
Kyneton 7-5 Gallantree [28/39.3%/18%]

SELECTIONS - 17 October 2005

The criteria for October will be a modification of the previous qualification process. It will still be profitable systems with a minimum of 10 live selections and acceptable Chi-Squared figures but I've added in a couple of more stringent tests to weed out underperforming systems more quickly. You'll see the performance for the selections in the form of a set of numbers laid out as [Live Selections/Strike Rate%/POT%] that let you know how they're going.

Mildura 5-3 Flu Blu [57/35.1%/24%]
Scone 2-11 Enjoin [42/35.7%/10%]

Other chances to Mildura 7-1, Scone 4-1

SELECTIONS - 16 October 2005

The criteria for October will be a modification of the previous qualification process. It will still be profitable systems with a minimum of 10 live selections and acceptable Chi-Squared figures but I've added in a couple of more stringent tests to weed out underperforming systems more quickly. You'll see the performance for the selections in the form of a set of numbers laid out as [Live Selections/Strike Rate%/POT%] that let you know how they're going.

There are no POOMA selections today.

Ruffies: Hobart 3-2, 3-8; Gosford 3-6, 4-3, 4-7, 4-9
Good Chances: Hobart 2-2, 5-1

SELECTIONS - 15 October 2005

The criteria for October will be a modification of the previous qualification process. It will still be profitable systems with a minimum of 10 live selections and acceptable Chi-Squared figures but I've added in a couple of more stringent tests to weed out underperforming systems more quickly. You'll see the performance for the selections in the form of a set of numbers laid out as [Live Selections/Strike Rate%/POT%] that let you know how they're going.

Caulfield 6-4 Activation [19/36.8%/205%]
Caulfield 8-9 Railings [12/50.0%/107%]

The Caulfield Cup looks a tricky race. The POOMA, Railings, looks a strong chance but he's going to need to come from well back. I've always thought that Mummify was going to run a big race as long as the track was dry, which it is. He's coming from barrier 17 and, whereas no winner has come from wider than 13 in the last 5 years of all 2400m races at Caulfield, there are three Cup 2nd placegetters who've come from gate 17: Sky Heights in 2001, Grey Song in 2003 and Makybe Diva in 2004. They've all paid $4+ for the place, as well. The ones I'm not giving a winning chance to are: 2, 4, 6, 7, 12, 13, 14, 17, 19, 20. The ones I'll work around are: 1, 5, 9, 11, 16.

SELECTIONS - 14 October 2005

The criteria for October will be a modification of the previous qualification process. It will still be profitable systems with a minimum of 10 live selections and acceptable Chi-Squared figures but I've added in a couple of more stringent tests to weed out underperforming systems more quickly. You'll see the performance for the selections in the form of a set of numbers laid out as [Live Selections/Strike Rate%/POT%] that let you know how they're going.

Wagga 6-1 Moggs [41/34.1%/8%]

You'd think that Moggs would win by from here to over the road. He looks extremely well placed. Dangers look like 3, 10, 11. Townsville 4-3 also looks well in.

SELECTIONS - 13 October 2005

The criteria for October will be a modification of the previous qualification process. It will still be profitable systems with a minimum of 10 live selections and acceptable Chi-Squared figures but I've added in a couple of more stringent tests to weed out underperforming systems more quickly. You'll see the performance for the selections in the form of a set of numbers laid out as [Live Selections/Strike Rate%/POT%] that let you know how they're going.

There are no POOMA selections today.

Ruffie in Hawkesbury 5-9. Another chance Hawkesbury 7-5. Nothing looks really outstanding today, though.

SELECTIONS - 12 October 2005

The criteria for October will be a modification of the previous qualification process. It will still be profitable systems with a minimum of 10 live selections and acceptable Chi-Squared figures but I've added in a couple of more stringent tests to weed out underperforming systems more quickly. You'll see the performance for the selections in the form of a set of numbers laid out as [Live Selections/Strike Rate%/POT%] that let you know how they're going.

There are no POOMA selections today.

SELECTIONS - 11 October 2005

The criteria for October will be a modification of the previous qualification process. It will still be profitable systems with a minimum of 10 live selections and acceptable Chi-Squared figures but I've added in a couple of more stringent tests to weed out underperforming systems more quickly. You'll see the performance for the selections in the form of a set of numbers laid out as [Live Selections/Strike Rate%/POT%] that let you know how they're going.

Hamilton 7-2 Wit And Wisdom [54/33.3%/13%]

Ruffie in Hamilton 3-9.

SELECTIONS - 10 October 2005

The criteria for October will be a modification of the previous qualification process. It will still be profitable systems with a minimum of 10 live selections and acceptable Chi-Squared figures but I've added in a couple of more stringent tests to weed out underperforming systems more quickly. You'll see the performance for the selections in the form of a set of numbers laid out as [Live Selections/Strike Rate%/POT%] that let you know how they're going.

Murwillumbah 2-4 Cathy's Girl [27/40.7%/22%]
Pakenham 7-8 Outcast Babe [13/38.5%/76%]

SELECTIONS - 9 September 2005

The criteria for October will be a modification of the previous qualification process. It will still be profitable systems with a minimum of 10 live selections and acceptable Chi-Squared figures but I've added in a couple of more stringent tests to weed out underperforming systems more quickly. You'll see the performance for the selections in the form of a set of numbers laid out as [Live Selections/Strike Rate%/POT%] that let you know how they're going.

Kilmore 3-2 Keysie Girl [81/12.3%/144%]
Kilmore 3-11 Tenshi [81/12.3%/144%]
Horsham 2-6 Almorn [81/12.3%/144%]

I'm trialling a new method that's delivered 853/2590 (32.9%) across my database (1/1/2000-) at 13.4% SP profit. Today's selections are:

Hobart 4-1, 6-2, 7-3, 8-4
Gawler 6-5, 8-1

And others to watch:

Canberra 7-1
Sunshine Coast 2-2, 4-16 (ruffie), 5-1

SELECTIONS - 8 October 2005

The criteria for October will be a modification of the previous qualification process. It will still be profitable systems with a minimum of 10 live selections and acceptable Chi-Squared figures but I've added in a couple of more stringent tests to weed out underperforming systems more quickly. You'll see the performance for the selections in the form of a set of numbers laid out as [Live Selections/Strike Rate%/POT%] that let you know how they're going.

There are no POOMA selections today.

Looks a tough day. Paratroopers wins the Guineas on a dry track but the wet hurts his chance. One that I think will go OK are:

Eagle Farm 8-10
Rosehill 7-3
Werribee 1-3, 8-1

One out for all races at Caulfield, I'll go:

1-5
2-6
3-1
4-1
5-7
6-3
7-4
8-15
9-9

SELECTIONS - 7 October 2005

The criteria for October will be a modification of the previous qualification process. It will still be profitable systems with a minimum of 10 live selections and acceptable Chi-Squared figures but I've added in a couple of more stringent tests to weed out underperforming systems more quickly. You'll see the performance for the selections in the form of a set of numbers laid out as [Live Selections/Strike Rate%/POT%] that let you know how they're going.

Doomben 8-3 Stylish Qualo [39/43.6%/65%]
Port Macquarie 5-1 A Dollar Short [30/30.0%/129%]
Port Macquarie 9-5 Tondano [30/30.0%/129%]

Ruffie in Wangaratta 3-9 Muja Star.

SELECTIONS - 6 October 2005

The criteria for October will be a modification of the previous qualification process. It will still be profitable systems with a minimum of 10 live selections and acceptable Chi-Squared figures but I've added in a couple of more stringent tests to weed out underperforming systems more quickly. You'll see the performance for the selections in the form of a set of numbers laid out as [Live Selections/Strike Rate%/POT%] that let you know how they're going.

Goulburn 5-1 Gilded Grace [40/35.0%/11%]

SELECTIONS - 5 October 2005

The criteria for October will be a modification of the previous qualification process. It will still be profitable systems with a minimum of 10 live selections and acceptable Chi-Squared figures but I've added in a couple of more stringent tests to weed out underperforming systems more quickly. You'll see the performance for the selections in the form of a set of numbers laid out as [Live Selections/Strike Rate%/POT%] that let you know how they're going.

There are no POOMA selections today.

SELECTIONS - 4 October 2005

The criteria for October will be a modification of the previous qualification process. It will still be profitable systems with a minimum of 10 live selections and acceptable Chi-Squared figures but I've added in a couple of more stringent tests to weed out underperforming systems more quickly. You'll see the performance for the selections in the form of a set of numbers laid out as [Live Selections/Strike Rate%/POT%] that let you know how they're going.

There are no POOMA selections today.

SELECTIONS - 3 October 2005

The criteria for October will be a modification of the previous qualification process. It will still be profitable systems with a minimum of 10 live selections and acceptable Chi-Squared figures but I've added in a couple of more stringent tests to weed out underperforming systems more quickly. You'll see the performance for the selections in the form of a set of numbers laid out as [Live Selections/Strike Rate%/POT%] that let you know how they're going.

Ballina 5-2 Lightninghill [39/35.7%/14%]

SELECTIONS - 2 October 2005

The criteria for October will be a modification of the previous qualification process. It will still be profitable systems with a minimum of 10 live selections and acceptable Chi-Squared figures but I've added in a couple of more stringent tests to weed out underperforming systems more quickly. You'll see the performance for the selections in the form of a set of numbers laid out as [Live Selections/Strike Rate%/POT%] that let you know how they're going.

Cootamundra 5-6 Scala Santa [27/40.7%/22%]

A couple that might also go OK:

Port Lincoln 3-3 Eastern Glow
Toodyay (at Northam) 7-4 Turbanator

SELECTIONS - 1 October 2005

The criteria for October will be a modification of the previous qualification process. It will still be profitable systems with a minimum of 10 live selections and acceptable Chi-Squared figures but I've added in a couple of more stringent tests to weed out underperforming systems more quickly. You'll see the performance for the selections in the form of a set of numbers laid out as [Live Selections/Strike Rate%/POT%] that let you know how they're going.

Murtoa 3-5 Peace Prize [38/34.2%/6%]

Only the one selection today. My picks for selected races today are:

Randwick 2-1 Anjuna to quinella the race with 4-Fleur Royale
Randwick 4-1 Pendragon
Randwick 6-2 Kindjhal
Randwick 7-12 Mr Celebrity - looks a near certainty to me and probably a stable quinella

Flemington 5-4 Vision And Power
Flemington 7-15 Candy Vale
Flemington 8-13 Vouvray - will show why she's so short in Cups markets
Flemington 9-10 General Bayton - e/w the go

I'm potting Virage De Fortune, who has looked terrific so far, because the only 3YO fillies who have won down the Flemington 1200m in black type races in recent years have been Alinghi and Miss Moneypenny and 1) they both came out of open age races compared to Virage De Fortune's fillies' race and 2) I don't think she's as good as either of them.

OCTOBER SELECTION CRITERIA

The criteria for October will be a modification of the previous qualification process. It will still be profitable systems with a minimum of 10 live selections and acceptable Chi-Squared figures but I've added in a couple of more stringent tests to weed out underperforming systems. I actually made this tweak about 10 days ago and have avoided 20+ selections with just 2 winners. I'll ditch the number of units as it's really shown itself to be of no value.

You'll see the performance for the selections in the form of a set of numbers laid out as [Live Selections/Strike Rate%/POT%] that let you know how they're going.