Ahhh, Melbourne Cup day. A good day for the wine industry. A bad day for chickens. Hopefully, I can do better this year than most other years on this day, which have tended to be disasters.
This year's field has been weakened by the EI outbreak, which means two things. 1-Master O'Reilly's chances are improved and 2-if the overseas runners are any good then they might be a chance.
Melbourne Cup analysis:
I'm assuming that the track will be no worse than dead. If it is then you're on your own, though I still expect Master O'Reilly to win.
The tips in order are: 11-Master O'Reilly; 23-Princess Coup; 2-Blue Monday; 9-Zipping; 12-Purple Moon.
Horses ruled out:
The SAAB Quality form is awful so I'm ruling out the runners from that race: 17-Sculptor; 21-The Fuzz; 10-Black Tom. The MV Cup form is also very average and I'm not giving them any chance so out go: 13-Lazer Sharp; 16-Sarrera; 18-Dolphin Joe. Horses horribly out of form that look to have no upside are also ruled out: 1-Tawqeet; 5-Railings; 6-Efficient; 7-Maybe Better. Horses that I don't think will stay the trip: 19-Duoro Valley. So that takes care of half the field.
Best roughie:
3-Bluetigeroo
The other imports:
8-Tungsten Strike and 24-Mahler will take up the running and go at a fair clip, I expect. That will break the horses running in the first half of the field and set it up for the midfield runners to get clear and run home to win. If Mahler is as good as Dominic Beirne seems to think then he could get to the front at the top of the straight and be tough to run down. His overseas runs showed a horse that went strongly to the line.
The others:
Horses like 22-Eskimo Queen, 14-On A Jeune, 15-Scenic Shot will probably finish midfield.
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