Eagle Farm 3-2 Sea Zulu
Flemingon 5-11 Caprizzi Strip
Flemington 7-3 Our Smoking Joe
Flemington 8-8 Bel Danoro
Stawell 1-8 Fountain Of Joy
Stawell 3-5 Glass Park Lady
Stawell 5-3 Allenby's Mate
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Belmont 2-3, 8-5
Cheltenham 1-3
Eagle Farm 4-1
Flemington 1-6, 2-4, 3-7
Gold Coast 6-1
Randwick 8-4, 9-10
Stawell 1-8, 2-9, 5-3, 8-1, 9-2
Today: I have commented before that the Townsville trained Sea Zulu is up to city company and I get the chance to put my money where my mouth is today in Eagle Farm race 3, an R0, Apprentices' race. I'll be having a real crack at him in this. Sea Zulu's stablemate, Make Music, goes around in race 5 and if he can get a decent run from his gate will be a fair chance of bringing up a double for their trainer. 4-1 How Brave also looks the goods up there, though he'll be short odds. I really like the chances of Cheltenham 4-4 Time Matters from the Richard Jolly stable today. He won decisively first up in Class 3 company carrying 58kg and this R2 race doesn't look much harder. The drop in weight and step up in trip will help. 1-3 William Of Oz looks like a good chance in the opener there, as well, if he can handle the wet conditions. A few tips at Stawell today. 1-8 Fountain Of Joy has cost punters dearly but looks the one in this. Quinella should go with 7-Explobo. 2-9 Our General Dream will probably start short and even though it looks like it has the form to win I'll be careful, as he's by General Nediym and I want to see them handle the wet before backing them. 3-5 Glass Park Lady ran a very good race last time and looks like a real chance in what is a weak race. 5-3 Allenby's Mate will be a bit of value because Questjeune is in the race but he has good enough form to beat that one home. 8-1 Mad Mo is by End Sweep so you'd think he'd handle the wet but his only run in it produced his worst run. He's trained at the track and maybe that will help. 9-2 Great Steps will be value because 3-Free The Robber will start favourite. They look the quinella to me. At the Gold Coast I like 6-1 Appear to bring up a winning hat trick for top trainer Alan Bailey. We'll either have a really good day or get our arses kicked badly today.
The Flemington meeting is made much harder with the heavy conditions though there are horses like Our Smoking Joe who will be advantaged. The rail is in the true position and barrier positions will make little difference except maybe in the straight races where being drawn in the inside half might be the go - or the outside! It's always a bit of a lottery down the straight. Position in running is going to be less important than being able to handle the conditions. Last week I managed to get all 8 winners in my top 3 selections. I can't see that happening today! Watch out for the Ellerton trained runners, as they all seem to be in the right form and placed well enough to be chances all day. Reviewing the entire meeting:
Race 1: Like last week we have a difficult assignment in this race where the formlines come from all over the place. I'm prepared to leave out all those runners today by sires that are not noted wet track producers so Danever and Dewabbit are crossed off the list of possibilities in this one. Matt Ellerton has a terrific record in this race and his two runners, Okay Oky and Sunburnt Land, look to have chances. Macau Causeway has excellent wet track credentials and good form. Indelible has chalked up a couple of nice wins and sneaks into this race particularly well at the weights. Others that must have a chance are Furio, Magic Of Music, Tipungwuti and Majestical. A tough race. Selections: 16-Indelible, 6-Macau Causeway, 14-Sunburnt Land
Race 2: Another hard race in spite of the small field. The top four have been running around in the top races and the bottom four are trying their luck in better grade. Flame Of Sydney was pretty good 3 weeks ago behind La Vie Amour and has race fitness on her side. My Only Hope has quite a bit of upside, I reckon, and I wouldn't be surprised to see her run a race at e/w odds. Jumlah is obviously classy and Cinque has also won in Listed company. Of the others, River Fairy was lucky to win at Werribee last time but the horse that ran 2nd has run well since and Omarie rounded them up late when winning her Maiden last time after blowing the start. Selections: 3-Flame Of Sydney, 1-Jumlah, 4-My Only Hope
Race 3: I tipped Tommifrancs last time and he ran a really good race behind Growl. This is a slightly easier race, he handles the wet very well and the wide, open spaces of Flemington will be in his favour. Field Hunter is always competitive and is also very good in the wet. Hachiman led all of the way and won nicely last time on the heavy at Sandown last time in an easier race but looks to have some scope and must be a chance here on the limit weight. I expect Tawqeet to run well and give place chances to Cefalu and Roubechon. Selections: 7-Tommifrancs, 5-Field Hunter, 16-Hachiman
Race 4: I potted Maybe Better last time and he was beaten as an odds on favourite. I'm potting him again today even though this is an easier race. Because of the conditions I'm going to go for Victory Sweep, as his last four runs in the wet at 2000m have yeilded 3 wins and a narrow 2nd. He's won here and sneaks in with just 52kg. Looks terrific e/w value to me, as does High Ransom, another who gets in well in the conditions. Umbula may well be first up after a short spell and I'm sure that Mick Price will have him ready for a big first up run. Lion's Gate is a Danehill with no wet track form so he's not a contender for me today. Going for value in this one. Selections: 7-Victory Sweep, 8-High Ransom, 2-Umbula
Race 5: The trick with this race is the complete lack of pace in the race. Caprizzi Strip looks to get an easy lead, is very effective at the track and trip and has a terrific wet track record. Vienetta is a pretty good NZ mare that ran a really good race last time behind Storm Alert and gets into this race particularly well with the weight and inside draw. I can see her parking behind Caprizzi Strip and being a really good quinella chance. The Canberran, Belmonte, is a very good horse, can race handy and has a real chance here. Polar Bear didn't have much luck last time and looks pretty well in and it wouldn't surprise to see Bird Dancer run a race. Selections: 11-Caprizzi Strip, 15-Vienetta, 6-Belmonte
Race 6: The Danehill Stakes sees only one of his progeny in the race - Churchill Downs - however I'll go against him due to the wet track. I commented on the run of Green Birdie last time behind Haradasun and Sharkbite, as his sectionals were really good. He drew 14 of 14 that day, sat deep and back and zipped home well. Sharkbite also ran terrific sections that day and these two look to have the race between them for mine. Wordsmith will get a good run and Corton Charlemagne has great form behind her. Selections: 2-Green Birdie, 9-Sharkbite, 13-Corton Charlemagne
Race 7: The Craiglee Stakes looks like an Our Smoking Joe benefit now that the track is heavy. He was one of the notable performers I made reference to in my sectionals analysis a few weeks back and he'll start somewhere around $2.20. Casual Pass will roll forward and be right on the pace today, and will be hard to run down. His last start behind El Segundo was very good. Demerger always runs a race when fresh and is an excellent wet tracker. Pompeii Ruler got under everyone's guard last time but I want to see him perform in the conditions. Roman Arch and Sphenophyta are effective in the wet. Zipping has caught the eye at his two starts back but the wet track might not suit, as he's by Danehill. Selections: 3-Our Smoking Joe, 5-Casual Pass, 11-Demerger
Race 8: This race looks like a Bel Danoro benefit so the running double might not pay much. He's one of the few Danehills that can handle really wet conditions and I have no hesitation going wiht him today. Anna's Choice is pretty well placed in this race. He hasn't raced in the really heavy conditions before but the Redoute's Choice breed tend to handle it OK. Classiconi has had 6 first up runs for 3 wins and 3 placings, has a good record at the track and trip, and is very good in the wet. He'll be double figure odds and is a good place chance today. Dr Nipandtuck has a good record, as has Change Of Class. Selections: 8-Bel Danoro, 16-Anna's Choice, 5-Classiconi
Race 9: This is the hardest race on the card. I've ended up going with the mares that have good form in the stronger races. It was hard to miss Sorenstam's run last time behind the heavily backed Storm Alert. Drawing 16 of 16 at the Caulfield 1200m generally kills any hope a horse has and he backers would have torn up their tickets when she was dead last on the corner. However, she steamed home for 2nd in a terrific performance. She's 3/6 at the track including a win over the 1400m here, goes very well 2nd up and is 3/5 on slow/heavy tracks. She's been backed early from $12 into $9 and might start shorter than that. Doubting has had 12 starts of which her last 11 have been in black type company. She has a win over Serenade Rose here (when that horse was in terrific form and an odds on favourite) and handles the wet. Maxerelle has drawn a tad wide but that shouldn't matter today. She's always thereabouts in these races, has had 10 starts here for 2 wins and 5 placings and handles the wet. Australia's most over rated mare, Rewaaya, will start around $3 and it will be interesting to see what manner of trouble she manages to find for herself today. You'd think that from the 2 gate she'd be able to position close enough and get a run through but she hasn't won for nearly a year so I'll go against her. Marju Snip is a really good mare from Adelaide, Professional Lady has good Perth form and Walk Alone comes from Sydney with a run of wins next to her name. Others with chances are Dyna Myta and Speedy Rossa. As I said, a tough race to finish off the quaddie. Selections: 8-Sorenstam, 1-Doubting, 13-Maxerelle
Yesterday: I thought that Captain Wheland did a really good job to win at Cairns. He can win in town over the short course.POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.
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