SELECTIONS - 7 November 2006

POOMA selections:

Flemington 3-5 Bay Story
Flemington 6-8 Bianca
Flemington 9-2 Amyjaye Power

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Ascot 9-3
Echuca 5-3
Morphettville 8-7

Today: I've struggled on Melbourne Cup day for at least 25 years and I don't know what I'm doing differently now that will deliver an improvement. That said, it's incumbent on all racing followers to have a bet on the Cup so I'll do my best. Of course, it's a good day for a drink and a bad day to be a chicken; a day on which the TAB will go down for annoyingly long periods in spite of it happening every year to the same lame old excuse about unexpected demand; the Internet site will effectively be cacked so we'll miss getting bets on; and woe betide anyone that thinks sitting on the phone waiting for a TAB operator to answer any time in the next 15 minutes won't be par for the course. Even though the rail is out 4m around the back straight I don't reckon that horses will be able to come from a long way back and win so will concentrate on those up on the pace and racing midfield on the fence, with only a few exceptions. To the POOMAs at Flemington: 3-5 Bay Story had his first run in Australia and first run for a year when 3rd behind Irazu last time. Irazu then nearly made it into the Melbourne Cup field when 2nd in Saturday's SAAB Quality so that's really strong form and the next rung up from the Geelong Cup form. Keen on the quinella with the big grey, 4-Siamun, in that race. 6-8 Bianca ran a terrific race behind Reigning To Win last time and should have beaten that horse. The drop back to fillies' grade really suits and I think she's a genuine $2.50 chance. 9-2 Amyjaye Power is perfectly placed in this sprint and I'm working on the basis that the grandstand side will be the place to be. There's lots of pace in the race and he'll be able to park just off them and power over the top late.

Full analysis for Flemington as follows.

Race 1: Speed (Strong) - This is a your-guess-is-as-good-as-mine sort of race. Given that the grandstand flogged the flat side in the Salinger I reckon they'll all come to the outside so the higher the barrier the better. Royal Asscher has shown pace in both his runs and doesn't bump into his dual conquerer, Cinq Cento, in this race so I'll go for him. Of the rest of the raced brigade they all look pretty even and there are some well bred first starters. It's a good thing that this race is on at 10.20AM so we can all be watching it on telly and finishing our eggs and bacon before heading out for the day. Selections: 1-Royal Asscher, 2-Recooperate, 10-Gravitron

Race 2: Speed (Strong) - There looks to be a lot of speed here with go forward horses like Primrose Lane drawn off the track. Myalansky has drawn the inside and will position right behind them. Those drawn wide with no early speed will be in trouble like A Country Girl and they may elect to go forward today. Pekalan has come with a withering sprint at her last two runs to win but she's not drawn to get a run that will get her close enough to do that again, I suspect. Selections: 7-Star Mystic, 11-Interche, 4-Benko

Race 3: Speed (Strong) - Another race where there'll be a pretty solid tempo, which will be set by Raise The Curtain and Bugatti Royale with Vengo and Pride Of Westbury right behind them. Siamun ran a good race in the Geelong Cup and while that race isn't strong enough form for the Melbourne Cup it is for this race. He'll be parked out the back and will need to get a run through near the fence on the corner but Blake Shinn, who has won 3 from 4 on the horse, will know what to do. Vengo also ran well in the Geelong Cup and will have the run of the race. I expect the lightly raced international, Bay Story, to race well in this and the old stagers like Encosta Legend and Enzed could also figure. I'm not a big fan of betting in this race unless I can get around $8 for Siamun. Selections: 5-Bay Story, 4-Siamun, 2-Vengo

Race 4: Speed (Strong) - Looks like another test of stamina with Speedy Rossa, Funlove and Pasikatera rolling along at a good clip. Funlove, Fullaz and Martiniforus get good runs back along the rail and Elmatill and Storm Signal park out the back. Sera Cielo looks to get a good run a couple back and one off the fence along with Imana. I like this as a betting race, as I think that Imana, Speedy Rossa, Funlove and Martiniforus represent good value. Imana gets in really well at the weights so she goes on top from Speedy Rossa and Martiniforus. Selections: 2-Imana, 8-Speedy Rossa, 5-Martiniforus

Race 5: Speed (Flogging along) - You're not going to see too many 1000m races run up the straight at headquarters at a dawdle, especially with horses like Miss Evergreen in the race. Jockeys will assess where the best going is after the first race but I'll assume they'll come to the grandstand again. These straight races are a lottery for that reason and I dislike this race so much that I'm not even going to try and work it out. If that weak cat, Aurelio, gets home then they should tear the grandstand down. For the record...Selections: 6-Letmeenterrainyou, 14-Miss Evergreen, 2-Follow The Till

Race 6: Speed (Average) - Horses racing handy to the speed should be advantaged in this, as there doesn't look to be a whole heap of early pace. Devil Moon can kick up from the inside to lead or be right behind them, World Joy is also forward with Mute. Absolutelyfabulous will have to go back from the draw, which should put paid to her winning chances. Corton Charlemagne will get the perfect sit and after her good last start win is my top selection. World Joy should be able to finish off strongly and Flame of Sydney should also be thereabouts. Bianca should have knocked off Reigning To Win last time and drops back to fillies' grade here. Selections: 8-Bianca, 4-Corton Charlemagne, 5-World Joy

Race 7: Speed (Strong) - As per my full post on the race. Selections: 4-Tawqeet, 5-Geordieland, 12-Pop Rock, 23-Maybe Better

Race 8: Speed (Average) - A clear leader here in the Hayes' runner, Lancettier, and he should be able to get a soft lead, which will make him tough to run down in what looks a very open race. Polar Bear and Dr Nipantuck will race forward and He's A Perla, Alto Adige and Hassle will get the gun runs on the fence and horses like Duoro Valley and Mock will be in trouble wide and back in the field. Black Panther looks likely to settle midfield along with Life's A Bounty. I'm pretty keen on Polar Bear after his good run behind Maybe Better last time. Selections: 2-Polar Bear, 11-Lancettier, 3-Black Panther

Race 9: Speed (Strong) - Open sprints down the straight are always a testing assignment and there should be good speed here from some natural front runners: Bold Matador, Early Singer and Monahan Tweed. The horses drawn wide may well be advantaged again but if they win down the rail in the other straight races then you'll need to adjust your selections accordingly. This race is a bit of a lottery, really. Amyjaye Power get into this race very well and has drawn the right spot if they're winning down the grandstand side. I won't put quaddies on until I've seen the other straight races (assuming the TAB hasn't completely melted down by this point; at least they have a ready made excuse for the meltdown - global warming) to determine which side has an advantage, if any. Selections: 2-Amyjaye Power, 1-Stratton Place, 11-Byway

Race 10: Speed (Average) - Leaders look to be Free The Robber, Zaheerina and Storm Ace from Creek Side, Flying Langfuhr and Roubechon. I think that the ones at the top of the weights have this one to themselves and I won't be going wide to finish off the quaddie. Roubechon plummets in class so far his ears will pop. He has drawn ideally and will be hard to hold out. Flying Langfuhr is also down in grade. He's been running well and will get a good run from the gate. Bodacious Harmony has enough early speed to get a good position and she'll be right there at the end. Selections: 1-Roubechon, 2-Flying Langfuhr, 14-Bodacious Harmony

Yesterday: There was one meeting, at Hamilton, which was uninteresting in the extreme even if I did do very well on the three races I invested on.

POOMAs: 1 from 2 yesterday returning a short $1.50. Well, Vereker Street notched up an overdue win at 1/2. He settled nicely a bit further back than he has raced previously and he rounded them up nicely in the straight. I counted our other selection Classy Run's legs as he went across the line and he still seemed to have all four but I think he may have been only using three of them in the run, as he put in a shocker as favourite only beating one to the line.