I have posted selections publicly since 13/11/04. The point of posting them is to drive improvement in my own selection processes. On the whole, the selections come from mechanical methods and the goal was to try and create profitable systems that required no judgement by me. Note that all results use NSW dividends, as that best reflects what you'll get in a TAB though you can achieve better using best tote etc options from your sporting bookmaker.
At the start of August I changed to focusing only on Victorian races, which includes watching video replays and doing more empirical analysis. The results since that change are:
Selections: 116
Wins: 43
Strike Rate: 37.1%
POT%: +2.3%
October was a complete debacle with just 6 wins from 44 selections. As people are aware, I didn't have as much time during October to watch replays etc, as I was in Canberra with my father who had fallen very ill and subsequently passed away. I should post something on him, as he was an amazing feller. Not many people have places named after them in Antarctica but he's one. My really good systems also chose to take the month off and performed abysmally so we got a bit of a hammering all around.
Overall, the results are:
Selections: 1825
Wins: 498
Strike Rate: 27.3%
POT%: -3.4%
In spite of being a tad behind I'm still pretty happy with the result, as I started off badly and have gradually improved as I've worked out where best to focus and which races are best.
Tuesday, October 31, 2006
SELECTIONS - 31 October 2006
POOMA selections:
Kilmore 7-4 Helmut Varshing
Townsville 2-4 Chic Miss
Townsville 5-1 Halo To Heaven
Townsville 6-1 Mr Pickwick
Wyong 6-1 Leica Con
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Nil
Today: A few POOMA selections today to finish off what has been a completely forgettable month both from a family and a selection point of view but they come out of really good systems so we'll stick with them. Helmut Varshing has had absolutely no luck at his last couple of runs and should get the perfect sit right behind the pacemaker, Scenic Silver. Up at Townsville, Chic Miss started an odds on favourite at her only start and just failed to pick up the winner in the run home. She should atone here though I'll be a bit wary of taking odds on again. Halo To Heaven won at out of the way Charters Towers last time and in spite of his record of 2/21 is very well placed to win again in a field that isn't that strong. Mr Pickwick goes well at Townsville and this isn't much better than what he's been racing lately. At Wyong, 1-2 Nairobi should lead all of the way and win. He's been in good form of late. Leica Con ran well in a strong Class 1 last time and if he can overcome his barrier (which he should be able to) then he's right in this race.
Yesterday: I didn't see any of the races yesterday as I was at a funeral.
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.
Kilmore 7-4 Helmut Varshing
Townsville 2-4 Chic Miss
Townsville 5-1 Halo To Heaven
Townsville 6-1 Mr Pickwick
Wyong 6-1 Leica Con
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Nil
Today: A few POOMA selections today to finish off what has been a completely forgettable month both from a family and a selection point of view but they come out of really good systems so we'll stick with them. Helmut Varshing has had absolutely no luck at his last couple of runs and should get the perfect sit right behind the pacemaker, Scenic Silver. Up at Townsville, Chic Miss started an odds on favourite at her only start and just failed to pick up the winner in the run home. She should atone here though I'll be a bit wary of taking odds on again. Halo To Heaven won at out of the way Charters Towers last time and in spite of his record of 2/21 is very well placed to win again in a field that isn't that strong. Mr Pickwick goes well at Townsville and this isn't much better than what he's been racing lately. At Wyong, 1-2 Nairobi should lead all of the way and win. He's been in good form of late. Leica Con ran well in a strong Class 1 last time and if he can overcome his barrier (which he should be able to) then he's right in this race.
Yesterday: I didn't see any of the races yesterday as I was at a funeral.
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.
Monday, October 30, 2006
SELECTIONS - 30 October 2006
POOMA selections:
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Benalla 1-1
Today: And in one of those strange twists of fate to follow on from my father's funeral last Friday I have two funerals to attend today (one in Altona and, conveniently (not), one in Cranbourne) for members of the extended family...at least that makes three and the bad luck can stop there!
Yesterday: I didn't see any of the races yesterday as I was driving back to Melbourne from Canberra.
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Benalla 1-1
Today: And in one of those strange twists of fate to follow on from my father's funeral last Friday I have two funerals to attend today (one in Altona and, conveniently (not), one in Cranbourne) for members of the extended family...at least that makes three and the bad luck can stop there!
Yesterday: I didn't see any of the races yesterday as I was driving back to Melbourne from Canberra.
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.
Saturday, October 28, 2006
SELECTIONS - 28 October 2006
POOMA selections:
Gold Coast 8-6 Time Lion
Kembla Grange 1-3 Zaretti
Kembla Grange 8-11 Sui Generis
Moonee Valley 5-1 Excites
Moonee Valley 6-9 Zipping
Moonee Valley 7-12 Aqua Damore
Moonee Valley 8-13 Safwa
Morphettville 1-2 Guus
Yarra Valley 2-6 Gold Delta
Yarra Valley 3-3 Pure Dancer
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Ascot 2-4
Doomben 2-1, 5-7, 5-8
Today: The POOMAs copped a whupping last Saturday when I failed to assess that backmarkers wouldn't be able to get home even off a strong pace. The track looks to be dead today at Moonee Valley and I think it's likely that backmarkers will need to make their move a long way out in order to have a chance. A heap more POOMAs than normal today and one in Adelaide, which normally I wouldn't do but it comes from such a good system and will be such good value that we have to include it. The reason for so many non-Victorian selections is that the top systems that normally don't have many selections have chosen today to select some runners. It's hard to knock the chances, really, of any of them. I reckon it's a really good day to be having a bet but will be careful in the races at MV to make sure I'm getting the value I need.
Full MV analysis as follows.
Race 1: Speed (Good) - not enough form to work out the speed but given it's a Listed race there shouldn't be any loafing. Tresor and Royal Asscher look like the speed from the raced brigade with Cinq Royal and the unraced Punxsutawney Phil (named in honour of "the world's most famous weather-forecasting groundhog) right behind them. When in doubt, go for the Hayes/Williams runner in the 2YO races. It was good last time and the first starters will have to be good to beat it home. Selections: 8-Cinq Royal, 9-Royal Asscher, 4-Punxsutawney Phil
Race 2: Speed (Moderate) - Can't see anything really leading apart from Anasar, which will not be pressured to put a lot of speed on. Cinque probably sits behind with Sedgewick and Pantenny. Kisumu will have to come from the tail along with Fusaichi Rose, which will be a bit tough. Cinque drops a trillion grades in this but I'm put off by the fact that Fallon is on it and Williams is on Manna Miss, which has lesser form. Pantenny was OK last time and might handle the step up to a mile given the pace won't be that hard but I'm not at all interested in betting in this race. Selections: 5-Pantenny, 2-Fun In Flight, 4-Manna Miss
Race 3: Speed (Strong) - A heap of speed here with Industrious, Far Horizons, Tully Star, Cenotaph and Tullamarine all going forward. Some Think will get a good run back on the rail and horses like Corton Charlemagne will poke along out the back with Shake It Off. A race where luck in running will play a big part but I think that the swoopers will feature here at the end. Selections: 9-Industrious, 10-Corton Charlemagne, 4-Shake It Off
Race 4: Speed (Moderate) - One clear leader here in Poet's Voice and he'll be able to run along with no pressure from California Dane, Honalee and General Baynton with Red Oog and Let Go Thommo. I think that the 1000m is right up the alley of Poet's Voice and he'll be nice odds in this. Honalee is a good horse and can run a drum, and Let Go Thommo is racing well and will finish strongly. I want to see California Dane return to form before backing him, same for General Baynton and Red Oog goes well fresh but the trip might be a tad short. Selections: 6-Poet's Voice, 3-Let's Go Thommo, 2-Honalee
Race 5: Speed (Moderate) - Pace here from Deledio and Fantastic Owners though it wouldn't shock me to see a change of tactics on another runner. They'll all get their chance in this race though the ones out the back like Efficient will not want to wait too long to come into the race. Efficient has looked really good as he has been going through the grades but I really think that Excites is the one here and he's the first POOMA for the day. He comes through the Caulfield Guineas, which has to be stronger form than the rest of the lead up races and has been crying out for a longer trip. Paul Perry has had him for a couple of runs now and he'll be familiar with the horse so he should be spot on. Danever was a tad one paced in the Guineas but I reckon this son of Danehill will relish the 2040m today and be right there at the finish. Keen on the toppie in this. Selections: 1-Excites, 7-Efficient, 3-Danever
Race 6: Speed (Good) - Show Barry and Delvecchio look the obvious front runners and I can see Zipping being ridden forward from his wide gate to take up a position right behind the pace. Testafiable wil get a lovely run, as will Mahtoum. The usual suspects will be out the back including Demerger, Fooram and Art Success. I thought that Zipping's run in the Caulfield Cup was terrific even though he ran 12th and will follow up as a POOMA. He was only beaten a bit over 4L and was badly affected by the fact that horses couldn't make ground in the straight. Testafiable looks the obvious danger after his recent runs and he will love getting out to the trip at which he won the SA Derby last year. Jagger is coming to hand nicely for David Hayes and if he is to be a contender in the Melbourne Cup then he needs to show form here. It looks a reasonably skinny race for mine. Potential placegetters could include Dolphin Jo and Don Raphael but I can't see them winning. Selections: 9-Zipping, 5-Testafiable, 12-Jagger
Race 7: Speed (Strong) - Cox Plates are always run at a good clip and with the pressure coming on a long way out the winner tends to be the best of the bunch. Apache Cat really looks like he has to cross from 12 and lead with Casual Pass on his outside. Pompeii Ruler will also need to press forward from 9 so it's going to be hectic turning out of the straight. Luck is going to play an important role in the chances of the runners drawn wide. Our Smoking Joe and Racing To Win get the run right behind the speed. El Segundo will settle down in around 10th spot. If that horse had have won the other day then he'd be a 5/4 favourite but instead he was left flat footed and left everyone wondering about his chances here. I don't rate Gauci as a jockey, never have, and question his 'big race' capability, which is a big minus for this horse. However, if they really flog along early then he'll be a strong chance. If he can't win then it's my feeling is that this will be an outsider's year similar to when Dane Ripper won. The horses that I don't think are any hope are: Fields Of Omagh, Lad Of The Manor, Our Smoking Joe, Apache Cat, Red Dazzler and Miss Finland. The Cox Plate winner tends to have won or run 2nd at its last start in recent years and even though that's not a guide in what looks an even race it does show that horses need to have run well leading into it. I think that Aqua Damore is going to get an absolutely perfect run though I'm concerned that Gai has put Keiran Fallon on board, as he has little experience at the Valley or in Australia. It might be a race of firsts, as Gai hasn't won a Cox Plate and neither has a visiting jockey so you never know. At $20+ she seems terrific value after her top Caulfield Cup run. Casual Pass is a definite threat and if he can end up behind the lead with cover early given he'll be pressing forward then I suggest he'll run a place. I don't like the chances of Racing To Win at all. He has to have his first run at 2000m in a Cox Plate and he just doesn't seem to me to be a horse that can sustain a 600m sprint given the step up in trip. I don't think he'll run a place, really. Grey Swallow is an interesting runner and he'll poke along from his inside draw. It's hard to line his form up but he certainly has talent. Miss Finland is no hope, surely? She's no Surround, is she? I guess we'll find out but I don't see it myself. Pompeii Ruler has never been one of my horses, as he doesn't run quick times but he does have the ability to be really tough for a long way and that might carry him close today. If one of those that I've potted wins then I'll be out of the quaddie early. Four tips here. Selections: 12-Aqua Damore, 4-El Sequndo, 1-Casual Pass, 3-Grey Swallow
Race 8: Speed (Strong) - Heaps of speed here with Pin Up, Fullaz, Star Mystic, Benko and Pasikatera charging forward and setting a strong clip. Horses out the back are right in this race and they include Celtic Bloom, Honest Politician and Art Success. However, I think there's a special in this in the form of Safwa, which we're following up on again as a POOMA after she ran 4th for us last time after not getting a clear run through them. She'll get a great run in the race and has a good sprint. Reggie is another who'll get a good run and she goes well fresh so she goes into the selections and Celtic Bloom will charge home from the back. Valkyrie Diva hasn't quite measured up to black type races and she'll be too short to back. Selections: 13-Safwa, 7-Reggie, 3-Celtic Bloom
Race 9: Speed (Strong) - Volitant looks the lead here with New Edge, Belle Bizarre and Primus going forward. Flash Trick will get a nice run right behind them along with Undue and Cargo Cult. Cog Hill should also get a nice run in the race along with Black Panther. I reckon this topweight is the go here, as he is a terrific miler and isn't badly weighted here. Cargo Cult is yet to be unplaced at this track and ran well last time in the Toorak Handicap, as did Niconero and Undue. Brockman's Lass has drawn poorly and I think that'll skewer her chances in this. Selections: 1-Cog Hill, 3-Undue, 6-Cargo Cult, 11-Belle Bizarre
Race 10: Speed (Good) - Napa Sky looks the obvious leader here from Marwin Gold and Was That You, which should get a beaut run. Figurini, Paris Zero and Forest Spy all should get good runs, as well. Shadowmaker and Finniss Sea etc will need to come from back in the pack, which might be a bit of an ask in this. Was That You is 2/2 first up, 2/2 at the Valley and 2/4 at the trip. Given the run he'll get he has to go straight on top of the ticket. Paris Zero and Truly Wicked are right in this race and I expect Shadowmaker to improve on his last run in which he was never a chance on the biased track. Selections: 5-Was That You, 8-Paris Zero, 7-Truly Wicked
Yesterday: I didn't see any of the races yesterday though I see that Trick Of Light managed to get home again at Ballarat under the steadier of 59kg. She might be a fair horse, as might Watches who won her Maiden by a big space and in quicker time than the Class 3 race (though the track was going off later in the day).
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.
Gold Coast 8-6 Time Lion
Kembla Grange 1-3 Zaretti
Kembla Grange 8-11 Sui Generis
Moonee Valley 5-1 Excites
Moonee Valley 6-9 Zipping
Moonee Valley 7-12 Aqua Damore
Moonee Valley 8-13 Safwa
Morphettville 1-2 Guus
Yarra Valley 2-6 Gold Delta
Yarra Valley 3-3 Pure Dancer
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Ascot 2-4
Doomben 2-1, 5-7, 5-8
Today: The POOMAs copped a whupping last Saturday when I failed to assess that backmarkers wouldn't be able to get home even off a strong pace. The track looks to be dead today at Moonee Valley and I think it's likely that backmarkers will need to make their move a long way out in order to have a chance. A heap more POOMAs than normal today and one in Adelaide, which normally I wouldn't do but it comes from such a good system and will be such good value that we have to include it. The reason for so many non-Victorian selections is that the top systems that normally don't have many selections have chosen today to select some runners. It's hard to knock the chances, really, of any of them. I reckon it's a really good day to be having a bet but will be careful in the races at MV to make sure I'm getting the value I need.
Full MV analysis as follows.
Race 1: Speed (Good) - not enough form to work out the speed but given it's a Listed race there shouldn't be any loafing. Tresor and Royal Asscher look like the speed from the raced brigade with Cinq Royal and the unraced Punxsutawney Phil (named in honour of "the world's most famous weather-forecasting groundhog) right behind them. When in doubt, go for the Hayes/Williams runner in the 2YO races. It was good last time and the first starters will have to be good to beat it home. Selections: 8-Cinq Royal, 9-Royal Asscher, 4-Punxsutawney Phil
Race 2: Speed (Moderate) - Can't see anything really leading apart from Anasar, which will not be pressured to put a lot of speed on. Cinque probably sits behind with Sedgewick and Pantenny. Kisumu will have to come from the tail along with Fusaichi Rose, which will be a bit tough. Cinque drops a trillion grades in this but I'm put off by the fact that Fallon is on it and Williams is on Manna Miss, which has lesser form. Pantenny was OK last time and might handle the step up to a mile given the pace won't be that hard but I'm not at all interested in betting in this race. Selections: 5-Pantenny, 2-Fun In Flight, 4-Manna Miss
Race 3: Speed (Strong) - A heap of speed here with Industrious, Far Horizons, Tully Star, Cenotaph and Tullamarine all going forward. Some Think will get a good run back on the rail and horses like Corton Charlemagne will poke along out the back with Shake It Off. A race where luck in running will play a big part but I think that the swoopers will feature here at the end. Selections: 9-Industrious, 10-Corton Charlemagne, 4-Shake It Off
Race 4: Speed (Moderate) - One clear leader here in Poet's Voice and he'll be able to run along with no pressure from California Dane, Honalee and General Baynton with Red Oog and Let Go Thommo. I think that the 1000m is right up the alley of Poet's Voice and he'll be nice odds in this. Honalee is a good horse and can run a drum, and Let Go Thommo is racing well and will finish strongly. I want to see California Dane return to form before backing him, same for General Baynton and Red Oog goes well fresh but the trip might be a tad short. Selections: 6-Poet's Voice, 3-Let's Go Thommo, 2-Honalee
Race 5: Speed (Moderate) - Pace here from Deledio and Fantastic Owners though it wouldn't shock me to see a change of tactics on another runner. They'll all get their chance in this race though the ones out the back like Efficient will not want to wait too long to come into the race. Efficient has looked really good as he has been going through the grades but I really think that Excites is the one here and he's the first POOMA for the day. He comes through the Caulfield Guineas, which has to be stronger form than the rest of the lead up races and has been crying out for a longer trip. Paul Perry has had him for a couple of runs now and he'll be familiar with the horse so he should be spot on. Danever was a tad one paced in the Guineas but I reckon this son of Danehill will relish the 2040m today and be right there at the finish. Keen on the toppie in this. Selections: 1-Excites, 7-Efficient, 3-Danever
Race 6: Speed (Good) - Show Barry and Delvecchio look the obvious front runners and I can see Zipping being ridden forward from his wide gate to take up a position right behind the pace. Testafiable wil get a lovely run, as will Mahtoum. The usual suspects will be out the back including Demerger, Fooram and Art Success. I thought that Zipping's run in the Caulfield Cup was terrific even though he ran 12th and will follow up as a POOMA. He was only beaten a bit over 4L and was badly affected by the fact that horses couldn't make ground in the straight. Testafiable looks the obvious danger after his recent runs and he will love getting out to the trip at which he won the SA Derby last year. Jagger is coming to hand nicely for David Hayes and if he is to be a contender in the Melbourne Cup then he needs to show form here. It looks a reasonably skinny race for mine. Potential placegetters could include Dolphin Jo and Don Raphael but I can't see them winning. Selections: 9-Zipping, 5-Testafiable, 12-Jagger
Race 7: Speed (Strong) - Cox Plates are always run at a good clip and with the pressure coming on a long way out the winner tends to be the best of the bunch. Apache Cat really looks like he has to cross from 12 and lead with Casual Pass on his outside. Pompeii Ruler will also need to press forward from 9 so it's going to be hectic turning out of the straight. Luck is going to play an important role in the chances of the runners drawn wide. Our Smoking Joe and Racing To Win get the run right behind the speed. El Segundo will settle down in around 10th spot. If that horse had have won the other day then he'd be a 5/4 favourite but instead he was left flat footed and left everyone wondering about his chances here. I don't rate Gauci as a jockey, never have, and question his 'big race' capability, which is a big minus for this horse. However, if they really flog along early then he'll be a strong chance. If he can't win then it's my feeling is that this will be an outsider's year similar to when Dane Ripper won. The horses that I don't think are any hope are: Fields Of Omagh, Lad Of The Manor, Our Smoking Joe, Apache Cat, Red Dazzler and Miss Finland. The Cox Plate winner tends to have won or run 2nd at its last start in recent years and even though that's not a guide in what looks an even race it does show that horses need to have run well leading into it. I think that Aqua Damore is going to get an absolutely perfect run though I'm concerned that Gai has put Keiran Fallon on board, as he has little experience at the Valley or in Australia. It might be a race of firsts, as Gai hasn't won a Cox Plate and neither has a visiting jockey so you never know. At $20+ she seems terrific value after her top Caulfield Cup run. Casual Pass is a definite threat and if he can end up behind the lead with cover early given he'll be pressing forward then I suggest he'll run a place. I don't like the chances of Racing To Win at all. He has to have his first run at 2000m in a Cox Plate and he just doesn't seem to me to be a horse that can sustain a 600m sprint given the step up in trip. I don't think he'll run a place, really. Grey Swallow is an interesting runner and he'll poke along from his inside draw. It's hard to line his form up but he certainly has talent. Miss Finland is no hope, surely? She's no Surround, is she? I guess we'll find out but I don't see it myself. Pompeii Ruler has never been one of my horses, as he doesn't run quick times but he does have the ability to be really tough for a long way and that might carry him close today. If one of those that I've potted wins then I'll be out of the quaddie early. Four tips here. Selections: 12-Aqua Damore, 4-El Sequndo, 1-Casual Pass, 3-Grey Swallow
Race 8: Speed (Strong) - Heaps of speed here with Pin Up, Fullaz, Star Mystic, Benko and Pasikatera charging forward and setting a strong clip. Horses out the back are right in this race and they include Celtic Bloom, Honest Politician and Art Success. However, I think there's a special in this in the form of Safwa, which we're following up on again as a POOMA after she ran 4th for us last time after not getting a clear run through them. She'll get a great run in the race and has a good sprint. Reggie is another who'll get a good run and she goes well fresh so she goes into the selections and Celtic Bloom will charge home from the back. Valkyrie Diva hasn't quite measured up to black type races and she'll be too short to back. Selections: 13-Safwa, 7-Reggie, 3-Celtic Bloom
Race 9: Speed (Strong) - Volitant looks the lead here with New Edge, Belle Bizarre and Primus going forward. Flash Trick will get a nice run right behind them along with Undue and Cargo Cult. Cog Hill should also get a nice run in the race along with Black Panther. I reckon this topweight is the go here, as he is a terrific miler and isn't badly weighted here. Cargo Cult is yet to be unplaced at this track and ran well last time in the Toorak Handicap, as did Niconero and Undue. Brockman's Lass has drawn poorly and I think that'll skewer her chances in this. Selections: 1-Cog Hill, 3-Undue, 6-Cargo Cult, 11-Belle Bizarre
Race 10: Speed (Good) - Napa Sky looks the obvious leader here from Marwin Gold and Was That You, which should get a beaut run. Figurini, Paris Zero and Forest Spy all should get good runs, as well. Shadowmaker and Finniss Sea etc will need to come from back in the pack, which might be a bit of an ask in this. Was That You is 2/2 first up, 2/2 at the Valley and 2/4 at the trip. Given the run he'll get he has to go straight on top of the ticket. Paris Zero and Truly Wicked are right in this race and I expect Shadowmaker to improve on his last run in which he was never a chance on the biased track. Selections: 5-Was That You, 8-Paris Zero, 7-Truly Wicked
Yesterday: I didn't see any of the races yesterday though I see that Trick Of Light managed to get home again at Ballarat under the steadier of 59kg. She might be a fair horse, as might Watches who won her Maiden by a big space and in quicker time than the Class 3 race (though the track was going off later in the day).
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.
Friday, October 27, 2006
SELECTIONS - 27 October 2006
POOMA selections:
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Ballarat 1-7
Today: Have you looked at today's fields? No? Good, then don't bother because I have and apart from being interested to see how Trick Of Light goes in the last race at Ballarat it's a pretty awful day.
Yesterday: One that raced yesterday that should have been a POOMA is French King at Cranbourne. He's not big but he has a fair amount of talent and sprinted sharply to win his Maiden at his 2nd start. He really looks as though 2000m will suit and I'll follow him at his next start in Class 1/2 company. In NSW it's always worth looking at what Rick Worthington has in, which was the case again at Hawkesbury yesterday when his two runners, Commander Bilton and Gold Room, won the first two races. The former looked in trouble and arrived in the last hop; he was off the bit a long way out and it was clear that he'll be suited by a step up in journey. Gold Room is a really, really good horse that's easily up to city midweek class. In fact, he will be competitive in a Saturday race if they pick the right one at this stage of his development. He's by dud sire, End Sweep, and must have inherited his talent from his dam, Danzella.
Wednesday: Gee, Bon Hoffa is a good horse. Stepping up to 1700m for the first time and coming off a 1400m run he settled well behind the speed, got out at the right time and sprinted hard to win by 3L in a time only a half second outside of the track record. Wendy Kelly has taken him steadily through the grades and has avoided the temptation to go into town too early. He is easily up to Saturday city company. I don't expect the Derby winner to come from the Geelong Classic field. At the 200m mark they were all going pretty slowly and it was left to Gorky Park to slog along on the fence to win narrowly. I also can't see the Geelong Cup form stacking up in the Melbourne Cup. The winner was OK and Kerry O'Reilly finished a closing 4th under his big weight, which was a fair effort, but the time was quite slow and I think they'd be rough e/w chances at best. I was very happy (not) with the win of Mandela, as it cost me the $46K quaddie. I managed to find $38 winner Picquart in the 3rd leg with just four selections, which was clever, but missed the trifecta in that race when All Charisma held 3rd from Purple Chocolate so it was bad news all round.
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Ballarat 1-7
Today: Have you looked at today's fields? No? Good, then don't bother because I have and apart from being interested to see how Trick Of Light goes in the last race at Ballarat it's a pretty awful day.
Yesterday: One that raced yesterday that should have been a POOMA is French King at Cranbourne. He's not big but he has a fair amount of talent and sprinted sharply to win his Maiden at his 2nd start. He really looks as though 2000m will suit and I'll follow him at his next start in Class 1/2 company. In NSW it's always worth looking at what Rick Worthington has in, which was the case again at Hawkesbury yesterday when his two runners, Commander Bilton and Gold Room, won the first two races. The former looked in trouble and arrived in the last hop; he was off the bit a long way out and it was clear that he'll be suited by a step up in journey. Gold Room is a really, really good horse that's easily up to city midweek class. In fact, he will be competitive in a Saturday race if they pick the right one at this stage of his development. He's by dud sire, End Sweep, and must have inherited his talent from his dam, Danzella.
Wednesday: Gee, Bon Hoffa is a good horse. Stepping up to 1700m for the first time and coming off a 1400m run he settled well behind the speed, got out at the right time and sprinted hard to win by 3L in a time only a half second outside of the track record. Wendy Kelly has taken him steadily through the grades and has avoided the temptation to go into town too early. He is easily up to Saturday city company. I don't expect the Derby winner to come from the Geelong Classic field. At the 200m mark they were all going pretty slowly and it was left to Gorky Park to slog along on the fence to win narrowly. I also can't see the Geelong Cup form stacking up in the Melbourne Cup. The winner was OK and Kerry O'Reilly finished a closing 4th under his big weight, which was a fair effort, but the time was quite slow and I think they'd be rough e/w chances at best. I was very happy (not) with the win of Mandela, as it cost me the $46K quaddie. I managed to find $38 winner Picquart in the 3rd leg with just four selections, which was clever, but missed the trifecta in that race when All Charisma held 3rd from Purple Chocolate so it was bad news all round.
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.
Wednesday, October 25, 2006
SELECTIONS - 25 October 2006
POOMA selections:
Geelong 3-4 O'Reilly's Clock
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Canterbury 4-1
Eagle Farm 8-2, 8-6
Pinjarra 2-6
Today: A POOMA selection today at Geelong. 3-4 O'Reilly's Clock is pretty well placed here and is going to be good e/w value. Majorca looks like starting favourite but even though he's been running around in black type races last prep and ran well first up I'm not going to back a horse that's 1/19. O'Reilly's Clock has had a short freshen up, has drawn well and will settle handy behind what I expect to be a strongish pace. One of our favourites, Bon Hoffa, is back in action in race 5. He really is a good horse, which he's going to need to be to win today, as he steps up to 1700m for the first time and is up against some talented types. I think he's up to it but am wary of the price he'll be so I'll probably let him run without any of mine on board. The Geelong Cup is getting stronger each year and today's field is better than a lot of Caulfield Cups I can remember. Siamun ran home well last time behind Growl and will do the same today. Drac's Back poked along on the fence that day, got out and ran home, and from the inside draw he could do the same. The Tawqeet form is obviously pretty good so Vanquished must be a big chance, as must be last year's winner, On A Jeune, that subsequently ran 2nd in the Melbourne Cup.
Yesterday: No analysis from yesterday.
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.
Geelong 3-4 O'Reilly's Clock
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Canterbury 4-1
Eagle Farm 8-2, 8-6
Pinjarra 2-6
Today: A POOMA selection today at Geelong. 3-4 O'Reilly's Clock is pretty well placed here and is going to be good e/w value. Majorca looks like starting favourite but even though he's been running around in black type races last prep and ran well first up I'm not going to back a horse that's 1/19. O'Reilly's Clock has had a short freshen up, has drawn well and will settle handy behind what I expect to be a strongish pace. One of our favourites, Bon Hoffa, is back in action in race 5. He really is a good horse, which he's going to need to be to win today, as he steps up to 1700m for the first time and is up against some talented types. I think he's up to it but am wary of the price he'll be so I'll probably let him run without any of mine on board. The Geelong Cup is getting stronger each year and today's field is better than a lot of Caulfield Cups I can remember. Siamun ran home well last time behind Growl and will do the same today. Drac's Back poked along on the fence that day, got out and ran home, and from the inside draw he could do the same. The Tawqeet form is obviously pretty good so Vanquished must be a big chance, as must be last year's winner, On A Jeune, that subsequently ran 2nd in the Melbourne Cup.
Yesterday: No analysis from yesterday.
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.
Monday, October 23, 2006
POOMAs suspended
Due to a bereavement in the family the POOMA site is currently suspended. Should be back up and running for Cox Plate day.
Good luck in the photo finishes.
Good luck in the photo finishes.
Sunday, October 22, 2006
SELECTIONS - 22 October 2006
POOMA selections:
Horsham 8-1 Samadji
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Northam 5-3
Today: Analysis will be suspended for a few days while a family health issue resolves itself.
Yesterday: So, having worked out that horses couldn't win from back at all at Caulfield I revised my strategy and decided to use Aqua D'Amore as a roving trifecta banker with 3-5-7-9-10-11-12-17. Imagine my happiness when Delta Blues lobbed 3rd in the last stride to knock Activation back to 4th and kill my trifecta. It paid $30K and I would have had it for a half. The worst bit is that I had another ticket with it included but didn't get the combination right. Would have been a terrific follow up to Friday's Townsville quaddie. Clearly, the form won't stack up from the meeting as half the horses that turned up were never a chance due to the way the track played.
POOMAs: Once I saw that Enemy Of Average couldn't make ground on the leaders at Caulfield yesterday I knew that my POOMA selections were in a lot of trouble. And thus it transpired as we batted 0/4 for the day, the worst in a long time actually.
Horsham 8-1 Samadji
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Northam 5-3
Today: Analysis will be suspended for a few days while a family health issue resolves itself.
Yesterday: So, having worked out that horses couldn't win from back at all at Caulfield I revised my strategy and decided to use Aqua D'Amore as a roving trifecta banker with 3-5-7-9-10-11-12-17. Imagine my happiness when Delta Blues lobbed 3rd in the last stride to knock Activation back to 4th and kill my trifecta. It paid $30K and I would have had it for a half. The worst bit is that I had another ticket with it included but didn't get the combination right. Would have been a terrific follow up to Friday's Townsville quaddie. Clearly, the form won't stack up from the meeting as half the horses that turned up were never a chance due to the way the track played.
POOMAs: Once I saw that Enemy Of Average couldn't make ground on the leaders at Caulfield yesterday I knew that my POOMA selections were in a lot of trouble. And thus it transpired as we batted 0/4 for the day, the worst in a long time actually.
Saturday, October 21, 2006
SELECTIONS - 21 October 2006
POOMA selections:
Caulfield 2-4 Enemy Of Average
Caulfield 5-2 Shadoways
Caulfield 8-20 Zipping
Caulfield 9-4 Show Barry
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Ascot 2-12, 8-11
Caulfield 5-2
Newcastle 6-1
Randwick 1-3, 4-7
Today: A few POOMAs today, described below. I'm reasonably confident that the winners at Caulfield will have the form to win. That is, I'm not expecting any great surprises where we look back and say, "Ahhh, yep, it could win." That said, the quaddie legs are tough because there are actually so many horses that can win. Around the rest of the country there are a few horses that I think will go well. Perth racing returns to Ascot today after its winter spell at Belmont and 2-12 Wynyard Hall looks like a horse on the up. He ran sharp time in winning comfortably last time and only needs to have a decent run in the race from his gate to be in the finish. 8-11 Old Sage got home well to win last time and the wide draw is actually no disadvantage from the 1400m start at Ascot. He'll be nice double each way odds and I'll be having a go at that price or better. Newcastle is one of those tracks where form seems to stand up well so 6-1 Note The Champ must be a big chance after his good last start 2nd to Tricory last time. He drops a grade, which is neither here nor there, really, over the 900m scamper but this field is nowhere near as strong as that previous race. The two at Randwick look like fair chances with 1-3 Amory Lane probably being the best given that 4-7 Attend bumps into Reigning To Win. The winners are out there today if you're prepared to be patient and pick out the right races.
I used to prepare my own speed map but now the way I come up with it is to use a commercial product as a starting point and then modify based on my assessment. Is just as accurate and saves me a lot of time. Full Caulfield analysis as follows.
Race 1: Speed (Moderate) - Saywaan and Maha Cha lead this up with Mute and Devil Moon right behind them. In the smallish field the ones out the back won't be that far away so they'll all get their chance. This race features horses back in grade with some reasonably average performers. Fun In Flight has been getting home well in her two runs from a spell. She's pretty well weighted here. Miss Fantabulous drew 18 of 19 last time in the Flight Stakes, sat forward and deep before weakening to finish 16th behind Cheeky Choice though she was only 6.4L away. Maha Chakri is in consistent form in weaker race, Mute seems to be improving and World Joy has some form around handy performers. Selections: 2-Miss Fantabulous, 1-Fun In Flight, 5-World Joy
Race 2: Speed (Moderate) - from their wide gates the only two that race forward in this race, Blue Lago and Changing Eyes, should cross and lead. Prospect sits behind the pace and Enemy Of Average is probably out the back, though not too far away. Like the first race there are some runners that have been performing in good races and some lesser type. Enemy Of Average really looks the goods here after his two runs from a spell and is our first POOMA. He was only 1.2L behind Snort last time when coming from back, as usual, and he'll be cherry ripe for this. Blue Lago will get to the front in the straight at some point, I expect, as Changing Eyes drops away and My Midi has been racing around in Group races for a while and this is easier. Selections: 4-Enemy Of Average, 1-Blue Lago, 2-My Midi
Race 3: Speed (Moderate) - All but one of these runners is stepping up to 2000m for the first time and I can't imagine any trainer would want their horse to lead at a strong clip so unless there's one that simpy refuses to settle then the speed should be moderate, especially as there are very few on-pacers in the race. Brolago looks the obvious pacemaker from Fuji Fantasy and Diatreme, which will have to go forward from out wide. Satnav, Lady Gray, Rendinza and Rena's Lady are positioned just behind the speed and the rest sort themselves out from there. This is a very difficult race and I'm not keen to be backing the race unless there's something I assess as extremely over the odds. For the record...Selections: 4-Sefrah, 7-Diatreme, 3-Rena's Lady
Race 4: Speed (Moderate) - Terenaba led them up to win the Group 1 Spring Champion Stks last time at about 1,000,000-1 and I can't see why connections would change a winning formula in what looks to be another race without a genuine high speed on-pacer. Centura and Galen will get a nice run behind the leader and the normal backmarkers like Ulfah will be in their usual position. I haven't rated the Sydney 3YO form at all this season and I'll go against it again here. Ankh Morpork is the Derby favourite by default, I think, as there doesn't look to be much staying depth this year and steps up to a more suitable trip today. He's only won a Geelong Maiden and even though he's always shown talent I want to see him really crunch a good field before being convinced of his ability. Galen got home well to win a strong event last time and is going to get the gun run so he looks a big chances, as does Tip The Dip, which keep running on strongly for the in form Leon McDonald stable. Perth visitor, Egomaniac, has been winning easily and it's always worth putting in the good WA horses. Selections: 7-Tip The Dip, 3-Galen, 5-Ankh Morpork
Race 5: Speed (Strong) - They don't tend to loaf too much in a Group 2 1100m sprint. Three potential leaders and they'll all be on the pace - Any Suggestion, Magnus and Biscayne Bay. Queen Of The Hill will get a nice suck along behind the speed and Shadoways will be back and one out. This looks like a Shadoways benefit race to me, which is why he's a POOMA selection today. 3/5 at the track, 3/3 at the trip, very well weighted, good jockey and form from strong races behind Miss Andretti and Fast 'N' Famous. That'll do me. Magnus is a really crack sprinter and will run a terrific race again, as he always tends to do, and Queen Of The Hill is really going to have the right run to be a chance here. I can't see the others that'll be out the back outsprinting Shadoways. Selections: 2-Shadoways, 8-Queen Of The Hill, 7-Magnus
Race 6: Speed (Strong) - Lots of pace here and that'll be to the advantage of horses racing midfield and back. Live In Vain, Volitant, Caprizzi Strip and New Edge will take up the first four positions at a fair clip with Bentley Biscuit stalking them on the rails and Shablec and Royal Ida out the back. Bentley Biscuit's first up win was terrific and if his bad feet are OK then I can see him getting to the front 200m out and opening up a winning gap. That said, his 2nd up runs tend to be a tad flat, even in winning, so I'll want a price in this. Royal Ida is a bomb-proof galloper that is always going to give a good sight and I expect improvement from Volitant today. Selections: 3-Bentley Biscuit, 7-Royal Ida, 2-Volitant
Race 7: Speed (Strong) - Dea and Speedy Rossa look like leading at a fair pace, which will give good runs to Belle Bizarre and Beauty Watch, which will have to work forward from out wide. Divine Madonna, Astrodame et al will poke along out the back and look to get into the race on the corner. It's a hard one to start the quaddie. Divine Madonna rushed home like Hurricane Katrina last time in an amazing performance, the like of which we rarely see. If she gets a clear run at them around the smaller Caulfield track then you'd think they can't hold her out. The issue for me is that she does look to be a big track horse. Open Cut should have the absolute gun run and third up from a spell is a chance to turn the tables on the favourite. Bashful should also have a nice run in transit, which will be 100% different to her last run which was basically a track gallop because she never got out. Sorenstam is another that'll be in the right position when the pressure goes on. Belle Bizarre is a terrific mare and a win would surprise me not one iota. Selections: 4-Open Cut, 2-Divine Madonna, 9-Belle Bizarre
Race 8: Speed (Strong) - It's almost impossible to work out a speed map for this race but what is for sure and certain is that it will be strongly run. I think that if a trainer is of a mind to have their horse lead then they'll be able to achieve that by simply having it push forward through the first 400m. Therefore, we might see a surprise leader like Serenade Rose, which has drawn deep. Zipping has been my long range selection for the Caulfield Cup for the last couple of months and now that he's made the field I'm sticking solid even though Glen Boss is going to need everything to go right from the extreme outside draw. This is such a good field with good formlines from everywhere, including overseas. I won't go through the entire field, as that's been done to death on radio, TV and in the press but I'm sure we'll see a worthy winner. Selections: 20-Zipping, 18-Growl, 3-Railings
Race 9: Speed (Very strong) - I can't see how this will be run at anything other than a sprint for nearly the entire journey given that all of the pace is out wide and the number of on-pace runners in the race. Octrivia looks like he has to cross and lead with Maybe Better and Evasion. Show Barry is going to get a terrific cart along right behind the speed and is an extremely tough customer to run down in this sort of company, which is why he's a POOMA at really terrific e/w odds. I reckon he'll give us a great sight for our money. Polar Bear and Tick By will have cosy runs along the rail, and Spinney and King Of Ashford should be one out midfield. A really hard race and we're going for value. Selections: 4-Show Barry, 2-King Of Ashford, 5-Spinney
Race 10: Speed (Moderate) - A bit difficult to work out the pace here. Jumaana and Wildlife Girl look the leaders at a slow bat. The runners to follow will be stalking the pace on the fence and one out and look to be Megadeal, Anais, Chilli Cool and Bella Princess. Anais is on the up and is obviously in this with a chance even though it's a fair jump in grade. Megadeal looks very well placed and will be in the finish. Bella Princess doesn't have much of a winning record but is good fresh and will have that nice run. A hard leg to end the quaddie. Selections: 1-Megadeal, 10-Anais, 14-Bella Princess
Yesterday: Apart from the two POOMAs running 3rd I had a very successful day thanks to getting the $19K Townsville quaddie for a half. In fact, the four horses that I had in the last leg were the only live runners in the quaddie after most people were blown out by a $58 shot that arrived by a wart. Mick Kent pulled off a rare event in Australian racing with Sir Raffles winning a hurdle race at his first ever start by a handy 12L. The horse must have some fair flat ability to win like that so look out for him in those events. Our pick, Waltermitty, ran OK for 3rd at nice e/w odds. Was a pretty average day's racing otherwise so nothing to follow as far as I'm concerned.
POOMAs: More pain yesterday with two 3rds from the two selections. I'd rather than ran 10th and 47th, I hate running placings! The Bhagwan was really pushed along early to hold his spot and had nothing left at the finish. That is not the way to ride that horse if his first start is anything to go by. I think that my assessment of Nuclear Roo's bad legs is correct given how he wobbled around. He has a lot of talent but is always going to be a risk.
Caulfield 2-4 Enemy Of Average
Caulfield 5-2 Shadoways
Caulfield 8-20 Zipping
Caulfield 9-4 Show Barry
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Ascot 2-12, 8-11
Caulfield 5-2
Newcastle 6-1
Randwick 1-3, 4-7
Today: A few POOMAs today, described below. I'm reasonably confident that the winners at Caulfield will have the form to win. That is, I'm not expecting any great surprises where we look back and say, "Ahhh, yep, it could win." That said, the quaddie legs are tough because there are actually so many horses that can win. Around the rest of the country there are a few horses that I think will go well. Perth racing returns to Ascot today after its winter spell at Belmont and 2-12 Wynyard Hall looks like a horse on the up. He ran sharp time in winning comfortably last time and only needs to have a decent run in the race from his gate to be in the finish. 8-11 Old Sage got home well to win last time and the wide draw is actually no disadvantage from the 1400m start at Ascot. He'll be nice double each way odds and I'll be having a go at that price or better. Newcastle is one of those tracks where form seems to stand up well so 6-1 Note The Champ must be a big chance after his good last start 2nd to Tricory last time. He drops a grade, which is neither here nor there, really, over the 900m scamper but this field is nowhere near as strong as that previous race. The two at Randwick look like fair chances with 1-3 Amory Lane probably being the best given that 4-7 Attend bumps into Reigning To Win. The winners are out there today if you're prepared to be patient and pick out the right races.
I used to prepare my own speed map but now the way I come up with it is to use a commercial product as a starting point and then modify based on my assessment. Is just as accurate and saves me a lot of time. Full Caulfield analysis as follows.
Race 1: Speed (Moderate) - Saywaan and Maha Cha lead this up with Mute and Devil Moon right behind them. In the smallish field the ones out the back won't be that far away so they'll all get their chance. This race features horses back in grade with some reasonably average performers. Fun In Flight has been getting home well in her two runs from a spell. She's pretty well weighted here. Miss Fantabulous drew 18 of 19 last time in the Flight Stakes, sat forward and deep before weakening to finish 16th behind Cheeky Choice though she was only 6.4L away. Maha Chakri is in consistent form in weaker race, Mute seems to be improving and World Joy has some form around handy performers. Selections: 2-Miss Fantabulous, 1-Fun In Flight, 5-World Joy
Race 2: Speed (Moderate) - from their wide gates the only two that race forward in this race, Blue Lago and Changing Eyes, should cross and lead. Prospect sits behind the pace and Enemy Of Average is probably out the back, though not too far away. Like the first race there are some runners that have been performing in good races and some lesser type. Enemy Of Average really looks the goods here after his two runs from a spell and is our first POOMA. He was only 1.2L behind Snort last time when coming from back, as usual, and he'll be cherry ripe for this. Blue Lago will get to the front in the straight at some point, I expect, as Changing Eyes drops away and My Midi has been racing around in Group races for a while and this is easier. Selections: 4-Enemy Of Average, 1-Blue Lago, 2-My Midi
Race 3: Speed (Moderate) - All but one of these runners is stepping up to 2000m for the first time and I can't imagine any trainer would want their horse to lead at a strong clip so unless there's one that simpy refuses to settle then the speed should be moderate, especially as there are very few on-pacers in the race. Brolago looks the obvious pacemaker from Fuji Fantasy and Diatreme, which will have to go forward from out wide. Satnav, Lady Gray, Rendinza and Rena's Lady are positioned just behind the speed and the rest sort themselves out from there. This is a very difficult race and I'm not keen to be backing the race unless there's something I assess as extremely over the odds. For the record...Selections: 4-Sefrah, 7-Diatreme, 3-Rena's Lady
Race 4: Speed (Moderate) - Terenaba led them up to win the Group 1 Spring Champion Stks last time at about 1,000,000-1 and I can't see why connections would change a winning formula in what looks to be another race without a genuine high speed on-pacer. Centura and Galen will get a nice run behind the leader and the normal backmarkers like Ulfah will be in their usual position. I haven't rated the Sydney 3YO form at all this season and I'll go against it again here. Ankh Morpork is the Derby favourite by default, I think, as there doesn't look to be much staying depth this year and steps up to a more suitable trip today. He's only won a Geelong Maiden and even though he's always shown talent I want to see him really crunch a good field before being convinced of his ability. Galen got home well to win a strong event last time and is going to get the gun run so he looks a big chances, as does Tip The Dip, which keep running on strongly for the in form Leon McDonald stable. Perth visitor, Egomaniac, has been winning easily and it's always worth putting in the good WA horses. Selections: 7-Tip The Dip, 3-Galen, 5-Ankh Morpork
Race 5: Speed (Strong) - They don't tend to loaf too much in a Group 2 1100m sprint. Three potential leaders and they'll all be on the pace - Any Suggestion, Magnus and Biscayne Bay. Queen Of The Hill will get a nice suck along behind the speed and Shadoways will be back and one out. This looks like a Shadoways benefit race to me, which is why he's a POOMA selection today. 3/5 at the track, 3/3 at the trip, very well weighted, good jockey and form from strong races behind Miss Andretti and Fast 'N' Famous. That'll do me. Magnus is a really crack sprinter and will run a terrific race again, as he always tends to do, and Queen Of The Hill is really going to have the right run to be a chance here. I can't see the others that'll be out the back outsprinting Shadoways. Selections: 2-Shadoways, 8-Queen Of The Hill, 7-Magnus
Race 6: Speed (Strong) - Lots of pace here and that'll be to the advantage of horses racing midfield and back. Live In Vain, Volitant, Caprizzi Strip and New Edge will take up the first four positions at a fair clip with Bentley Biscuit stalking them on the rails and Shablec and Royal Ida out the back. Bentley Biscuit's first up win was terrific and if his bad feet are OK then I can see him getting to the front 200m out and opening up a winning gap. That said, his 2nd up runs tend to be a tad flat, even in winning, so I'll want a price in this. Royal Ida is a bomb-proof galloper that is always going to give a good sight and I expect improvement from Volitant today. Selections: 3-Bentley Biscuit, 7-Royal Ida, 2-Volitant
Race 7: Speed (Strong) - Dea and Speedy Rossa look like leading at a fair pace, which will give good runs to Belle Bizarre and Beauty Watch, which will have to work forward from out wide. Divine Madonna, Astrodame et al will poke along out the back and look to get into the race on the corner. It's a hard one to start the quaddie. Divine Madonna rushed home like Hurricane Katrina last time in an amazing performance, the like of which we rarely see. If she gets a clear run at them around the smaller Caulfield track then you'd think they can't hold her out. The issue for me is that she does look to be a big track horse. Open Cut should have the absolute gun run and third up from a spell is a chance to turn the tables on the favourite. Bashful should also have a nice run in transit, which will be 100% different to her last run which was basically a track gallop because she never got out. Sorenstam is another that'll be in the right position when the pressure goes on. Belle Bizarre is a terrific mare and a win would surprise me not one iota. Selections: 4-Open Cut, 2-Divine Madonna, 9-Belle Bizarre
Race 8: Speed (Strong) - It's almost impossible to work out a speed map for this race but what is for sure and certain is that it will be strongly run. I think that if a trainer is of a mind to have their horse lead then they'll be able to achieve that by simply having it push forward through the first 400m. Therefore, we might see a surprise leader like Serenade Rose, which has drawn deep. Zipping has been my long range selection for the Caulfield Cup for the last couple of months and now that he's made the field I'm sticking solid even though Glen Boss is going to need everything to go right from the extreme outside draw. This is such a good field with good formlines from everywhere, including overseas. I won't go through the entire field, as that's been done to death on radio, TV and in the press but I'm sure we'll see a worthy winner. Selections: 20-Zipping, 18-Growl, 3-Railings
Race 9: Speed (Very strong) - I can't see how this will be run at anything other than a sprint for nearly the entire journey given that all of the pace is out wide and the number of on-pace runners in the race. Octrivia looks like he has to cross and lead with Maybe Better and Evasion. Show Barry is going to get a terrific cart along right behind the speed and is an extremely tough customer to run down in this sort of company, which is why he's a POOMA at really terrific e/w odds. I reckon he'll give us a great sight for our money. Polar Bear and Tick By will have cosy runs along the rail, and Spinney and King Of Ashford should be one out midfield. A really hard race and we're going for value. Selections: 4-Show Barry, 2-King Of Ashford, 5-Spinney
Race 10: Speed (Moderate) - A bit difficult to work out the pace here. Jumaana and Wildlife Girl look the leaders at a slow bat. The runners to follow will be stalking the pace on the fence and one out and look to be Megadeal, Anais, Chilli Cool and Bella Princess. Anais is on the up and is obviously in this with a chance even though it's a fair jump in grade. Megadeal looks very well placed and will be in the finish. Bella Princess doesn't have much of a winning record but is good fresh and will have that nice run. A hard leg to end the quaddie. Selections: 1-Megadeal, 10-Anais, 14-Bella Princess
Yesterday: Apart from the two POOMAs running 3rd I had a very successful day thanks to getting the $19K Townsville quaddie for a half. In fact, the four horses that I had in the last leg were the only live runners in the quaddie after most people were blown out by a $58 shot that arrived by a wart. Mick Kent pulled off a rare event in Australian racing with Sir Raffles winning a hurdle race at his first ever start by a handy 12L. The horse must have some fair flat ability to win like that so look out for him in those events. Our pick, Waltermitty, ran OK for 3rd at nice e/w odds. Was a pretty average day's racing otherwise so nothing to follow as far as I'm concerned.
POOMAs: More pain yesterday with two 3rds from the two selections. I'd rather than ran 10th and 47th, I hate running placings! The Bhagwan was really pushed along early to hold his spot and had nothing left at the finish. That is not the way to ride that horse if his first start is anything to go by. I think that my assessment of Nuclear Roo's bad legs is correct given how he wobbled around. He has a lot of talent but is always going to be a risk.
Friday, October 20, 2006
SELECTIONS - 20 October 2006
POOMA selections:
Coffs Harbour 3-4 The Bhagwan
Mornington 8-2 Nuclear Roo
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Mornington 1-10
Townsville 2-4
Today: A couple of POOMAs today, both of which are from our horses to follow. Mornington 8-2 Nuclear Roo led on the fence first up last time at Wangaratta, was taken on left, right and centre, and dashed away to win eased up by 3L. He drifted to the middle of the track that day, which didn't look to be by design, and I suspect he's got a few feet problems given he's 0/6 on dry tracks and 3/8 on wet so today's dead conditions should suit. Coffs Harbour 3-4 The Bhagwan was terrific at his first start when racing at the back of the field, running very wide on the corner and then rocketing to the line for 3rd. He would have won in another couple of bounds and the step up in trip will also help. He could be a really good horse and should win today. Townsville 2-4 Our Georgia Rose looks hard to beat again. She should position handy, sprint to the lead and be hard to run down. I assess her price at $2.20 and will back her at those odds. A couple at Canterbury that might go OK (if they're not one of the all too common boat races that have infected Sydey racing over the last 12 months) are 5-3 Flavoursome, which should get a better run than last time, and 7-3 Cara Y Cruz for Gai Waterhouse. The 14 gate will add a couple of dollars to her price. She's 2/2 first up and has the tactical speed to position handy, especially as Eight Moons has drawn 10 and will need to go forward.
Yesterday: Not much of a day yesterday in terms of horses to follow but I did managed to end in front. Gallant Guru carried his 57kg to a powerful win in the Moe Cup. He's one of those horses with talent that's not up to the top grade but can win in Listed company. Cardiac Arrest was terrific at Port Lincoln in carrying his 60.5kg from the outside gate of 11 to a narrow win. I had a nice result, which could have been better if my quinella 1x2-5 for $1 had have been put on for the $50 that I actually wanted. Was happy to get the $11.70 back for my $2 outlay on that one...
POOMAs: Two 2nds yesterday from two selections, which I hate more than anything, especially as Cardiac Arrest really should have been a POOMA but I decided against nominating him due to his gate thus turning a winning day into a losing one.
Coffs Harbour 3-4 The Bhagwan
Mornington 8-2 Nuclear Roo
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Mornington 1-10
Townsville 2-4
Today: A couple of POOMAs today, both of which are from our horses to follow. Mornington 8-2 Nuclear Roo led on the fence first up last time at Wangaratta, was taken on left, right and centre, and dashed away to win eased up by 3L. He drifted to the middle of the track that day, which didn't look to be by design, and I suspect he's got a few feet problems given he's 0/6 on dry tracks and 3/8 on wet so today's dead conditions should suit. Coffs Harbour 3-4 The Bhagwan was terrific at his first start when racing at the back of the field, running very wide on the corner and then rocketing to the line for 3rd. He would have won in another couple of bounds and the step up in trip will also help. He could be a really good horse and should win today. Townsville 2-4 Our Georgia Rose looks hard to beat again. She should position handy, sprint to the lead and be hard to run down. I assess her price at $2.20 and will back her at those odds. A couple at Canterbury that might go OK (if they're not one of the all too common boat races that have infected Sydey racing over the last 12 months) are 5-3 Flavoursome, which should get a better run than last time, and 7-3 Cara Y Cruz for Gai Waterhouse. The 14 gate will add a couple of dollars to her price. She's 2/2 first up and has the tactical speed to position handy, especially as Eight Moons has drawn 10 and will need to go forward.
Yesterday: Not much of a day yesterday in terms of horses to follow but I did managed to end in front. Gallant Guru carried his 57kg to a powerful win in the Moe Cup. He's one of those horses with talent that's not up to the top grade but can win in Listed company. Cardiac Arrest was terrific at Port Lincoln in carrying his 60.5kg from the outside gate of 11 to a narrow win. I had a nice result, which could have been better if my quinella 1x2-5 for $1 had have been put on for the $50 that I actually wanted. Was happy to get the $11.70 back for my $2 outlay on that one...
POOMAs: Two 2nds yesterday from two selections, which I hate more than anything, especially as Cardiac Arrest really should have been a POOMA but I decided against nominating him due to his gate thus turning a winning day into a losing one.
Thursday, October 19, 2006
SELECTIONS - 19 October 2006
POOMA selections:
Ipswich 1-1 In A Circle
Port Lincoln 3-8 Sunny Diva
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Port Lincoln 6-1
Wyong 7-7
Today: A couple of those rare non-Victorian POOMAs today starting with an 800m dash in the first race at Ipswich. 1-In A Circle's trainer seems to think that having an apprentice jockey on board is the way to go, as this is the 12th run in a row that the horse has had one on. He is back from Class 6 company to Class 4 today though that doesn't make as much difference over the short trip as it does over longer. He should sit outside the lead and be strong to the line at what I would suggest will be pretty good odds of around $3. Port Lincoln 3-8 Sunny Diva hasn't drawn ideally but has the pace to get up outside the lead. She ran quick time when resuming and even though this is a couple of grades up looks well within her reach. 6-1 Cardiac Arrest is a terrific old horse that's won 15 from 52 with another 15 placings. It was a strong performance first up and if he can get a position from his wide gate then a repeat performance could easily be on the cards.
Yesterday: Well, I was correct that the pace of the race would work against Miss Finland but, gee, she did a terrific job to get home. I haven't looked up the sectionals yet but I'd suggest hers were pretty good. Like last Saturday I thought that the last leg of the Melbourne quaddie was really tough and had a heap of runners but this time couldn't pull it off, which was particularly annoying as I'd been clever enough to stand out Anna's Choice in race 7. It was a particularly frustrating day with a number of runners putting themselves into the race only to get swallowed up late and finish in the first four.
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.
Ipswich 1-1 In A Circle
Port Lincoln 3-8 Sunny Diva
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Port Lincoln 6-1
Wyong 7-7
Today: A couple of those rare non-Victorian POOMAs today starting with an 800m dash in the first race at Ipswich. 1-In A Circle's trainer seems to think that having an apprentice jockey on board is the way to go, as this is the 12th run in a row that the horse has had one on. He is back from Class 6 company to Class 4 today though that doesn't make as much difference over the short trip as it does over longer. He should sit outside the lead and be strong to the line at what I would suggest will be pretty good odds of around $3. Port Lincoln 3-8 Sunny Diva hasn't drawn ideally but has the pace to get up outside the lead. She ran quick time when resuming and even though this is a couple of grades up looks well within her reach. 6-1 Cardiac Arrest is a terrific old horse that's won 15 from 52 with another 15 placings. It was a strong performance first up and if he can get a position from his wide gate then a repeat performance could easily be on the cards.
Yesterday: Well, I was correct that the pace of the race would work against Miss Finland but, gee, she did a terrific job to get home. I haven't looked up the sectionals yet but I'd suggest hers were pretty good. Like last Saturday I thought that the last leg of the Melbourne quaddie was really tough and had a heap of runners but this time couldn't pull it off, which was particularly annoying as I'd been clever enough to stand out Anna's Choice in race 7. It was a particularly frustrating day with a number of runners putting themselves into the race only to get swallowed up late and finish in the first four.
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.
Wednesday, October 18, 2006
SELECTIONS - 18 October 2006
POOMA selections:
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Caulfield 2-2, 3-4, 5-1, 5-2, 6-16
Murray Bridge 8-8
Warwick Farm 2-5
Today: At Caulfield, which is a really tricky meeting at which I'm assuming that the dead track will be upgraded to good, I'm going for a bit of value with some near POOMA but not quite selections. 2-2 Aadelaidee should be right on the pace and in the finish somewhere. I rate this one a genuine $4 shot and I think we'll get much better than that. Her last run before a spell was a 2nd in the open age Listed fillies' race in Adelaide in which Reshuffles wooshed home from back in the field to win. 3rd home was Follow The Till and if you put that filly in this race then she'd start even money. 3-4 Little Sai Wan arrives from Sydney from the in form Anthony Cummings stable. He won his first start comfortably at Newcastle before running down the track behind Court Commands at Randwick but he did draw wide and had a pretty chequered passage. He then settled really well in Class 3 company at Warwick Farm and got to the line strongly in sharp time to win in the last few bounds. The mile trip and inside draw at his first go around Caulfield will help and $8+ looks good to me. 6-16 Safwa is a really good mare that is going to get back in the field from her wide gate but will have conditions to suit, I think, with a pretty strong pace. Glen Boss is a big race genius and that will be a big advantage for a Sydneysider having its first start the left-handed way of going, especially at the tricky Caulfield circuit. Miss Finland is a terrific filly but I think she might be up against it tomorrow. Cheeky Choice looks to get an easy lead and will set a moderate tempo as far as I can see. My Only Hope sits right behind the speed with She Will Be Loved crossing to sit outside her. Meanwhile, Miss Finland is probably 5L off them. Cheeky Choice is no slouch, as she showed last time when sustaining a long sprint to win the Flight Stakes, which will make it really tough for Miss Finland to run her down. I can see My Only Hope popping off the rail to grab them near the post at nice odds. At Warwick Farm the track is also dead and I'd expect an upgrade there also. 2-5 Blonde Degree has killed them out in the country at two of her last three starts with a failure in between on a bog track at Canterbury. She is in this race up to her ears. 7-4 Scorpio Star was beaten narrowly by Patronize at Newcastle first up and can turn the tables today. Mind you, the race has the look of one of those funny-smelling ones I've been concerned about in Sydney for a little while...Up at Doomben 7-4 Spur Me On is very well in and should go close. Pretty hard races everywhere so caution is definitely advised.
I've had some requests for selections in all of the races at Caulfield so here we go:
1=5,1,3
2=2,7,5
3=4,6,8
4=13,16,5
5=5,1,2
6=16,10,1
7=10,7,12
8=4,3,5
Yesterday: Not much to report. The hurdle at Warrnambool saw Waaria win comfortably after settling out the back. He was a beaten POOMA at his last run and I should have backed up on him even though I don't like them at their next start after they've had a tumble. One to follow is Colonialism, which returned from a 51 day break, stepped up in trip, worked hard outside the leader, was challenged again entering the straight and then drew away to win comfortably. Nice effort.
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Caulfield 2-2, 3-4, 5-1, 5-2, 6-16
Murray Bridge 8-8
Warwick Farm 2-5
Today: At Caulfield, which is a really tricky meeting at which I'm assuming that the dead track will be upgraded to good, I'm going for a bit of value with some near POOMA but not quite selections. 2-2 Aadelaidee should be right on the pace and in the finish somewhere. I rate this one a genuine $4 shot and I think we'll get much better than that. Her last run before a spell was a 2nd in the open age Listed fillies' race in Adelaide in which Reshuffles wooshed home from back in the field to win. 3rd home was Follow The Till and if you put that filly in this race then she'd start even money. 3-4 Little Sai Wan arrives from Sydney from the in form Anthony Cummings stable. He won his first start comfortably at Newcastle before running down the track behind Court Commands at Randwick but he did draw wide and had a pretty chequered passage. He then settled really well in Class 3 company at Warwick Farm and got to the line strongly in sharp time to win in the last few bounds. The mile trip and inside draw at his first go around Caulfield will help and $8+ looks good to me. 6-16 Safwa is a really good mare that is going to get back in the field from her wide gate but will have conditions to suit, I think, with a pretty strong pace. Glen Boss is a big race genius and that will be a big advantage for a Sydneysider having its first start the left-handed way of going, especially at the tricky Caulfield circuit. Miss Finland is a terrific filly but I think she might be up against it tomorrow. Cheeky Choice looks to get an easy lead and will set a moderate tempo as far as I can see. My Only Hope sits right behind the speed with She Will Be Loved crossing to sit outside her. Meanwhile, Miss Finland is probably 5L off them. Cheeky Choice is no slouch, as she showed last time when sustaining a long sprint to win the Flight Stakes, which will make it really tough for Miss Finland to run her down. I can see My Only Hope popping off the rail to grab them near the post at nice odds. At Warwick Farm the track is also dead and I'd expect an upgrade there also. 2-5 Blonde Degree has killed them out in the country at two of her last three starts with a failure in between on a bog track at Canterbury. She is in this race up to her ears. 7-4 Scorpio Star was beaten narrowly by Patronize at Newcastle first up and can turn the tables today. Mind you, the race has the look of one of those funny-smelling ones I've been concerned about in Sydney for a little while...Up at Doomben 7-4 Spur Me On is very well in and should go close. Pretty hard races everywhere so caution is definitely advised.
I've had some requests for selections in all of the races at Caulfield so here we go:
1=5,1,3
2=2,7,5
3=4,6,8
4=13,16,5
5=5,1,2
6=16,10,1
7=10,7,12
8=4,3,5
Yesterday: Not much to report. The hurdle at Warrnambool saw Waaria win comfortably after settling out the back. He was a beaten POOMA at his last run and I should have backed up on him even though I don't like them at their next start after they've had a tumble. One to follow is Colonialism, which returned from a 51 day break, stepped up in trip, worked hard outside the leader, was challenged again entering the straight and then drew away to win comfortably. Nice effort.
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.
Tuesday, October 17, 2006
SELECTIONS - 17 October 2006
POOMA selections:
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Nil
Today: Up at Goulburn there's a first starter trained by my old trainer, Keith Dryden (Into The Night etc), called Shwedagon. It's very well named being by Fantastic Light out of Temple Of Peace. My father was Australian ambassador to Burma (now Myanmar) and where we lived in Rangoon (now Yangon) had a terrific view across to the Shwedagon Pagoda, which is an amazing place to visit (check out the link). The Burmese people are, without doubt, the nicest people on the face of the earth. It's a pity that their government is so oppressive. At Goulburn, 6-9 Honest Bomber is listed as a $20 chance, which seems amazing to me. If he's better than $8 then I'll have an e/w go. In the first race at Warrnambool, the hurdle, there looks to be a fair quinella opportunity with 3-Brother Jim and 4-Sherbourne who ran the placings last time behind Reflective, which is scratched from today's race. The topweight, Waaria, was going nicely for us last time before seemingly going off stride and coming down at the last at this track and if he's recovered from that then he'll be in the multiples mix, as well. Apart from the hurdle it looks like another day to keep the wallet welded shut. Tomorrow should make up for it, as I can see some that are fair chances.
Yesterday: Wasn't much of a day yesterday and I kept the wallet under lock and key. The two shorties I pointed out at Echuca got home but I was never going to back Stralalia at $1.50. I was unable to see the 3rd race and might have had a go at General Ralph at $2.20 if I hadn't have been ties up at the time.
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Nil
Today: Up at Goulburn there's a first starter trained by my old trainer, Keith Dryden (Into The Night etc), called Shwedagon. It's very well named being by Fantastic Light out of Temple Of Peace. My father was Australian ambassador to Burma (now Myanmar) and where we lived in Rangoon (now Yangon) had a terrific view across to the Shwedagon Pagoda, which is an amazing place to visit (check out the link). The Burmese people are, without doubt, the nicest people on the face of the earth. It's a pity that their government is so oppressive. At Goulburn, 6-9 Honest Bomber is listed as a $20 chance, which seems amazing to me. If he's better than $8 then I'll have an e/w go. In the first race at Warrnambool, the hurdle, there looks to be a fair quinella opportunity with 3-Brother Jim and 4-Sherbourne who ran the placings last time behind Reflective, which is scratched from today's race. The topweight, Waaria, was going nicely for us last time before seemingly going off stride and coming down at the last at this track and if he's recovered from that then he'll be in the multiples mix, as well. Apart from the hurdle it looks like another day to keep the wallet welded shut. Tomorrow should make up for it, as I can see some that are fair chances.
Yesterday: Wasn't much of a day yesterday and I kept the wallet under lock and key. The two shorties I pointed out at Echuca got home but I was never going to back Stralalia at $1.50. I was unable to see the 3rd race and might have had a go at General Ralph at $2.20 if I hadn't have been ties up at the time.
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.
Monday, October 16, 2006
SELECTIONS - 16 October 2006
POOMA selections:
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
There are no non-POOMAs today, either
Today: Three meetings today and nary a system selection in sight. Echuca 2-7 Stralalia will lead them up, you'd think, and might notch up an overdue win. The only problem is she's a bit weak and will be served up at around $2, which wouldn't interest me at all. 3-5 General Ralph ran 3rd behing Tully Storm last time and that galloper came out and beat a small but useful field yesterday so unless one of the debut runners goes well he'd have to look the winner at some stage. A couple of ruffies in the last race: 8-7 Play Hard didn't have a whole heap of luck last time and 8-10 She's Just Ace wasn't far away in the same race and has drawn much better in this. Depending on the value in race 2 and 3 it looks like a good day to keep the wallet locked.
Yesterday: Last start winners for us, Bellini Rose and Bon Hoffa, provided a repeat dose yesterday at Cranbourne and both were very good efforts. Bellini Rose stepped up in grade and trip and really had the race won a long way out. Bon Hoffa looked in trouble entering the short Cranbourne run home but sprouted wings over the last 200m to pick up race favourite Stanzout near the line. It's hard to tell how far he can go and it's going to be difficult as he steps up in grade to keep coming from the rear like he does but he certainly does have a fair old motor. The second horse home, Stanzout, is no slouch either. He's a little horse with a big ticker. I'm sure that the form out of this race will be worth following. Talkng of ticker, the win of Parmar Day under 59.5kg was terrific. He had them covered a long way from home and cruised to the line without being asked to fully extend. It's not beyond him to sneak a Listed race over the carnival.
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
There are no non-POOMAs today, either
Today: Three meetings today and nary a system selection in sight. Echuca 2-7 Stralalia will lead them up, you'd think, and might notch up an overdue win. The only problem is she's a bit weak and will be served up at around $2, which wouldn't interest me at all. 3-5 General Ralph ran 3rd behing Tully Storm last time and that galloper came out and beat a small but useful field yesterday so unless one of the debut runners goes well he'd have to look the winner at some stage. A couple of ruffies in the last race: 8-7 Play Hard didn't have a whole heap of luck last time and 8-10 She's Just Ace wasn't far away in the same race and has drawn much better in this. Depending on the value in race 2 and 3 it looks like a good day to keep the wallet locked.
Yesterday: Last start winners for us, Bellini Rose and Bon Hoffa, provided a repeat dose yesterday at Cranbourne and both were very good efforts. Bellini Rose stepped up in grade and trip and really had the race won a long way out. Bon Hoffa looked in trouble entering the short Cranbourne run home but sprouted wings over the last 200m to pick up race favourite Stanzout near the line. It's hard to tell how far he can go and it's going to be difficult as he steps up in grade to keep coming from the rear like he does but he certainly does have a fair old motor. The second horse home, Stanzout, is no slouch either. He's a little horse with a big ticker. I'm sure that the form out of this race will be worth following. Talkng of ticker, the win of Parmar Day under 59.5kg was terrific. He had them covered a long way from home and cruised to the line without being asked to fully extend. It's not beyond him to sneak a Listed race over the carnival.
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.
Sunday, October 15, 2006
SELECTIONS - 15 October 2006
POOMA selections:
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Cranbourne 5-5
Today: It's unusual for there to be eight meetings on a day and for there to be only one selection from all of my systems. There's definitely nothing to make a POOMA selection though I do think that Kilmore 6-2 Bear's Command will run a good race. A couple that have won for us recently, Bellini Rose and Bon Hoffa are in at Cranbourne. Bellini Rose rounded them up easily last time but this is a much tougher field. She beat the leader-but-non-winner, Allenby's Mate, that day and you wouldn't rate him much chance in this field. Bon Hoffa is obviously on the up but he bumps into a hot field (which these showcase races always are) that includes Stanzout that has been ultra impressive in his hat trick of wins and Star Mystic, which has been running around creditibly in Group races in Sydney. In race 7 there might be a sneaky e/w chance in the form of No More Rules. He is really well in at the weights, goes well fresh and at the track and trip, and will be double figure odds. I'll evaluate value on a race by race basis but don't expect to be having much of a crack at anything today.
Yesterday: Overall results from POOMAs and non-POOMAs were really good yesterday. I stood out Wonderful World in the Caulfield quaddie and, fortunately, Personal Ensign was one of the seven horses I had in the impossible-looking last leg, which returned over $4K for my $84 outlay (3x1x4x7). My analysis was OK with 6 of the 9 winners in my three selections with 3 of them on top - Miss Andretti $1.80, Growl $3.90 and Wonderful World $6.50. Some really good performances that are worth commenting on at Caulfield starting with Ammeryking in race 2. He's now won 6 from 9 and beat a pretty handy field. It's hard to tell how far he can go, and I don't think he's up to Group 1/2 company, but he is a pretty foolproof racehorse. Splashing Out kept her unbeaten record intact with her win in race 3. She also beat a handy field and can keep winning. Miss Andretti won as expected; she really is a top sprinting mare. For anyone who has backed El Segundo in the Cox Plate they must have been reaching for the blood pressure tablets after his sub-par performance behind Casual Pass. I've never rated Darren Gauci as a jockey and he initially seemed to lack urgency at the top of the straight before working out he was in trouble and getting stuck into the horse. He did not show his normal electrifying sprint and his Cox Plate chances have been severely dented, for mine. He has now been replaced at the top of Cox Plate markets by Racing To Win. I don't think that horse can win so there might be a value result this year. Growl put himself right into Caulfield Cup calculations with a dominant win after a terrific ride by Craig Williams. Things panned out beautifully for him after Loanhead went forward early and gave Growl the one-one sit. He has only 49kg (is he eligible for a penalty after the win?), has tactical speed to position in the first half dozen early and can then run a quick last 600m so he'll be a really big chance in that race. Wonderful World is a really good horse and his Caulfield Guineas win was pretty dominant. When I saw him on TVN in the parade ring and moving out onto the track my confidence increased, as he looked absolutely fabulous. He is a terrific looker and ran right up to those looks. Take away his Sydney runs where he couldn't handle the right handed way of going and his form looks really good. Court Command ran pretty well for 3rd and my expectation that the Sydney form wasn't up to the Melbourne form was spot on. The horse ran his best race to date and will be reasonably competitive in the good races. Red Dazzler did the right thing by winning the Toorak Handicap after a run of frustrating placings. Of course, I didn't put Rewaaya in my quaddie so I was cheering for him to catch that mare. They're all a rung below the top horses but are always around the placings. Personal Ensign did a really good job to win the last race, leading nearly all of the way. I put her in my quaddie because the speed map placed her in a really good spot behind the pace. It was really unfortunate that Magic Of Music broke down hopelessly in Cheltenham. I really, really hate seeing horses go wrong. Lombardy did the right thing at the Gold Coast and paid really well at $2+, as he really looked like an odds on chance. I also seem to have spotted a good 'un in nominating Lodge The Deeds at Kembla Grange. He has won his last three in Maiden, Class 2 and now Class 5 company. He might not have beaten much but he was less than a second outside of the track record on a day of average times, won in a canter at the end and I reckon he's up to black type company. Apparently, he's heading to Melbourne for a race over the carnival and I'll be following him for a little while yet. There haven't been many really good Grand Lodges, with Shogun Lodge being his best, but this one is right up there.
POOMAs: El Segundo was very disappointing, I thought, in running 3rd. On the other hand our other POOMA selection, Wonderful World, was really good and the $6.50 dividend was very well received.
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Cranbourne 5-5
Today: It's unusual for there to be eight meetings on a day and for there to be only one selection from all of my systems. There's definitely nothing to make a POOMA selection though I do think that Kilmore 6-2 Bear's Command will run a good race. A couple that have won for us recently, Bellini Rose and Bon Hoffa are in at Cranbourne. Bellini Rose rounded them up easily last time but this is a much tougher field. She beat the leader-but-non-winner, Allenby's Mate, that day and you wouldn't rate him much chance in this field. Bon Hoffa is obviously on the up but he bumps into a hot field (which these showcase races always are) that includes Stanzout that has been ultra impressive in his hat trick of wins and Star Mystic, which has been running around creditibly in Group races in Sydney. In race 7 there might be a sneaky e/w chance in the form of No More Rules. He is really well in at the weights, goes well fresh and at the track and trip, and will be double figure odds. I'll evaluate value on a race by race basis but don't expect to be having much of a crack at anything today.
Yesterday: Overall results from POOMAs and non-POOMAs were really good yesterday. I stood out Wonderful World in the Caulfield quaddie and, fortunately, Personal Ensign was one of the seven horses I had in the impossible-looking last leg, which returned over $4K for my $84 outlay (3x1x4x7). My analysis was OK with 6 of the 9 winners in my three selections with 3 of them on top - Miss Andretti $1.80, Growl $3.90 and Wonderful World $6.50. Some really good performances that are worth commenting on at Caulfield starting with Ammeryking in race 2. He's now won 6 from 9 and beat a pretty handy field. It's hard to tell how far he can go, and I don't think he's up to Group 1/2 company, but he is a pretty foolproof racehorse. Splashing Out kept her unbeaten record intact with her win in race 3. She also beat a handy field and can keep winning. Miss Andretti won as expected; she really is a top sprinting mare. For anyone who has backed El Segundo in the Cox Plate they must have been reaching for the blood pressure tablets after his sub-par performance behind Casual Pass. I've never rated Darren Gauci as a jockey and he initially seemed to lack urgency at the top of the straight before working out he was in trouble and getting stuck into the horse. He did not show his normal electrifying sprint and his Cox Plate chances have been severely dented, for mine. He has now been replaced at the top of Cox Plate markets by Racing To Win. I don't think that horse can win so there might be a value result this year. Growl put himself right into Caulfield Cup calculations with a dominant win after a terrific ride by Craig Williams. Things panned out beautifully for him after Loanhead went forward early and gave Growl the one-one sit. He has only 49kg (is he eligible for a penalty after the win?), has tactical speed to position in the first half dozen early and can then run a quick last 600m so he'll be a really big chance in that race. Wonderful World is a really good horse and his Caulfield Guineas win was pretty dominant. When I saw him on TVN in the parade ring and moving out onto the track my confidence increased, as he looked absolutely fabulous. He is a terrific looker and ran right up to those looks. Take away his Sydney runs where he couldn't handle the right handed way of going and his form looks really good. Court Command ran pretty well for 3rd and my expectation that the Sydney form wasn't up to the Melbourne form was spot on. The horse ran his best race to date and will be reasonably competitive in the good races. Red Dazzler did the right thing by winning the Toorak Handicap after a run of frustrating placings. Of course, I didn't put Rewaaya in my quaddie so I was cheering for him to catch that mare. They're all a rung below the top horses but are always around the placings. Personal Ensign did a really good job to win the last race, leading nearly all of the way. I put her in my quaddie because the speed map placed her in a really good spot behind the pace. It was really unfortunate that Magic Of Music broke down hopelessly in Cheltenham. I really, really hate seeing horses go wrong. Lombardy did the right thing at the Gold Coast and paid really well at $2+, as he really looked like an odds on chance. I also seem to have spotted a good 'un in nominating Lodge The Deeds at Kembla Grange. He has won his last three in Maiden, Class 2 and now Class 5 company. He might not have beaten much but he was less than a second outside of the track record on a day of average times, won in a canter at the end and I reckon he's up to black type company. Apparently, he's heading to Melbourne for a race over the carnival and I'll be following him for a little while yet. There haven't been many really good Grand Lodges, with Shogun Lodge being his best, but this one is right up there.
POOMAs: El Segundo was very disappointing, I thought, in running 3rd. On the other hand our other POOMA selection, Wonderful World, was really good and the $6.50 dividend was very well received.
Saturday, October 14, 2006
SELECTIONS - 14 October 2006
POOMA selections:
Caulfield 5-5 El Segundo
Caulfield 7-4 Wonderful World
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Caulfield 3-2, 3-8, 4-7, 6-7, 7-1
Cheltenham 6-2
Eagle Farm 3-1
Gold Coast 1-5
Kembla Grange 2-4
Today: A couple of POOMAs today, described below. We'll need to tread warily at Caulfield today, as half the card looks pretty open. I like a couple from interstate starting with Cheltenham 6-2 Magic Of Music. He rounded them up nicely last time and a repeat performance looks on the cards here. Gold Coast 1-5 Lombardy has strung a couple together and has a nice weight advantage over Mrs Mango so I expect him to run her down. Kembla Grange 2-4 Lodge The Deeds could be a really, really good horse and certainly the way he flashed home from nowhere last time stamped, I think, the arrival of a bit of a star. He steps quickly up in grade here and the small field might work against him but if he's as good as I think he is then he'll be winning today.
Full Caulfield analysis as follows:
Race 1: Speed (Moderate) - pace looks to come from Far Horizons in this with Cenotaph and Something Anything behind the leader. The three at the top of the weights dominate the market but I was quite unimpressed with that race three weeks ago and reckon they represent poor value. General Albert got home well to beat Twist Contest first up and will be better suited with the step up in trip. Twist Contest didn't exactly frank that form at MV last night. Exaltation has been pretty good on the slow tracks in his three runs and might have the quality to get over the top of them. Shake It Off looks likely to get back, which will make it hard given the tempo I expect. Don't like the race much and I'll go for value with the leader to go wire to wire. Selections: 7-Far Horizons, 5-Exaltation, 2-Harb
Race 2: Speed (Moderate) - from his wide gate and likelihood of a moderate tempo I expect Pinions to jump quickly and either take up the lead or travel outside the leader, which will probably come from King's Champ. It's not obvious who will lead, as Bodacious Harmony flogged along last time in the lead but then weakened and it's probably unlikely they'll do that again. Stickpin is clearly going to have the run of the race behind the speed. I can't see how the ones drawn wide are going to have any choice but to go back and make their runs early. I really hate this race as a betting proposition but for the record...Selections: 9-Pinions, 7-Stickpin, 3-Amerryking
Race 3: Speed (Strong) - I expect Follow The Till to make like an organic slingshot and lead from the outside gate at a strong tempo. Tango Fire has been leading them up and doesn't have a choice but to go forward and press for the lead. Industrious has the early pace to take advantage of her good draw and will sit just behind them with Flame Of Sydney. Corton Charlemagne looks a bit cacked here, as she won't be able to settle close and will have to come from back in the field, which she isn't noted for doing. Satin Robes looks likely to get the perfect run given her style of racing. She's back in trip and grade from her last start assignment behind Miss Finland and I can see her storming over the top of them late. McFly and Splashing Out are obviously in form so they could be in the fray at the end also and Testajoy will lob along out the back and could run into a place. Selections: 5-Satin Robes, 2-Industrious, 11-Testajoy
Race 4: Speed (Strong) - mad leader, Poet's Voice, will take up the running and cart them along at a fair pace, which will help those parked off the speed roll over the top of them. Tesbury Jack and the 3YO filly, Nediym's Glow, look likely to make up the leading trio. Proprietor probably settles 4th and it's anybody's guess about the rest. Miss Andretti could take up 5th outside Proprietor. This looks like a one horse race with Miss Andretti looking to have too much class for them even if she does drop back from 1400m off a three week break. Selections: 7-Miss Andretti, 5-Tesbury Jack, 1-Proprietor
Race 5: Speed (Moderate) - Casual Pass is a clear leader and there's nothing to pressure him so the pace will be average. Grand Zulu and Pompeii Ruler settle a couple of lengths back with the rest sorting themselves out from there. Cox Plate favourite, El Segundo, will lob along in the back few on the fence and the only way he'll be beaten is if Darren Gauci lets Casual Pass get too far in front and takes off too late. Can't really see that being an issue, though, and I reckon we'll get $1.80, which would be good value. It's a pity that Zipping is not guaranteed a start in the Caulfield Cup, as he looked a moral with his weight, and I expect to see a strong run home from him. Pompeii Ruler apparently jarred up last time but I haven't been impressed with his sectionals so far. Super Kid was good first up and looks to have a chance. Fields Of Omagh is set for one race, his swansong, the Cox Plate. Selections: 5-El Segundo, 7-Zipping, 6-Casual Pass
Race 6: Speed (Moderate) - a bit difficult to work the speed out here. Umbula is probably the only horse that can take it up with Growl crossing over from his gate to sit up outside the leader. Savlate looks to get a good run behind the leader along with Gothic Marian and Field Hunter will be one out and two back. Luck is going to play a big part for those that settle off the pace like Siamun and Drac's Back. If Sarrera had have drawn closer then I'd give him a fair chance. Pavlova might push up, as well, from her inside gate. I can see Growl kicking away and being hard to run down. His run behind Zipping was really good last time and that form is stacking up well with Tawqeet's win in the Metropolitan. Selections: 7-Growl, 10-Savlate, 14-Drac's Back
Race 7: Speed (Strong) - Court Command obviously takes up the pace but will get pushed along by Escadaire and Muzdaher. Even though he's looked the goods in Sydney I doubt the strength of the Sydney form and those that ran behind Court Command last time would start 50-1 in this race. Wonderful World was dominant last time and he's a POOMA selection today at good value. Anamato has not drawn well but will probably settle back anyway so the strong pace will help. She nearly knocked off Miss Finland last time and that filly would start favourite in this race even with Court Command in the race. Churchill Downs got the most disgraceful protest decision I've even seen last time but he has class and will have a nice sit from the one gate. I commented last week that Snort had a lot of talent and he duly saluted at good odds. He's a chance today. I'm going for value by going against the favourite. Selections: 4-Wonderful World, 7-Danever, 6-Snort
Race 8: Speed (Slow) - Judusk was the obvious leader in this race but with him out there is no obvious replacement. Maybe Better is probably the leader from Red Dazzler and Rewaaya with Undue somewhere close. Darci Brahma also looks to get a really good run behind the speed. Those that get out the back are going to need to take off early so it could be pretty amusing about the 600m mark. Red Dazzler has the form to win, even though he's been a bit weak lately. Darci Brahma is really well weighted in this and is going to give it a big shake. Selections: 1-Darci Brahma, 4-Red Dazzler, 11-Temple Hills
Race 9: Speed (Moderate) - I cannot work this out. Miss Mooney Mooney has drawn the car park and will probably have to flog along early to lead. Coolroom Candidate has drawn one inside that horse and also races forward so she's probably up there somewhere. Personal Ensign, Bashful and Nuclear Free are drawn to get nice runs. The formlines come from all over the shop so working out this race is just too hard. In fact, I can't remember such a hard race to work out in recent months. For the record I'll go...Selections: 12-Melrose Gardens, 1-Coolroom Candidate, 10-Bashful (can I have 10 more tips?)
Yesterday: Fridays tend to be poor races to find good form from but there were a few to follow, as long as they're placed in the right class. At Wangaratta, Nuclear Roo returned from a spell to win easily under his 58kg given all of his rivals 2kg+ over the 1000m dash. This was only a Class 2 event and he can go on with it in a Class 3 or 4, especially with a good claiming apprentice. At Moonee Valley, Miss Evergreen led from the inside gate, was pressured and broke away to win in a nice effort. I wouldn't normally nominate anything from a Friday Queanbeyan meeting to follow but I know that the stable has a good opinion of Gold Room. He carried his 59kg with ease to thrash them over 1100m in a Class 1. He could easily get away with one of those midweek Class 3 city races.
POOMAs: And, as I pointed out yesterday, timing is everything and that was the case when Lea Lisa snuck home at Rockhampton to win her 4th race from 24 starts, paying $5.10 and ensuring a profit for the day. Top Crown went like a busted boiler at Taree and Twist Contest was a really poor effort after having a nice run behind the speed at Moonee Valley. Stavka proved one thing very clearly. He's a big track horse. He was in trouble 999m out in the 1000m dash given where he settled and what he was going to need to do to win. A profit for the day, which is the aim, so we can't complain too much.
Caulfield 5-5 El Segundo
Caulfield 7-4 Wonderful World
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Caulfield 3-2, 3-8, 4-7, 6-7, 7-1
Cheltenham 6-2
Eagle Farm 3-1
Gold Coast 1-5
Kembla Grange 2-4
Today: A couple of POOMAs today, described below. We'll need to tread warily at Caulfield today, as half the card looks pretty open. I like a couple from interstate starting with Cheltenham 6-2 Magic Of Music. He rounded them up nicely last time and a repeat performance looks on the cards here. Gold Coast 1-5 Lombardy has strung a couple together and has a nice weight advantage over Mrs Mango so I expect him to run her down. Kembla Grange 2-4 Lodge The Deeds could be a really, really good horse and certainly the way he flashed home from nowhere last time stamped, I think, the arrival of a bit of a star. He steps quickly up in grade here and the small field might work against him but if he's as good as I think he is then he'll be winning today.
Full Caulfield analysis as follows:
Race 1: Speed (Moderate) - pace looks to come from Far Horizons in this with Cenotaph and Something Anything behind the leader. The three at the top of the weights dominate the market but I was quite unimpressed with that race three weeks ago and reckon they represent poor value. General Albert got home well to beat Twist Contest first up and will be better suited with the step up in trip. Twist Contest didn't exactly frank that form at MV last night. Exaltation has been pretty good on the slow tracks in his three runs and might have the quality to get over the top of them. Shake It Off looks likely to get back, which will make it hard given the tempo I expect. Don't like the race much and I'll go for value with the leader to go wire to wire. Selections: 7-Far Horizons, 5-Exaltation, 2-Harb
Race 2: Speed (Moderate) - from his wide gate and likelihood of a moderate tempo I expect Pinions to jump quickly and either take up the lead or travel outside the leader, which will probably come from King's Champ. It's not obvious who will lead, as Bodacious Harmony flogged along last time in the lead but then weakened and it's probably unlikely they'll do that again. Stickpin is clearly going to have the run of the race behind the speed. I can't see how the ones drawn wide are going to have any choice but to go back and make their runs early. I really hate this race as a betting proposition but for the record...Selections: 9-Pinions, 7-Stickpin, 3-Amerryking
Race 3: Speed (Strong) - I expect Follow The Till to make like an organic slingshot and lead from the outside gate at a strong tempo. Tango Fire has been leading them up and doesn't have a choice but to go forward and press for the lead. Industrious has the early pace to take advantage of her good draw and will sit just behind them with Flame Of Sydney. Corton Charlemagne looks a bit cacked here, as she won't be able to settle close and will have to come from back in the field, which she isn't noted for doing. Satin Robes looks likely to get the perfect run given her style of racing. She's back in trip and grade from her last start assignment behind Miss Finland and I can see her storming over the top of them late. McFly and Splashing Out are obviously in form so they could be in the fray at the end also and Testajoy will lob along out the back and could run into a place. Selections: 5-Satin Robes, 2-Industrious, 11-Testajoy
Race 4: Speed (Strong) - mad leader, Poet's Voice, will take up the running and cart them along at a fair pace, which will help those parked off the speed roll over the top of them. Tesbury Jack and the 3YO filly, Nediym's Glow, look likely to make up the leading trio. Proprietor probably settles 4th and it's anybody's guess about the rest. Miss Andretti could take up 5th outside Proprietor. This looks like a one horse race with Miss Andretti looking to have too much class for them even if she does drop back from 1400m off a three week break. Selections: 7-Miss Andretti, 5-Tesbury Jack, 1-Proprietor
Race 5: Speed (Moderate) - Casual Pass is a clear leader and there's nothing to pressure him so the pace will be average. Grand Zulu and Pompeii Ruler settle a couple of lengths back with the rest sorting themselves out from there. Cox Plate favourite, El Segundo, will lob along in the back few on the fence and the only way he'll be beaten is if Darren Gauci lets Casual Pass get too far in front and takes off too late. Can't really see that being an issue, though, and I reckon we'll get $1.80, which would be good value. It's a pity that Zipping is not guaranteed a start in the Caulfield Cup, as he looked a moral with his weight, and I expect to see a strong run home from him. Pompeii Ruler apparently jarred up last time but I haven't been impressed with his sectionals so far. Super Kid was good first up and looks to have a chance. Fields Of Omagh is set for one race, his swansong, the Cox Plate. Selections: 5-El Segundo, 7-Zipping, 6-Casual Pass
Race 6: Speed (Moderate) - a bit difficult to work the speed out here. Umbula is probably the only horse that can take it up with Growl crossing over from his gate to sit up outside the leader. Savlate looks to get a good run behind the leader along with Gothic Marian and Field Hunter will be one out and two back. Luck is going to play a big part for those that settle off the pace like Siamun and Drac's Back. If Sarrera had have drawn closer then I'd give him a fair chance. Pavlova might push up, as well, from her inside gate. I can see Growl kicking away and being hard to run down. His run behind Zipping was really good last time and that form is stacking up well with Tawqeet's win in the Metropolitan. Selections: 7-Growl, 10-Savlate, 14-Drac's Back
Race 7: Speed (Strong) - Court Command obviously takes up the pace but will get pushed along by Escadaire and Muzdaher. Even though he's looked the goods in Sydney I doubt the strength of the Sydney form and those that ran behind Court Command last time would start 50-1 in this race. Wonderful World was dominant last time and he's a POOMA selection today at good value. Anamato has not drawn well but will probably settle back anyway so the strong pace will help. She nearly knocked off Miss Finland last time and that filly would start favourite in this race even with Court Command in the race. Churchill Downs got the most disgraceful protest decision I've even seen last time but he has class and will have a nice sit from the one gate. I commented last week that Snort had a lot of talent and he duly saluted at good odds. He's a chance today. I'm going for value by going against the favourite. Selections: 4-Wonderful World, 7-Danever, 6-Snort
Race 8: Speed (Slow) - Judusk was the obvious leader in this race but with him out there is no obvious replacement. Maybe Better is probably the leader from Red Dazzler and Rewaaya with Undue somewhere close. Darci Brahma also looks to get a really good run behind the speed. Those that get out the back are going to need to take off early so it could be pretty amusing about the 600m mark. Red Dazzler has the form to win, even though he's been a bit weak lately. Darci Brahma is really well weighted in this and is going to give it a big shake. Selections: 1-Darci Brahma, 4-Red Dazzler, 11-Temple Hills
Race 9: Speed (Moderate) - I cannot work this out. Miss Mooney Mooney has drawn the car park and will probably have to flog along early to lead. Coolroom Candidate has drawn one inside that horse and also races forward so she's probably up there somewhere. Personal Ensign, Bashful and Nuclear Free are drawn to get nice runs. The formlines come from all over the shop so working out this race is just too hard. In fact, I can't remember such a hard race to work out in recent months. For the record I'll go...Selections: 12-Melrose Gardens, 1-Coolroom Candidate, 10-Bashful (can I have 10 more tips?)
Yesterday: Fridays tend to be poor races to find good form from but there were a few to follow, as long as they're placed in the right class. At Wangaratta, Nuclear Roo returned from a spell to win easily under his 58kg given all of his rivals 2kg+ over the 1000m dash. This was only a Class 2 event and he can go on with it in a Class 3 or 4, especially with a good claiming apprentice. At Moonee Valley, Miss Evergreen led from the inside gate, was pressured and broke away to win in a nice effort. I wouldn't normally nominate anything from a Friday Queanbeyan meeting to follow but I know that the stable has a good opinion of Gold Room. He carried his 59kg with ease to thrash them over 1100m in a Class 1. He could easily get away with one of those midweek Class 3 city races.
POOMAs: And, as I pointed out yesterday, timing is everything and that was the case when Lea Lisa snuck home at Rockhampton to win her 4th race from 24 starts, paying $5.10 and ensuring a profit for the day. Top Crown went like a busted boiler at Taree and Twist Contest was a really poor effort after having a nice run behind the speed at Moonee Valley. Stavka proved one thing very clearly. He's a big track horse. He was in trouble 999m out in the 1000m dash given where he settled and what he was going to need to do to win. A profit for the day, which is the aim, so we can't complain too much.
Friday, October 13, 2006
SELECTIONS - 13 October 2006
POOMA selections:
Moonee Valley 4-1 Twist Contest
Moonee Valley 6-7 Stavka
Rockhampton 4-5 Lea Lisa
Taree 3-3 Top Crown
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Wangaratta 6-6, 7-2
Today: The track is currently rated dead at MV but given it's about a thousand degrees outside it should be really tops by tonight. My current favourite horse, Stavka, is running at MV tonight and he's a POOMA selection. By coincidence, I'm reading Antony Beavor's terrific book, Stalingrad, at present and can tell you that Stavka is the Soviet General HQ of the Armed Forces. This horse is a really sharp performer and is in a race that only looks to have a few chances. 10-Tea Leoni started 9/10 favourite in the race won by Bon Hoffa from Yappa before running a 7L 12th. I expect her to improve tonight. The other POOMA at MV is 4-1 Twist Contest, which nearly won a stronger race last time and drops back to fillies' grade here. She got home from back in the pack in sharpish time for a Class 1 event and looks the goods. I've been waiting for 3-5 Silver Service to reappear after some really good runs recently, the latest when running a 5.5L 2nd to Suspects. The 3rd horse home in that race, Zuna, has won since and the form behind Zuna's Maiden win is holding up well with recent winners coming from it. I'd be really keen to back Silver Service if he wasn't coming off a 26 day break and stepping up to a mile for the first time. He was entered in the race that was won by Lawson last week but was scratched, presumably because he drew off the track. It is my judgement that he would have won that race by a space, as the formlines around Lawson are not that strong. Rockhampton 4-5 Lea Lisa is a rare non-Victorian POOMA selection. She comes from one of my really good systems and will be fair odds of around $4 in the 7 horse field. She's a 7YO mare that has only won 3 races but, as they say in the classics, timing is everything and I think she'll rack up win number 4 today. Taree 3-3 Top Crown also comes out of a really top system and I've made it a POOMA also even if it is at that particular goat track. If he's around $4 then that'd be great. The selections at Wangaratta look to have e/w chances at best. Pick your races wisely and there's value to be had today.
Yesterday: I commented yesterday that I wasn't keen to back Suspects due to the fact it had failed to settle at its last start and pointed out that talented horses can do that in Maiden and Class 1 company. Suspects exactly proved my point by getting his head up and pulling like a Carlton supporter even for top jockey, Damien Oliver, but he was still too good at the end beating the topweight, which had beaten him home last time. Baron Ruthven was an impressive performance in race 7, coming from last to knock off an OK field in a canter. He's up to much better company. The horses that finished 2nd and 3rd in that race got beaten last time by...Stavka. That really is the strongest of the SSY form.
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.
Moonee Valley 4-1 Twist Contest
Moonee Valley 6-7 Stavka
Rockhampton 4-5 Lea Lisa
Taree 3-3 Top Crown
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Wangaratta 6-6, 7-2
Today: The track is currently rated dead at MV but given it's about a thousand degrees outside it should be really tops by tonight. My current favourite horse, Stavka, is running at MV tonight and he's a POOMA selection. By coincidence, I'm reading Antony Beavor's terrific book, Stalingrad, at present and can tell you that Stavka is the Soviet General HQ of the Armed Forces. This horse is a really sharp performer and is in a race that only looks to have a few chances. 10-Tea Leoni started 9/10 favourite in the race won by Bon Hoffa from Yappa before running a 7L 12th. I expect her to improve tonight. The other POOMA at MV is 4-1 Twist Contest, which nearly won a stronger race last time and drops back to fillies' grade here. She got home from back in the pack in sharpish time for a Class 1 event and looks the goods. I've been waiting for 3-5 Silver Service to reappear after some really good runs recently, the latest when running a 5.5L 2nd to Suspects. The 3rd horse home in that race, Zuna, has won since and the form behind Zuna's Maiden win is holding up well with recent winners coming from it. I'd be really keen to back Silver Service if he wasn't coming off a 26 day break and stepping up to a mile for the first time. He was entered in the race that was won by Lawson last week but was scratched, presumably because he drew off the track. It is my judgement that he would have won that race by a space, as the formlines around Lawson are not that strong. Rockhampton 4-5 Lea Lisa is a rare non-Victorian POOMA selection. She comes from one of my really good systems and will be fair odds of around $4 in the 7 horse field. She's a 7YO mare that has only won 3 races but, as they say in the classics, timing is everything and I think she'll rack up win number 4 today. Taree 3-3 Top Crown also comes out of a really top system and I've made it a POOMA also even if it is at that particular goat track. If he's around $4 then that'd be great. The selections at Wangaratta look to have e/w chances at best. Pick your races wisely and there's value to be had today.
Yesterday: I commented yesterday that I wasn't keen to back Suspects due to the fact it had failed to settle at its last start and pointed out that talented horses can do that in Maiden and Class 1 company. Suspects exactly proved my point by getting his head up and pulling like a Carlton supporter even for top jockey, Damien Oliver, but he was still too good at the end beating the topweight, which had beaten him home last time. Baron Ruthven was an impressive performance in race 7, coming from last to knock off an OK field in a canter. He's up to much better company. The horses that finished 2nd and 3rd in that race got beaten last time by...Stavka. That really is the strongest of the SSY form.
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.
Thursday, October 12, 2006
SELECTIONS - 12 October 2006
POOMA selections:
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Bendigo 5-1, 8-4
(* Selections are up early, before scratchings, as I'm at a meeting first thing. I'll update by about 12.30 *) - UPDATED - NO CHANGE
Today: The good 'ol SSY form is starting to drop away, which you'd expect now given it's been a few weeks, so I'll make today the last one where I comment on those runners unless there's something exceptional (there is tomorrow night at MV, come to think of it). At Bendigo in race 1, 2-Khancoban and 9-Merry Spinster both ran behind Stavka last time (Merry Spinster twice) and you'd think that'd be strong enough to put them both in this race with a big chance. 8-4 Suspects obviously has the terrific form around him but he disappointed last time out when he got all fired up and wouldn't settle before weakening at the end into 4th spot. Many talented horses can race ungenerously and simply have too much talent for Maiden and Class 1 fields but as they step up in grade they need to settle in order to be a chance. I want to see Suspects do that before jumping back on board.
Yesterday: I meant to comment yesterday that Kiloton would have to be the omen tip of the century given that North Korea was busy testing nukes and it duly saluted for the Waterhouse stable at $4+ beating Lotteria's half sister, Rose Of Sharon, handily. They spaced the others so I'd suggest they both go OK. The strong SSY form let us down badly yesterday. I mentioned that I was concerned about Yappa after his last start defeat, as he had run around under pressure and looked like he needed to go for a spell. Yesterday, he sat three deep the entire trip, still took the lead in the straight and weakened into about 6th spot, not beaten too far. I'd send the horse for a spell. Black Panther won again for a resurgent Lee Freedman and the way that the unbeaten Trick Of Light won the 1600m Class 2 F&M race would suggest that she's many classes better than that. Coming from back in the field off a slow pace she put in a dynamic sprint from the 400m to the 200m and cruised to the line under a full nelson.
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Bendigo 5-1, 8-4
(* Selections are up early, before scratchings, as I'm at a meeting first thing. I'll update by about 12.30 *) - UPDATED - NO CHANGE
Today: The good 'ol SSY form is starting to drop away, which you'd expect now given it's been a few weeks, so I'll make today the last one where I comment on those runners unless there's something exceptional (there is tomorrow night at MV, come to think of it). At Bendigo in race 1, 2-Khancoban and 9-Merry Spinster both ran behind Stavka last time (Merry Spinster twice) and you'd think that'd be strong enough to put them both in this race with a big chance. 8-4 Suspects obviously has the terrific form around him but he disappointed last time out when he got all fired up and wouldn't settle before weakening at the end into 4th spot. Many talented horses can race ungenerously and simply have too much talent for Maiden and Class 1 fields but as they step up in grade they need to settle in order to be a chance. I want to see Suspects do that before jumping back on board.
Yesterday: I meant to comment yesterday that Kiloton would have to be the omen tip of the century given that North Korea was busy testing nukes and it duly saluted for the Waterhouse stable at $4+ beating Lotteria's half sister, Rose Of Sharon, handily. They spaced the others so I'd suggest they both go OK. The strong SSY form let us down badly yesterday. I mentioned that I was concerned about Yappa after his last start defeat, as he had run around under pressure and looked like he needed to go for a spell. Yesterday, he sat three deep the entire trip, still took the lead in the straight and weakened into about 6th spot, not beaten too far. I'd send the horse for a spell. Black Panther won again for a resurgent Lee Freedman and the way that the unbeaten Trick Of Light won the 1600m Class 2 F&M race would suggest that she's many classes better than that. Coming from back in the field off a slow pace she put in a dynamic sprint from the 400m to the 200m and cruised to the line under a full nelson.
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.
Wednesday, October 11, 2006
SELECTIONS - 11 October 2006
POOMA selections:
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Ballarat 5-1, 7-7
Canterbury 3-1, 4-8, 5-10, 6-8
Today: Some good looking meetings today. Starting with the SSY form we have Ballarat 3-17 River Belle. This 5YO mare was beaten 14L in Yappa's Maiden two starts back before having little luck last time when 7th, beaten 2.3L, behind Uncle Sid at Donald. I've been waiting for this one to reappear, as she'll be juicy odds and can run a race. 5-1 Yappa (the 'Y') was a POOMA last time and managed to get itself beaten when running around under pressure in the straight. He is obviously very talented but I didn't like the way he went last time and thought he needed a spell though it's hard to leave him out of the chances in this even though he comes back to Class 1 company. 5-6 Helmut Varshing ran 5th first up behind Stavka in Class 2 company and drops a grade here. He is a talented horse, also. 5-16 Rustic Fire ran 3rd behind Stavka two starts back before missing out narrowly at Kilmore when drawing wide last run. He's drawn the inside marble and must be a chance at what will probably be double figure odds. I'll be keen to see how the Stavka form stacks up against the Yappa form. Those three look to be the only real chances in what will probably be a pretty strong form race. At Canterbury, Darren Beadman looks to have a top chance of riding half the card again. I think the best two are Nod and Face Of The Earth.
Yesterday: I was tied up yesterday and didn't get to watch many of the races. Looking at the results there doesn't seem to have been much to follow.
POOMAs: Star Image couldn't get home for us yesterday when running home for 3rd.
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Ballarat 5-1, 7-7
Canterbury 3-1, 4-8, 5-10, 6-8
Today: Some good looking meetings today. Starting with the SSY form we have Ballarat 3-17 River Belle. This 5YO mare was beaten 14L in Yappa's Maiden two starts back before having little luck last time when 7th, beaten 2.3L, behind Uncle Sid at Donald. I've been waiting for this one to reappear, as she'll be juicy odds and can run a race. 5-1 Yappa (the 'Y') was a POOMA last time and managed to get itself beaten when running around under pressure in the straight. He is obviously very talented but I didn't like the way he went last time and thought he needed a spell though it's hard to leave him out of the chances in this even though he comes back to Class 1 company. 5-6 Helmut Varshing ran 5th first up behind Stavka in Class 2 company and drops a grade here. He is a talented horse, also. 5-16 Rustic Fire ran 3rd behind Stavka two starts back before missing out narrowly at Kilmore when drawing wide last run. He's drawn the inside marble and must be a chance at what will probably be double figure odds. I'll be keen to see how the Stavka form stacks up against the Yappa form. Those three look to be the only real chances in what will probably be a pretty strong form race. At Canterbury, Darren Beadman looks to have a top chance of riding half the card again. I think the best two are Nod and Face Of The Earth.
Yesterday: I was tied up yesterday and didn't get to watch many of the races. Looking at the results there doesn't seem to have been much to follow.
POOMAs: Star Image couldn't get home for us yesterday when running home for 3rd.
Tuesday, October 10, 2006
SELECTIONS - 10 October 2006
POOMA selections:
Mildura 6-3 Star Image
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Mildura 5-10
Today: Three meetings today and, again, there's not a whole heap of opportunity that stands out. Our POOMA selection at Mildura, 6-3 Star Image, is going pretty well and should have a fair chance. I'll work out a Mildura quaddie and leave it at that, I think.
Yesterday: The Stavka formline continues to provide the goods with quinellas in races 5 (from the two nominated horses) and 7 (from 4 horses) paying $37 and $23. Bis Vincere won paying $10 (beating our POOMA) and Test Fire followed up at $4.50. We continue to make money by following the runners in those SSY races. In other races, Walk Up Start improved its own weight to win its Maiden by about 7L in a field that wasn't devoid of talent so it will be worth following and Admiral's Lady stepped up in grade to win again. Mares that get into form can keep it going for quite a while so I'll continue to follow that one. Didn't see much else to follow apart from those.
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.
Mildura 6-3 Star Image
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Mildura 5-10
Today: Three meetings today and, again, there's not a whole heap of opportunity that stands out. Our POOMA selection at Mildura, 6-3 Star Image, is going pretty well and should have a fair chance. I'll work out a Mildura quaddie and leave it at that, I think.
Yesterday: The Stavka formline continues to provide the goods with quinellas in races 5 (from the two nominated horses) and 7 (from 4 horses) paying $37 and $23. Bis Vincere won paying $10 (beating our POOMA) and Test Fire followed up at $4.50. We continue to make money by following the runners in those SSY races. In other races, Walk Up Start improved its own weight to win its Maiden by about 7L in a field that wasn't devoid of talent so it will be worth following and Admiral's Lady stepped up in grade to win again. Mares that get into form can keep it going for quite a while so I'll continue to follow that one. Didn't see much else to follow apart from those.
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.
Monday, October 09, 2006
SELECTIONS - 9 October 2006
POOMA selections:
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Pakenham 7-1
Today: Three meetings today and nothing to get too excited about. Pakenham 5-11 Loch Shiel carries the SSY form after finishing 4th to Suspects last time out. She's had 23 days off, steps from 1400 to 1750 and is a 6YO mare that's only had 8 starts so you'd think that things are stacked against her. I won't be having a go today and suggest you keep the zip on the wallet firmly closed today also. I'll be driving back to Melbourne from Canberra later on and boppin' along to the sounds of The Rolling Stones, creators of the greatest rock 'n' roll song by a rock 'n' roll band - Jumpin' Jack Flash. For clarity, the greatest song by a rock 'n' roll band is Stairway To Heaven. The Rolling Stones win another of my categories - greatest intro to a rock 'n' roll song - with Gimmee Shelter. What a cracker it is.
Yesterday: The Stavka formline continues to provide the goods with quinellas in races 5 (from the two nominated horses) and 7 (from 4 horses) paying $37 and $23. Bis Vincere won paying $10 (beating our POOMA) and Test Fire followed up at $4.50. We continue to make money from following the runners in those SSY races. In other races, Walk Up Start improved its own weight to win its Maiden by about 7L in a field that wasn't devoid of talent so it will be worth following and Admiral's Lady stepped up in grade to win again. Mares that get into form can keep it going for quite a while so I'll continue to follow that one. Didn't see much else to follow apart from those.
POOMAs: Laughing Point started good odds at $7+ and ran well for 2nd paying a healthy $2.90 for the place. POOMAs are in a bit of a rut with only one winner from the last 10 selections.
There are no POOMA selections today
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Pakenham 7-1
Today: Three meetings today and nothing to get too excited about. Pakenham 5-11 Loch Shiel carries the SSY form after finishing 4th to Suspects last time out. She's had 23 days off, steps from 1400 to 1750 and is a 6YO mare that's only had 8 starts so you'd think that things are stacked against her. I won't be having a go today and suggest you keep the zip on the wallet firmly closed today also. I'll be driving back to Melbourne from Canberra later on and boppin' along to the sounds of The Rolling Stones, creators of the greatest rock 'n' roll song by a rock 'n' roll band - Jumpin' Jack Flash. For clarity, the greatest song by a rock 'n' roll band is Stairway To Heaven. The Rolling Stones win another of my categories - greatest intro to a rock 'n' roll song - with Gimmee Shelter. What a cracker it is.
Yesterday: The Stavka formline continues to provide the goods with quinellas in races 5 (from the two nominated horses) and 7 (from 4 horses) paying $37 and $23. Bis Vincere won paying $10 (beating our POOMA) and Test Fire followed up at $4.50. We continue to make money from following the runners in those SSY races. In other races, Walk Up Start improved its own weight to win its Maiden by about 7L in a field that wasn't devoid of talent so it will be worth following and Admiral's Lady stepped up in grade to win again. Mares that get into form can keep it going for quite a while so I'll continue to follow that one. Didn't see much else to follow apart from those.
POOMAs: Laughing Point started good odds at $7+ and ran well for 2nd paying a healthy $2.90 for the place. POOMAs are in a bit of a rut with only one winner from the last 10 selections.
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