SELECTIONS - 18 October 2008

POOMA selections (Location Race#-TAB# Horse [system/s])

Toowoomba 3-1 Cattleman [10]

Non-POOMA selections (and ruffies in red below):

Ascot 4-10
Caulfield 9-10
Eagle Farm 6-2
Morphettville 7-1
Narromine 6-1, 7-1
Randwick 7-3

(* Any updates at Ascot later on *)

Comments: Caulfield Cup day is always a good day to have a go, as there are good races with good horses to back that will be value. In the Caulfield Cup I've put Master O'Reilly on top (see black book comment) with the dangers being Littorio, Nom De Jeu, Red Ruler, Boundless and Riva San. I give Weekend Hussler no hope. Winners since 2000 have been Diatribe ($6.90), Ethereal ($9.10), Northerly ($4.50), Mummify ($6.30), Elvstroem ($4.10), Railings ($8.20), Tawqeet ($19) and Master O'Reilly ($5.60). Here's something to think about when trying to work out the winner and multiples. Every single placegetter since 2000 has run a place at their last start, they've all run either 7 days or 14 days ago and in Group 1 or 2 races. Aged 4, 5 or 6 they've all been at their 3rd, 4th or 5th run from a spell. Using those this year gives us 6, 9, 12, 13, 18 to go along with number 3. Going through the card at Caulfield my top selections in each race are: 1-2, 2-5, 3-9 (keen on this one), 4-1 (should win), 5-8, 6-15, 7-2 (keen e/w), 8-3, 9-3, 10-5. Toowoomba 3-1 Cattleman looks the winner here with Chakvetadze out of the race, as he's dropping in grade after a good 2nd, albeit when odds on, in Class 3 company last time.

Black Book: Ascot 7-6 Swan Bee won under a throttle hold two starts back, went into the black book and then gave us a small return at odds on when winning before going for a spell. This is a hard race so I'll assess him on this run. Ascot 8-10 Inarticulate made it 5 in a line and then was beaten at $1.50. Resumes from a spell and should run well in this, his first go in decent company. Caulfield 8-3 Master O'Reilly won this race for us last year as a black booker and put in a terrific effort 2nd up when steaming home for 2nd place behind Littorio. He's the best mile and a half horse in this field and I expect him to go very close to racking up a second win in the race. Caulfield 9-3 Sunburnt Land has been revealed as a pretty smart sprinter and has been good to us as a black booker. He's going to get a perfect run from the gate and he looks a great chance along with Grand Duels and Aichi. Eagle Farm 3-4 Chakvetadze could be absolutely anything given the way she's won her only two runs. Cleared out by 7.8L last time, no mean feat over 1000m, and won under a Full Nelson. Should justify her short odds in this. Randwick 7-8 Dillinger is first up at 1400m after being unlucky not to win when wintering in Brisbane due to the Randwick track being closed for World Youth Day. He'll have residual fitness after a break of only 66 days and I'll be taking him one out in quaddies.