SELECTIONS - 7 October 2006

POOMA selections:

Flemington 2-7 Sunburnt Land
Flemington 3-7 Enemy Of Average
Flemington 4-6 Sentire
Flemington 6-1 Miss Finland
Flemington 8-7 Sphenophyta
Flemington 10-16 Accardo

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Belmont 2-1, 5-4 ,7-3
Doomben 7-8
Morphettville 1-3
Newcastle 2-4, 7-4
Randwick 1-9, 2-2, 7-2, 8-3, 9-2

Today: Six POOMAs today and in my Flemington analysis I'm assuming that the track will be dry for all intents and purposes and that horses will be able to come from back in the field in spite of the rail being out 9m. Randwick has four Group 1 races on the card but a couple of them have average looking fields starting with the Spring Champion Stakes. The form around All Black Gold hasn't stacked up and the fact that he's 2nd or 3rd favourite speaks to the fact that the field is one of the weakest to go around in this race for quite a while (though the field that Niello beat was shocking). Mearas may have drawn wide but he simply looks too good and should win. The Shorts is always a good race and I expect Bentley Biscuit to overcome his awkward draw to beat Magnus and Fox Lake. Everyone is spruiking Molotov for the Metropolitan on the basis of his last run, which was a good effort but to me it looks like a two horse race between Tawqeet and Magic Instinct who both come out of the race behind Zipping. They're both imported from England and are lightly raced stayers on the up. Magic Instinct has drawn the outside but I don't think that will matter. He'll beat Tawqeet, Molotov and the vastly improved North Of Havana. I'm prepared to discount all of the Newcastle Cup form behind Bikkie Tin Blues and the subsequent race that Exinite won with the possible exception of Activation. If a 10 horse field in the Epsom doesn't send a message to administrators that NSW racing is in trouble then nothing will. Maybe Richard Zaccharia can write about it and the AJC Committee can add it to their list of reasons to ban him from the mounting yard. Racing To Win and Desert War look to have the race to themselves with Malcolm being the other chance. The Flight Stakes' field is also nothing to write home about and had Cheeky Choice drawn better then I'd be keen on her but it looks like a good race to stay out of and I think that Napa Sky is a really good chance in the last race, the Angst Stakes, after her last start run behind Coolroom Candidate. Over in Adelaide I'll be keen to back Toast To Lenny to beat Truly A King, especially if $3+ is available. If you pick your races carefully then there's some good value today and you should be able to finish comfortably in front.

Full Flemington analysis as follows:

Race 1: Who the heck knows? When in doubt in an early season 2YO take the Hayes' runner with the stable jockey on board so that's Zizou. For the record...Selections: 7-Zizou, 4-Ease, 3-Determine

Race 2: I reckon that Sunburnt Land is a really good horse in the making. He was a POOMA selection at his last start defeat when he should have won comfortably after a shocking ride from Brent Stanley so I'll back up on him again here with a different jockey on board. Craig Williams takes the ride on Ulfah when he could have chosen Gorky Park, which makes me think that the filly has shown something to give him confidence so I'll include her, as she has a touch of class. Showify has improved at each run this spell and I expect him to run well also. It's a very even race so there'll be value in whatever you select. Selections: 7-Sunburnt Land, 6-Ulfah, 5-Showify

Race 3: I'll be pretty happy to back Enemy Of Average at around $3.50 in this. His sectionals first up showed that he has come back a much improved horse and the step up to 1400m will be right up his alley. Excites looks in the race if he doesn't make a beeline for the V-Line on the corner and end up on the train tracks. I want to see the Sydney form stack up in Melbourne so I'd need $6+ to back this guy. He has transferred from the Guy Walter stable to Paul Perry so maybe he will sort the horse out. Snort has been an erratic customer but is clearly very talented. Greg Childs takes the ride today and he has a knack of getting them to settle nicely for him. Due Sasso comes out of a stronger race behind Wonderful World and previously placed behind Miss Finland so he has to be in contention, as does Muzdaher who was good behind Here De Angels last time. Selections: 7-Enemy Of Average, 2-Due Sasso, 8-Snort

Race 4: The Naturalism Stakes form will stack up here. Sentire didn't have much luck in that race being three deep for the entire trip and he got to the line well. On the other hand, Brindabella had a cosy run back on the fence, got out late and ran home to just beat Sentire to the line. Tommifrancs has disappointed me this time in but really should show something today and Genebel was finding the line well last time behind Snow Flight. Foreign invader, Bay Story, ran 2nd first up in England behind Metropolitan Hcp contender, Magic Instinct, last year and even though he hasn't raced for a year he could run well. It's not unusual to see English horses have that length of time between runs and then be first up at a mile and a half and longer. Aznavour was having his first run off a 46 day let up last time and just ran out of puff late. He'll be better suited at this trip and big track. Selections: 6-Sentire, 14-Aznavour, 9-Genebel

Race 5: Spielmeister looks very well suited but I don't want to be taking less than $3 in this field even though he should get the perfect run in the race and drops back in grade here. You Sexy Boy keeps stepping up with success, Blue Collar Jack is in consistent form, Tick By really didn't have much luck last time and Jukebox Johnny looks to have a chance. I don't much like this race as a betting proposition. Selections: 3-Speilmeister, 16-You Sexy Boy, 13-Blue Collar Jack

Race 6: The fact that Miss Finland has drawn the extreme outside will simply add to her price, which will be all the better for people who back her. She meets the Tranquil Star field better at the weights and she'll have no trouble stepping up to the mile trip. Another in that category is Juste Momente which charged home late to run 4th in that race last time and looks the quinella runner though she's drawn wide again and will need some luck in running. Selections: 1-Miss Finland, 4-Juste Moment

Race 7: Sydneysider, Fast 'N' Famous, has been giving them windburn lately. People always talk about Sydney horses having difficulty with the Flemington straight at their first go but he really does look like a good straight tracker to me. He reminds me of my old bloke, Into The Night, who Darren Beadman nominated as being suited to straight track racing, which the horse proved to be correct. I do have a query about the strength of that form, as if you put Dance Hero, for example, in those races he won and with a similar weight then he'd have a picket fence next to his name as well. I expect Dance Hero to run well along with Undue, Bel Danoro, Live In Vain and Shadoways. If the favourite doesn't win then it's a pretty open field. Selections: 10-Fast 'N' Famous, 1-Dance Hero, 7-Live In Vain

Race 8: I thought that Spinney made the Lad Of The Manor/Apache Cat form look average after his performance at MV the other night when he was beaten on protest. If the form was strong then he really should have thrashed that field. I'm prepared to go against those two horses winning this on that basis even if Lad Of The Manor won in fast time (MV has been on fire lately) - though they could run a place. Stormhill and Apache Cat look like the obvious front runners and I rather suspect that they won't set much of a pace. Sphenophyta is going to get the gun run behind them and I'm really keen on his chance to stamp himself as a spring cups contender with a win here. It's a good field of quality horses so I expect to see Railings, Our Smoking Joe, Headturner, Zipping and even Demerger run well. I can't see them coming from well back to win this. Selections: 7-Sphenophyta, 6-Stormhill, 3-Lad Of The Manor

Race 9: I correctly nominated that Speed Rossa would cross and lead in her last race and cleverly managed to miss all of the multiples, which was unfortunate given that she was 15/1. There's not a whole heap of speed here and I expect she'll lead again from Belle Bizarre with Queen Of The Hill and Hidden Strings close up in running. Astrodame obviously has talent but you don't know if she's going to pack her racing attitude when she goes to the races in the morning and Plans is obviously no slouch. I expect the ones up front to fight out what is a tough race. Selections: 15-Speedy Rossa, 14-Belle Bizarre, 4-Queen Of The Hill

Race 10: Accardo was really terrific last Sunday and even though he's on a quick back up, is up in trip and class he looks the goods here. Volitant looks to be the leader in this along with High Costalana and it's another race where there might not be much early pace so Blake Shinn will need to be awake to that and get his mount into the race early, which he should be able to do from his good draw. The top three in the weights, Royal Ida, Chiak and Threedee are all really good performers and it'd be no surprise to see one of them win this. Outside of Accardo it's a pretty tough race with horses like Orange County and Elbrus looking well in, as well. Selections: 16-Accardo, 10-Orange County, 3-Threedee

Yesterday: A couple of horses to follow from yesterday's meetings starting with Brasco at Port Macquarie in a 1000m Maiden. He took up a forward position from his good draw, got off the fence at the right time and zipped right away to win by a widening 7L. His time was less than a second outside the course record, which is always a good sign, and was neary 0.4s faster than the Class 2 event. At Hamilton, the jumper I highlighted as having a good chance in race 1, Reflective, sat last in the field of 11, was still last at the 600m mark but joined in like an Oakleigh Plater when asked for his effort to win easily. I try to avoid jumpers that get too far back (as I generally do with flat gallopers) but this one really has some scope and is worth following. I was keen to back Fastrack at Wagga but fortunately his price was too short and I didn't play the race, which was handy as he showed absolutely no dash at all in finishing 3rd.

POOMAs: Our POOMA selection at Hamilton yesterday, Fullta, got back and ran home hard to just miss by a short head. Takes POOMAs to 38/76 since I made the change at the start of August.