2006 MELBOURNE CUP ANALYSIS

The 2006 edition of the great race brings together a high quality collection of local and international stayers to ensure that this year's winner is from the top shelf. Can the highly rated Irish stayer, Yeats, show Australia how good he really is? Can the 3YO, Efficient, also be effective? (* update - not now that he's scratched *) Can Tawqeet prove that he's the best stayer in the country by following up on his Metropolitan and Caulfield Cup wins with victory today? Whatever the outcome, we'll know the answers some three minutes and twenty seconds after the gates crash back to the roar of what will undoubtedly be a mighty crowd at Flemington.

It’s worth noting that seemingly every year one of the internationals manages to run a place. Last year’s running lacked a bit of depth from the internationals (outside of the great Vinnie Roe) but in 2004 Vinnie Roe ran 2nd, in 2003 Jardine’s Lookout ran 3rd, in 2002 Media Puzzle won (after winning the Geelong Cup) and Beekeeper ran 3rd, in 2001 Give The Slip ran 2nd and the mighty Persian Punch 3rd, in 2000 Second Coming ran 3rd, in 1999 Central Park ran 2nd, and in 1998 Persian Punch ran 3rd. They always tend to pay really well for the place, also, so if you like one then you’ll get good place value.

My tips: 4-Tawqeet, 5-Geordiland, 12-Pop Rock, 23-Maybe Better

Full summary, as follows:

1-Yeats - This horse is obviously a top class stayer and he’s run in 6 Group 1 staying events in Europe in 11 career starts, winning 2 and being placed in another. He won Ascot Gold Cup at 4000m and then the Goodwood Cup at 3200m before going down as a 2/7 favourite last time out in the Irish St Leger when he went to the front a long way out and had no sprint at the end. The only horse in recent years to run a place with 59kg was the great Vintage Crop when 3rd in 1999 though Makybe Diva won with 58kg and Vinnie Roe ran 2nd with the same weight in 2004. Is Yeats as good as Vintage Crop, Vinnie Roe or Makybe Diva? I don’t think so though if I’m keen enough to play a First4 I’ll stick him in for 3rd/4th. It also can’t help that Kieren Fallon is having his first race ride at Flemington in this.

2-Delta Blues - This horse ran a great race in the Caulfield Cup to run 3rd after being deep all of the way and kill my trifecta, which paid $30K. With the Japanese getting better at taking their good horses overseas in recent years you have to be wary of them. He’s run against Deep Impact and Heart’s Cry, Japan’s top horses, and done OK so I won’t write him off completely but think he’s probably a 3rd/4th place chance like Yeats.

3-Railings - If this one wins then we’ll all have to bow down to a great training performance by John Hawkes. He keeps on running home but even from his nice draw and with Darren Beadman on board I can only rate him a fluker’s chance at best. That said, he’ll probably finish in the first half of the field.

4-Tawqeet - This fellow has been my long range pick for the Melbourne Cup and I’ll stick with him. His wins in the Metropolitan and Caulfield Cup have been very strong and he’ll be absolutely cherry ripe for this. Has drawn perfectly in 9 and I’m sure that in form jockey, Dwayne Dunn, will give him the run of the race.

5-Geordiland - I reckon that this one is the perfect type of horse to bring from Europe for a Melbourne Cup. He ran 2nd to Yeats first up in the 3200m Goodwood Cup beaten 5L. Frankie eased him down considerably at the end and really should have only been beaten 2L and the fact that he meets Yeats 3kg better and has the luxury weight (for him) of just 54kg gives him a great chance. He then ran 4th in the Ebor with 61.5kg over 2800m, which was a good enough run even though he finished behind runner up, Glistening, which he meets 1.5kg better.

6-Headturner - People keep telling me that this horse is a chance. Don’t worry about his lead up form; he’s been set for the one race, they say. What the heck have the other 23 runners (perhaps excluding Efficient) been doing if not getting set for this? The only thing going for him is that he’ll be fit and will be ridden by Greg Childs. If you’re backing this one at less than $100 then you’re getting unders.

7-Short Pause - If Short Pause wins then there’ll be a Long Pause while punters look forlornly at their tickets for number 7 before disposing of them (stick them in the bin!) and sauntering over to the bar for a soothing tonic. He’ll be looking to catch the St Kilda tram about 800m out but won’t find one handy even if he could work the ticket machine with his hooves, and will finish near the rear.

8-Activation - Why oh why oh why couldn’t this horse lob 3rd in the Caulfield Cup and give me the trifecta? He had a perfect run on the fence, got off at the right time and was outstayed by a horse that sat wide all of the way. He has not dissimilar form to when Makybe Diva won her first Cup with a 4444 formline, which showed she was always making ground from back in the field. The fact that he’s drawn 22 is a real problem for Michael Rodd, as he’ll need to snag the horse out the back to get to the fence and then look for a rails run on the way home. Unfortunately, there’ll be too many in front of him and I think he’s really only a rough chance.

9-Land 'n' Stars - At first glance you’d write this horse off completely but given the fact that his most recent wins have been at 16/1, 33/1, 50/1 and 12/1 you’d have to think that he might be the right odds at $50 in this. The hardness of the track might have been against him in the Caulfield Cup so, whereas it would be a surprise for him to run in the first half dozen, I might stick him in some multiples as one with a fluker’s hope.

10- Mahtoum - It’s nice that Mark Waugh’s missus, Kim, will have a Melbourne Cup runner and it’d be even nicer if it just stays out of the way and doesn’t bugger up the chances of the genuine hopes. Kim has been racing this one out of his grade for a little while. She should aim at winning Country Cups with him.

11-On A Jeune - Steamed home from back in the field for 2nd in last year’s Cup behind the great mare. That followed a narrow win in the Geelong Cup, a race in which he finished 6th this year under the steadier of 58kg. I doubt the strength of this year’s Geelong Cup because the time was much slower than when he won last year or when Media Puzzle set a track record. He drops down to 53kg, which is a leisurely weight given what he’s used to and could lob a place at odds.

12-Pop Rock - His was a terrific run in the Caulfield Cup when he went up the straight on one rein, as he was hanging, but still made ground strongly to finish 7th beaten only 1.4L on a day when it was hard to make ground from the back of the field. He looks to have genuine claims at what will be his first start at two miles.

13-Zipping - He was my long range Caulfield Cup tip and I was very confident on the day but the way the track played conspired against him so I thought he was unlucky. He followed up with a win in the MV Cup but I don’t think he’s a chance here, as he’s by Danehill and the two miles will be beyond him. Elvstroem was a much better horse, also by Danehill, was out of staying mare, Circles Of Gold, and he could only run 4th so I’m prepared to put the pen through Zipping, though he’ll probably run in the first half of the field.

14-Dizelle - She keeps running creditably, as she did again when a 1.6L 8th in the Caulfield Cup but you’d have to think that if she was the best of the John Hawkes runners then Darren Beadman would be riding her. She’s bred to be terrific but hasn’t really got there. I think she could finish in the first half of the field.

15-Ice Chariot - Here’s another runner that would cause stress to most punters if he managed to run a place let alone win the whole thing. His lead up form is hopeless and I expect him to finish in the back half of the field.

16-Kerry O'Reilly - He sneaks in with a light weight given what he’s used to but I can’t see him figuring anywhere in the finish even if he was a bit unlucky in the Geelong Cup. As his name suggests, he’s by O’Reilly, which is better known as a sire of sprinters than stayers so he’d have to be a big query at the trip. I’ll put him down to finish with the cap catchers.

17-Zabeat - Looks the likely pacemaker from his wide draw and I predict he’ll need a pacemaker of his own about half a mile out given his last run. If a horse can come off being beaten 32.7L and run well in a Melbourne Cup then I’ll go whee, even if he does have good two mile form with a win and three placings from six goes.

18-Art Success - He may well have won the Brisbane Cup over two miles last year but that race is generally full of scrubbers – Gorgeous George ran 2nd (who?) and Sculptor 3rd (who?) – and his lead up form hasn’t been good enough to figure here. Good luck to connections in having a Melbourne Cup runner. I hope they enjoy the day.

19-Demerger - She had similar lead in form to last year’s Cup in which she finished 13th beaten 8L and she looks to be a contender for another midfield finish this year. She’s drawn off the track, which isn’t necessarily a problem as Brew showed in 2000 when winning from gate 22, but she doesn’t have the tactical speed to get a position that will help her get home.

20-Glistening - Everyone has written this English stayer off, as he’s only won one race from 11 goes and that was a Maiden last year. However, his form shows a 2nd to Tawqeet at York last year, a 2nd in the Ebor with 57kg when beating home Geordiland two starts back, and a 3rd at Group 3 level last time over 2400m at Ascot. With only 51kg he would have to be a teensy-weensy hope in this even from his draw out in the car park and I’ll stick it in multiples.

21-Mandela - I don’t rate the form from this year’s Geelong Cup so don’t give this one any hope at all. My main issue is that the time was so slow when in the past the horses that have come through that race and performed well have run in a quick race at Geelong. The real advantage if he has any is that he’s got the in form Craig Williams to guide him from his OK barrier draw.

22-Dolphin Jo - Here’s another runner that will suck in the money of all the Joes, Josephines and whatnot out there but to no avail, as he has as much hope as I do of winning the 100m at the 2008 Beijing Olympics. It’ll be nice for connections to have a runner.

23-Maybe Better - My first view of this horse was that he wouldn’t be competitive however I’ve reassessed my position and think that he is really a very good each way chance. His last two runs have been excellent lead ups for a Melbourne Cup and to sneak in with just 50kg puts him in the Brew category. I potted this horse for being one paced in his runs but trainer, Brian Mayfield-Smith, has changed tactics (probably due to bad barriers) and allowed the horse to settle back and run home and he has really improved. He’s drawn 3 so I hope they don’t try and position too close early, allow him to settle midfield and come with his run in the straight. I do have a bit of a query of him running a strong two miles given he’s by Intergaze but he does seem to defy the trend.

24-Efficient - SCRATCHED.