Waaaay back in September 2002 debate was raging on the Ausrace racing forum over the merits of Sunline's performances, the quality of her opposition and whatnot. Bizarrely, the people who pot Sunline then call Might And Power a champion in spite of his inferior record. As you'll always hear me say - objectivity is a key ingredient to making a success of the game called punting. People called Lonhro a champion. I didn't...but, gee, I won a lot of money on him, as I did on another non-champion, Might And Power. It was really clear when they were going to win and when they were up against it.
The following is an email I sent to Ausrace outlining the relative strengths of the 1998-2001 Cox Plate fields. The Sunline-potters, ill-led by The Red Baron, Pete, were using the loss to Fairway to denegrate her in their typically unobjective manner, which is what the email is referring to at the start...
18/9/02
Fairway was a top class horse and on his day (he won 7 Group races) back then and was more than competitive with the best around but that win was a surprise as his form was only average going into the run against Sunline. Belmura Lad beat Kingston Town one day, as well, and Dandy Andy beat Vo Rogue in the Australian Cup so the fact that a champion horse gets beaten doesn't diminish the quality of their performances. We don't know how good Fairy King Prawn is compared to the rest of our horses - he may be many lengths better. Jim & Tonic certainly looked to be every time he swept past ours in Hong Kong and there wasn't much between those three in Dubai. FKP won a G1 race in Japan at 2000m, which is really the benchmark distance in the world.
I should probably have added Solvit's 1994 win to the mix but beating Rough Habit (who was 50/1 that day), Durbridge (a super WFA competitor), the 3YO Danewin (who was in good form but was guided by the rudderless Jackie Tse), Tristalove (who had swept all before her in the 3YO filly races the previous season and had won and been placed at its two previous Group runs), another top 3YO in St Covet (who finished 2.9 lengths behind them, which was closer than I thought he would because I didn't think he would stay the trip) and Jeune (who, if memory serves me right, was 'excited' in the parade ring and ran 2nd last as a 3/1 favourite) puts it well above the 1998 rubbish.
There were only 8 runners in 2001 but the race was all class with Northerly, Sunline & Viscount fighting out a famous finish with the well-touted visitor Silvano running 4th. I don't need to remind people of that race. Viscount ended the season the top rated 3YO and the other two were Horse Of The Year contenders. Regardless of your views on Sunline v Northerly etc, you have to recognise their collective quality.
In 2000, the track was slow and that wrecked the chances of some of the major hopes but it's a decent field that included the 2000 Caulfield Cup winner in Diatribe (who smashed M&P's track record in that race by nearly a second [5+ lengths] - in fact, the 8th horse home, Streak, also beat M&P's old record), Testa Rossa (won the G1 Vic Health Cup in his lead up runs and came out after the Cox Plate to win the G1 Emirates Stakes under 59.5kg from the outside gate 16 in a famous run), Show A Heart (who was in good 3YO form), Shogun Lodge (won the Epsom two runs prior) and Tie The Knot, as well as other previous Group 1 winners in Referral not to forget Oliver Twist who had won the Underwood Stakes a couple of runs before going into the Cox Plate and then came out at his next run and won the G1 Mackinnon. Not as good as the 1999 or 2001 field (in terms of the immediate form of the runners going into the race) but light years ahead of the 1998 field (see below).
In 1999, the field included Tie The Knot, who was a prolific Group race winner and was in top form going into the race, the 1999 Australian Derby and Caulfield Cup winner, Sky Heights (whose form going into the Cox Plate read 21211 all in Group 1 and 2 races so it's a furphy to suggest he was a plodder at the time - he certainly became a plodder after his 'incident' in the Melbourne Cup but even so he managed to win four Group races including a G1 as a plodder and I'd be happy owning a horse that could do that), the top class 3YOs Testa Rossa 4th (form read 11212 including the G1 Vic Health Cup) and Redoute's Choice 5th (form read 1431 including the Caulfield Guineas in that titanic struggle with Testa Rossa), the giant-killing Intergaze ran 6th (who would believe that he would win 8 G1 races, 7 of them before that Cox Plate?) and Inaflury had form reading 11333 all in Group 1 & 2 races going into the race, which is why she started 8/1. It's interesting to realise that Sunline started 6/1 and the favourite at 7/2 was Redoute's Choice. Now that is definitely a very strong race.
By comparison, the 1998 Cox Plate won by M&P included Northern Drake 2nd (who started 100/1 with form going into the race reading 42408), Tycoon Lil 3rd (11/2 and went into the race with form reading 2222 - she never won an open age G1 race so I don't know why people use her as any sort of quality reference point at all), the 3YO Dodge 4th (won the Epsom before the Cox Plate in 1998 and then really never got close to winning after that), Catalan Opening 5th (form 3584), Doriemus 6th (to show how out of form he was, his runs including his last two preparations read 37622x86032x7372 - the last 2nd was in the Metropolitan, hardly a classic lead up race to the Cox Plate - Saintly excepted!), 3YO Dracula 7th (solid form 63117, which included the George Main), Batavian 8th (48640x2 - went into the race with just one run from a spell under his belt), Gold Guru 9th (form 45823), 3YO Kenwood Melody 10th (went into the race in good form, 2111, in 3YO company and started 3rd favourite at 9/1), and Super Slew 11th and last (had better form than most in the race with 152332 but still started 100/1). Even M&P went into the race with substandard form compared to the 1999, 2000 and 2001 winners. He'd only won 2 of his 4 starts from a spell and those were in 5 and 7 horse fields. He was unplaced (4th & 7th) in 9 horse fields in both other runs.
Of the 11 runners in that 1998 Cox Plate, four of them never raced again - Tycoon Lil, Batavian (who was probably at the end of his career anyway), Kenwood Melody and Super Slew. I have mentioned previously that the track was rock hard that year, as the MV club had not watered it (all clubs do this at carnival time to get fast times), and this contributed to both the track record run by M&P (though Kenwood Melody was beaten 9 lengths and broke the old record, as well, which just goes to show what I mean about record times generally not being a good guide) and the high number of horses that broke down after racing at MV at that time.
Of the other 6 runners in the race other than the winner, the following is their collective post Cox Plate record:
Runs 32 (of which Gold Guru is 16)
Wins 2 (Gold Guru won a handicap race in South Australia and Northern Drake won a 6 horse G1 Yalumba Stakes)
Placings 6
Now, Ladies and Gentlemen, THAT is why I refer to M&P's Cox Plate being the weakest for years. M&P's rivals had very ordinary form going into the race compared to other Cox Plates and diabolical form afterwards.
I believe I have provided a more than objective analysis, Pete. Now, if you were being truly objective, then I believe you will retract your statement about the quality of the last three Cox Plate fields being the worst of modern times and agree that the 1998 running takes that dubious honour by so far you'd need the Hubble Telescope to see it.
Cheers,
John
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment