FINAL 2007 SYSTEM REVIEW

With two and a half month of the year to go it seems a prudent time to cull some of our non-performers and give one or two others a go. Comments in black below are from the 27 May review and the red comments are the new changes.

Review of systems:

System 1: 9/27 at a slight loss is OK and it will stay with us. It's long term live performance is 47/129 (36%) at 41% profit and it's current performance is nothing that hasn't been seen before. Hasn't been able to lift its game and is now 14/51 at -30% POT so we'll suspend this one even though it's ahead long term.

System 2: It's only had 4 selections for 1 win so it's too early to tell. It can stay. Good call, that. It's now 5/10 though only at a small profit.

System 3: Only had 11 selections and its 36%/0% performance is below the long term 46%/26% live result so it can stay. Touch and go whether to cut this one adrift. Even though it should probably go I'll keep faith, as it has shown a profit year on year so far.

System 4: 0/6 means it can take a break. That's well outside expectation. Hasn't performed at all since being culled proving it was a good decision.

System 5: 1 selection for a miss so it can stay. Is now 1/2. Given how few selections it has I probably shouldn't have included it in the list but it can stay.

System 6: Only 5 selections so we'll stick with it. Another good call, as it's now 6/15 at 33% POT.

System 7: Currently 7/19 at a 37% loss but has a terrific long term record and I expect a turn around so it stays. Has improved to 14% loss and I'll keep it in.

System 8: Definitely can't complain about this one's performance. It's higher than expectation but not by too far. 7/11 at 66% profit is not too shabby.

System 9: Also going OK and I expect POT to improve a bit. Another with not enough selections but it's ahead so it will stay.

System 10: Been a very solid contributor returning a 36% profit from its 49 selections. It obviously stays. Has been off the boil since the last review with profit reduced to 15%. The variation is within expectation so I'm not going to can it.

System 11: Nothing to complain about with this one. It's been a good long term performer. Still going well but it would be nice to have more selections.

System 12: 12/19 and a 26% profit might look like it's overperforming but it's actually right on expectation. This one has had a poor 4/17 run since the review and is now in loss. I think I'll suspend it.

System 13: Ahhhhh. Disaster. What has happened here? I'd like to think that it can recover but it's so far below expectation or history that it seems unlikely so it can take a rest. Of course, since being suspended this one has gone on a terrific run of 23/44 at 40% profit including one streak of 7 wins in a row and one of 5. Will I bring it back from suspension? OK. OK. I will. With misgivings.

System 14: Another that's really put a dent in things. The trick with this system is that it's got a really good 41% strike rate but the short price of the winners has seen it deliver a 30% loss. I think that it can take a rest, too. A good call, as it's a dud.

System 15: 1/9 is waaay less than expected but it's only 16% behind and can make that up with one winner so we'll stick with it. Has picked up its strike rate but is now 25% behind. Its performance is within expectation so I'll keep it.

System 16: POT is a bit low but that should improve. And improve it has; to 50%.

System 17: I really thought that this one would be better that what it's delivered so it can go. A completey legless system, really. I was clearly way too optimistic including it in the first place.

System 18: Looking at its results you'd think that this one, aimed at 2YOs, would go also but it's been through runs like this before. A touch and go decision. It can go. Not many subsequent selections, as there haven't been many 2YO races, obviously.

System 19: This is actually my favourite system out of all of them but has only hit 1/7 with a $1.60 winner. It has a terrific 45%/90% result from more than two years of selections so I expect it to hit back. Has only added 2/3 since the review and is still behind but I'll keep it in.

System 20: Going well, a long way above expectation, so I expect it to cop a short losing run to bring it back to the mark but that's OK. Only 3/5 at 60% POT so it can stay.

Summary of the new systems added in the mid-year review:

System 21: After a slow start has recovered to be only -0.5% behind so it can stay.

System 22: Chugging along at a nice 4/5 at 36% profit so it's picking shorties but they're winning.

System 23: Another that started slowly, built up nicely but has dropped back a bit to be 3% ahead.

System 24: I probably made a mistake including this one, as it tends to work by having $10+ horses arrive every so often. Unfortunately, there hasn't been one for a while and it's a fair way behind so it can go.

System 25: Yet another slow starter that has hit back to be 9/28 at 34% profit.

Summary:

Systems 4, 13, 14, 17 and 18 will be replaced by five different systems 21, 22, 23, 24 & 25 from May 28, 2007. The overall results will include the systems that have been replaced. Systems 1, 12 and 24 can go. System 13 returns and I'll bring in Systems 26 and 27 from the reserves' bench.