Saturday, October 15, 2005

SELECTIONS - 15 October 2005

The criteria for October will be a modification of the previous qualification process. It will still be profitable systems with a minimum of 10 live selections and acceptable Chi-Squared figures but I've added in a couple of more stringent tests to weed out underperforming systems more quickly. You'll see the performance for the selections in the form of a set of numbers laid out as [Live Selections/Strike Rate%/POT%] that let you know how they're going.

Caulfield 6-4 Activation [19/36.8%/205%]
Caulfield 8-9 Railings [12/50.0%/107%]

The Caulfield Cup looks a tricky race. The POOMA, Railings, looks a strong chance but he's going to need to come from well back. I've always thought that Mummify was going to run a big race as long as the track was dry, which it is. He's coming from barrier 17 and, whereas no winner has come from wider than 13 in the last 5 years of all 2400m races at Caulfield, there are three Cup 2nd placegetters who've come from gate 17: Sky Heights in 2001, Grey Song in 2003 and Makybe Diva in 2004. They've all paid $4+ for the place, as well. The ones I'm not giving a winning chance to are: 2, 4, 6, 7, 12, 13, 14, 17, 19, 20. The ones I'll work around are: 1, 5, 9, 11, 16.

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