Tuesday, July 11, 2006

SELECTIONS - 11 July 2006

Track Race-TAB Horse [Live Selections/Win Strike Rate %/ Profit %]

There are no POOMA selections today

Non-POOMA selections:

Randwick 3-1, 4-9, 6-4, 7-6
Townsville 1-1, 3-2, 5-4, 6-2, 9-4
Warrnambool 8-2

It's not mentioned in the selections above but I think that Randwick 1-1 Roll Over Rover will go close today. It'll probably be on the 3rd line of betting behind Crique and Federal Reserve so in the order of $4.50, which is good value. It finished begind Federal Reserve last time but wasn't well handled and I'm tipping it will improve for Larry Cassidy. In race 3 there, Prince Of Truth steps up from 1100m to 1550m but it's by Carnegie out of Pravda so you'd think the step up in trip could be right up his alley. The rest don't look outstanding and, if it runs up to its breeding then it could put a gap on them.

At Warrnambool I expect 5-5 Master Yo Yo to notch up a win for Darren Weir. The selection above, 8-2 Beech Hurst, is by General Nediym and they're typically quite poor on slow/heavy ground.

Horses that come out of NSW or Victoria and end up at Townsville, Rocky, Mackay etc tend to be given one run as a 'sighter' to tune them up for their second up run. Watch out for 3-13 Melia, 4-4 Hard Drivin' Mama and 5-1 Happy Viking at Townsville today. Hard Drivin' Mama started 5/2 in a $12K 3YO Class 3 last time and steps out in an open age $7K Class 1, which is actually a slight drop back in grade (normally an open age Class 1 is similar in class to a 3YO Class 6 race). Happy Viking was fist up for a year at Mackay last time on a heavy track in a stronger Class 2 race. He was backed from 12/1 into 7/1 and was beaten less than 6 lengths. He'll probably be each way odds today and is in the 'where there's smoke there's fire category'.

PS - My analysis of the two races yesterday was spot on. Let's see how good I am today!

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