Friday, October 13, 2006

SELECTIONS - 13 October 2006

POOMA selections:

Moonee Valley 4-1 Twist Contest
Moonee Valley 6-7 Stavka
Rockhampton 4-5 Lea Lisa
Taree 3-3 Top Crown

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Wangaratta 6-6, 7-2

Today: The track is currently rated dead at MV but given it's about a thousand degrees outside it should be really tops by tonight. My current favourite horse, Stavka, is running at MV tonight and he's a POOMA selection. By coincidence, I'm reading Antony Beavor's terrific book, Stalingrad, at present and can tell you that Stavka is the Soviet General HQ of the Armed Forces. This horse is a really sharp performer and is in a race that only looks to have a few chances. 10-Tea Leoni started 9/10 favourite in the race won by Bon Hoffa from Yappa before running a 7L 12th. I expect her to improve tonight. The other POOMA at MV is 4-1 Twist Contest, which nearly won a stronger race last time and drops back to fillies' grade here. She got home from back in the pack in sharpish time for a Class 1 event and looks the goods. I've been waiting for 3-5 Silver Service to reappear after some really good runs recently, the latest when running a 5.5L 2nd to Suspects. The 3rd horse home in that race, Zuna, has won since and the form behind Zuna's Maiden win is holding up well with recent winners coming from it. I'd be really keen to back Silver Service if he wasn't coming off a 26 day break and stepping up to a mile for the first time. He was entered in the race that was won by Lawson last week but was scratched, presumably because he drew off the track. It is my judgement that he would have won that race by a space, as the formlines around Lawson are not that strong. Rockhampton 4-5 Lea Lisa is a rare non-Victorian POOMA selection. She comes from one of my really good systems and will be fair odds of around $4 in the 7 horse field. She's a 7YO mare that has only won 3 races but, as they say in the classics, timing is everything and I think she'll rack up win number 4 today. Taree 3-3 Top Crown also comes out of a really top system and I've made it a POOMA also even if it is at that particular goat track. If he's around $4 then that'd be great. The selections at Wangaratta look to have e/w chances at best. Pick your races wisely and there's value to be had today.

Yesterday: I commented yesterday that I wasn't keen to back Suspects due to the fact it had failed to settle at its last start and pointed out that talented horses can do that in Maiden and Class 1 company. Suspects exactly proved my point by getting his head up and pulling like a Carlton supporter even for top jockey, Damien Oliver, but he was still too good at the end beating the topweight, which had beaten him home last time. Baron Ruthven was an impressive performance in race 7, coming from last to knock off an OK field in a canter. He's up to much better company. The horses that finished 2nd and 3rd in that race got beaten last time by...Stavka. That really is the strongest of the SSY form.

POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.

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