SELECTIONS - 14 October 2006

POOMA selections:

Caulfield 5-5 El Segundo
Caulfield 7-4 Wonderful World

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Caulfield 3-2, 3-8, 4-7, 6-7, 7-1
Cheltenham 6-2
Eagle Farm 3-1
Gold Coast 1-5
Kembla Grange 2-4

Today: A couple of POOMAs today, described below. We'll need to tread warily at Caulfield today, as half the card looks pretty open. I like a couple from interstate starting with Cheltenham 6-2 Magic Of Music. He rounded them up nicely last time and a repeat performance looks on the cards here. Gold Coast 1-5 Lombardy has strung a couple together and has a nice weight advantage over Mrs Mango so I expect him to run her down. Kembla Grange 2-4 Lodge The Deeds could be a really, really good horse and certainly the way he flashed home from nowhere last time stamped, I think, the arrival of a bit of a star. He steps quickly up in grade here and the small field might work against him but if he's as good as I think he is then he'll be winning today.

Full Caulfield analysis as follows:

Race 1: Speed (Moderate) - pace looks to come from Far Horizons in this with Cenotaph and Something Anything behind the leader. The three at the top of the weights dominate the market but I was quite unimpressed with that race three weeks ago and reckon they represent poor value. General Albert got home well to beat Twist Contest first up and will be better suited with the step up in trip. Twist Contest didn't exactly frank that form at MV last night. Exaltation has been pretty good on the slow tracks in his three runs and might have the quality to get over the top of them. Shake It Off looks likely to get back, which will make it hard given the tempo I expect. Don't like the race much and I'll go for value with the leader to go wire to wire. Selections: 7-Far Horizons, 5-Exaltation, 2-Harb

Race 2: Speed (Moderate) - from his wide gate and likelihood of a moderate tempo I expect Pinions to jump quickly and either take up the lead or travel outside the leader, which will probably come from King's Champ. It's not obvious who will lead, as Bodacious Harmony flogged along last time in the lead but then weakened and it's probably unlikely they'll do that again. Stickpin is clearly going to have the run of the race behind the speed. I can't see how the ones drawn wide are going to have any choice but to go back and make their runs early. I really hate this race as a betting proposition but for the record...Selections: 9-Pinions, 7-Stickpin, 3-Amerryking

Race 3: Speed (Strong) - I expect Follow The Till to make like an organic slingshot and lead from the outside gate at a strong tempo. Tango Fire has been leading them up and doesn't have a choice but to go forward and press for the lead. Industrious has the early pace to take advantage of her good draw and will sit just behind them with Flame Of Sydney. Corton Charlemagne looks a bit cacked here, as she won't be able to settle close and will have to come from back in the field, which she isn't noted for doing. Satin Robes looks likely to get the perfect run given her style of racing. She's back in trip and grade from her last start assignment behind Miss Finland and I can see her storming over the top of them late. McFly and Splashing Out are obviously in form so they could be in the fray at the end also and Testajoy will lob along out the back and could run into a place. Selections: 5-Satin Robes, 2-Industrious, 11-Testajoy

Race 4: Speed (Strong) - mad leader, Poet's Voice, will take up the running and cart them along at a fair pace, which will help those parked off the speed roll over the top of them. Tesbury Jack and the 3YO filly, Nediym's Glow, look likely to make up the leading trio. Proprietor probably settles 4th and it's anybody's guess about the rest. Miss Andretti could take up 5th outside Proprietor. This looks like a one horse race with Miss Andretti looking to have too much class for them even if she does drop back from 1400m off a three week break. Selections: 7-Miss Andretti, 5-Tesbury Jack, 1-Proprietor

Race 5: Speed (Moderate) - Casual Pass is a clear leader and there's nothing to pressure him so the pace will be average. Grand Zulu and Pompeii Ruler settle a couple of lengths back with the rest sorting themselves out from there. Cox Plate favourite, El Segundo, will lob along in the back few on the fence and the only way he'll be beaten is if Darren Gauci lets Casual Pass get too far in front and takes off too late. Can't really see that being an issue, though, and I reckon we'll get $1.80, which would be good value. It's a pity that Zipping is not guaranteed a start in the Caulfield Cup, as he looked a moral with his weight, and I expect to see a strong run home from him. Pompeii Ruler apparently jarred up last time but I haven't been impressed with his sectionals so far. Super Kid was good first up and looks to have a chance. Fields Of Omagh is set for one race, his swansong, the Cox Plate. Selections: 5-El Segundo, 7-Zipping, 6-Casual Pass

Race 6: Speed (Moderate) - a bit difficult to work the speed out here. Umbula is probably the only horse that can take it up with Growl crossing over from his gate to sit up outside the leader. Savlate looks to get a good run behind the leader along with Gothic Marian and Field Hunter will be one out and two back. Luck is going to play a big part for those that settle off the pace like Siamun and Drac's Back. If Sarrera had have drawn closer then I'd give him a fair chance. Pavlova might push up, as well, from her inside gate. I can see Growl kicking away and being hard to run down. His run behind Zipping was really good last time and that form is stacking up well with Tawqeet's win in the Metropolitan. Selections: 7-Growl, 10-Savlate, 14-Drac's Back

Race 7: Speed (Strong) - Court Command obviously takes up the pace but will get pushed along by Escadaire and Muzdaher. Even though he's looked the goods in Sydney I doubt the strength of the Sydney form and those that ran behind Court Command last time would start 50-1 in this race. Wonderful World was dominant last time and he's a POOMA selection today at good value. Anamato has not drawn well but will probably settle back anyway so the strong pace will help. She nearly knocked off Miss Finland last time and that filly would start favourite in this race even with Court Command in the race. Churchill Downs got the most disgraceful protest decision I've even seen last time but he has class and will have a nice sit from the one gate. I commented last week that Snort had a lot of talent and he duly saluted at good odds. He's a chance today. I'm going for value by going against the favourite. Selections: 4-Wonderful World, 7-Danever, 6-Snort

Race 8: Speed (Slow) - Judusk was the obvious leader in this race but with him out there is no obvious replacement. Maybe Better is probably the leader from Red Dazzler and Rewaaya with Undue somewhere close. Darci Brahma also looks to get a really good run behind the speed. Those that get out the back are going to need to take off early so it could be pretty amusing about the 600m mark. Red Dazzler has the form to win, even though he's been a bit weak lately. Darci Brahma is really well weighted in this and is going to give it a big shake. Selections: 1-Darci Brahma, 4-Red Dazzler, 11-Temple Hills

Race 9: Speed (Moderate) - I cannot work this out. Miss Mooney Mooney has drawn the car park and will probably have to flog along early to lead. Coolroom Candidate has drawn one inside that horse and also races forward so she's probably up there somewhere. Personal Ensign, Bashful and Nuclear Free are drawn to get nice runs. The formlines come from all over the shop so working out this race is just too hard. In fact, I can't remember such a hard race to work out in recent months. For the record I'll go...Selections: 12-Melrose Gardens, 1-Coolroom Candidate, 10-Bashful (can I have 10 more tips?)

Yesterday: Fridays tend to be poor races to find good form from but there were a few to follow, as long as they're placed in the right class. At Wangaratta, Nuclear Roo returned from a spell to win easily under his 58kg given all of his rivals 2kg+ over the 1000m dash. This was only a Class 2 event and he can go on with it in a Class 3 or 4, especially with a good claiming apprentice. At Moonee Valley, Miss Evergreen led from the inside gate, was pressured and broke away to win in a nice effort. I wouldn't normally nominate anything from a Friday Queanbeyan meeting to follow but I know that the stable has a good opinion of Gold Room. He carried his 59kg with ease to thrash them over 1100m in a Class 1. He could easily get away with one of those midweek Class 3 city races.

POOMAs: And, as I pointed out yesterday, timing is everything and that was the case when Lea Lisa snuck home at Rockhampton to win her 4th race from 24 starts, paying $5.10 and ensuring a profit for the day. Top Crown went like a busted boiler at Taree and Twist Contest was a really poor effort after having a nice run behind the speed at Moonee Valley. Stavka proved one thing very clearly. He's a big track horse. He was in trouble 999m out in the 1000m dash given where he settled and what he was going to need to do to win. A profit for the day, which is the aim, so we can't complain too much.