Caulfield 3-4 Shinko Blue
Caulfield 5-1 Kaphero
Caulfield 7-13 Truly Wicked
Caulfield 8-14 Recline
Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):
Belmont 3-2, 6-12
Caulfield 1-2, 4-5, 4-6, 4-7, 5-1, 6-2, 8-12, 8-14
Doomben 1-5, 2-9, 6-8
Gold Coast 8-3
Kembla 2-1
Kilmore 8-10
Morphettville 4-4, 6-3
Rosehill 2-2, 3-8, 4-10, 4-11, 7-1
Lay of the Day: Doomben 1-2 Craiglea Bob $2.90 hasn't won at the track and hasn't won since June '05 at Barcaldine (!), which followed wins at Longreach (!), Blackall (!) and Tambo (!) so happy to pot him today - [LOTD 11 from 14]
Today: At Rosehill I expect 4-6 Crosswise to improve significantly back onto the dry track. He has a heap of talent and will be about $5. 8-9 Private Dan is very well placed, as well, and goes into the race in good form.
I've done the form for all the races at Caulfield, as follows:
Race 1: 9-Lion's Gate will start favourite, which means you'll need to take shorter odds about a horse that's won 2 races against horses with much better win records. Also, he hasn't won since the Geelong Derby Trial in October '04 so I'm going to pick against him though it wouldn't surprise me if he won. Desert Master is pretty well placed first up and it's only been a couple of months since he competed in the Brisbane Cup so the 2000m will be fine, and Sarjun was a bit unlucky last time. In an even race, I'll go 11-Sarjun; 4-Desert Master; 9-Lion's Gate
Race 2: Hunter Hermitage will put the speed in this race, of course, which will set it up for the run on types. 1-Tawqeet has 59.5kg after the claim and that seems too close to the rest of them, for mine. He should power home late to win. Haddle McDaddle will get a good run and go close and Pie Oh My and Roadhog look the only other chances. I think that Caprizzi Strip won't get its own way in front like it did last time, which will cruell its chances. I'll go 1-Tawqeet, 7-Haddle McDaddle; 6-Roadhog
Race 3: I really like 4-Shinko Blu in this race. Off a hot pace, she didn't quite finish off the mile trip last time under 58kg at Werribee, tiring late. She's much better suited back to seven furlongs and with the claim gets in with just 53kg. She'll position handy and is an outstanding e/w chance. Purde is a good quality mare from the Hayes' camp and this looks a pretty good race to begin her spring campaign. First up last time in Empress Lily ran 3rd in Group 3 Fillies' company behind Apache Cat over 1400m so sneaking in here with just 54.5kg puts her right in the race. Diamond Masque, Soleil and Honest Polly look like setting a reasonable tempo with Shinko Blu stalking them into the straight. 4-Shinko Blu; 3-Purde; 1-Empress Lily
Race 4: The question here is whether La Vie Amour is up to these better fillies given she's got fitness on her side and has been running quick times. Peter Moody seems to think so but I don't. De Lago Mist is an outstanding filly that raced in the best of company last time in. Whether the 1100m is a tad short is the question. Another terrific filly is Nediym's Glow whose only real failure was in the Blue Diamond on a bog track. She's the speed in the race. Ulfah has a terrific turn of foot and has had a history of finding trouble; if everything goes well for her today then she could go close. Satin Robes was close to Nediym's Glow when they met last time in and is going to get the gun run. 2-Nediym's Glow; 7-Satin Robes; 1-De Lago Mist
Race 5: The first leg of the quaddie is pretty tough, as there are so many good horse returning from a spell and with different form lines. Kaphero looks like leading and there doesn't look to be a huge amount of speed apart from him. Sharkbite will sit right behind him from the inside draw and might be able to step up to this better grade. If you missed Haradasun's win at Swan Hill then it's your loss. He's a half brother to Elvstroem being out of Circles Of Gold (I won over $28K when she ran 2nd in the Caulfield Cup to Arctic Scent with Iron Horse 3rd) and looks like adding to the family's silverware. He settled back in about 7th spot over 1300m at Swan Hill, came into the race on the corner, took over about 250m out and put 10L on them being eased down over the concluding stages. Sure, it wasn't much of a race but it was one of those performances that sticks in one's memory (reminds me of the day Show No Emotion had his first start and did a similar thing, pity he was unsound). Back to 1100m might not help his cause but he'll be charging late. Conformator hasn't drawn well but I think he has a sneaky place hope at odds and, of course, Churchill Downs has to be respected. 1-Kaphero; 8-Sharkbite; 14-Haradasun
Race 6: Minson looks to get a soft lead here in a race in which he'll start favourite for the first time in his life. The only real negative is that new jockey, Damien Oliver, has chosen an inopportune time to have a run of outs in the city, not having ridden a winner in 30 rides. Lad Of The Manor has drawn wide (again) in a 1400m Group race at Caulfield. He won this race first up last year on the wet track from barrier 11 and then drew 13 when 2nd first up in the CF Orr in the Autumn. He sat three deep for the entire trip in both of those runs. He'll need to press forward and I expect him to sit outside Minson today. Red Dazzler will position behind those two with Maybe Better. De Beers ran 3rd first up last time in at Randwick behind Flying Pegasus but had a soft run on the fence and never threatened the winner. From the wide gate I can't see him having the dash to win here, as I expect the winner to be in the first four around the corner. 8-Minson; 1-Lad Of The Manor; 14-Serenade Rose
Race 7: I'd be surprised if one of Surprise Impact, Blahnik, Temple Hills, Truly Wicked or Canary Islands didn't win this race (though good luck to my mate Paul who has King Charles running). Truly Wicked may only have a 3/20 record but she's been running around in black type company for two years now and this is the easiest race she's been in during that time. First up last time in she charged home for 2nd to the very good mare, Beautiful Gem, in a Listed race for mares here carrying 57kg. Her previous two first up runs to that were narrow 2nds to Strikeline and Super Elegant. She sneaks in here with 51.5kg, Daniel Moor is in good form and she should get a good run from gate 8. Blahnik is a very good Adelaide sprinter who's 2 from 2 first up and is going to get a gun run from his good draw. Surprise Impact has disappointed me at his last couple of runs but has everything to suit today. Canary Islands is in the same category while Temple Hills is a good class NZ mare first up for the Moody-Nolen Juggernaut. 13-Truly Wicked; 8-Blahnik; 7-Surprise Impact
Race 8: If Rewaaya doesn't win then there's a whole heap that can. She ran a length 4th behind Takeover Target in the Lightning first up last time in a race where God's Own ran 2nd and Cape Of Good Hope 3rd. Not a bad race, that. The issue I have with her is that she always starts strongly in the market and hasn't won in her last 7 starts after winning her first 3. Recline is another from The Juggernaut who will press to the lead from her wide gate. She's 3 from 3 first up and is going to get an OK lead here. Vienetta is a very good NZ mare who comes out of a Group 1 race there last time. Pinezero ran 4th last time and was a bit unlucky but really didn't zip home when she got clear but she's a talented mare and has drawn to get a good run. Lake Charlotte is a pretty good performer from the Freedman camp, as is stablemate Storm Alert. Tough race, really. 14-Recline; 9-Rewaaya; 10-Storm Alert
Summary: I'm pretty keen on a few mares each way today. 3-4 Shinko Blu, 7-13 Truly Wicked and 8-14 Recine.
Yesterday: Fraschetti won at Cranbourne quite softly by 3/4L though the time wasn't that quick but she looks to have some scope to go on. Alan Bailey's Injebreck must have talent but be unsound, as he started $2.80 favourite, had a good run but didn't go on in the straight, finishing 8th. I'd put a line through it forever. Nothing else stood out from the rest of the races though Late Change won nicely in the last at Cranbourne and might be up to much better races.
POOMAs: There were no POOMA selections yesterday.
LOTD: Cashew was $2.60 on the morning line, started $5 and ran 2nd last so you'd have to think that it can't be sound.
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