2005 COX PLATE

Looks like a dead to slow track, which will hurt the chances of some of the field and help others.

I think that, in the grand scheme of things, this is an average field in terms of strength. The fact that a 7YO mare is favourite and a 6YO non-G1 winner in Lad Of The Manor is a serious chance underlines the point. I have a view that racing in general around the world is going through a bit of a quality rut at present, which evens things up when horses travel, as we saw in the Caulfield Cup.

My thoughts:

1-Grey's Inn: terrific 1st up run, kept fighting, drawn well, is a real chance
2-Lad Of The Manor: excellent track/wet credentials and beat MD here in the Feehan. Big chance.
3-Super Kid: no chance.
4-Confectioner: people are kidding themselves if they think this one's a chance.
5-Desert War: will sit close and is as tough as nails. He'll be in my multiples.
6-FOO: keeps on keeping on. Will probably give a sight but the draw kills his winning chance. Could place.
7-Tosen Dandy: yours.
8-Xcellent: may not run on the wet track. On dry ground would have been my top pick but I'll leave him out now.
9-Outback Prince: if he wins we all need to give it away but he could lob a place at huge odds. I'll have him in trifectas.
10-Makybe Diva: super mare, super chance. Won in a canter last time. Will still need everything to go right.
11-Sky Cuddle: surely she's not a G1 2000m performer?
12-Lotteria: I'm taking this one on top, as I reckon she'll just get the right run either leading or behind the leader.
13-God's Own: has class and only won last time because the leader fell in a hole. If it hadn't and this one ran 2nd then it wouldn't be single figures. Could place. If he wins then I'm out of the quaddie.
14-Hotel Grand: he's by notorious wet track dud sire, Grand Lodge, which probably kills his chance. Is a serious stayer in the making and I'll predict he'll be in the thick of things in next year's Caulfield Cup.

I'll go:

12-Lotteria
10-Makybe Diva
2-Lad Of The Manor
5-Desert War