SELECTIONS - 11 November 2006

POOMA selections:

Ascot 3-6 Marasco
Flemington 1-2 Airstream
Flemington 2-2 Husson Lightning
Flemington 3-7 Valkyrie Diva
Flemington 4-9 Made Your Mark
Flemington 5-8 Nediym's Glow
Flemington 8-16 Zavite
Newcastle 6-2 Next Adventure

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Ascot 6-2
Flemington 5-4
Geelong 2-7, 6-2
Gold Coast 6-6
Randwick 3-5
Victoria Park 8-2

Today: The last day of a record breaking Spring carnival. Flemington only needs something like 45,000 today to break the carnival attendance record, which would seem like a tens-on favourite to me. Track is dead at Flemington but I expect either an upgrade or for it to play fairly. The selections for Flemington are analysed below. At Newcastle, 6-2 Next Adventure comes from a system with a 50%+ strike rate. He's trained by one of my old trainers, Mack Griffith, and won nicely last time in a similar race. Ascot 3-6 Marasco is touted as the next Northerly, as he races in the same colours and is trained by Fred Kersley. I don't know about that but his first up win was comprehensive and a repeat performance will see him get home again today. Today looks to be a pretty good one to be having a go, as the formlines are a bit clearer than over the last week. As always, look for value and pick your races carefully.

Analysis for Flemington as follows.

Race 1: Speed (Average) - Sunlad and Artorius probably set the pace here with Exalted Madam, Airstream and Northern Point not far away. Airstream is a really good sprinter, has won here, goes very well fresh but has drawn slightly awkwardly in 6. He should be able to come across behind the leaders and will finish off hard. He's the first POOMA of the day. Bond Street is an up and comer that is working through his grades nicely but also has to overcome the inside gate. Montechoro ran well in a good race behind Anna's Choice last time and he looks well placed in the race but...has drawn the inside gate. Given the way the straight races have been playing it's possible that those drawn the high gate numbers go a bit silly and set the race up for those coming up the crown of the track, which my selections will be doing. Selections: 2-Airstream, 5-Bond Street, 3-Montechoro

Race 2: Speed (Average) - Not too much to write here. Meurice leads easily. He had a touch of the speedy squibs last time when winning his debut and the Hayes trained Husson Lightning ran well enough in the Gimcrack to be the pick to run him down. Superfly looks like the 3rd placegetter. Selections: 2-Husson Lightning, 1-Meurice, 7-Superfly

Race 3: Speed (Strong) - Hidden Strings, Pin Up and Anapine go forward and set up a fair clip in this race. From her good gate our POOMA selection, Valkyrie Diva, gets the gun run and races as though this trip will really suit. I expect Anapine to run a vastly improved race on her last start effort so don't leave her out of multiples. She drew the carpark last time and was never a chance. With the strong pace those parked out the back like Purde, Pavlova and Celtic Bloom will get their chance to power home. Kosi Bay also looks like she gets a good run. Happy to play in this race. Selections: 7-Valkyrie Diva, 14-Anapine, 13-Celtic Bloom

Race 4: Speed (Average) - Made Your Mark launched out of the 15 gate at Seymour last time, had a battle for the lead, won that, went a couple in front before the corner, increased the margin and coasted to the line to win easily (ignore the formguides that have him settling midfield and then midfield on the corner, they're quite wrong). In a race where there's no pace and some others that don't really finish off he is going to be outstanding value. Sunglazed has been running over 1000m and been near the front so it's likely that Dunn will be up the front with the step up to 1400m. Tullamarine, What's The Time and Far Horizons all get nice runs close to the speed and will be therabouts. Revise will park right behind them also but is up a lot in grade. My Middi had a soft run to win last time and probably has to do more work from the wide gate. Danzylum keeps finding the line in weaker races. Selections: 9-Made Your Mark, 1-My Middi, 8-Danzylum

Race 5: Speed (Average) - Nediym's Glow and Murray Downs are up the front in this but not at any great pace. The rest will settle in their normal racing position with Magnus right behind them and Undue out the back with Black Ink. Key to this race is pace. Nediym's Glow got gassed early in the race behind the flying Gold Edition in which Splashing Out ran home for 2nd. I can't see that happening today and expect her to sprint home quickly over the final 400m to victory. Splashing Out has come a long way in her first preparation and must be a chance with her light weight and Magnus looks the other one with a hope. If Undue is within 2L at the 400m then it might be goodnight, nurse, as he has a big finish. Selections: 8-Nediym's Glow, 9-Splashing Out, 4-Magnus

Race 6: Speed (Strong) - Apache Cat and Seachange have drawn deep and will need to go forward with most people predicting one of the two will lead with Desert War right behind them. I'm not too sure about that. I reckon that Desert War will kick up from his good gate and hold them out, which will hurt the chances of those two other horses at least one of which looks a serious contender. He's an iron horse, Desert War, and loves to dominate from in front. The pace will be strong early but should then be run at a good clip so all horses should get their chance. Divine Madonna will obviously be out the back and with only 51kg will be rocketing home late. She was terrific last time coming from well back on a day when nothing could make ground. Bentley Biscuit did what most horses do the first time they see Caulfield and got on the wrong leg before the corner. Once he balanced up late he zoomed home and he is a definite threat. I've been potting Lad Of The Manor away from MV but his mile record can't be ignored, as well as the fact that he performs well at this track so I wouldn't be surprised to see him run into the placings. Selections: 1-Desert War, 15-Divine Madonna, 2-Lad Of The Manor

Race 7: Speed (Average) - A clear leader here though not at any great pace in New Edge. Forest Spy, Watchyerback and Shadowmaker will sit in the chasing brigade and Royal Ida will park out the back in company with Polish Clown. The topweight, Royal Ida, has got it against him today with the slow speed and 60kg so I'm prepared to leave him out even though he has a terrific record. New Edge has been busting to win one lately and has been unlucky not to join Takeover Target as a Queanbeyan trained Group winner. Our Apache ran well at Caulfield before having his chances wrecked on that biased track last week. He's a horse that takes a few runs to hit his peak and today he really does have conditions to suit. Falaise is obviously going well though he's by Grand Lodge and if the track is genuinely dead then I'm happy to go around him. Selections: 4-New Edge, 9-Our Apache, 5-Shadowmaker

Race 8: Speed (Average) - Show Barry takes the lead in this with Blue Collar Jack from Zavite and Gallant Guru with Pantani and Jagger at the rear. I'm going for an outsider in the up and comer, Zavite, from the in form Anthony Cummings stable. I thought he was a chance in the 2800m race on Cup day but he didn't make the field, as he was an emergency. That race was won by Southern Courage, which had finished runner up to Zavite at its previous run and Bay Story was 2nd. The horse has only had a handful of runs, seems to stay all day (he's a Zabeel) and at the odds I'm prepared to make him a POOMA, as he'll be double what he should be. Vanquished is a very poorly named horse. You might as well name your horse 'Loser'. However, he's been racing very well and must be a chance, as should Magic Instict. Bay Story was OK after having had a short break last time and Show Barry has to be considered. Like a lot of horses, Gallant Guru has improved when going to the Lee Freedman stable. There must be something in the air down there at Rye. Heh. You can't leave him out of quaddies and the like. Selections: 16-Zavite, 3-Vanquished, 12-Magic Instinct

Race 9: Speed (Average) - Dr Nipandtuck, Utility, Quilter and maybe Hollidazzle will settle forward with Ulysses and Rubijon out the back. Trick Of Light looks to get a terrific run behind them along with Mock. The mare, Trick Of Light, keeps on winning and carried a big weight to a narrow victory last time. This is a big step up in grade and I'll only have her in for the place but if she can win then I'd suggest she's up to winning a black type race, especially in mares' company. Ulysses is my top pick but as I've mentioned before, he is Australia's worst wet tracker having not run a place in 12 goes on dead or worse. If the track is not upgraded then his chances diminish a lot. Threedee gets into a race he can win and Rubijon is also in the mix along with Correct Amondo. A very tricky leg to finish off the quaddie. Selections: 5-Dr Nipandtuck, 2-Threedee, 13-Trick Of Light

Yesterday: I went out for lunch, went home, had a lie down and missed the $16 winner at Townsville in the non-POOMA selections. I didn't see any of the races. At least the food was good.

POOMAs: One POOMA yesterday at Townsville, See You Twist, which sat on the pace but got run down in the final 100m to add to our frustrating run of 2nds lately.