SELECTIONS - 28 October 2006

POOMA selections:

Gold Coast 8-6 Time Lion
Kembla Grange 1-3 Zaretti
Kembla Grange 8-11 Sui Generis
Moonee Valley 5-1 Excites
Moonee Valley 6-9 Zipping
Moonee Valley 7-12 Aqua Damore
Moonee Valley 8-13 Safwa
Morphettville 1-2 Guus
Yarra Valley 2-6 Gold Delta
Yarra Valley 3-3 Pure Dancer

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Ascot 2-4
Doomben 2-1, 5-7, 5-8

Today: The POOMAs copped a whupping last Saturday when I failed to assess that backmarkers wouldn't be able to get home even off a strong pace. The track looks to be dead today at Moonee Valley and I think it's likely that backmarkers will need to make their move a long way out in order to have a chance. A heap more POOMAs than normal today and one in Adelaide, which normally I wouldn't do but it comes from such a good system and will be such good value that we have to include it. The reason for so many non-Victorian selections is that the top systems that normally don't have many selections have chosen today to select some runners. It's hard to knock the chances, really, of any of them. I reckon it's a really good day to be having a bet but will be careful in the races at MV to make sure I'm getting the value I need.

Full MV analysis as follows.

Race 1: Speed (Good) - not enough form to work out the speed but given it's a Listed race there shouldn't be any loafing. Tresor and Royal Asscher look like the speed from the raced brigade with Cinq Royal and the unraced Punxsutawney Phil (named in honour of "the world's most famous weather-forecasting groundhog) right behind them. When in doubt, go for the Hayes/Williams runner in the 2YO races. It was good last time and the first starters will have to be good to beat it home. Selections: 8-Cinq Royal, 9-Royal Asscher, 4-Punxsutawney Phil

Race 2: Speed (Moderate) - Can't see anything really leading apart from Anasar, which will not be pressured to put a lot of speed on. Cinque probably sits behind with Sedgewick and Pantenny. Kisumu will have to come from the tail along with Fusaichi Rose, which will be a bit tough. Cinque drops a trillion grades in this but I'm put off by the fact that Fallon is on it and Williams is on Manna Miss, which has lesser form. Pantenny was OK last time and might handle the step up to a mile given the pace won't be that hard but I'm not at all interested in betting in this race. Selections: 5-Pantenny, 2-Fun In Flight, 4-Manna Miss

Race 3: Speed (Strong) - A heap of speed here with Industrious, Far Horizons, Tully Star, Cenotaph and Tullamarine all going forward. Some Think will get a good run back on the rail and horses like Corton Charlemagne will poke along out the back with Shake It Off. A race where luck in running will play a big part but I think that the swoopers will feature here at the end. Selections: 9-Industrious, 10-Corton Charlemagne, 4-Shake It Off

Race 4: Speed (Moderate) - One clear leader here in Poet's Voice and he'll be able to run along with no pressure from California Dane, Honalee and General Baynton with Red Oog and Let Go Thommo. I think that the 1000m is right up the alley of Poet's Voice and he'll be nice odds in this. Honalee is a good horse and can run a drum, and Let Go Thommo is racing well and will finish strongly. I want to see California Dane return to form before backing him, same for General Baynton and Red Oog goes well fresh but the trip might be a tad short. Selections: 6-Poet's Voice, 3-Let's Go Thommo, 2-Honalee

Race 5: Speed (Moderate) - Pace here from Deledio and Fantastic Owners though it wouldn't shock me to see a change of tactics on another runner. They'll all get their chance in this race though the ones out the back like Efficient will not want to wait too long to come into the race. Efficient has looked really good as he has been going through the grades but I really think that Excites is the one here and he's the first POOMA for the day. He comes through the Caulfield Guineas, which has to be stronger form than the rest of the lead up races and has been crying out for a longer trip. Paul Perry has had him for a couple of runs now and he'll be familiar with the horse so he should be spot on. Danever was a tad one paced in the Guineas but I reckon this son of Danehill will relish the 2040m today and be right there at the finish. Keen on the toppie in this. Selections: 1-Excites, 7-Efficient, 3-Danever

Race 6: Speed (Good) - Show Barry and Delvecchio look the obvious front runners and I can see Zipping being ridden forward from his wide gate to take up a position right behind the pace. Testafiable wil get a lovely run, as will Mahtoum. The usual suspects will be out the back including Demerger, Fooram and Art Success. I thought that Zipping's run in the Caulfield Cup was terrific even though he ran 12th and will follow up as a POOMA. He was only beaten a bit over 4L and was badly affected by the fact that horses couldn't make ground in the straight. Testafiable looks the obvious danger after his recent runs and he will love getting out to the trip at which he won the SA Derby last year. Jagger is coming to hand nicely for David Hayes and if he is to be a contender in the Melbourne Cup then he needs to show form here. It looks a reasonably skinny race for mine. Potential placegetters could include Dolphin Jo and Don Raphael but I can't see them winning. Selections: 9-Zipping, 5-Testafiable, 12-Jagger

Race 7: Speed (Strong) - Cox Plates are always run at a good clip and with the pressure coming on a long way out the winner tends to be the best of the bunch. Apache Cat really looks like he has to cross from 12 and lead with Casual Pass on his outside. Pompeii Ruler will also need to press forward from 9 so it's going to be hectic turning out of the straight. Luck is going to play an important role in the chances of the runners drawn wide. Our Smoking Joe and Racing To Win get the run right behind the speed. El Segundo will settle down in around 10th spot. If that horse had have won the other day then he'd be a 5/4 favourite but instead he was left flat footed and left everyone wondering about his chances here. I don't rate Gauci as a jockey, never have, and question his 'big race' capability, which is a big minus for this horse. However, if they really flog along early then he'll be a strong chance. If he can't win then it's my feeling is that this will be an outsider's year similar to when Dane Ripper won. The horses that I don't think are any hope are: Fields Of Omagh, Lad Of The Manor, Our Smoking Joe, Apache Cat, Red Dazzler and Miss Finland. The Cox Plate winner tends to have won or run 2nd at its last start in recent years and even though that's not a guide in what looks an even race it does show that horses need to have run well leading into it. I think that Aqua Damore is going to get an absolutely perfect run though I'm concerned that Gai has put Keiran Fallon on board, as he has little experience at the Valley or in Australia. It might be a race of firsts, as Gai hasn't won a Cox Plate and neither has a visiting jockey so you never know. At $20+ she seems terrific value after her top Caulfield Cup run. Casual Pass is a definite threat and if he can end up behind the lead with cover early given he'll be pressing forward then I suggest he'll run a place. I don't like the chances of Racing To Win at all. He has to have his first run at 2000m in a Cox Plate and he just doesn't seem to me to be a horse that can sustain a 600m sprint given the step up in trip. I don't think he'll run a place, really. Grey Swallow is an interesting runner and he'll poke along from his inside draw. It's hard to line his form up but he certainly has talent. Miss Finland is no hope, surely? She's no Surround, is she? I guess we'll find out but I don't see it myself. Pompeii Ruler has never been one of my horses, as he doesn't run quick times but he does have the ability to be really tough for a long way and that might carry him close today. If one of those that I've potted wins then I'll be out of the quaddie early. Four tips here. Selections: 12-Aqua Damore, 4-El Sequndo, 1-Casual Pass, 3-Grey Swallow

Race 8: Speed (Strong) - Heaps of speed here with Pin Up, Fullaz, Star Mystic, Benko and Pasikatera charging forward and setting a strong clip. Horses out the back are right in this race and they include Celtic Bloom, Honest Politician and Art Success. However, I think there's a special in this in the form of Safwa, which we're following up on again as a POOMA after she ran 4th for us last time after not getting a clear run through them. She'll get a great run in the race and has a good sprint. Reggie is another who'll get a good run and she goes well fresh so she goes into the selections and Celtic Bloom will charge home from the back. Valkyrie Diva hasn't quite measured up to black type races and she'll be too short to back. Selections: 13-Safwa, 7-Reggie, 3-Celtic Bloom

Race 9: Speed (Strong) - Volitant looks the lead here with New Edge, Belle Bizarre and Primus going forward. Flash Trick will get a nice run right behind them along with Undue and Cargo Cult. Cog Hill should also get a nice run in the race along with Black Panther. I reckon this topweight is the go here, as he is a terrific miler and isn't badly weighted here. Cargo Cult is yet to be unplaced at this track and ran well last time in the Toorak Handicap, as did Niconero and Undue. Brockman's Lass has drawn poorly and I think that'll skewer her chances in this. Selections: 1-Cog Hill, 3-Undue, 6-Cargo Cult, 11-Belle Bizarre

Race 10: Speed (Good) - Napa Sky looks the obvious leader here from Marwin Gold and Was That You, which should get a beaut run. Figurini, Paris Zero and Forest Spy all should get good runs, as well. Shadowmaker and Finniss Sea etc will need to come from back in the pack, which might be a bit of an ask in this. Was That You is 2/2 first up, 2/2 at the Valley and 2/4 at the trip. Given the run he'll get he has to go straight on top of the ticket. Paris Zero and Truly Wicked are right in this race and I expect Shadowmaker to improve on his last run in which he was never a chance on the biased track. Selections: 5-Was That You, 8-Paris Zero, 7-Truly Wicked

Yesterday: I didn't see any of the races yesterday though I see that Trick Of Light managed to get home again at Ballarat under the steadier of 59kg. She might be a fair horse, as might Watches who won her Maiden by a big space and in quicker time than the Class 3 race (though the track was going off later in the day).

POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.