SELECTIONS - 15 October 2006

POOMA selections:

There are no POOMA selections today

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Cranbourne 5-5

Today: It's unusual for there to be eight meetings on a day and for there to be only one selection from all of my systems. There's definitely nothing to make a POOMA selection though I do think that Kilmore 6-2 Bear's Command will run a good race. A couple that have won for us recently, Bellini Rose and Bon Hoffa are in at Cranbourne. Bellini Rose rounded them up easily last time but this is a much tougher field. She beat the leader-but-non-winner, Allenby's Mate, that day and you wouldn't rate him much chance in this field. Bon Hoffa is obviously on the up but he bumps into a hot field (which these showcase races always are) that includes Stanzout that has been ultra impressive in his hat trick of wins and Star Mystic, which has been running around creditibly in Group races in Sydney. In race 7 there might be a sneaky e/w chance in the form of No More Rules. He is really well in at the weights, goes well fresh and at the track and trip, and will be double figure odds. I'll evaluate value on a race by race basis but don't expect to be having much of a crack at anything today.

Yesterday: Overall results from POOMAs and non-POOMAs were really good yesterday. I stood out Wonderful World in the Caulfield quaddie and, fortunately, Personal Ensign was one of the seven horses I had in the impossible-looking last leg, which returned over $4K for my $84 outlay (3x1x4x7). My analysis was OK with 6 of the 9 winners in my three selections with 3 of them on top - Miss Andretti $1.80, Growl $3.90 and Wonderful World $6.50. Some really good performances that are worth commenting on at Caulfield starting with Ammeryking in race 2. He's now won 6 from 9 and beat a pretty handy field. It's hard to tell how far he can go, and I don't think he's up to Group 1/2 company, but he is a pretty foolproof racehorse. Splashing Out kept her unbeaten record intact with her win in race 3. She also beat a handy field and can keep winning. Miss Andretti won as expected; she really is a top sprinting mare. For anyone who has backed El Segundo in the Cox Plate they must have been reaching for the blood pressure tablets after his sub-par performance behind Casual Pass. I've never rated Darren Gauci as a jockey and he initially seemed to lack urgency at the top of the straight before working out he was in trouble and getting stuck into the horse. He did not show his normal electrifying sprint and his Cox Plate chances have been severely dented, for mine. He has now been replaced at the top of Cox Plate markets by Racing To Win. I don't think that horse can win so there might be a value result this year. Growl put himself right into Caulfield Cup calculations with a dominant win after a terrific ride by Craig Williams. Things panned out beautifully for him after Loanhead went forward early and gave Growl the one-one sit. He has only 49kg (is he eligible for a penalty after the win?), has tactical speed to position in the first half dozen early and can then run a quick last 600m so he'll be a really big chance in that race. Wonderful World is a really good horse and his Caulfield Guineas win was pretty dominant. When I saw him on TVN in the parade ring and moving out onto the track my confidence increased, as he looked absolutely fabulous. He is a terrific looker and ran right up to those looks. Take away his Sydney runs where he couldn't handle the right handed way of going and his form looks really good. Court Command ran pretty well for 3rd and my expectation that the Sydney form wasn't up to the Melbourne form was spot on. The horse ran his best race to date and will be reasonably competitive in the good races. Red Dazzler did the right thing by winning the Toorak Handicap after a run of frustrating placings. Of course, I didn't put Rewaaya in my quaddie so I was cheering for him to catch that mare. They're all a rung below the top horses but are always around the placings. Personal Ensign did a really good job to win the last race, leading nearly all of the way. I put her in my quaddie because the speed map placed her in a really good spot behind the pace. It was really unfortunate that Magic Of Music broke down hopelessly in Cheltenham. I really, really hate seeing horses go wrong. Lombardy did the right thing at the Gold Coast and paid really well at $2+, as he really looked like an odds on chance. I also seem to have spotted a good 'un in nominating Lodge The Deeds at Kembla Grange. He has won his last three in Maiden, Class 2 and now Class 5 company. He might not have beaten much but he was less than a second outside of the track record on a day of average times, won in a canter at the end and I reckon he's up to black type company. Apparently, he's heading to Melbourne for a race over the carnival and I'll be following him for a little while yet. There haven't been many really good Grand Lodges, with Shogun Lodge being his best, but this one is right up there.

POOMAs: El Segundo was very disappointing, I thought, in running 3rd. On the other hand our other POOMA selection, Wonderful World, was really good and the $6.50 dividend was very well received.