POOMA RESULTS

I have posted selections publicly since 13/11/04. The point of posting them is to drive improvement in my own selection processes. On the whole, the selections come from mechanical methods and the goal was to try and create profitable systems that required no judgement by me. Note that all results use NSW dividends.

Overall, the results are:

Selections: 1753
Wins: 478
Strike Rate: 27.3%
POT%: -2.4%

If you backed the selections with best odds bookies then you’d be running at a profit of about 5%. That’s actually not bad given the preponderance of poor systems and the debacle in NSW and SA. The joint results for those two states are:

Selections: 596
Wins: 141
Strike Rate: 23.7%
POT%: -23.5%

South Australian racing has always been somewhat problematic for me so I rarely bet there these days unless I see one that looks the goods, though that’s done via traditional form analysis rather than mechanical methods. Sydney racing is simply too unreliable, especially over the last 12 months, due to the impact of what appears to be quite obvious team riding. Both states are dominated by a small number of trainers whose horses are over bet, which kills the value. This is unlike Victoria where there’s much more racing and competition for prizemoney.

On 4/8/06 I changed to focusing only on Victorian races, which includes watching video replays and doing more empirical analysis. The results are:

Selections: 44
Wins: 23
Strike Rate: 52.3%
POT%: +51.1%

Now, we all know that a 50% strike rate is pretty much unsustainable, which means that there’s going to be a poor run at some point. However, these results are better than any results ever for Victoria, which would seem to indicate that the changes I’ve made are working.

Thanks for everyone’s feedback and suggestions.