SELECTIONS - 23 September 2006

POOMA selections:

Caulfield 1-1 Kaphero
Caulfield 3-11 Tesbury Jack
Caulfield 5-1 Miss Finland
Caulfield 9-1 Zipping

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Belmont 3-1, 4-6, 6-4
Caulfield 1-8, 2-15, 3-1, 4-6, 5-3, 5-4, 6-2, 6-7, 6-14, 7-5, 7-6, 7-12, 8-4, 9-10, 9-15
Eagle Farm 1-1, 6-7
Kembla 5-4
Rosehill 1-1, 2-2, 4-2, 5-8, 6-6, 6-8, 8-6
Toowoomba 2-2

Today: Looks like a terrific day to have a go, as long as you pick the right races. I'm pretty keen on a few from around the country today starting at Rosehill with 4-2 Kelly from the Gerald Ryan yard. He won both his starts as a 2YO before going a tad wrong and missing the good races in the Autumn. He showed he was back in fine fettle with an eye-catching trial win. 6-8 Cheeky Choice won well first up and has everything made to order for a repeat performance in her race. The two selections at Eagle Farm come from well-performing systems so I expect them to go close. The same goes for the selections over in Perth and the one at Toowoomba. I'll be backing them all and expect to show a profit. Good luck with your selections (as long as they're not against mine!).

Full Caulfield analysis as follows:

Race 1: Kaphero is back in grade on his last two runs the latest of which was 2 weeks ago on a slow track that was won by The One at any old price. The form out of that meeting will be a bit how's your father, I reckon, so I'm prepared to overlook the fact that he led and ran 7th and suggest that he'll just lead and win. The Hayes stable has three in and they could all run well, as could River Fairy. Selections: 1-Kaphero, 6-Enemy Of Average, 8-River Fairy

Race 2: There's no natural speed in this race, which leads me to think that there'll only be a moderate tempo that will make it hard for horses coming from the back of the field. Race favourite, Eskaw, has drawn well and Greg Childs should have her in the right position just behind the leaders. Getting a run through at the top of the straight might be his only problem, as there'll be quite a few making runs out wide. Assertive Guest has drawn gate 12, which continues her recent run of bad luck in four runs this preparation in which she's drawn 12, 10, 11 & 12. She comes back from 1700m to 1400m off a 21 day break, which is more suitable, as she's got a good record of 3/4 at the trip. Rulan Ruby is back in trip also and is coming out of the Moonee Valley meeting last Saturday. I'll be interested to see how she goes, as a number of records fell that day, indicating a hard track, and horses tend to take a few weeks to get over running in those conditions, as they tend to jar up a bit. Her form is good for this race. Speedy Rossa has drawn out a bit and I reckon that apprentice jockey, Andrew Mallyon, will press forward and take advantage of her light weight. Pin Up is in the race very well, also. A very tough race. Selections: 15-Eskaw, 3-Assertive Guest, 7-Pin Up

Race 3: You'd think that Live In Vain would go to the front from his gate 11, as he's a mad leader. This is the easiest race he's been in for over a year and that's reflected in his 59.5kg impost. Squillani always goes well first up though he's weighted up to his best, also. Tesbury Jack was very good last time behind Shadoways and he looks to have a top chance. Dr Nipandtuck ran well enough on that tricky day at Flemington two weeks ago and he'll get the perfect run from his good draw. Selections: 11-Tesbury Jack, 8-Dr Nipandtuck, 1-Live In Vain

Race 4: Well, with even luck, Sharkbite should be winning this race. He was off the bit at the 400m mark last time and finished well to get 3rd in the race won by The One. The step up to 1400m looks ideal and I think he'll start around $2.40-$2.60. The win by The One at big odds was no fluke last time. His first up run included some good sectional times and he'll have a perfect run in the race. Blue Lago hasn't had much luck at his last two runs and has finished close enough to be a chance here. Mr Scribble led them up last time and was run down by Danever and they must be in with a place chance, as does Snort. Selections: 7-Sharkbite, 1-The One, 6-Blue Lago

Race 5: Miss Finland wins. It's that simple. Estelle Collection won well last time and will race handy so should be able to fill a place. Juste Moment didn't have much luck last time but finished well and the step up in trip will suit though she hasn't drawn well. My Only Hope will get the right run and has good enough form to be a place chance, also. Selections: 1-Miss Finland, 4-Estelle Collection, 5-Juste Moment

Race 6: I'm not too sure that the obvious is obvious here. El Segundo has had a setback, has had 3 weeks off and steps up 400m to 1800m so you'd have to think that the morning line price of $2.30 looks particularly light. Pompeii Ruler just keeps winning but he's never actually run a decent time so I wonder if he's one of those horses that has that indomitable will to win regardless of the race circumstances or whether he's just been lucky. He's drawn perfectly and will have to have a great chance in spite of my suspicions. Sphenophyta ran a terrific race first up and will get the chance to stamp his Caulfield Cup credentials here with a good run. Casual Pass might get a soft lead and he goes very well at this track. Our Smoking Joe is known as a wet tracker but also performs very well on top of the ground. The situation around his last run has been widely publicised and I expect he'll run a good race today. Aqua Damore is a good mare who will no doubt entertain us with her antics at the barrier, a trait she's had all of her career that shouldn't put you off ever backing her. I'm going to go against the favourite here. Selections: 7-Sphenophyta, 11-Pompeii Ruler, 2-Our Smoking Joe

Race 7: Miss Andretti is coming off winning well last week and steps up in trip here. She's in such terrific form that it would be a risk to leave her out of calculations today. I do have a little query of her at 7 furlongs so I won't be taking her one out in multiples and the fact that the handicapper has been so lenient with her at the weights might confirm that view. I've spent a year potting Rewaaya, with a lot of justification, and even though she's drawn the inside gate and will only have to go around the race leader, Minson, I'm going to back against her again. Storm Alert is pretty well placed in this race and should be a chance and Niconero ran very well first up. Thin And Crispy will appreciate the handicap conditions of this race and Cargo Cult is in OK form. The topweight, Super Kid, ran 2nd in this race last year when first up so you couldn't write him off and Minson's stablemate, Volitant, will also race handy from his wide gate and might surprise. Perfectly Ready ran well first up and Caprizzi Strip is a mad leader, also, and was never going to lose last time. I wonder whether Minson's connections might not try a change of tactics and let that horse lead with Volitant putting the pressure on, which will give Minson the nice run behind the speed? Hmmmm...luck in running will play a big part so this is an open race. Selections: 5-Miss Andretti, 15-Thin And Crispy, 9-Caprizzi Strip

Race 8: Megadeal won well first up and certainly gets ticks in all of the boxes today. It's hard to see her not figuring in the finish. The Kiwi mare, Crepe De Chine, is, apparently, a natural leader that tends to roll away from the fence when straightening. If that's the case then Megadeal will get a saloon passage through and it'll be up to the rest of the field to run her down. La Montagna is a terrific mare that will have to come from the back of the field but she's all class, as demonstrated by the fact that she has a Stradbroke Handicap trophy in the cabinet back home. I expect a good run from Lyrical Bid. She hasn't had much luck at her last two first up runs and if she can get a good position early then will be a chance. I want to see Queen Of The Hill return to form before considering her, which goes for a few of them in this race. Truly Wicked was a weight/class special last time and duly got the prize. She's nowhere as well in this time but is always a chance in these types of races. Selections: 11-Megadeal, 1-La Montagna, 8-Lyrical Bid

Race 9: The topweight, Zipping, should win here. He's at the top of the Caulfield Cup market, has been in good form and has won with more weight previously. He's had 6 runs at 1800m+ for 6 wins and I'll be taking him pretty much one out in the quaddie. Growl is certainly an up and comer who's lightly raced and just keeps improving. He should get a good run in the race from the inside draw. The speed in the race is not completely obvious though I expect Vengo will have to press forward from his draw out in the car park and probably lead. This is a race where horses that have any pretentions to Spring Carnival glory need to show their stuff so I expect to see good runs from On A Jeune and Tawqeet, as well as Marju Snip who's a pretty good Adelaide mare with a sharp sprint. Selections: 1-Zipping, 9-Growl, 11-Marju Snip

Yesterday: At the Canberra meeting Nick Olive proved again what a good trainer he is when his good horse, Neat Work, overcame a 60kg impost to win again. Olive is certainly a trainer that can be followed with confidence. Not much to comment on elsewhere except for the win of one of the non-POOMAs at Donald in the last race. Rubyraja had won her only start at Mt Gambier in comfortable fashion and dished out a repeat dose at Donald. She's not a bad horse and might be worth following as she goes through the grades assuming that her trainer doesn't get carried away and go into town too early.

POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.