SELECTIONS - 15 July 2006

Track Race-TAB Horse [Live Selections/Win Strike Rate %/ Profit %]

Belmont 1-3 Landspeed Cruiser [137/40.1%/18%]
Kembla 3-5 Flukepenny Princess [137/40.1%/18%]
Randwick 2-1 Litter [79/38.0%/64%]

Non-POOMA selections:

Belmont 5-7, 6-2, 8-7
Doomben 3-1, 4-1
Gold Coast 2-1
Horsham 4-4, 6-3, 7-10
Moonee Valley 2-5, 3-2, 5-9
Morphettville 8-4
Randwick 1-1, 1-6, 3-2, 3-6, 4-6, 4-9, 4-10, 7-2
Toowoomba 1-5, 2-3, 7-4

The POOMA got home yesterday, which continues the recovery we've been experiencing lately and Danny Williams got the predicted two winners at Canberra otherwise we were a bit off beam.

Starting the analysis with Moonee Valley - there's an enormous amount of speed in race 7 with numbers 3, 4, 5, 6 & 10 all pushing forward. Old Dandy Kid might have lost the dash required to win at 1000m and might find it tough. Amtrak is backing up from last week and drops in trip, I think he'll be outpaced. I expect 10-Beach Box to try and push up from gate 1 to lead, which he'll do until the corner at which point he'll drop out. Illusionist will probably be on his outside with Appian Way three deep on the turn. Whichever way it turns out, I think that Surprise Impact will be in the right spot to win the race, as he'll be camped right behind Illusionist. That mare won nicely as a POOMA last start and is going to start pretty short here. The difference between her previous 1000m wins and this race is that there's much more early pressure here than she's faced before. The whole meeting is quite open with nothing really standing out to me as a special.

Randwick is a bit of a trap meeting, as there are horses coming off big wins on heavy tracks and that form is always suspect. 3-6 Rosecutter is listed as a $2.80 favourite overnight but I'd suggest if you can get that then you're getting nearly $1 worth of value. Admittedly, she is coming out of a F&M race but her last start win was terrific. Drawing 14 of 14, Beadman settled her last, a position she still had to herself turning into the short Canterbury straight. However, a couple of slaps with the whip saw her demolish her opposition cruising to the line nearly 4L clear of the runner up. Average horses can't do that sort of thing.

If you can finish in front at Doomben then you'll be doing well. 3-5 Plachutta is listed at $9 overnight and she's drawn to get a perfect run. Looks a terrific e/w chance. Mandy Radecker gets back on board 5-9 Maizy May and with just 50.5kg this on pace runner will give a bold sight e/w.

Very good Canberra trainer, Matthew Dale (long term strike rate 22%), has taken Moorings On Parade to Kembla Grange for race 1. This filly was backed 3/1 into 10/9 at her first start when 4th to the very smart Throne Inn at Canberra. She then won her maiden nicely and started 15/1 in the Black Opal in which she finished 11th after drawing off the track. Ken Callaughan from Goulburn has 7-Xaartrick in the same race and he's quite smart also.

Peter Moody has Fukutsu in the first at Morphettville. Dunno how it goes but I wonder how the name snuck through. The meeting there looks awful.