Ararat 2-13 Obeys
Moonee Valley 2-3 Here De Angels
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Ararat 6-2, 7-2, 9-1, 10-8
Kalgoorlie 7-2
Kembla Grange 2-11
Moonee Valley 5-5, 9-9
Morphettville 2-1, 5-2, 5-7, 5-10
Rosehill 3-3, 6-5
Today: A couple of POOMA selections today with both looking to be pretty short in the market. One is at MV and commented on below. The other is at Ararat in race 2. 13-Obeys comes from the Peter Moody camp and looks very well suited in this race with the step up in trip today. She was pushed along early to get a position, fell back a bit mid-race and finished off nicely for 2nd behind Ivandrago who swept home from the tail and stole a march on her while she was looking to get clear. Ararat is generally a pretty good place to have a bet, as it's a very even, fair track where every horse gets its chance. It would surprise me a little if the non-POOMA selections at Ararat didn't return a profit. They don't quite qualify as POOMAs but should go OK. Kembla Grange 2-11 from the Gai Waterhouse yard should go pretty close in this. The horse started $2.10 favourite in a Class 1 last time and ran a close 2nd. The drop to Maiden grade should see her get home. We have the pleasure of the last three races at the Western Australian mining town of Kalgoorlie today. 7-2 Jungle Toy comes from the super system that's currently 11/17 at 63% profit. The horse has only won once in 15 goes, has drawn wide and has an apprentice that's never ridden him before at a distance he's never tried. I'd want to be getting around $5 on him.
Analysing the Moonee Valley meeting:
Race 1: This is a tricky little race to open proceedings. Pace looks like coming from Escadaire and Deferment. Ulfah is down in grade, Abdicate has good form but is yet to win, Flash Coupe goes OK, Mi Casa Su Casa overcame difficulties to win his Maiden last time, Ankh Morpork won his Maiden and then got a bit lost in Sydney, Ela Ye Mou and Sayprayerforme have been thereabouts, and Esparanza has drawn the inside and might lob a place at odds. I'll go for Ankh Morpork on top, as his poor runs have been on wet ground. Selections: 7-Ankh Morpork, 2-Ulfah, 6-Mi Casa Su Casa
Race 2: This favourite, Here De Angels, has looked terrific in winning his only two starts and he looks the goods again in this. He's a POOMA selection today. Far Horizons from the in form Matthew Ellerton camp goes well and Muzdaher ran well first up. That's probably your race. Selections: 3-Here De Angels, 4-Far Horizons, 1-Muzdaher
Race 3: The speed looks to come from Bennett's Green and Wildwood Road, though Japanese trainer Mori's horses tend to be mad leaders so Fusaichi Ole might go quick, as well. Surprise Impact looks likely to get the right run behind them and I expect he'll finish over the top of the leaders who could hold onto the placings. Selections: 5-Surprise Impact, 3-Bennett's Green, 10-Wildwood Road
Race 4: This is also a tricky race. Estelle Collection has looked good so far but I wouldn't be taking odds on about her. She'll settle close to the lead, I expect, along with Follow The Till and Industrious. Flame Of Sydney ran on well in the race behind Permaiscuous that a few of these come out of and wasn't beaten far so the step up in trip will help and Fun In Flight ran a similar race. I'll probably stay out of this race. Selections: 7-Estelle Collection, 5-Flame Of Sydney, 1-Follow The Till
Race 5: For a 7 horse race this is not easy. Apache Cat and Red Dazzler are probably going to run one-two at a moderate tempo and in the small field the others will be close enough to have their chance. Testafiable sat outside Minson in the Memsie last time and died on his run to finish near the rear. I don't think they'll want him to race so forward today. Fields Of Omagh settled near the rear in that race and made steady ground and Lad Of The Manor settled midfield and only plugged up the straight. Apache Cat sat three deep all the way and boxed on well for third, which is why he's favourite. Red Dazzler has had a month off and is always competitive. The same goes for Spinney while Spielmeister looks outclassed. I can see a heap of pressure coming into this race at the 600m mark as those sitting midfield and rearward try to get into the finish by making long runs so I think it'll be a fitness battle to the line, which leaves me with Apache Cat on top, as he's had a couple of runs from a spell. Selections: 3-Apache Cat, 2-Lad Of The Manor, 6-Spinney
Race 6: Gawd. What's this? Near enough to a field job to open the quaddie. The form comes from all over the place. At least the pace is easy to pick - Hunter Hermitage. If the track was rain affected then he'd be a big chance but given he's 1/24 on good ground he'll probably lead them up and drop off at around the 300-400m mark. I'm going to go with the topweight, Count Ricardo, to improve on his first up run at Flemington. He travelled well in the run after being slightly slowly away and spent the entire length of the long Flemington straight looking for a run before his jockey, Michael Guthrie, gave up and sat up on the horse 50m out. He looked to have a lot to offer and I reckon he'll be terrific each way odds here. His previous 9 runs had been in Group and Listed company, which includes winning the G2 Sandown Cup, so he has a touch of class about him. Lancettier had his first run for the Hayes stable since coming from Hong Kong and landed the prize in Adelaide at a handy 33/1. That Hong Kong form tends to translate well these days and if David Hayes thinks he's up to Melbourne grade then it's probably worth following his lead, especially as this is not a strong race. Gallant Guru is first up for the Freedman stable and I expect a good run from him. Flying Langfuhr has won his last couple narrowly and must be considered and Merlot Now is no slouch either, not to mention Penetentiary, who has raced consistently in NZ Group 1 company and Black Panther who had his first start from NZ for Lee Freedman last time and ran a good race behind Chiak. Selections: 1-Count Ricardo, 3-Black Panther, 4-Lancettier
Race 7: The Manikato is now a Group 1 race but there aren't many true Group 1 performers in it. I think that Dance Hero, who was probably the best 2YO we've seen in Australia for 20 years, is the only G1 winner. All Bar One has drawn wide and his jockey has no option but to press the turbo button at the start and power him to the front. He has explosive early pace and could probably land 2L in front, as I don't think any of the other speed merchants - Dance Hero, California Dane, Magnus or Magically - will want to take him on. California Dane is the track record holder here and has the blinkers back on today. He'll probably be able to get the run behind All Bar One. Race favourite, Miss Andretti, will get the chance to slot in one out and two or three back from her wide gate due to the early speed and she'll be in the right place at the right time when the pressure really ratchets up a notch in the last 400m. Sassbee will poke along in the back half doing bugger all and if Steve Arnold can get him into the firing line coming down the side then we might see a repeat of their last meeting when Miss Andretti just nutted Sassbee on the line. Shadoways is a really good horse and will come charging home but I think this is too much of a step up to put him in the selections. California Dane was unimpressive first up and I'm prepared to leave him out, as well, until I see him produce something. Selections: 12-Miss Andretti, 5-Sassbee, 3-All Bar One
Race 8: Just what we need in the quaddie. A mares' race with form that comes from all over the shop. I've always liked the Western Australian, Belle Bizarre, and thought she was up to winning in Melbourne so I'm going to take her to win at her debut in the east. She's good and tough and will get the right run from her good draw. Brockman's Lass hasn't drawn ideally but she'll go back anyway in a race where the pace will be set by Pinezero and Soleil at probably only a moderate tempo. Noel Callow will need to bring her into the race early to ensure she has a chance. He's in good form, though, and I'm sure he'll be fully aware of what he needs to do. Purde got back and ran on strongly last time. I commented that she could win again if her owners didn't rise her too much in class. This is a fair step up but she might be able to lob a place again. I want to see Perfect Promise perform this preparation before getting on her, even though she's very well in under the WFA conditions and there are a heap of other chances, as well, depending on how the race is run. Can't tip 'em all. Selections: 2-Belle Bizarre, 13-Brockman's Lass, 14-Purde
Race 9: And another field job to close out the quaddie. There doesn't seem to be any natural leaders, which would make me think that the race will be run at a fairly dawdling tempo unless some trainer wants to change tactics and go hard early. For that reason I want to be with the horses that will settle in the first half dozen, which Swish Trish from the Freedman camp will be able to do. Flying Object from Adelaide has drawn nicely and will sit 4th or 5th, and Bodacious Harmony has trialled well and will also be up there. The topweight is no slouch, Waitui Angel is always thereabouts, Miss Kooch is on the up and Paris Return has USA form so who knows what it will do? Selections: 4-Swish Trish, 9-Flying Object, 11-Bodacious Harmony
Yesterday: The first at Sale didn't turn out like I expected at all. My pick, General Ledger, started at $30, had a good run but battled to the line to finish unplaced. The next race was the first at Wagga, which saw the Matthew Dale trained first starter we spotted, Offer It Up, get well backed and win narrowly (though it never looked likely to lose in the last 200m - it just wouldn't go straight) at a handy $5. Silky Gold then went down in the last hop in race 2 at Sale. She hung in all the way up the straight and cost herself the race. Conjoin won the last at Sale although $2.50 was well under the required odds and up at Townsville the one that had been picked by one of my 50%+ strike rate systems, Impunity, managed to overcome all of the negatives I noted and win by a wart paying $5. All in all a good day, which would have been better if I could have found the first leg of the $50K quaddie at Wagga, as I had the other three legs.
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.
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