SELECTIONS - 21 October 2006

POOMA selections:

Caulfield 2-4 Enemy Of Average
Caulfield 5-2 Shadoways
Caulfield 8-20 Zipping
Caulfield 9-4 Show Barry

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Ascot 2-12, 8-11
Caulfield 5-2
Newcastle 6-1
Randwick 1-3, 4-7

Today: A few POOMAs today, described below. I'm reasonably confident that the winners at Caulfield will have the form to win. That is, I'm not expecting any great surprises where we look back and say, "Ahhh, yep, it could win." That said, the quaddie legs are tough because there are actually so many horses that can win. Around the rest of the country there are a few horses that I think will go well. Perth racing returns to Ascot today after its winter spell at Belmont and 2-12 Wynyard Hall looks like a horse on the up. He ran sharp time in winning comfortably last time and only needs to have a decent run in the race from his gate to be in the finish. 8-11 Old Sage got home well to win last time and the wide draw is actually no disadvantage from the 1400m start at Ascot. He'll be nice double each way odds and I'll be having a go at that price or better. Newcastle is one of those tracks where form seems to stand up well so 6-1 Note The Champ must be a big chance after his good last start 2nd to Tricory last time. He drops a grade, which is neither here nor there, really, over the 900m scamper but this field is nowhere near as strong as that previous race. The two at Randwick look like fair chances with 1-3 Amory Lane probably being the best given that 4-7 Attend bumps into Reigning To Win. The winners are out there today if you're prepared to be patient and pick out the right races.

I used to prepare my own speed map but now the way I come up with it is to use a commercial product as a starting point and then modify based on my assessment. Is just as accurate and saves me a lot of time. Full Caulfield analysis as follows.

Race 1: Speed (Moderate) - Saywaan and Maha Cha lead this up with Mute and Devil Moon right behind them. In the smallish field the ones out the back won't be that far away so they'll all get their chance. This race features horses back in grade with some reasonably average performers. Fun In Flight has been getting home well in her two runs from a spell. She's pretty well weighted here. Miss Fantabulous drew 18 of 19 last time in the Flight Stakes, sat forward and deep before weakening to finish 16th behind Cheeky Choice though she was only 6.4L away. Maha Chakri is in consistent form in weaker race, Mute seems to be improving and World Joy has some form around handy performers. Selections: 2-Miss Fantabulous, 1-Fun In Flight, 5-World Joy

Race 2: Speed (Moderate) - from their wide gates the only two that race forward in this race, Blue Lago and Changing Eyes, should cross and lead. Prospect sits behind the pace and Enemy Of Average is probably out the back, though not too far away. Like the first race there are some runners that have been performing in good races and some lesser type. Enemy Of Average really looks the goods here after his two runs from a spell and is our first POOMA. He was only 1.2L behind Snort last time when coming from back, as usual, and he'll be cherry ripe for this. Blue Lago will get to the front in the straight at some point, I expect, as Changing Eyes drops away and My Midi has been racing around in Group races for a while and this is easier. Selections: 4-Enemy Of Average, 1-Blue Lago, 2-My Midi
Race 3: Speed (Moderate) - All but one of these runners is stepping up to 2000m for the first time and I can't imagine any trainer would want their horse to lead at a strong clip so unless there's one that simpy refuses to settle then the speed should be moderate, especially as there are very few on-pacers in the race. Brolago looks the obvious pacemaker from Fuji Fantasy and Diatreme, which will have to go forward from out wide. Satnav, Lady Gray, Rendinza and Rena's Lady are positioned just behind the speed and the rest sort themselves out from there. This is a very difficult race and I'm not keen to be backing the race unless there's something I assess as extremely over the odds. For the record...Selections: 4-Sefrah, 7-Diatreme, 3-Rena's Lady

Race 4: Speed (Moderate) - Terenaba led them up to win the Group 1 Spring Champion Stks last time at about 1,000,000-1 and I can't see why connections would change a winning formula in what looks to be another race without a genuine high speed on-pacer. Centura and Galen will get a nice run behind the leader and the normal backmarkers like Ulfah will be in their usual position. I haven't rated the Sydney 3YO form at all this season and I'll go against it again here. Ankh Morpork is the Derby favourite by default, I think, as there doesn't look to be much staying depth this year and steps up to a more suitable trip today. He's only won a Geelong Maiden and even though he's always shown talent I want to see him really crunch a good field before being convinced of his ability. Galen got home well to win a strong event last time and is going to get the gun run so he looks a big chances, as does Tip The Dip, which keep running on strongly for the in form Leon McDonald stable. Perth visitor, Egomaniac, has been winning easily and it's always worth putting in the good WA horses. Selections: 7-Tip The Dip, 3-Galen, 5-Ankh Morpork

Race 5: Speed (Strong) - They don't tend to loaf too much in a Group 2 1100m sprint. Three potential leaders and they'll all be on the pace - Any Suggestion, Magnus and Biscayne Bay. Queen Of The Hill will get a nice suck along behind the speed and Shadoways will be back and one out. This looks like a Shadoways benefit race to me, which is why he's a POOMA selection today. 3/5 at the track, 3/3 at the trip, very well weighted, good jockey and form from strong races behind Miss Andretti and Fast 'N' Famous. That'll do me. Magnus is a really crack sprinter and will run a terrific race again, as he always tends to do, and Queen Of The Hill is really going to have the right run to be a chance here. I can't see the others that'll be out the back outsprinting Shadoways. Selections: 2-Shadoways, 8-Queen Of The Hill, 7-Magnus

Race 6: Speed (Strong) - Lots of pace here and that'll be to the advantage of horses racing midfield and back. Live In Vain, Volitant, Caprizzi Strip and New Edge will take up the first four positions at a fair clip with Bentley Biscuit stalking them on the rails and Shablec and Royal Ida out the back. Bentley Biscuit's first up win was terrific and if his bad feet are OK then I can see him getting to the front 200m out and opening up a winning gap. That said, his 2nd up runs tend to be a tad flat, even in winning, so I'll want a price in this. Royal Ida is a bomb-proof galloper that is always going to give a good sight and I expect improvement from Volitant today. Selections: 3-Bentley Biscuit, 7-Royal Ida, 2-Volitant

Race 7: Speed (Strong) - Dea and Speedy Rossa look like leading at a fair pace, which will give good runs to Belle Bizarre and Beauty Watch, which will have to work forward from out wide. Divine Madonna, Astrodame et al will poke along out the back and look to get into the race on the corner. It's a hard one to start the quaddie. Divine Madonna rushed home like Hurricane Katrina last time in an amazing performance, the like of which we rarely see. If she gets a clear run at them around the smaller Caulfield track then you'd think they can't hold her out. The issue for me is that she does look to be a big track horse. Open Cut should have the absolute gun run and third up from a spell is a chance to turn the tables on the favourite. Bashful should also have a nice run in transit, which will be 100% different to her last run which was basically a track gallop because she never got out. Sorenstam is another that'll be in the right position when the pressure goes on. Belle Bizarre is a terrific mare and a win would surprise me not one iota. Selections: 4-Open Cut, 2-Divine Madonna, 9-Belle Bizarre

Race 8: Speed (Strong) - It's almost impossible to work out a speed map for this race but what is for sure and certain is that it will be strongly run. I think that if a trainer is of a mind to have their horse lead then they'll be able to achieve that by simply having it push forward through the first 400m. Therefore, we might see a surprise leader like Serenade Rose, which has drawn deep. Zipping has been my long range selection for the Caulfield Cup for the last couple of months and now that he's made the field I'm sticking solid even though Glen Boss is going to need everything to go right from the extreme outside draw. This is such a good field with good formlines from everywhere, including overseas. I won't go through the entire field, as that's been done to death on radio, TV and in the press but I'm sure we'll see a worthy winner. Selections: 20-Zipping, 18-Growl, 3-Railings

Race 9: Speed (Very strong) - I can't see how this will be run at anything other than a sprint for nearly the entire journey given that all of the pace is out wide and the number of on-pace runners in the race. Octrivia looks like he has to cross and lead with Maybe Better and Evasion. Show Barry is going to get a terrific cart along right behind the speed and is an extremely tough customer to run down in this sort of company, which is why he's a POOMA at really terrific e/w odds. I reckon he'll give us a great sight for our money. Polar Bear and Tick By will have cosy runs along the rail, and Spinney and King Of Ashford should be one out midfield. A really hard race and we're going for value. Selections: 4-Show Barry, 2-King Of Ashford, 5-Spinney

Race 10: Speed (Moderate) - A bit difficult to work out the pace here. Jumaana and Wildlife Girl look the leaders at a slow bat. The runners to follow will be stalking the pace on the fence and one out and look to be Megadeal, Anais, Chilli Cool and Bella Princess. Anais is on the up and is obviously in this with a chance even though it's a fair jump in grade. Megadeal looks very well placed and will be in the finish. Bella Princess doesn't have much of a winning record but is good fresh and will have that nice run. A hard leg to end the quaddie. Selections: 1-Megadeal, 10-Anais, 14-Bella Princess

Yesterday: Apart from the two POOMAs running 3rd I had a very successful day thanks to getting the $19K Townsville quaddie for a half. In fact, the four horses that I had in the last leg were the only live runners in the quaddie after most people were blown out by a $58 shot that arrived by a wart. Mick Kent pulled off a rare event in Australian racing with Sir Raffles winning a hurdle race at his first ever start by a handy 12L. The horse must have some fair flat ability to win like that so look out for him in those events. Our pick, Waltermitty, ran OK for 3rd at nice e/w odds. Was a pretty average day's racing otherwise so nothing to follow as far as I'm concerned.

POOMAs: More pain yesterday with two 3rds from the two selections. I'd rather than ran 10th and 47th, I hate running placings! The Bhagwan was really pushed along early to hold his spot and had nothing left at the finish. That is not the way to ride that horse if his first start is anything to go by. I think that my assessment of Nuclear Roo's bad legs is correct given how he wobbled around. He has a lot of talent but is always going to be a risk.