2005 MELBOURNE CUP - PREVIEW

It's that time of the year again when supposed experts become mugs and mugs become heroes when they pick the winner of the Melbourne Cup.

Over the last 5 years the winners have come from gates 3, 7, 11, 14 & 22 so you don't need to worry about barrier too much. There always seems to be a roughy or two lob a place: Brew won in 2000 at $17/$5 with Second Coming ($6 place) 2nd and Persian Punch ($6) 3rd; in 2001 Give The Slip ran 2nd paying $12; in 2002 Mr Prudent ran 3rd paying $10, in 2003 when Makybe Diva won the first of her two Cups she beat home She's Archie $15 and Jardine's Lookout $13; and last year Zazzman somehow defied his previous aversion to wet tracks to grab 3rd paying $23 and killing all my multiples bets.

Given a dry track there are actually very few winning chances and, in my view, the winner will come from amongst the favourites. There has been a fair bit of controversy over the extra watering the track has received, which looks like it's been done to ensure that Makybe Diva and Vinnie Roe start. Rival trainers are somewhat up in arms about the perception of bias, which seems fair enough.

The great mare and defending champion, Makybe Diva, is going for a three-peat and will carry the weight of public support. She'll also carry the red, white and blue colours of Tony Santic. They represent a combination of Australia's colours and those of his native Croatia. She'll also carry 58kg, which is a heap of weight for a mare. She won the Cox Plate nicely last week but that was against a field of relative walkers. This race is actually quite a bit stronger (which underlines how poor our WFA horses are at present) and she'll have her work cut out. Unless it's wet I won't be including her anywhere on most of my multiples tickets.

Leica Falcon put in a strong effort in the Caulfield Cup, steaming home from last on the corner to run 5th. Many people thought he should have won that day. I didn't, as he poked along at the back and did bugger all, got a run through them at the right time and ran home. Watching the replays I don't think he picks up Railings even if they go another 200m. He is a lightweight hope, though, in the same way that Brew was in 2000.

After the Caulfield Cup I suggested that the quinella of Railings and Eye Popper would also run the quinella in the Melbourne Cup and nothing I've seen subsequently has made me change my mind.

Eye Popper's run in that race was unbelievable. To sit four wide for most of the trip, punch it out with the leaders, sprint clear with Mummify, head that horse, and then get picked up by Railings in the last couple of bounds was the biggest run by a losing horse in a Caulfield Cup I can remember (and that includes Shane Dye's rudderless effort on Veandercross in the 1992 Cup). What is more remarkable was that it was his first run from a spell. Eye Popper's Japanese form is exceptional. At his previous run he was 3rd under 58.5kg (WFA) in the 3200m Tenno Sho Spring (Group 1) with Makybe Diva in 7th spot. Prior to that he won a couple of Open Stakes races over 2200m and 3000m under 58kg and 56kg, and was then 2nd over 3018m in a G2 race with 57.5kg. His overall record reads 16 starts for 6 wins, 7 2nds and 1 3rd. He has the luxury weight of 54kg, meets Railings 2kg better and has drawn nicely in 9. The only issue is whether his jockey, Shinji Fujita, exhibits more patience than he did in the Caulfield Cup. He is my top pick in the race.

Railings is a real up and comer by super staying sire, Zabeel. He's only had 13 runs, which most old-timers would suggest is not enough to make him seasoned enough for the gruelling two miles of a Melbourne Cup. However, at his last three runs he's won the G3 Colin Stephen Quality, the G1 Metropolitan (coming from near last of 18 on the corner) and the G1 Caufield Cup when he just picked up Eye Popper. He took quite a while to settle in that race, which adds merit to the effort. John Hawkes has him right at the right time with the right form, right weight, right jockey and right barrier. He's my second pick.

For third I'll stick in Strasbourg who's rock hard fit and has had his preparation timed to perfection by the master, JB Cummings. He was drawing away from them on the line on Saturday and he looks like a horse that could sit near the pace and be tough to run down.

Complete rundown of the runners:

1-Makybe Diva as above. I think she's really up against it with the weight but I'm sure she'll run a big race.
2-Vinnie Roe is one of the best stayers ever to race here. He ran 4th under 59kg in 2002 behind stablemate, Media Puzzle, and ran 2nd in 2004 with 58kg behind Makybe Diva. He was a bit unlucky in both of those runs and I'm sure he'll run a big race again.
3-Distinction ran a nice 6th last year and has subsequently won a Group 2 race, which means his weight is up 2.5kg on last year. It would be a surprise if he featured.
4-Grey's Inn got lost in the Cox Plate and he'll be much better suited to the large track. Steps up to 2 miles for the first time but is by Zabeel so should stay all day. Would be a place chance at best.
5-Franklins Gardens looks the likely leader. These on-pace European stayers have done well previously, as demonstrated by Give The Slip, Second Coming and Jardine's Lookout. He looks to be well wieghted and well over the odds and I'll have him on some tickets.
6-Eye Popper is my top tip, as above.
7-Railings is my 2nd pick, as above.
8-Xcellent is certainly a talented racehorse with an amazing turn of foot. He's only had 8 runs and I'd prefer him to be a bit more seasoned and have performed well at a mile and a half. 20-1 seems under the odds to me.
9-Kindjhal definitely has a place hope. Doesn't seem to like finding the line too much, as shown by his 10 2nds from 25 starts with just 3 wins. With just 52.5kg he is very well placed and 125-1 looks way overs.
10-Hugs Dancer keeps running on but in weaker races. Would surprise me if he placed.
11-Demerger won the Adelaide Cup on her ear last preparation but hasn't come up that well since a spell. Fluker's hope only.
12-Dizelle looks up against it.
13-Lachlan River should stay the trip OK and ran well for 3rd on Saturday in the Mackinnon. Place chance at very best.
14-Portland Singha will also stay the trip OK but lacks the class of others. From the inside barrier should get a good run and might be a place chance.
15-Vouvray is officially sacked after her poor effort on Saturday. That said, she'll probably run 3rd and kill me.
16-On A Jeune is a reasonable stayer who steamed home to win the Geelong Cup. The form out of that race looks a bit suss and 50-1 looks about the right price.
17-Umbula is a tough on-pace runner who will be in a pretty good spot from his gate. Another with a fluker's hope of a place given he drops 4kg on his last start MV Gold Cup win.
18-Bazelle is an Auckland Cup winner by super sire, Zabeel. She was touched out in the MV Gold Cup and I'll stick her on my multiples tickets for a place.
19-Envoy ran 2nd in the Adelaide Cup but looks no hope here.
20-Rizon is a deadset plugger but a place would surprise.
21-Strasbourg is my 3rd pick, as above.
22-Leica Falcon, as above. I'll back against him, as I don't think he's seasoned enough for a race like this.
23-Mr Celebrity is a horse I've won a heap of money on. I'm not sure he's seasoned enough for this but does look like he'll get the trip and has no weight so I'll have him on my trifecta tickets.
24-Kamsky is trained by Bart Cummings, which is probably the only thing in his favour. 200-1 looks unders to me.

Summary of selections:

6-Eye Popper
7-Railings
21-Strasbourg
2-Vinnie Roe