SELECTIONS - 30 July 2006

Track Race-TAB Horse [Live Selections/Win Strike Rate %/ Profit %]

Hobart 6-1 General McAllister [87/34.5%/49%]
Warracknabeal 8-8 Emergence [70/30.0%/35%]

Non-POOMA selections:

Flemington 1-9, 5-8, 8-11
Hobart 1-7, 4-3
Kalgoorlie 2-8
Sale 1-9, 3-9, 5-2
Sunshine Coast 1-4, 3-1, 7-2
Warracknabeal 1-2, 1-4, 3-3, 3-5

In the non-POOMA selections I've marked in red the ones that have come out of my ruffies system. I don't use it as a POOMA system due to the low strike rate and consequential long losing runs but since it went live on 28/3/04 it's had 149 selections for 16 winners = 10.7% s/r and is showing a profit of 59%. Its best winner was Perceptive in Tassie last year that went into the race with form reading 0000 and it paid over $90 on Vic TAB. When Bluenunblessed won its maiden at around $60 it had form of 0997 and was never going to lose the race.

I had a bunch of quaddies yesterday and went out in six of them in the first leg. Disaster. I luckily finished well in front due to having a $20 bet that netted me the Newcastle race 9 for five units. Other than that I spent the day screwing up tickets.

Talking of Newcastle, the winner of race 6, National Icon, prepared by a trainer I've never heard of, Richard Baker, was having his second race start and his first since December 2003 when he raced in Canberra some 960 days ago. Quite amazing. I've just run an analyis across my database (TAB meetings only), which goes back to 1/1/2000 and it shows it's a rare event but not as rare as one might at first suppose. Looking for horses coming off a 2+ year break I found that there were 857 runners trying to fulfill the dreams of their obviously patient owners. How many won? 14. That's 1.7%, which is about the same as a $60 winner. So it's rare but not unexpected. Let's look at some of the more interesting stats.

On 16 August 2005 the 13 year old - that's right, 13 - Blues Grandee resumed from a 2,376 day spell. Obviously, his last run 2nd in a Class D race at the Woolamai picnics on 13 February 1999 convinced his durable owners that one day he could improve his 2 wins from 37 start record. Strangely enough, he ran last but was only beaten 14 lengths so that wasn't a bad effort all things considered. How were they keeping him fit enough to race? Pulling a milk cart? By the way, he started officially at 300/1. On 7 August 2001 Tassie Tiger attempted to win his maiden as a 9YO at his 7th start having had 2,149 days to prepare for his attempt at glory. You may be amazed to find that he started at 16/1 and ran 5th in a field of 11 beaten 7.2L. Outstanding stuff. Neither of those two horses was owned by the trainer, which makes one wonder. There were 136 runners coming off a 3+ year break for no wins.

So what about the winners? On 15 July 2002 King Joey, who was only a couple of weeks away from turning 10, came out of 1,085 days' hibernation to narrowly win, amazingly, a 1600m Class 3 race at Seymour at 50/1. That is the longest break to then win I have on record.

Now, you may think that horses coming off such long breaks will naturally be long odds. Far from it, dear reader. On 5 June 2002 at Balaklava, Danazar returned as a 4YO from a 753 day break to easily win a set weights maiden at $1.70 beating 9 rivals. Not only was he short but he was the tipster's pick and the late mail. His 3 previous runs as a 2YO had been in Listed and Group company in which he started favourite and ran a 2nd and two 4ths. If it wasn't a set weights maiden he would have had the grandstand. There are a few others that started at single figure odds and won so I guess the moral of the story is if they're in the market there must be a reason.

At Moonee Valley yesterday, Andrew Mallyon on Blutigeroo got completely outridden by Ben Smith on Delvecchio leaving punters lamenting. Other shorties in Hachiman, Haddle McDaddle and Paris Zero also never got their supporters' hopes up. That last one ran like Roger on Sunday morning after a St Kilda win.

Four heavy tracks and two slow ones from the eight TAB meetings today means that you should keep your wallet locked away for the day. In race 2 at Flemington the topweight, Fuji Fantasy, looks the goods and will be a fair price. It's rare to see Eric Musgrove with a 2YO runner let alone one that can actually gallop a bit. He's got this one going nicely, though. Looking for a bit of value for multiples I'll give out race 4=1,5,6,7; 5=2,8; 6=7,9,11; 7=5; 8=11. Other races around the place look a bit ordinary. No surprises there given it's Sunday. Express Star should kick off the first leg of the quaddie at Sale and Caesar's Jewel drops in grade for its assignment in race 3 at the Sunshine Coast. Way over in the mining town of Kalgoorlie, Lomondside Lass drops from a Class 2 race into a set weights maiden and she should go very close to breaking her duck.